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-   -   Covid-19 and Politics (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=342577)

GlennB 23rd March 2020 03:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13029188)
The UK government's advice to engage in social distancing has had a profound effect here in rural areas.

On a typical Sunday we'd have a handful of walkers coming past our house all day and the local attractions like the Eagles' Nest and 365 Steps would have a few dozen in total.

Yesterday the lanes were packed with people engaged in social distancing. Car parks which are usually at 25% capacity were completely full and cars were parked down the lanes - which, because they are single track made things rather tricky for larger farm vehicles.

Thank goodness that the weather is excellent, cold but sunny. I cannot imagine how depressing it would be if the rainy, foggy, murky weather of the last three months had continued and forced us all indoors.

It seems, increasingly, to be the British way - "Have they banned being a total dickhead? No? Ah great, I'll do utterly dickish things while I still can"

:boggled:

catsmate 23rd March 2020 03:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trebuchet (Post 13027716)
Kentucky elected a Democratic governor. Tennessee did not. Guess what happened.

Unsurprising. US Republicans seem to be terrible at dealing with crises.

catsmate 23rd March 2020 03:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GlennB (Post 13028643)
When will the UK government - and people - start taking this seriously?

When they're seeing five hundred deaths daily, and eighteen-year-olds among them, so about ten days from now.

Darat 23rd March 2020 03:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GlennB (Post 13029263)
It seems, increasingly, to be the British way - "Have they banned being a total dickhead? No? Ah great, I'll do utterly dickish things while I still can"



:boggled:

PC World and Currys have decided they are an essential service so their shops will have to stay open so that everyone can get their Nintendo Switches and Dyson hair dryers.

Squeegee Beckenheim 23rd March 2020 04:11 AM

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1241729418952937474

Quote:

Gtech have stopped making vacuum cleaners and garden machinery, and now solely focus on producing VENTILATORS.

�� They will be able to produce a THOUSAND A DAY.

A 1000 a day is incredible! And all for the NHS.
Article embedded in tweet.

Squeegee Beckenheim 23rd March 2020 04:21 AM

Coronavirus bill likely to pass through the House of Commons today

A step in the right direction, but still not enough IMHO.

Cheetah 23rd March 2020 04:31 AM

How the Coronavirus Became an American Catastrophe

A harsh headline but a good timeline of how it started and unfolded and why it escalated so quickly. Lots and lots of things you can get angry about if you want. Just remember hindsight and all.

'The virologist Trevor Bedford has found evidence that the coronavirus began spreading in the United States in January. It has already infected approximately 87,000 Americans, he says.'

'COVID-19 is an American catastrophe, a slow-motion disaster only now coming into view. When its true proportions have been measured, it will make the early government response look even more outrageous than it already seems. What’s happening here, in this country, was avoidable. Nearly every flaw in America’s response to the virus has one source: America did not test enough people for COVID-19.'

Squeegee Beckenheim 23rd March 2020 04:47 AM

Despite having relatively low infection rates (624 confirmed cases, 17 deaths), Greece is going into nationwide lockdown. That article doesn't mention it but every time any person wants to go outside they have to fill out a form online beforehand. They also have to carry ID with them at all times. There's a 150 Euro fine for non-compliance, and repeated offences will lead to arrest.

According to journalist Alex Andreou these measures are widely supported by the population.

This is the kind of thing that is needed, not Boris Johnson saying "oh please keep your distance from people, otherwise we'll implement stronger measures...but we won't involve the police".

Cheetah 23rd March 2020 05:46 AM

That's great.

17 deaths though suggest a MUCH higher infection rate, could easily be 30x more infected than the official 624.


EDIT:Here is a short article (not peer reviewed yet) by the CMMID nCov working group:

Inferring cases from recent deaths


It has a table with different values for R and CFR and the corresponding results for the number of infections per single death.

GlennB 23rd March 2020 07:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim (Post 13029307)
Despite having relatively low infection rates (624 confirmed cases, 17 deaths), Greece is going into nationwide lockdown. That article doesn't mention it but every time any person wants to go outside they have to fill out a form online beforehand. They also have to carry ID with them at all times. There's a 150 Euro fine for non-compliance, and repeated offences will lead to arrest.

According to journalist Alex Andreou these measures are widely supported by the population.

This is the kind of thing that is needed, not Boris Johnson saying "oh please keep your distance from people, otherwise we'll implement stronger measures...but we won't involve the police".

There's also a free text number which registers your plan, so -
2 King Leonidas Sparta
would tell the authorities that he was going to do some local shopping. Code 6 would say he was going out to walk the dog, or similar.

But, yeah, the UK plan seems to be to do as little as posssible for as long as possible. It's looking a lot like 'mitigation lite', i.e. more or less their plan A from which they supposedly retreated in a u-turn.

Squeegee Beckenheim 23rd March 2020 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cheetah (Post 13029339)
17 deaths though suggest a MUCH higher infection rate, could easily be 30x more infected than the official 624.

Oh, of course. I was intending the death rate to be the main point of comparison. The UK is currently at 281, and we're not on lockdown anywhere, nor does any lockdown seem imminent, at least not in the next few days. I won't make a prediction for the end of the week, as things are changing rapidly everywhere.

