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-   -   Covid-19 and Politics (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=342577)

shuttlt 11th May 2020 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13086120)
Where did you get 6 months from. Has anyone advocated 6 months of "Stay at Home" ?

I picked it because we have to talk about some timescale. I assumed you thought some number of months of social distancing would likely be necessary. Pick a different figure if you like.

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13086120)
IMO there are better ways of managing the spread of Coronavirus than allowing people to travel all over the country to socalise in whatever sized groups they wish. Social distancing has been compromised and will inevitably continue to be so and so those large groups of people congregating in popular tourist locations will act as vectors for disease both there, and in the places they stop along the way to refuel and buy food and drink.

So long as people are social distancing, it surely doesn't matter too much whether they are social distancing in the street near me, or on a hill near you.

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13086120)
Again with the 6 months, why ?

By all means, suggest an amount of time that you think social distancing may be needed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13086120)
Lots of other countries have Coronavirus under far better control than the UK and/or have leaders who couldn't give a toss about the health and welfare of their population and are worried about the economy. I hope the UK doesn't fall into the latter category.

Worrying about the economy has nothing to do with whether they are worried about the welfare of workers. One would have to be ideologically possessed to insist on only factoring one of those into the calculation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13086120)
If steps are to be taken soon to start to ease lockdown restrictions then there may be more prudent ones than "Go back to work on Monday Wednesday and go wherever you like".

We are going to have to go back to work at some point and the longer we wait the more lives will be ruined from the cost of it. Without a lot of cost benefit analysis that we probably lack the data for, we are just throwing ideological positions back and forth.

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13086120)
That's a rather large if and presupposes that social distancing as defined by the UK government is a panacea. IMO it's probably still better not to have people moving around the country spreading or contracting the virus as they go and congregating in large numbers in public spaces.

There is no panacea short of welding everybodies door shut and posting sterilized food rations through our letter boxes. Anything that involves us going outside is a compromise. If we accept that we are going to have some degree of going outside, then we have accepted that some degree of freedom is worth some increased spread of the virus, we are just haggling over how much.

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13086120)
"Pretty good" man not be good enough in the face of a pandemic.

What do you mean by "not good enough"? Why is going outside acceptable at all if we are that afraid? Bring in the army and lock things down like it was 1970s Belfast.

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13086120)
There won't be many Welsh people hiking there, there will however be people who live there who may come into contact with those infected English people, or with things they have touched.

If those welsh people are social distancing then it seems unlikely there will be much infection. The virus is clearly out there, and I'm not saying it's zero risk, but the corner shops near me in North London seem to have avoided being infected despite dealing with plague riddled English all day long. Doubtless some shopkeepers have, but again... it's not as bad as you're making out.

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13086120)
It only took a couple of people coming back from Italy to start one of the worst early infection hotspots in the UK here in South Wales.

yes, but people weren't social distancing then, were they? If people in Wales are social distancing then a few days of the Welsh police telling the English to go away isn't going to do much of anything.

Captain_Swoop 11th May 2020 09:22 AM

Now we should wear masks on public transport and in some shops but not at work in offices or retail.
Also a face covering is not the same as face masks, such as those worn by healthcare workers which "must continue to be reserved for those who need it".

You can meet one person from outside your household a day but keep social distancing.

Keep your windows open.


So that's all clear.

Garrison 11th May 2020 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darat (Post 13086226)
Quite seriously - do you use public transport? Because the estimate for public transport is that it will have to run at 10 to 15% of pre-virus capacity to maintain social distancing.

How is that going to work for you?

Well I drive so I would be fine, and I could sort of work from home, though given space and hardware issues its far from ideal. However I've got colleagues who can't work from home and use public transport, including a shuttle bus that ferries people to the commercial estate where we work. Basically my company had to furlough people because the clients they work with had shutdown, so until those clients gear back up they aren't going to voluntarily reactivate people. All I really want is some clarity on what the next step is.

