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-   -   Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy questioned as Stockholm death toll mounts (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=343214)

applecorped 4th April 2020 04:58 AM

Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy questioned as Stockholm death toll mounts
 
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21L23R

A spike in novel coronavirus infections and deaths in Stockholm has raised questions about Sweden’s decision to fight the outbreak without resorting to the lockdowns that have left much of Europe at a standstill.

William Parcher 4th April 2020 05:27 AM

Wait a minute.....

Conservatives don't want lockdown.

lionking 4th April 2020 05:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 13044536)
Wait a minute.....

Conservatives don't want lockdown.

Excellent observation.

Applecorped are you calling for a full, commie lockdown of the US?

Giordano 4th April 2020 06:19 AM

I am so confused. I thought liberals favored strong lockdowns to destroy the economy and embarrass conservatives. Probably to also increase the numbers of abortions too. Or something like that... But, but...

dann 4th April 2020 07:14 AM

It is true. Of the four Nordic countries, Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden, the Swedes chose the U.S. American/British model.
You can see how that turned out in this comparison:
The Nordic divide on coronavirus: Which country has the right strategy? (The Local, March 31, 2020)

And it's been getting worse for Sweden since then!
See the development here: https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-...de-og-indlagte (TV2, April 4, 2020)
Scroll down to Døde siden første dødsfald = Deaths since the firs casualty. You can see a comparison between the Nordic countries and the USA. The latter is about to overtake both Italy and Spain!

Notice also the curve for Dødsfald I Danmark/Døde per dag = Deaths in Denmark/Deaths per Day, which appears to be not only flattening now but actually falling.

Are you enjoying yourself, applecorped!

dann 4th April 2020 08:14 AM

Norway is doing fine, and Iceland, too, but among the Nordic countries, the Faroe Islands reign supreme.

dann 4th April 2020 08:36 AM

When liberal means conservative
 
It just occurred to me that applecorped actually didn't understand his title for this thread, Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy questioned as Stockholm death toll mounts, which he got from Reuters. However, Reuters uses the word liberal the way we use it in Europe, i.e. it does not at all mean left-wing, the way applecorped seems to think. On the contrary, actually, it means conservative as in the name of the conservative Danish party Venstre:

Quote:

Venstre (Danish pronunciation: [ˈvɛnstʁɐ], literally "left"), full name Venstre, Danmarks Liberale Parti (English: Left, Denmark's Liberal Party), is a conservative-liberal,[2][3][4] agrarian[10] political party in Denmark.
Venstre (Wikipedia)

And it's true, of course, that Sweden is doing poorly: Sweden sees an 18% spike in coronavirus deaths in one day, bringing total to 333, as experts question liberal pandemic strategy and warn: 'We cannot head into complete chaos' (Daily Mirror, April 4, 2020)

Way to go, applecorped! We need as many warnings against that kind of 'liberals' as we can get! :sdl: (It hasn't gone unnoticed how fond you are of laughing dogs!)

Baylor 4th April 2020 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dann (Post 13044640)
Norway is doing fine, and Iceland, too, but among the Nordic countries, the Faroe Islands reign supreme.

As of this post, Norway has more confirmed corona virus cases per capita than the US: 1 confirmed case for every ~950 persons in Norway. 1 confirmed case for every ~1,050 persons in the US

novaphile 4th April 2020 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dann (Post 13044603)
It is true. Of the four Nordic countries, Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden, the Swedes chose the U.S. American/British model.
You can see how that turned out in this comparison:
The Nordic divide on coronavirus: Which country has the right strategy? (The Local, March 31, 2020)

And it's been getting worse for Sweden since then!
See the development here: https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-...de-og-indlagte (TV2, April 4, 2020)
Scroll down to Døde siden første dødsfald = Deaths since the firs casualty. You can see a comparison between the Nordic countries and the USA. The latter is about to overtake both Italy and Spain!

Notice also the curve for Dødsfald I Danmark/Døde per dag = Deaths in Denmark/Deaths per Day, which appears to be not only flattening now but actually falling.

Are you enjoying yourself, applecorped!

Hmm... I added Australia to that chart, and we're currently sneaking along between Norway and Finland.

(New Zealand is bumping around on the bottom, like a catfish, keep up the good work New Zealand!)

Ryokan 4th April 2020 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baylor (Post 13045226)
As of this post, Norway has more confirmed corona virus cases per capita than the US: 1 confirmed case for every ~950 persons in Norway. 1 confirmed case for every ~1,050 persons in the US

That's mostly because, unlike the USA, Norway has done aggressive testing.

