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-   -   Continuation Brexit: Now What? 9 Below Zero (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=339007)

Lukraak_Sisser 14th December 2019 12:04 AM

Lets see what deal he pushes through though.

After all, he no longer has to listen to the DUP so he can choose whether to violate the good friday accords or to put a customs check between NI and the rest of the UK.

The Don 14th December 2019 12:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser (Post 12924547)
Lets see what deal he pushes through though.

After all, he no longer has to listen to the DUP so he can choose whether to violate the good friday accords or to put a customs check between NI and the rest of the UK.

President Trump will insist on a "no-deal" Brexit as a prerequisite for a UK/US trade deal. Even though the EU is far more important to the UK from a trade perspective, the "project" requires a complete split from Europe.

Darat 14th December 2019 12:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser (Post 12924547)
Lets see what deal he pushes through though.

After all, he no longer has to listen to the DUP so he can choose whether to violate the good friday accords or to put a customs check between NI and the rest of the UK.

We know it is the bill he got through last time. So we know there will be the custom checks, Johnson simply lied when he said there wouldn't be.

Lukraak_Sisser 14th December 2019 12:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 12924553)
President Trump will insist on a "no-deal" Brexit as a prerequisite for a UK/US trade deal. Even though the EU is far more important to the UK from a trade perspective, the "project" requires a complete split from Europe.

But does Johnson care for that? He wanted to be PM with full power. He has that now, so he no longer has to keep his promises.

The Don 14th December 2019 12:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser (Post 12924556)
But does Johnson care for that? He wanted to be PM with full power. He has that now, so he no longer has to keep his promises.

Now he has full power, he can put the "project" into full effect.

psionl0 14th December 2019 01:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by a_unique_person (Post 12924259)
I guess that's the end of this thread, then.

This will make an interesting test case. We have been conditioned to believe that if there isn't open slather on international trade then the result will be an apocalypse.

Boris now has the mandate to test this theory.

Mojo 14th December 2019 01:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 12924553)
President Trump will insist on a "no-deal" Brexit as a prerequisite for a UK/US trade deal. Even though the EU is far more important to the UK from a trade perspective, the "project" requires a complete split from Europe.


The Donald commenting on Borisís election victory:
Quote:

Heís a friend of mine, itís going to be a great thing for the United States also, because it means a lot of trade, tremendous amount of trade, they want to do business with us so badly.
[Source: BBC Breakfast, 14/12/19, 08:32.]

Vixen 14th December 2019 03:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 12924553)
President Trump will insist on a "no-deal" Brexit as a prerequisite for a UK/US trade deal. Even though the EU is far more important to the UK from a trade perspective, the "project" requires a complete split from Europe.

But how long will Trump be there?

Vixen 14th December 2019 03:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser (Post 12924547)
Lets see what deal he pushes through though.

After all, he no longer has to listen to the DUP so he can choose whether to violate the good friday accords or to put a customs check between NI and the rest of the UK.

I was rather sad to see 'hang-dog'-faced Nigel Dodds go. He was quite erudite speaking in the Commons, unlike the ravers and ranters (one thing I can't stand).

At least we know why Sinn Fein have been celebrating. One step closer.

Captain_Swoop 14th December 2019 03:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mojo (Post 12924572)
The Donald commenting on Borisís election victory:
[Source: BBC Breakfast, 14/12/19, 08:32.]

He also said that trade with the US will be more profitable and bigger than any trade with the EU.

JoeMorgue 14th December 2019 08:04 AM

So when is the next "Okay 3rd mulligan, we're going to ask you yet again DO YOU WANT BREXIT and we mean it this time" vote/election/referendum going to happen and what's the plan when that one comes back "Yes" as well?

Brexit is one of the dumbest things that has happened in modern politics but the "Okay the original non-binding resolution was just a fluke that didn't count" thing has officially been killed by this point.

Darat 14th December 2019 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue (Post 12924735)
So when is the next "Okay 3rd mulligan, we're going to ask you yet again DO YOU WANT BREXIT and we mean it this time" vote/election/referendum going to happen and what's the plan when that one comes back "Yes" as well?

Brexit is one of the dumbest things that has happened in modern politics but the "Okay the original non-binding resolution was just a fluke that didn't count" thing has officially been killed by this point.

There won't be anything else.

Now that the likes of Johnson and Mogg are no longer stopping us leaving the EU we will be leaving on 31/1/2020.

angrysoba 14th December 2019 08:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue (Post 12924735)
So when is the next "Okay 3rd mulligan, we're going to ask you yet again DO YOU WANT BREXIT and we mean it this time" vote/election/referendum going to happen and what's the plan when that one comes back "Yes" as well?