Mojo 11th May 2020 11:19 AM

Boris has just been asked when the public can expect some sort of clarity in what they’re being told. He responded by waffling.

Darat 11th May 2020 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ceptimus (Post 13086259)
English golf courses to reopen on Wednesday. https://www.nationalclubgolfer.com/n...ate-confirmed/

Apparently, golfers aren't supposed to touch anything other than their own equipment and ball. So they can't touch the flagpoles or the sides of the hole when retrieving their ball, nor any rakes in bunkers or similar.
I don't think many golfers will properly adhere to the guidelines, but I suppose there must be a lot of Tory supporters that play golf.

Anyway, providing we all stay fully alert I'm sure we don't really need to worry about anything else. :rolleyes:


And they will only be able to play with one other person not from their household.

p0lka 11th May 2020 11:40 AM

Make it vague, then the subsequent covid outbreaks aren't the governments fault, but the fault of those not following the rules. The economy is important.

Nessie 11th May 2020 11:43 AM

I kind of get why the Tories wanted rid of immigrants. But they now appear to be going after the elderly, who usually vote for them and the working class, who recently started to vote for them again.

Mojo 11th May 2020 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ceptimus (Post 13086259)
English golf courses to reopen on Wednesday. https://www.nationalclubgolfer.com/n...ate-confirmed/

Apparently, golfers aren't supposed to touch anything other than their own equipment and ball.


Yes, they shouldn’t be interfering with each other’s.

Garrison 11th May 2020 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nessie (Post 13086458)
I kind of get why the Tories wanted rid of immigrants. But they now appear to be going after the elderly, who usually vote for them and the working class, who recently started to vote for them again.

Well be fair, they pretty much knew they might have conned the working class once but there was no way Johnson could get through five years without showing his true colours, and with Labour having a leader who can apparently go five minutes without putting his foot in his mouth ,the Tories have clearly decided they might as well try and save some of that money they're spending on workers wages regardless of whether it kills off working class voters.

p0lka 11th May 2020 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13085919)
Covid-19 alert level = R + number of new infections.
apparently

That makes no sense.
R for covid is 3 (apparently), the goal is to get R to less than 1.

R + new infections breaks the **** out of the equation. Even if you swap out the plus sign for some other operator like maybe it's an exponent, it still doesn't work. There's no way you are getting to less than 1 that reflects reality with that equation. The covid-19 alert level would be 1 + lots of people.

Matthew Best 11th May 2020 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim (Post 13085910)
On the plus side, it's increasingly difficult by the day to imagine a scenario in which the Tories win the next election.

Unfortunately I find it all too easy to imagine.

I have been told I'm a bit of a "glass half empty" guy, mind you.

Ulf Nereng 11th May 2020 09:20 PM

All they have to do is switch out BoJo with someone else. They can then say that it's a completely new party, one which has no responsibility for anything previous Tories has done. Unless they were good things.

Nessie 12th May 2020 01:11 AM

What is it about security guards that makes that the highest mortality job?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...ing20april2020

"Compared with the rate among people of the same sex and age in England and Wales, men working in the lowest skilled occupations had the highest rate of death involving COVID-19, with 21.4 deaths per 100,000 males (225 deaths); men working as security guards had one of the highest rates, with 45.7 deaths per 100,000 (63 deaths)."

Is it the job, or the men who do the job why the rate is so high?

Pixel42 12th May 2020 01:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng (Post 13086922)
All they have to do is switch out BoJo with someone else. They can then say that it's a completely new party, one which has no responsibility for anything previous Tories has done. Unless they were good things.

The scary thing is Johnson is actually preferable to any of the alternatives. He may be a lazy lying bully, but he has no ideology apart from "whatever is best for Boris Johnson". The rest of them are far right crackpots.