As per Worldometer, Norway has tested 19 528 per million citizens, while the USA has tested 4 933.

I think a more important number is numer of deaths, with Norway having 11 deaths per million citizens, and having quite stable numbers, while the USA has 26 deaths per million citizens and rising.

The other Scandinavian countries have 37 deaths per million citizens in Sweden and 28 in Denmark.

It was looking really bad at the start of the pandemic, with Norway's amount of confirmed cases rivaling those of countries like Italy and Spain, but it wasn't followed by the massive amounts of deaths we saw in those countries.

It was the aggressive testing that made it look so bad, but it was also that testing that made us come out ahead of the curve.

Ryokan 4th April 2020 08:26 PM

I might also add that when Reuters says liberal pandemic strategy, they don't mean that it comes from liberal political ideology. And for the Americans on the board, it certainly doesn't mean it comes from left wing politics.

No more than being liberal with sauce on your meatballs means you follow liberalism or left wing ideology.

Words can have different meaning in different contexts.

Childlike Empress 4th April 2020 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ryokan (Post 13045396)
It was the aggressive testing that made it look so bad, but it was also that testing that made us come out ahead of the curve.


I doubt the latter. I more think it is due to your health care system not being forced into EU austerity (aka "neoliberal") politics like Italy and Spain were.

Childlike Empress 4th April 2020 08:49 PM

There is this "nice" 2011 letter even published in English demanding things from Italy that led to a 15% reduction in hospital beds since then, according to German language research entitled (translated) "Merkel, Draghi and Schäuble share guilt for the deaths in Italy".

Meadmaker 4th April 2020 09:06 PM

Of course the OP article uses "liberal" in the literal sense of the word, which means basically "free", or "less restricted". i.e. a "liberal" policy allows more freedom than its opposite, which would not be "conservative". The opposite of "liberal" might be "authoritarian", "restrictive", or something similar.

So, Sweden has imposed few restrictions on activity due to the coronavirus. It has a liberal coronavirus policy.

This use of "liberal" sometimes confuses people. I frequently refer to the fact that the United States has extremely liberal gun control laws. In other words, the United States places very few restrictions on the right to own and use guns.

It's somewhat unclear whether applecorped understood that when he posted the OP. His rather brief posting style forces the rest of us into speculation at times.

a_unique_person 4th April 2020 09:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Giordano (Post 13044564)
I am so confused. I thought liberals favored strong lockdowns to destroy the economy and embarrass conservatives. Probably to also increase the numbers of abortions too. Or something like that... But, but...

They want all of the above.

dann 4th April 2020 11:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Childlike Empress (Post 13045416)
I doubt the latter. I more think it is due to your health care system not being forced into EU austerity (aka "neoliberal") politics like Italy and Spain were.


You can doubt it, but it's the truth. Large-scale testing combined with isolation, of course, of people who are tested positive is what makes all the difference.
That is also the way that one small corner of the Kingdom of Denmark managed to keep the virus in check.
It does require access to the tools of testing, however. The Faroe Islands had those! :)

dann 4th April 2020 11:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ryokan (Post 13045396)
That's mostly because, unlike the USA, Norway has done aggressive testing.

As per Worldometer, Norway has tested 19 528 per million citizens, while the USA has tested 4 933.


I applaud your attempt to explain this to Baylor, but he doesn't want to understand the difference it makes. For everybody else those numbers say it all.

applecorped 5th April 2020 12:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Meadmaker (Post 13045433)
Of course the OP article uses "liberal" in the literal sense of the word, which means basically "free", or "less restricted". i.e. a "liberal" policy allows more freedom than its opposite, which would not be "conservative". The opposite of "liberal" might be "authoritarian", "restrictive", or something similar.

So, Sweden has imposed few restrictions on activity due to the coronavirus. It has a liberal coronavirus policy.

This use of "liberal" sometimes confuses people. I frequently refer to the fact that the United States has extremely liberal gun control laws. In other words, the United States places very few restrictions on the right to own and use guns.

It's somewhat unclear whether applecorped understood that when he posted the OP. His rather brief posting style forces the rest of us into speculation at times.

Yes, one wonders if certain readers understood.


Or not. It's a somewhat niggardly interpretation.

dann 5th April 2020 12:12 AM

:sdl:

applecorped 5th April 2020 12:19 AM

liberal disbursement of traps retards beaver growth in Sweden

https://www.google.com/amp/s/api.nat...ld-wild-cities

Meadmaker 5th April 2020 12:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by applecorped (Post 13045503)
liberal disbursement of traps retards beaver growth in Sweden

https://www.google.com/amp/s/api.nat...ld-wild-cities

:D

lionking 5th April 2020 12:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by applecorped (Post 13045498)
Yes, one wonders if certain readers understood.


