Pixel42
Schrödinger's cat
I've been participating in a thread discussing psychic powers on another board (the general forum of a fan site, not a board specifically about the paranormal). A semi-professional psychic (tarot card reader) who has also been participating has sportingly agreed to a JREF-type test, to establish whether or not she can do successful readings over the internet. [She's quite open to the possibility that she's unconsciously picking up clues (i.e. using cold reading) to give her clients a cheap form of therapy, and there is nothing genuinely paranormal going on].
The test protocol we've come up with is:
1. Six volunteers will PM a trusted moderator with their first name, gender, age and location.
2. The mod will assign each an identifier (subject1, subject2 etc) and add two fictional subjects. He will then PM the list of identifiers and details to the psychic, who will do tarot card readings for each and post them, together with the identifier. She's agreed not to include anything which could be deduced from the minimal details she's been given on each subject, so the probability of the volunteers correctly identifying their own reading should be no better than chance.
3. Each volunteer will pick out the reading they think is theirs, and PM the mod with its identifier. The mod will post which subject picked which reading when he's received everyone's choice.
Where we need help is in calculating the probability of getting 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 correct choices out of 8 by chance (my maths is a little rusty), and deciding what the success criteria should be. Does anyone know what level of probability JREF require to be exceeded for an applicant to be deemed to have passed the preliminary test?
Any help would be appreciated.
I should make it clear that this is just a bunch of friends doing an interesting experiment in a spirit of genuine enquiry. A fair amount of trust is being placed in both the psychic and the moderator, so we understand that nothing will be conclusively proved, and our test isn't rigorous enough to be accepted by JREF as a real preliminary test. But a lot of interesting and thought-provoking discussion has already been generated, and we'd like to see it through.
The test protocol we've come up with is:
1. Six volunteers will PM a trusted moderator with their first name, gender, age and location.
2. The mod will assign each an identifier (subject1, subject2 etc) and add two fictional subjects. He will then PM the list of identifiers and details to the psychic, who will do tarot card readings for each and post them, together with the identifier. She's agreed not to include anything which could be deduced from the minimal details she's been given on each subject, so the probability of the volunteers correctly identifying their own reading should be no better than chance.
3. Each volunteer will pick out the reading they think is theirs, and PM the mod with its identifier. The mod will post which subject picked which reading when he's received everyone's choice.
Where we need help is in calculating the probability of getting 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 correct choices out of 8 by chance (my maths is a little rusty), and deciding what the success criteria should be. Does anyone know what level of probability JREF require to be exceeded for an applicant to be deemed to have passed the preliminary test?
Any help would be appreciated.
I should make it clear that this is just a bunch of friends doing an interesting experiment in a spirit of genuine enquiry. A fair amount of trust is being placed in both the psychic and the moderator, so we understand that nothing will be conclusively proved, and our test isn't rigorous enough to be accepted by JREF as a real preliminary test. But a lot of interesting and thought-provoking discussion has already been generated, and we'd like to see it through.
