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-   -   Bill Barr and his October Surprise (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=346780)

TahiniBinShawarma 22nd October 2020 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue (Post 13266770)
Ah yes the "It doesn't matter that I'm anti-intellectual trolling conspiratorial nonsense because I'm just doing it on the internet" defense.

The blame it on Russia with no evidence is the conspiracy theory actually. The rest just is what it is. Without the actual emails and metadata no one could know either way. The FBI has the laptop. Although I doubt computer repair guy lied to the FBI about how he came into possession of the laptop. And I doubt Rudy has a crystal ball to know that repair guy's mediator would contact Costello.

JoeMorgue 22nd October 2020 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shuttlt (Post 13266784)
By definition, a secret bank account won't be on his tax returns.

That's some good conspiratorial thinking there.

"There's no evidence because it's a secret!"

Trebuchet 22nd October 2020 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uke2se (Post 13266738)
Why are you guys giving air to this obivious pile of Russian disinformation? Two Big Dog clones are tag-team-trolling this thread just to keep the discussion going. Let it die.

TBS? TBD? People get confused!

TahiniBinShawarma 22nd October 2020 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elagabalus (Post 13266776)
Except Joe has already released his tax returns. He doesn't have a secret China Bank account like Trump does.

The secret Chinese account on Trump's tax returns? LOL, you really don't know how this works.

shuttlt 22nd October 2020 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue (Post 13266789)
That's some good conspiratorial thinking there.

"There's no evidence because it's a secret!"

It's not a secret if you tell people about it. That's the definition of not-a-secret.

The Great Zaganza 22nd October 2020 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shuttlt (Post 13266784)
By definition, a secret bank account won't be on his tax returns.

Biden's financial activities haven't been suspicious enough to have him audited year after year after year.

TahiniBinShawarma 22nd October 2020 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza (Post 13266802)
Biden's financial activities haven't been suspicious enough to have him audited year after year after year.

And yet Trump has never been charged with any type of tax evasion or money laundering. Unless you think the IRS are a bunch of chumps, kinda ruins the narrative you're trying to push.

The Great Zaganza 22nd October 2020 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TahiniBinShawarma (Post 13266810)
And yet Trump has never been charged with any type of tax evasion or money laundering. Unless you think the IRS are a bunch of chumps, kinda ruins the narrative you're trying to push.

of course they are - Republicans made sure they would be.

Stacyhs 22nd October 2020 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shuttlt (Post 13266761)
As he explains, the Johnson report made him aware of things that made him see what he knew in a new light.

Yeah, because "strongly worded insinuations with little evidence to back them up," make us see things so much more clearly.

TahiniBinShawarma 22nd October 2020 11:14 AM

3 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Stacyhs (Post 13266816)
Yeah, because "strongly worded insinuations with little evidence to back them up," make us see things so much more clearly.

An e-mail to Hunter Biden's partner from a top Chinese official on July 26, 2017 shows the Chinese energy company CEFC proposed a $5 million "interest-free" loan to the Biden family "based on their trust on [Biden] family[.]"

"Should CEFC keep lending more to the family?"

Less than two weeks later, on August 8, 2017, $5 million was wired from a CEFC-affiliated investment vehicle to a Delaware LLC, which spent the next year transfering nearly $4.8 million directly to Hunter Biden's firm, according to Senate investigators.

https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/med...port_FINAL.pdf

Interest Free Loans are illegal (violation of IRC). Loans over $100,000 require interest payment of AFR%-any amount paid. Further, that's around 70k per year interest which Bidens would have to report on their 709. Again if true, but those are the rules.

TahiniBinShawarma 22nd October 2020 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza (Post 13266815)
of course they are - Republicans made sure they would be.

And the audits before Trump was elected? And of course you have evidence of Republicans made sure they would be, don't you? This wouldn't be a baseless conspiracy theory of yours would it?