McHrozni 12th May 2020 01:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nessie (Post 13087009)
What is it about security guards that makes that the highest mortality job?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...ing20april2020

"Compared with the rate among people of the same sex and age in England and Wales, men working in the lowest skilled occupations had the highest rate of death involving COVID-19, with 21.4 deaths per 100,000 males (225 deaths); men working as security guards had one of the highest rates, with 45.7 deaths per 100,000 (63 deaths)."

Is it the job, or the men who do the job why the rate is so high?

It could be a simple coincidence. Those two samples are both quite small.

It could also be other things - how are smoking rates among security guards? Do they feel pressured to come to work while sick?
Another thing is viral load, there is a strong dose-dependent response for Covid-19, the more viral particles you come into contact with the more likely more adverse outcomes are (this is not uncommon, by itself).

Another possibility is that security guards, by the virtue of their exposure to many more people, are also tested more often. They don't die any more often than the general public but Covid-19 is more likely to be diagnosed if they do die.

It's probably a combination of all of those of course.

McHrozni

Captain_Swoop 12th May 2020 02:15 AM

When told workers were left confused thinking they had to go back on Monday, only to be told it was Wednesday after many already crammed into Tubes, Matt Hancock tells the BBC: “I think if that’s the biggest complaint the Today programme has, then I think things are fine”.
He sounds like he's just about had enough, he's about 8 seconds from shouting ‘you don’t even understand anything’, slamming the door and stomping off to go and see his friends.

Captain_Swoop 12th May 2020 02:19 AM

Both Dominic Cummings and Stanley Johnson took advantage of the good weather at the weekend to cross the country to visit relatives.
In Cummings case this involved traveling from London to Durham and back.
Both journeys against the explicit advice given by the govt.

Nessie 12th May 2020 02:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by McHrozni (Post 13087016)
It could be a simple coincidence. Those two samples are both quite small.

It could also be other things - how are smoking rates among security guards? Do they feel pressured to come to work while sick?
Another thing is viral load, there is a strong dose-dependent response for Covid-19, the more viral particles you come into contact with the more likely more adverse outcomes are (this is not uncommon, by itself).

Another possibility is that security guards, by the virtue of their exposure to many more people, are also tested more often. They don't die any more often than the general public but Covid-19 is more likely to be diagnosed if they do die.

It's probably a combination of all of those of course.

McHrozni

If anything, security guards standing outside shops or checking now empty premises are less exposed. None work at clubs and bars any more and that was the highest risk of exposure.

It will take years to unravel this.

Nessie 12th May 2020 02:31 AM

How the virus arrived in Scotland;

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/new...box=1589229055

"CORONAVIRUS was brought to Scotland at a global Nike conference in February but the Scottish Government failed to tell the public, a new report claims.
It's claimed the deadly bug was brought to Scottish soil after an event held in Edinburgh with over 70 Nike employees from around the world in attendance on February 26 and 27 at the Hilton Carlton Hotel.
A BBC investigation has found that at least 25 people linked to this one event are confirmed to have been infected, with eight living in Scotland"

Garrison 12th May 2020 02:44 AM

So on the one hand it appears the go back to work message was aimed at construction and engineering, on the other hand it is being reported the Chancellor is going to announce that the furlough payments will be cut to 60% when the current scheme runs out in June. My employer currently tops up the 80% figure to 90% so it will be interesting to see what happens next. Obvious point is that even at say 70% its still vastly more than I would get from unemployment benefits.

Squeegee Beckenheim 12th May 2020 03:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garrison (Post 13086219)
It's great to talk about getting people back to work but what about all those people like myself on furlough? Is it a case of we all toddle off back to work on Wednesday and tough luck if your employer decides to just start firing people because they haven't got any revenue coming in?

Or what if you don't think your employer has done enough to make your working environment safe and you refuse to go back to work? Can they fire you then?

Squeegee Beckenheim 12th May 2020 03:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matthew Best (Post 13086731)
Unfortunately I find it all too easy to imagine.

I have been told I'm a bit of a "glass half empty" guy, mind you.

Don't get me wrong - I can still imagine it. It just seems less likely the more Starmer actually acts like a real leader of a real political party, and the more Johnson and the Tories act like, well, Johnson and the Tories.