Brexit is one of the dumbest things that has happened in modern politics but the "Okay the original non-binding resolution was just a fluke that didn't count" thing has officially been killed by this point.

Brexit is a formality now. But that doesn't mean it won't be a continuing story.

GlennB 14th December 2019 08:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue (Post 12924735)
So when is the next "Okay 3rd mulligan, we're going to ask you yet again DO YOU WANT BREXIT and we mean it this time" vote/election/referendum going to happen and what's the plan when that one comes back "Yes" as well?

Brexit is one of the dumbest things that has happened in modern politics but the "Okay the original non-binding resolution was just a fluke that didn't count" thing has officially been killed by this point.

The bill Johnson pulled because MPs wanted more than 30 seconds to debate it will go through unamended. We enter the transition period at the end of January.

This is especially interesting (;)) in this house, as our Greek NHS booklets have to be renewed in February. There's a fair chance that some bureaucrat will decide that the UK 'has left the EU, so no renewal for them'.

Nessie 14th December 2019 08:34 AM

We are leaving, so next is to see what sort of deal and other arrangements we will have with the EU.

My main issue is, planned holiday to Germany next year, what will we need to do re passports and a visa, or will we need to do anything? Also, what queue will we need to join when we get to the airport?

Darat 14th December 2019 09:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nessie (Post 12924756)
We are leaving, so next is to see what sort of deal and other arrangements we will have with the EU.

My main issue is, planned holiday to Germany next year, what will we need to do re passports and a visa, or will we need to do anything? Also, what queue will we need to join when we get to the airport?

We leave the EU so "non EU citizens" unless you have dual nationality with an EU country.

Darat 14th December 2019 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GlennB (Post 12924755)
The bill Johnson pulled because MPs wanted more than 30 seconds to debate it will go through unamended. We enter the transition period at the end of January.



This is especially interesting (;)) in this house, as our Greek NHS booklets have to be renewed in February. There's a fair chance that some bureaucrat will decide that the UK 'has left the EU, so no renewal for them'.

We will have left. Midnight 31/1/20 and we are no longer in the EU. We have a transition deal that will help mitigate some things.

Not sure what your exact circumstances are but in the transition deal May and Johnson agreed the only terms that I think will cover you is that UK pensioners already living in the EU can continue to use the S1 and EHIC.

Does that help you?

GlennB 14th December 2019 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darat (Post 12924789)
We will have left. Midnight 31/1/20 and we are no longer in the EU. We have a transition deal that will help mitigate some things.

Not sure what your exact circumstances are but in the transition deal May and Johnson agreed the only terms that I think will cover you is that UK pensioners already living in the EU can continue to use the S1 and EHIC.

Does that help you?

On paper our S1 would be valid to the end of 2020, meaning we'd have the right to access the NHS here. On paper. And I've read analyses that suggest that the S1 system is already guaranteed to last longer. But then Theresa May assured Brit expats that they could always return to the UK for treatment if they lost EU healthcare, so the waters are very muddy indeed.

But if we renew in Feb for the Mar 2020 to Feb 2021 period then it might be thought that this can't be allowed as it goes beyond the transition period. Plus, Greek bureaucrats sometimes are as awkward as they can manage. If Greeks in the UK start to encounter problems there could easily be unofficial 'reprisals' towards Brits here.

Want to buy a house? Bargain price! :)

GlennB 14th December 2019 09:44 AM

Meanwhile:

"EU negotiators will offer British people the chance to individually opt-in and remain EU citizens as a proposal in Brexit negotiations, the European Parliament’s chief negotiator has confirmed.

The plan, first revealed in its early stages by The Independent last month, was being considered as a long-term aim by the European Parliament – but has now been fast-tracked to the negotiating table by Guy Verhofstadt, who is in charge of thrashing out a post-Brexit deal."

I won't provide the link as it's to The Independent, which has to be the most vile newspaper website imaginable.

Nessie 14th December 2019 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darat (Post 12924780)
We leave the EU so "non EU citizens" unless you have dual nationality with an EU country.

I am hoping that we can have some sort of arrangement whereby we have the same type of passport and we have remained in the likes of the customs union, we can still use those lanes.

I suspect not.

Nessie 14th December 2019 09:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GlennB (Post 12924808)
Meanwhile:

"EU negotiators will offer British people the chance to individually opt-in and remain EU citizens as a proposal in Brexit negotiations, the European Parliament’s chief negotiator has confirmed.