The Great Zaganza 22nd October 2020 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TahiniBinShawarma (Post 13266820)
And the audits before Trump was elected? And of course you have evidence of Republicans made sure they would be, don't you? This wouldn't be a baseless conspiracy theory of yours would it?

as far as we can tell, none of the audits of Trump's since his Casino sale have been finalized.
This is not normal.

There is a Congressional Committee that needs to sign of on Trump's massive rebate, and they still haven't done so.

Segnosaur 22nd October 2020 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TahiniBinShawarma (Post 13266810)
And yet Trump has never been charged with any type of tax evasion or money laundering. Unless you think the IRS are a bunch of chumps, kinda ruins the narrative you're trying to push.

You are right, Trump hasn't been charged with any sort of tax evasion or similar financial crimes. (Although I could point out that the IRS probably wouldn't be involved in investigating money laundering, but I will give you the benefit of the doubt and just assume you meant financial crimes in general.)

But I think that has more to do a lack of oversight by the government. The IRS severely cut back on the resources available for performing audits (and they have been avoiding auditing the super wealthy, since those audits are more time consuming.) And in general governments have a less than stellar record at dealing with financial crimes.

Remember, Manafort was charged (and convicted!) with crimes going back to 2010 (and it is likely that he was engaged in similar crimes before that. So that was the better part of a decade where his criminal activities were overlooked by the government. And it was likely only because of his association with Stubby McBonespurs that investigators bothered to look at his crimes in the first place... had he avoided the campaign, he probably would never have gone to jail.

I suspect the same thing is going on with Trump... years (or decades) of crimes that have been overlooked because of the complexity of investigating and prosecuting them, but now that he is currently in the spotlight, investigators are taking a closer look at stuff they might not have been aware of previously.

Gulliver Foyle 22nd October 2020 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Keith (Post 13259850)
I don't think it is fair to compare Hunter to the Trump kids. Neither Barron nor Tiffany have carreers based off of their father's name, yet.

Though that's not without a lot of trying on the part of Tiffany.

Dr. Keith 22nd October 2020 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TahiniBinShawarma (Post 13266666)
An e-mail to Hunter Biden's partner from a top Chinese official . . .

<snip >


Interest Free Loans are illegal (violation of IRC). Loans over $100,000 require interest payment of AFR%-any amount paid. Further, that's around 70k per year interest which Bidens would have to report on their 709. Again if true, but those are the rules.

And the DOJ has known about all of this for over ten months and yet has not done anything to anyone in the Biden family. They have not sent a sternly worded letter to the campaign or even asked the Bidens in for questioning?

Does it not seem strange to you at all that you appear to understand the importance of these facts better than Mr. Barr?

Or is there any chance, even just a chance, that the Trump DOJ and Mr. Barr have been through this and see that it lacks even the bun of a nothing burger so they are staying quiet?

TahiniBinShawarma 22nd October 2020 12:33 PM

3 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by TahiniBinShawarma (Post 13266819)
An e-mail to Hunter Biden's partner from a top Chinese official on July 26, 2017 shows the Chinese energy company CEFC proposed a $5 million "interest-free" loan to the Biden family "based on their trust on [Biden] family[.]"

"Should CEFC keep lending more to the family?"

Less than two weeks later, on August 8, 2017, $5 million was wired from a CEFC-affiliated investment vehicle to a Delaware LLC, which spent the next year transfering nearly $4.8 million directly to Hunter Biden's firm, according to Senate investigators.

https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/med...port_FINAL.pdf

Interest Free Loans are illegal (violation of IRC). Loans over $100,000 require interest payment of AFR%-any amount paid. Further, that's around 70k per year interest which Bidens would have to report on their 709. Again if true, but those are the rules.

"@seanmdav
Text messages obtained by
@FDRLST
show Hunter Biden personally arranging a meeting with his business partners and Joe Biden to discuss a major deal with CEFC, a Chinese energy company. The meeting occurred at the Beverly Hilton in L.A. in early May. Texts are from May 2, 2017."