And, I mean, "second-worst death toll in the world under the Tories" is one hell of a campaign slogan.

Darat 12th May 2020 03:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13087050)
When told workers were left confused thinking they had to go back on Monday, only to be told it was Wednesday after many already crammed into Tubes, Matt Hancock tells the BBC: “I think if that’s the biggest complaint the Today programme has, then I think things are fine”.
He sounds like he's just about had enough, he's about 8 seconds from shouting ‘you don’t even understand anything’, slamming the door and stomping off to go and see message his friends.

FTFY - your age is showing! :D

Darat 12th May 2020 03:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim (Post 13087081)
Don't get me wrong - I can still imagine it. It just seems less likely the more Starmer actually acts like a real leader of a real political party, and the more Johnson and the Tories act like, well, Johnson and the Tories.

And, I mean, "second-worst death toll in the world under the Tories" is one hell of a campaign slogan.

True I can see the campaign materials:

"Second-worst death toll in the world under the Tories, there's still more to do!"

Of the Tory party.......

Darat 12th May 2020 03:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim (Post 13087078)
Or what if you don't think your employer has done enough to make your working environment safe and you refuse to go back to work? Can they fire you then?

Given the chronic under funding of the H&S exec for over a decade it is not as if you can even report your employers and expect them to be inspected.

Captain_Swoop 12th May 2020 03:55 AM

In the last 24 hours government ministers have:

Made it illegal to drive to Wales
Stated, wrongly, that Covid-19 is in the water supply
Made it easier to see other people's parents than your own
Issued guidance about business that the London Chamber of Commerce have instructed us to ignore
Issued guidance about lockdown that 3 of the 4 nations in the Union have instructed us to ignore
Released advice experts were not given a chance to review and approve
Said the announcement had to be on Sunday so it could start Monday then said they meant Wednesday
Said we must go to work then said we must not travel to work
Blamed the public for not understanding them
Appeared on TV to explain the rules, got them wrong, and had to be corrected by Piers Morgan
Appeared in Parliament to explain the rules, got them wrong, and had to be corrected by the opposition

Captain_Swoop 12th May 2020 03:56 AM

Don’t forget, you can spend all day with your work colleagues, but can’t sit in the park with them afterwards

Captain_Swoop 12th May 2020 03:58 AM

It wasn’t very long ago we were told only masks with a filter would be of any use, now a cut up sock is just fine
Make sure you wash them first

Darat 12th May 2020 04:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13087052)
Both Dominic Cummings and Stanley Johnson took advantage of the good weather at the weekend to cross the country to visit relatives.
In Cummings case this involved traveling from London to Durham and back.
Both journeys against the explicit advice given by the govt.

I'm sure Cummings will be offering his resignation....

Garrison 12th May 2020 05:00 AM

In a shocking development the Chancellor has announced the future of the furlough scheme in clear easy to understand terms:

UK furlough scheme extended by four months

He will have to go, there's no place in the Johnson government for a minister going around announcing clear, rational policies...

Darat 12th May 2020 05:07 AM

Quote:

...snip... BBC news site...

The UK scheme to pay wages of workers on leave because of coronavirus will be extended to October, Chancellor Rishi Sunak said.

He said the government backed workers and companies going into the lockdown, and would support them coming out.

Mr Sunak confirmed that employees will continue to receive 80% of their monthly wages up to £2,500.

But he said the government will ask companies to "start sharing" the cost of the scheme from August onwards.

Mr Sunak rejected suggestions some people might get "addicted" to furlough if it was extended.

Some 7.5 million workers are now covered by the scheme, up from 6.3 million last week, he said.

The chancellor told the Commons that from August, the scheme would continue for all sectors and regions of the country but with greater flexibility to support the transition back to work, he said.

Employers currently using the scheme would be able to bring furloughed employees back part-time.