The plan, first revealed in its early stages by The Independent last month, was being considered as a long-term aim by the European Parliament – but has now been fast-tracked to the negotiating table by Guy Verhofstadt, who is in charge of thrashing out a post-Brexit deal."

I won't provide the link as it's to The Independent, which has to be the most vile newspaper website imaginable.

From the Metro, in March 2017 mind;

https://metro.co.uk/2017/03/29/eu-ne...firms-6540810/

"The European Parliament’s chief negotiator has confirmed that EU negotiators will offer British people the chance to individually opt-in and remain EU citizens. Speaking to The Independent Guy Verhofstadt said he had ‘fast-tracked’ the idea to the negotiating table – although it remains to be seen if it will be accepted as part of the final deal. Verhofstadt said that the ‘very important’ proposal had ‘captured the imagination and hopes’ of the British people. The idea of ‘associate citizenship’ of the EU was first mooted in November by Charles Goerens, a liberal MEP from Luxembourg. Although slightly vague on fine detail, His plan would guarantee rights, such as residency, to people who pay a fee."

GlennB 14th December 2019 10:05 AM

Damn, yes, it's an old article. I was fooled by it being surrounded by links to current stuff. I blame the poxy Independent.

Arcade22 14th December 2019 08:31 PM

At least there's one good thing about Brexit: when the UK leaves it might revise the law regarding tobacco products and allow the sale of Swedish Snus. Current EU laws prohibit the sale of snus, with Sweden being the exception.

The Don 15th December 2019 12:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vixen (Post 12924591)
But how long will Trump be there?

Likely 5 years. Boris needs a deal very soon.

Nessie 15th December 2019 07:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GlennB (Post 12924827)
Damn, yes, it's an old article. I was fooled by it being surrounded by links to current stuff. I blame the poxy Independent.

It is still an excellent idea, joint UK and EU nationality for individuals, so that those people have freedom of movement etc around the EU to travel, work and live.

Information Analyst 15th December 2019 08:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nessie (Post 12925406)
It is still an excellent idea, joint UK and EU nationality for individuals, so that those people have freedom of movement etc around the EU to travel, work and live.

Still clinging to that one, even if it only counts for people born before the UK leaves the EU. Luckily, Analyst Junior Ver 2.0 is due on 25 January...

IsThisTheLife 15th December 2019 10:44 AM

Something I hope comes of leaving the EU will be more trade with Australia. I've always found it odd how little produce we buy from them, despite the fact that much of it (for e.g. preserves/jams, tinned fruit) is some of the best you'll ever find, and for which their should be no logistical/economic problems with shipping, despite the distance. I believe they could quite easily compete with the (expensive) continental brands that dominate in the UK.

catsmate 15th December 2019 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 12924553)
President Trump will insist on a "no-deal" Brexit as a prerequisite for a UK/US trade deal. Even though the EU is far more important to the UK from a trade perspective, the "project" requires a complete split from Europe.

However the US Congress may disagree.

jimbob 15th December 2019 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IsThisTheLife (Post 12925555)
Something I hope comes of leaving the EU will be more trade with Australia. I've always found it odd how little produce we buy from them, despite the fact that much of it (for e.g. preserves/jams, tinned fruit) is some of the best you'll ever find, and for which their should be no logistical/economic problems with shipping, despite the distance. I believe they could quite easily compete with the (expensive) continental brands that dominate in the UK.

I'm not sure that, lovely as Australia is, a country 10,000 miles away with a population of 25-million is going to replace a market with a population of 450-million (excluding the UK) and sharing a land border with the UK.

IsThisTheLife 15th December 2019 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimbob (Post 12925719)
I'm not sure that, lovely as Australia is, a country 10,000 miles away with a population of 25-million is going to replace a market with a population of 450-million (excluding the UK) and sharing a land border with the UK.

I didn't say anything about "replacing" European suppliers - the fact is that, as far as I'm aware, literally the only Australian produce to be found in a UK supermarket is Vegemite (and wine, of course). I'm guessing that the Australians export surpluses to closer territories, and believe me, when they have a surpluses they can be enormous, and often of quite high-value crops likes pistachios and kalamata olives (both of which I've found to be among the best I've tried anywhere). They're a huge exporter of wine to the UK, why nothing else?

ETA >> Oh, and the apricot jam (my favourite) over there ...