"@seanmdav
The next morning, on May 3, 2017, Hunter's business partner-turned-whistleblower Tony Bobulinski texted James Biden--Hunter's uncle/Joe Biden's brother--and asked him to "please thank Joe for his time" for the meeting they all had on May 2 to discuss the China business deal."

Dr. Keith 22nd October 2020 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shuttlt (Post 13266719)
This part does seem like it is the case at the moment.

I don't think it actually is the case, but it does seem to be a central claim of the conspiracy theory.

Quote:

I wouldn't know about this.
And yet your whole presentation depends on it.

Quote:

There seem like there are other possibilities. It doesn't seem impossible given that we know came out around Peter Strzok and altered/concealed evidence but it is way too early to say. I was disagreeing with you that just because Trump is President, the FBI is necessarily batting for him.
I'm not saying they would be on his side, I'm saying that a large number of career FBI agents and supervisors would have to be actively working against the President of the United States to keep this secret. There is no evidence that any FBI agents are that fracking stupid, even in your half handed examples.


Quote:

Well, if anybody is going to get fired a public announcement that they were being fired over this case would seem to conflict with not commenting on open cases. I don't know how long it would normally take for them to fire somebody, but this timescale seems very short. How long did it take for Strzok to go? Also, its one thing to find that they have sat on an investigation and another to prove that that was done for corrupt reasons.
Firings happen when Trump says they happen, or when someone tells them they need to happen. Have you forgotten you voted for a man whose catch phrase is "you're Fired!"

uke2se 22nd October 2020 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Keith (Post 13266874)
I don't think it actually is the case, but it does seem to be a central claim of the conspiracy theory.



And yet your whole presentation depends on it.



I'm not saying they would be on his side, I'm saying that a large number of career FBI agents and supervisors would have to be actively working against the President of the United States to keep this secret. There is no evidence that any FBI agents are that fracking stupid, even in your half handed examples.




Firings happen when Trump says they happen, or when someone tells them they need to happen. Have you forgotten you voted for a man whose catch phrase is "you're Fired!"

What's the point of answering all of that? The conspiracy theory in the post you quoted is Q-anon level stupidity.

TahiniBinShawarma 22nd October 2020 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Keith (Post 13266868)
And the DOJ has known about all of this for over ten months and yet has not done anything to anyone in the Biden family. They have not sent a sternly worded letter to the campaign or even asked the Bidens in for questioning?

Does it not seem strange to you at all that you appear to understand the importance of these facts better than Mr. Barr?

Or is there any chance, even just a chance, that the Trump DOJ and Mr. Barr have been through this and see that it lacks even the bun of a nothing burger so they are staying quiet?

Neither you or I know what the FBI or DOJ is doing, stop pretending you do, and stop complaining about me putting out facts just because you don't like them.

Stacyhs 22nd October 2020 12:41 PM

Leona Helmsley* was only charged with and convicted of tax evasion and fraud because she was sued by a contractor for failing to pay him for work done on her mansion. During the course of the lawsuit, falsified invoices were produced that appeared to be an attempt to avoid tax liabilities. This started a criminal investigation that lead to the tax convictions. Without the lawsuit, she'd have likely gotten away with the tax fraud/evasion.

Trump hasn't been charged with tax crimes. Yet. But I wouldn't bet that he won't be once he's out of office.

*"I don't pay taxes. Only little people pay taxes."

uke2se 22nd October 2020 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stacyhs (Post 13266887)
Leona Helmsley* was only charged with and convicted of tax evasion and fraud because she was sued by a contractor for failing to pay him for work done on her mansion. During the course of the lawsuit, falsified invoices were produced that appeared to be an attempt to avoid tax liabilities. This started a criminal investigation that lead to the tax convictions. Without the lawsuit, she'd have likely gotten away with the tax fraud/evasion.

Trump hasn't been charged with tax crimes. Yet. But I wouldn't bet that he won't be once he's out of office.