Or not. It's a somewhat niggardly interpretation.

Massive backdown noted.

dann 5th April 2020 02:50 AM

Quote:

The number of Swedish deaths rose to 373 on Saturday, up 12% from Friday. That brings the rate per million in Scandinavia’s biggest economy to 36, compared with 29 in Denmark and 9 in Norway, where much tougher lockdowns are in place.
Prognosis: Sweden Girds for Thousands of Deaths Amid Laxer Virus Policy (Bloomberg, April 5, 2020)

Coronavirus: Sweden (Worldometers)

In this context, lax is a much better word than liberal, less ambiguous.

dann 7th April 2020 06:14 AM

Quote:

Sweden took the unusual step of not implementing a lockdown to halt the spread of the coronavirus.
The country urged people to practice social distancing, but left places like shops and restaurants open, breaking the model followed by countries across Europe and around the world.
Sweden has 477 deaths from the virus so far, but Stefan Löfven, the prime minister, is now warning that thousands will die from COVID-19 and the parliament may bring in more restrictive measures.
Sweden, which refused to implement a coronavirus lockdown, has so far avoided a mass outbreak. Now it's bracing for a potential surge in deaths. (Business Insider, April 7, 2020)

Unfortunately, what the Business Insider published one hour ago isn't true. Sweden has at least 591 deaths from coronavirus, 114 more since yesterday:

I alt 591 personer er dermed døde i Sverige, rapporterer SVT. (DR.dk, April 7, 2020)

angrysoba 7th April 2020 06:52 PM

Yeah, I noticed a friend of mine posted an article about how Sweden seems to be doing all right, maybe the rest of the world got it wrong...

...then I looked at the number of deaths in Sweden, and yes, 20% increase in one day, so basically they are doubling in 2 or 3 days. That could become a horrific number very quickly and with a lead time of two weeks or so before any mediation takes effect, I worry about where that could lead.

Arcade22 7th April 2020 06:56 PM

Sweden is cruel and uncaring country where the strong become stronger and the weak are weeded out.

Arcade22 7th April 2020 07:29 PM

Unfortunately they managed to infect people in over half of the "old-folks homes" in Stockholm and over 150 people died in them.

Note that deaths can take multiple days to be reported in, so you have to be careful in looking at the latest numbers since they will most likely be revised.

uke2se 8th April 2020 01:39 AM

The Swedish government is listening to the scientists in charge of coordinating the government's response. We don't know wether their approach is right or not yet. The number of deaths in Sweden as compared with our neighbours can be explained by Sweden being a week or so ahead of Norway and Denmark in the course of the pandemic.

If or when things get worse, the government has said that more restrictions will be put in place. In a few months we will know if the response was good enough or not. Nobody has the answers, so I feel it's unfair to say that the Swedish government is definitely wrong here. I also think it's a bit morbid to seemingly cheer on the number of deaths in Sweden.

angrysoba 8th April 2020 02:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uke2se (Post 13049011)
The Swedish government is listening to the scientists in charge of coordinating the government's response. We don't know wether their approach is right or not yet. The number of deaths in Sweden as compared with our neighbours can be explained by Sweden being a week or so ahead of Norway and Denmark in the course of the pandemic.


I felt the same way about the UK response, assuming that the government was receiving good counsel from the chief scientist and medical officer, despite the fact that there were dissenting voices saying that UK government should implement stronger measures.

Now things look really bad in the UK, and any measures that have been implemented will take weeks to have an effect. This is why I worry about Sweden's policies being out of step with the rest of the world.

Quote:

Originally Posted by uke2se (Post 13049011)
If or when things get worse, the government has said that more restrictions will be put in place. In a few months we will know if the response was good enough or not. Nobody has the answers, so I feel it's unfair to say that the Swedish government is definitely wrong here. I also think it's a bit morbid to seemingly cheer on the number of deaths in Sweden.

Yes, it would be absolutely morbid to cheer on the number of deaths. I scrolled up to see who had been doing it, and I couldn't find anyone. Which posts did you have in mind?

uke2se 8th April 2020 02:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by angrysoba (Post 13049040)
I felt the same way about the UK response, assuming that the government was receiving good counsel from the chief scientist and medical officer, despite the fact that there were dissenting voices saying that UK government should implement stronger measures.

Now things look really bad in the UK, and any measures that have been implemented will take weeks to have an effect. This is why I worry about Sweden's policies being out of step with the rest of the world.