...snip...
They had to do this or they'd have to have changed legislation regarding insolvency etc. if they didn't want a huge wave of companies going into liquidation*. But I was starting to think they could be so utterly stupid as to do neither. And of course the move to be able to maintain salary but have employees work part time is very good news. At the moment any one furloughed is pretty much 100% stopped from doing any work for the company.


(*To put it plainly without all the legal and business speak - at the moment many companies are trading at a significant loss, cash flow has almost become entirely one way for many, if he didn't announce that this scheme would continue for such a period of time many boards would have had a legal obligation to declare their company insolvent as they'd no longer be able to say they had reasonable expectations to cover anticipated and already owed debts... eventually.)

Darat 12th May 2020 05:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garrison (Post 13087160)
In a shocking development the Chancellor has announced the future of the furlough scheme in clear easy to understand terms:

UK furlough scheme extended by four months

He will have to go, there's no place in the Johnson government for a minister going around announcing clear, rational policies...

Yeah - he really does seem to stick out like a sore thumb doesn't he? I have to say I have been very impressed with him throughout this, literally the only member of the senior government that seems to be at all competent.

That said it's when he's got to start to make expenditure balance with income again that we will see his real ability.

Garrison 12th May 2020 05:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darat (Post 13087165)
Yeah - he really does seem to stick out like a sore thumb doesn't he? I have to say I have been very impressed with him throughout this, literally the only member of the senior government that seems to be at all competent.

That said it's when he's got to start to make expenditure balance with income again that we will see his real ability.

Quite true, but I think he said at some point that austerity can't feature in the recovery of the economy. Whatever does happen I will take some small crumb of comfort in that I know where I stand financially ATM, while I try to figure out of its okay for me to meet my elderly mother in a garden centre so long as she's carrying a set of golf clubs...

Mojo 12th May 2020 08:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13085031)
“Stay alert by working at home if you can”
Because working at work makes you lazy and not likely to be as alert?
What does this garbage mean??!


I assume that the slogan was decided on before anyone had decided what the advice was going to be. “Stay alert” sounds nice and WWII-ish to tie in with the VE Day anniversary celebrations. I don’t think there was too much worry about what it might be supposed to mean.

Nessie 12th May 2020 09:22 AM

Made free to read, probably because it needs to be shared as much as possible. Excess deaths;

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-...3-955839e06441

UK 50,000 (of which 9000 in London)
USA 30,800 (of which 17,800 in NY)
Spain 32,000
Italy 24,500
France 22,100
Germany 4,800

Captain_Swoop 12th May 2020 09:29 AM

MOSCOW (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov has been hospitalized for coronavirus.

Garrison 12th May 2020 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nessie (Post 13087492)
Made free to read, probably because it needs to be shared as much as possible. Excess deaths;

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-...3-955839e06441

UK 50,000 (of which 9000 in London)
USA 30,800 (of which 17,800 in NY)
Spain 32,000
Italy 24,500
France 22,100
Germany 4,800

Also A BBC article detailing the various numbers being used in the UK:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52623141

wobs 12th May 2020 12:30 PM

BMJ not impressed with government:
https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/05/11...mlpZhMYxVTjv7I

Quote:

For those who are still not convinced that a cautious approach to easing lockdown is required, it is worth noting that the Rt in Wuhan at this stage of lockdown was below 0.2.

P.J. Denyer 12th May 2020 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng (Post 13086922)
All they have to do is switch out BoJo with someone else. They can then say that it's a completely new party, one which has no responsibility for anything previous Tories has done. Unless they were good things.

Yeah, it worked last time. I have literally been told by someone that they voted for Boris (not Uxbridge so they voted for the local Tory) as a protest vote against the last government...:mad::mad::eek:

P.J. Denyer 12th May 2020 04:30 PM

I don't want to jump to conclusions, but I'm starting to think that maybe putting the country in the hands of an incredibly lazy after dinner speaker with a history of lies and spectacularly expensive failures might not have been fantastically smart after all.


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