*"I don't pay taxes. Only little people pay taxes."

Not investigating Trump's no doubt multiple crimes would be a disservice to the country and a huge missed opportunity to really trigger the cultists.

JoeMorgue 22nd October 2020 12:58 PM

Seen on Twitter:

Hey guys no foolin' but I just found Hunter Biden's old Texas Instruments TI-80 graphing calculator at a Goodwill store in Doglick, Montana and on it were plans to kill God. We need to take this seriously.

Dr. Keith 22nd October 2020 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TahiniBinShawarma (Post 13266881)
Neither you or I know what the FBI or DOJ is doing, stop pretending you do, and stop complaining about me putting out facts just because you don't like them.

I think it is clear that if the FBI and DOJ know that a crime has been committed they tend to do . . . something?

If they had evidence that I was breaking the law for ten months I kinda think they would have contacted me by now.

Is it your position that the DOJ is going to just let the Bidens slide on the major crimes you have alleged occurred here? If so, that is some DerpState prime CT you are smoking.

Dr. Keith 22nd October 2020 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue (Post 13266901)
Seen on Twitter:

Hey guys no foolin' but I just found Hunter Biden's old Texas Instruments TI-80 graphing calculator at a Goodwill store in Doglick, Montana and on it were plans to kill God. We need to take this seriously.

I heard that it was pre-programed to provide the meaning of life if you just multiply 5 times 1,601,627. Truth.

TahiniBinShawarma 22nd October 2020 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Keith (Post 13266910)
I think it is clear that if the FBI and DOJ know that a crime has been committed they tend to do . . . something?

If they had evidence that I was breaking the law for ten months I kinda think they would have contacted me by now.

Is it your position that the DOJ is going to just let the Bidens slide on the major crimes you have alleged occurred here? If so, that is some DerpState prime CT you are smoking.

Never said that at all, and not sure why you think they would contact Biden before an investigation is over. The targets are the last ones they interview, once they know everything. Considering this includes overseas money, I don't think putting a time limit of 10 months means much.

Gulliver Foyle 22nd October 2020 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy (Post 13261115)
So, the "reporter" who wrote the story involving Bannon and Guiliani? Hannity's old producer.

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/17/92450...ducer-giuliani

This is reaching Mad Magazine levels of journalistic integrity.

The NPR piece is overstating her position at Fox, she was a guest booker for Hannity, ie a low level schmoe who'd do any dirty job for a shot at the big time.

Dr. Keith 22nd October 2020 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uke2se (Post 13266878)
What's the point of answering all of that? The conspiracy theory in the post you quoted is Q-anon level stupidity.

Because it is the flimsiest of film-flam. The kind of stuff that if you let it stand they can build whole films about. This is the stuff that great debunkers and hard core BernieBros used to put time into debunking not by getting into the details, but by pointing out the absurdity of the claim and the world that would have to exist if that claim were true.

I don't even have to look at the documents that may or may not be real if their argument starts with "The FBI has had all this information for at least 10 months and yet has done nothing."

That ends the conversation right there. You don't even have to ask how long Rudy has known about it, when Rudy may have told Barr that the FBI has this information or when Rudy may have told Eric* about this stuff. None of the rest matters because the FBI has had all the facts for at least 9 months longer than it would take them to analyze them and determine that there was something to be investigated.


*Because let's face it, Eric is the only one who will pick up his calls these days, daddy makes him.

Dr. Keith 22nd October 2020 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TahiniBinShawarma (Post 13266920)
Never said that at all, and not sure why you think they would contact Biden before an investigation is over. The targets are the last ones they interview, once they know everything. Considering this includes overseas money, I don't think putting a time limit of 10 months means much.

Ooh, monies overseas! That makes everything so complicated for the government of the United States of ******* America? Man, if only we had assets overseas . . .

I'm not putting a time limit on it. The election is putting a time limit on it. As Trump has shown, the President is immune to prosecution. If there is something out there that shows Biden is a crook the FBI had* a duty to do something about that before he is immune to prosecution, don't ya think?