Believe me, I worry as well. I just don't worry about Sweden chosing a different path than the rest of the world. I worry that we're chosing the wrong path, no matter who are or aren't doing the same thing. However, I would worry equally much if we had chosen another path, more akin to our neighbours.


Quote:

Originally Posted by angrysoba (Post 13049040)
Yes, it would be absolutely morbid to cheer on the number of deaths. I scrolled up to see who had been doing it, and I couldn't find anyone. Which posts did you have in mind?

I don't want to pick a fight over it. A couple of posts in the beginning of the thread strikes me as crowing about the number of deaths in Sweden in an attempt to 'own' another poster. I might have misunderstand the purpose of the post, but it struck me as in poor taste.

Planigale 8th April 2020 03:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dann (Post 13045563)
Coronavirus: Sweden (Worldometers)

In this context, lax is a much better word than liberal, less ambiguous.

Especially as lax means salmon. It implies something fishy is going on?

Planigale 8th April 2020 03:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arcade22 (Post 13048831)
Sweden is cruel and uncaring country where the strong become stronger and the weak are weeded out.

Been watching Vikings?

dann 8th April 2020 03:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Planigale (Post 13049069)
Especially as lax means salmon. It implies something fishy is going on?


No, for the (very beneficial!) salmon-coronavirus connection, you will have to go to the Faroe Islands! :)

dann 8th April 2020 04:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uke2se (Post 13049011)
The Swedish government is listening to the scientists in charge of coordinating the government's response. We don't know wether their approach is right or not yet. The number of deaths in Sweden as compared with our neighbours can be explained by Sweden being a week or so ahead of Norway and Denmark in the course of the pandemic.


Unfortunately for the Swedes, the lead scientist is an idiot! I would advise you to take a look at the graphs: Døde siden første dødsfald: Nyeste corona-tal fra Danmark og verden: Så mange er smittede, døde og indlagte (TV2, April 8, 2020)
You can compare the Scandinavian countries with each other and also with China, Korea, Spain, Italy and the USA. But you will have to take into account that Sweden is actually doing worse than it appears to be since their way of calculating the death toll is a little ... odd. (By the way, the USA just overtook Italy!)

Quote:

If or when things get worse, the government has said that more restrictions will be put in place. In a few months, we will know if the response was good enough or not. Nobody has the answers, so I feel it's unfair to say that the Swedish government is definitely wrong here. I also think it's a bit morbid to seemingly cheer on the number of deaths in Sweden.

"If or when"??! Things already got worse! And "in a few months" it will be much too late to do anything about it. Norway is obviously doing much better than Denmark and Sweden with its policy of testing as many as possible, and Sweden worst of all. You seem to be more concerned about the respect that the Swedish government is losing than about the Swedes dying because of its lax coronavirus policies.

uke2se 8th April 2020 05:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dann (Post 13049105)
Unfortunately for the Swedes, the lead scientist is an idiot! I would advise you to take a look at the graphs: Døde siden første dødsfald: Nyeste corona-tal fra Danmark og verden: Så mange er smittede, døde og indlagte (TV2, April 8, 2020)
You can compare the Scandinavian countries with each other and also with China, Korea, Spain, Italy and the USA. But you will have to take into account that Sweden is actually doing worse than it appears to be since their way of calculating the death toll is a little ... odd. (By the way, the USA just overtook Italy!)




"If or when"??! Things already got worse! And "in a few months" it will be much too late to do anything about it. Norway is obviously doing much better than Denmark and Sweden with its policy of testing as many as possible, and Sweden worst of all. You seem to be more concerned about the respect that the Swedish government is losing than about the Swedes dying because of its lax coronavirus policies.

No, I'm not concerned about any loss of respect. I'm concerned that we're using the right approach, but I'm not confident enough one way or another to exclaim that our leading epedemiologist is an 'idiot' or that we need to drasticly change course.

There is an ongoing press conference where Tegnell, our chief epedemiologist claims that Sweden's r-value is 1, meaning we have started to flatten the curve in reported cases. According to the government, suggested social distansing is working. A plurality of the deaths come from retirement homes in the Stockholm region where the virus have taken root amongst the residents. The same problem does not currently exist elsewhere in Sweden.

ETA: Just to add, I've heard Sweden's response described as relying on herd-immunity. This is not the case. It's not what Sweden is doing. Sweden is and has been operating under the approach that while a majority of the population will be infected, the aim is to increase the time-span so that health services aren't overwhelmed.

Arcade22 8th April 2020 07:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dann (Post 13049105)
Unfortunately for the Swedes, the lead scientist is an idiot!