The Don 15th December 2019 11:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IsThisTheLife (Post 12925721)
I didn't say anything about "replacing" European suppliers - the fact is that, as far as I'm aware, literally the only Australian produce to be found in a UK supermarket is Vegemite (and wine, of course). I'm guessing that the Australians export surpluses to closer territories, and believe me, when they have a surpluses they can be enormous, and often of quite high-value crops likes pistachios and kalamata olives (both of which I've found to be among the best I've tried anywhere). They're a huge exporter of wine to the UK, why nothing else?

ETA >> Oh, and the apricot jam (my favourite) over there ...

Plenty of Australian wine in the supermarkets.

We already have sources of olives and pistachios. Supermarkets have multi year supply contracts. A short term surplus isn't going to make them switch.

angrysoba 16th December 2019 12:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IsThisTheLife (Post 12925721)
I didn't say anything about "replacing" European suppliers - the fact is that, as far as I'm aware, literally the only Australian produce to be found in a UK supermarket is Vegemite (and wine, of course). I'm guessing that the Australians export surpluses to closer territories, and believe me, when they have a surpluses they can be enormous, and often of quite high-value crops likes pistachios and kalamata olives (both of which I've found to be among the best I've tried anywhere). They're a huge exporter of wine to the UK, why nothing else?

ETA >> Oh, and the apricot jam (my favourite) over there ...

Not just more pistachios and olives than we need but more than more than we need!?! Wow! Brexit looks rosy already! Oh, and apricot jam as well.

That certainly makes up for losing zero tariffs on businesses trading with the EU, freedom of travel and opportunities for work. Instead British people can pay even more for the apparently overpriced European goods and speed up climate change getting apricot jam shipped over from Australia!

Glad I don’t live in the UK anymore. I have no interest in apricot jam.

The Don 16th December 2019 01:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by angrysoba (Post 12925993)
Not just more pistachios and olives than we need but more than more than we need!?! Wow! Brexit looks rosy already! Oh, and apricot jam as well.

That certainly makes up for losing zero tariffs on businesses trading with the EU, freedom of travel and opportunities for work. Instead British people can pay even more for the apparently overpriced European goods and speed up climate change getting apricot jam shipped over from Australia!

Glad I donít live in the UK anymore. I have no interest in apricot jam.

Following Brexit, the little-Englanders are going to get a heck of a shock when they go on their first "booze cruise" to France to find out that instead of an entire car full of wine and beer, they can only bring back 4 litres of wine, 16 litres of beer and a couple of bottles of spirits.

Vixen 16th December 2019 02:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 12925994)
Following Brexit, the little-Englanders are going to get a heck of a shock when they go on their first "booze cruise" to France to find out that instead of an entire car full of wine and beer, they can only bring back 4 litres of wine, 16 litres of beer and a couple of bottles of spirits.

The asylum seekers camps in France and Belgium will likely be transferred to England as well. Now there's a lovely surprise for the Dover Brexiteers!

Matthew Best 16th December 2019 02:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Information Analyst (Post 12925419)
Still clinging to that one, even if it only counts for people born before the UK leaves the EU. Luckily, Analyst Junior Ver 2.0 is due on 25 January...

Congratulations!

P.J. Denyer 16th December 2019 03:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 12925994)
Following Brexit, the little-Englanders are going to get a heck of a shock when they go on their first "booze cruise" to France to find out that instead of an entire car full of wine and beer, they can only bring back 4 litres of wine, 16 litres of beer and a couple of bottles of spirits.

As a wine seller that would be the one small ray of light for me, except that I'm expecting most of my customer's discretionary spending to be further restricted. That and I have this nagging feeling that Johnson will find some way of ensuring that you can bring back a RangeRover full of French wine, otherwise it will annoy his base.

ponderingturtle 16th December 2019 04:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser (Post 12924547)
Lets see what deal he pushes through though.

After all, he no longer has to listen to the DUP so he can choose whether to violate the good friday accords or to put a customs check between NI and the rest of the UK.

No deal is the clear answer for what deal. Crashing out is on!

ponderingturtle 16th December 2019 04:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vixen (Post 12924591)
But how long will Trump be there?

Well the Trump 2024 campaign is starting.

The Don 16th December 2019 04:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ponderingturtle (Post 12926109)
No deal is the clear answer for what deal. Crashing out is on!

Although, as has been pointed out by others. No deal would be just the start of a years (decades ?) long process to agree a post-Brexit set of deals across a variety of subjects, including trade.

The Don 16th December 2019 04:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ponderingturtle (Post 12926113)
Well the Trump 2024 campaign is starting.

Donald or Ivanka ?


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