*I previously used "has", but the fact is the clock has already run on this. About half the electorate has already voted. Why did Rudy wait so long? Timing is not his strength . . .

uke2se 22nd October 2020 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Keith (Post 13266933)
Because it is the flimsiest of film-flam. The kind of stuff that if you let it stand they can build whole films about. This is the stuff that great debunkers and hard core BernieBros used to put time into debunking not by getting into the details, but by pointing out the absurdity of the claim and the world that would have to exist if that claim were true.

I don't even have to look at the documents that may or may not be real if their argument starts with "The FBI has had all this information for at least 10 months and yet has done nothing."

That ends the conversation right there. You don't even have to ask how long Rudy has known about it, when Rudy may have told Barr that the FBI has this information or when Rudy may have told Eric* about this stuff. No-one of the rest matters because the FBI has had all the facts for at least 9 months longer than it would take them to analyze them and determine that there was something to be investigated.


*Because let's face it, Eric is the only one who will pick up his calls these days, daddy makes him.

I agree with you if your goal is to debunk a conspiracy theory. The problem is, this conspiracy theory isn't designed to be a slow boil, building up an online following and eventually sell books and speaking engagements for a bunch of grifters. This conspiracy theory is designed to win an election that is in less than two weeks by clogging up the air waves and trying to reach low information voters through volume of disinformation. We all know it's BS. The people pushing it know it's BS. This is the Big Lie. We counter it through denying it air.

TahiniBinShawarma 22nd October 2020 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Keith (Post 13266936)
Ooh, monies overseas! That makes everything so complicated for the government of the United States of ******* America? Man, if only we had assets overseas . . .

I'm not putting a time limit on it. The election is putting a time limit on it. As Trump has shown, the President is immune to prosecution. If there is something out there that shows Biden is a crook the FBI had* a duty to do something about that before he is immune to prosecution, don't ya think?


*I previously used "has", but the fact is the clock has already run on this. About half the electorate has already voted. Why did Rudy wait so long? Timing is not his strength . . .


No, because they aren't supposed to comment on open investigations.

Gulliver Foyle 22nd October 2020 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by phiwum (Post 13262696)
That seems more or less correct. The repair shop owner could be in legal jeopardy, but that has little to do with whether the emails are legitimate or not.

Now, the alleged smoking gun is hardly a big deal, seems to me. Honestly, if it is a totally fake email, then it seems like a trial balloon sent out before more seriously damning fake emails are released.

Trump regularly meets with people who have paid his company hundreds of thousands of dollars (for Mar-A-Lago fees, for instance) and his administration ends up benefiting those companies. Here we have an alleged meeting between Biden and a fellow working for Burisma (if I'm not mistaken) with no details about the context of the meeting and no record of the meeting according to Biden's spokesmen (who are not, of course, disinterested). There is already evidence that Biden's work in Ukraine had nothing to do with Burisma's interests and that didn't evidently change after the alleged meeting.

If this is all a ruse (which honestly seems pretty likely to me), it's not the real October surprise. It's merely setting the stage for more startling allegations.

There's little doubt that Hunter Biden profited from his father's position and that Burisma was interested in hiring him at least partly because of that position. This was a poor move on his part. It certainly doesn't make Biden look worse than the Trump family looks.

And if the highlighted bit is the case, then Guiliani has blown his chance, because by releasing such patently and easily disproven lies, he's just shot the last tattered remnants of his credibility to hell and back.

Dr. Keith 22nd October 2020 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uke2se (Post 13266937)
I agree with you if your goal is to debunk a conspiracy theory. The problem is, this conspiracy theory isn't designed to be a slow boil, building up an online following and eventually sell books and speaking engagements for a bunch of grifters. This conspiracy theory is designed to win an election that is in less than two weeks by clogging up the air waves and trying to reach low information voters through volume of disinformation. We all know it's BS. The people pushing it know it's BS. This is the Big Lie. We counter it through denying it air.