Soon enough Denmark will have to open up and the same development will occur there. You can't hide under your bed sheets forever, it's not exactly a sustainable strategy. Society can't just stop for 1 or 2 years waiting for a vaccine that may never exist.

angrysoba 8th April 2020 07:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arcade22 (Post 13049201)
Soon enough Denmark will have to open up and the same development will occur there. You can't hide under your bed sheets forever, it's not exactly a sustainable strategy. Society can't just stop for 1 or 2 years waiting for a vaccine that may never exist.

In fact, Denmark will be opening up somewhat from what I understand, just as parts of China are doing now.

dann 8th April 2020 07:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uke2se (Post 13049155)
No, I'm not concerned about any loss of respect. I'm concerned that we're using the right approach, but I'm not confident enough one way or another to exclaim that our leading epedemiologist is an 'idiot' or that we need to drasticly change course.

There is an ongoing press conference where Tegnell, our chief epedemiologist claims that Sweden's r-value is 1, meaning we have started to flatten the curve in reported cases. According to the government, suggested social distansing is working. A plurality of the deaths come from retirement homes in the Stockholm region where the virus have taken root amongst the residents. The same problem does not currently exist elsewhere in Sweden.


However, at this point I see no reason to believe that reported cases have much in common with actual cases. They don't in Denmark, and I see no reason to think that it's any better in Sweden. The Norwegians have been testing much more than the Danes and the Swedes from the beginning of the outbreak, but I'm pretty sure that many cases have gone under the radar there as well. The number of deaths and hospitalized coronavirus patients seems to more reliable, but in Sweden it takes a couple of days for them to get registered, apparently.
Compare the Norwegian and Swedish numbers:

Quote:

Sweden
deaths: 687
deaths per mio: 68
tested positive: 8.419
Norway
deaths: 93
deaths per mio: 17
tested positive: 6.086
Nyeste corona-tal fra Danmark og verden: Så mange er smittede, døde og indlagte (TV2, April 8, 2020)

Quote:

ETA: Just to add, I've heard Sweden's response described as relying on herd-immunity. This is not the case. It's not what Sweden is doing. Sweden is and has been operating under the approach that while a majority of the population will be infected, the aim is to increase the time-span so that health services aren't overwhelmed.

That would be similar to Denmark, but it appears to have started much later in Sweden. I would have preferred the Faroe approach, but we may have had too few virus-infected salmon around here, unfortunately.

ETA: See also: Dødelighed skal formentlig tælles i promiller: Danske blodprøver kaster nyt lys over coronasmitten (DR.dk, April 8, 2020)

Arcade22 8th April 2020 10:02 AM

It's noteworthy that people without the faintest idea of the development and status of the Swedish healthcare system(s) and realities somehow feel that they are entitled to dictate what needs to happen, without even considering wheter it's realistic or even possible.

It's easy to imagine that by decisive leadership and the utilisation of coercive measures the situation would be so much better. Such as the notion in the UK that small business workshops were suddenly going to be pumping out ventilators, because of patriotic fervour fuelled by the great leaders oratory skills.

In reality you can't suddenly fix a serious problem with a lack of supplies, such as protective equipment, during a crisis like this. Systemic problems can't just be willed away.

In Sweden healthcare and care for the elderly are primarily the responsibility for the regional governments, not the central government. A lot of the regional governments have engaged in cost-cutting to such a point that they no longer have any emergency stockpiles at all. Everything is "Just-In-Time" and only the bare minimum is kept in storage. A concrete example of the problem this causes is that far to many people have been infected and died at elderly care facilities simply because the personnel did not sufficient protective equipment to minimise the risk of spreading the disease.

Oh and how people seem to think that you can test hundreds of thousands of people every day just because it's good idea. Apparently they never seem to wonder: who is going to do the testing? How will they be taken and where? How will they be transported and where will they be analysed by which persons? And above all else, how can this be done in such a way as to prevent the testing itself from spreading the disease?

Oftentimes it's not a lack of will that's the problem, but rather it the lack of means and the constraints of the political system that's the problem. Guess what: not every country is under a totalitarian state that can allocate an almost infinite amount of resources according to the whims of its leadership. Not in every country can millions of people be rounded up in concentration camps or forcibly quarantined.

dann 8th April 2020 11:18 AM

So I guess that somebody has suggested that the solution to the coronavirus infections in Sweden is that "millions of people be rounded up in concentration camps or forcibly quarantined."
Could you tell us who would suggest a solution like that? And could you tell us why that appears to be the only alternative you can imagine to the lax attitude to the Covid-19 epidemic in Sweden?


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