That is why I'm trying to point out the Big Lie: Trump's FBI has been actively covering for the Biden family.

That is the pile of BS that this whole house of cards is built on. And when you get there you have to wonder if Trump is such a bad president that the whole Administrative Branch is turning on him or is Rudy just a bad liar playing to gullible marks. Either choice is good by me, frankly.

Dr. Keith 22nd October 2020 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TahiniBinShawarma (Post 13266940)
No, because they aren't supposed to comment on open investigations.

But you said it was an open and shut case. The evidence was clear, to you. The facts were simple, you summarized them in a single post. Fact, document, quote law, crime!

Are you wrong or are the FBI just not good at their jobs?

Dr. Keith 22nd October 2020 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle (Post 13266941)
And if the highlighted bit is the case, then Guiliani has blown his chance, because by releasing such patently and easily disproven lies, he's just shot the last tattered remnants of his credibility to hell and back.

Whoever picked DeepTuck to be the point man on the October Surprise is the real criminal in all of this.

TahiniBinShawarma 22nd October 2020 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Keith (Post 13266933)
I don't even have to look at the documents that may or may not be real if their argument starts with "The FBI has had all this information for at least 10 months and yet has done nothing."


I think it's funny when you people keep saying 10 months as if that means anything.

CORed 22nd October 2020 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Keith (Post 13266936)
Ooh, monies overseas! That makes everything so complicated for the government of the United States of ******* America? Man, if only we had assets overseas . . .

I'm not putting a time limit on it. The election is putting a time limit on it. As Trump has shown, the President is immune to prosecution. If there is something out there that shows Biden is a crook the FBI had* a duty to do something about that before he is immune to prosecution, don't ya think?


*I previously used "has", but the fact is the clock has already run on this. About half the electorate has already voted. Why did Rudy wait so long? Timing is not his strength . . .

Yes, given the amount of early voting in the election, Rudy is at least two to three weeks late with all of this stuff. It kind of looks like even he realized what weak sauce it is, and decided to pull the trigger at the last second because everything else had failed.

Dr. Keith 22nd October 2020 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TahiniBinShawarma (Post 13266948)
I think it's funny when you people keep saying 10 months as if that means anything.

How long did it take you to get to the bottom of it?

Dr. Keith 22nd October 2020 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CORed (Post 13266949)
Yes, given the amount of early voting in the election, Rudy is at least two to three weeks late with all of this stuff. It kind of looks like even he realized what weak sauce it is, and decided to pull the trigger at the last second because everything else had failed.

Exactly. They knew it had to be last second since it wouldn't stand up to scrutiny, but last second doesn't work with mail in voting and early voting.

Another reason Trump wanted people to wait to vote?

TahiniBinShawarma 22nd October 2020 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Keith (Post 13266944)
But you said it was an open and shut case. The evidence was clear, to you. The facts were simple, you summarized them in a single post. Fact, document, quote law, crime!

Are you wrong or are the FBI just not good at their jobs?


Stop putting words in my mouth. Never said it was open shut. I pointed out that the emails clearly show a no interest loan and that it's not allowed as no interest. You want to debunk that, go ahead.

You assume that the FBI would raid Biden's house and arrest him at some point over the past 10 months it if it were illegal. The FBI has more to do in such an investigation. You have no clue what is in the 25,000 emails, neither do I. Therefore, I'm not putting a time limit on it. If there were crimes, it wouldn't just be Biden the FBI was investigating, and there isn't a clock ticking regardless of them receiving the laptop 10 months ago.

TahiniBinShawarma 22nd October 2020 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Keith (Post 13266951)
How long did it take you to get to the bottom of it?

You're the one saying the FBI got to the bottom of it and it was a nothing burger. Me pointing out your mysterious 10 month rule is bolderdash is what it is. Regardless of whatever words you try to insert into my mouth.


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