Darat 23rd March 2020 11:57 AM

I reckon the 8:30 announcement will be complete lockdown.

Captain_Swoop 23rd March 2020 01:05 PM

Shopping trips only or 'essential workers'

The Don 23rd March 2020 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13029786)
Shopping trips only or 'essential workers'

Glad we have a big garden here at Don Towers.

Mrs Don is a local coordinator for the area support group so maybe that's a way to escape total lockdown.

What chance that all shops have to shut and we have rations delivered ?

GlennB 23rd March 2020 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13029799)
What chance that all shops have to shut and we have rations delivered ?

Negligible, I'd say. Too many potential communications problems, a jillion drivers to be recruited ...

My guess is a strengthening of the current 'please try to be nice', but falling well short of (say) the Greek model.

junkshop 23rd March 2020 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13029786)
Shopping trips only or 'essential workers'

Bingo! (Also, about bloody time)

Captain_Swoop 23rd March 2020 01:33 PM

From this evening people must stay at home except for shopping for basic necessities, daily exercise, any medical need and travelling to and from essential work.

Shops selling non-essential goods will also be shut and gatherings in public of more than two people who do not live together prohibited.

P.J. Denyer 23rd March 2020 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13029821)
From this evening people must stay at home except for shopping for basic necessities, daily exercise, any medical need and travelling to and from essential work.

Shops selling non-essential goods will also be shut and gatherings in public of more than two people who do not live together prohibited.


Who decides what is 'essential work'? I'm a dog walker, self employed, the government's help for small businesses and workers on sick pay won't help me. But I work on my own and can avoid coming into contact with people. Meanwhile, my being out means up to a dozen people aren't (including two medical doctors who's time can probably be better spent right now than walking their dogs, a teacher caring for the children of key workers and a couple one of whom recently finished chemotherapy and who is therefore partially imunocompromised).

Mind you today the village and walking routes were full of old people enjoying the warm weather....

Garrison 23rd March 2020 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13029821)
From this evening people must stay at home except for shopping for basic necessities, daily exercise, any medical need and travelling to and from essential work.

Shops selling non-essential goods will also be shut and gatherings in public of more than two people who do not live together prohibited.

Yep the hammer has finally dropped, just hope its not to late. Can't complain since people have demonstrated that the advice, 'stay home to avoid killing people', didn't apply to them, cause their busy, or its all being exaggerated, or you know they think their bravely resisting authority.

Garrison 23rd March 2020 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer (Post 13029841)
Who decides what is 'essential work'? I'm a dog walker, self employed, the government's help for small businesses and workers on sick pay won't help me. But I work on my own and can avoid coming into contact with people. Meanwhile, my being out means up to a dozen people aren't (including two medical doctors who's time can probably be better spent right now than walking their dogs, a teacher caring for the children of key workers and a couple one of whom recently finished chemotherapy and who is therefore partially imunocompromised).

Mind you today the village and walking routes were full of old people enjoying the warm weather....

Reading your list of contacts there I'm thinking you are less essential worker and more potential Covid-19 hotspot...

GlennB 23rd March 2020 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GlennB (Post 13029807)
My guess is a strengthening of the current 'please try to be nice', but falling well short of (say) the Greek model.

Never happier to be wrong. The UK blew 2 weeks of improved safety before today.

Garrison 23rd March 2020 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GlennB (Post 13029851)
Never happier to be wrong. The UK blew 2 weeks of improved safety before today.

The fundamental failing was to assume that people would take the warnings seriously and act accordingly. Instead its been an endless stream of denial and self-serving justifications to ignore the advice from so many people. Some people will still not follow the rules unless we literally have soldiers on the streets sticking guns in their faces and ordering them indoors.

P.J. Denyer 23rd March 2020 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garrison (Post 13029849)
Reading your list of contacts there I'm thinking you are less essential worker and more potential Covid-19 hotspot...

I make a point of not coming into close contact with anyone and save them having to go out themselves. They open the door, the dog runs out to me and I'm using my own leads so we're not transferring via the handles. And I have bottle of hand sanitizer on my belt (but I always do have). I thought about working from home but I don't want a dozen dogs crapping on the carpet.

It's difficult, my wife was made redundant (due in part to Brexit) last year, so I'm the only income, I've got two jobs, one as a self employed dog walker and the other as a self employed fine wine salesman at food festivals, so that's out window already.

Darat 23rd March 2020 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garrison (Post 13029865)
The fundamental failing was to assume that people would take the warnings seriously and act accordingly. Instead its been an endless stream of denial and self-serving justifications to ignore the advice from so many people. Some people will still not follow the rules unless we literally have soldiers on the streets sticking guns in their faces and ordering them indoors.


And didnít help with large employers such as Halfords and Dixons keeping their shops open (and actually lobbying for their brick and mortar stores to be classified as ďessential retailĒ) thus ensuring their tens of thousands of workers be exposed to all those people who thought whilst they canít go to work having a wander around the shops was a good way to socially isolate...

Garrison 23rd March 2020 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darat (Post 13029890)
And didnít help with large employers such as Halfords and Dixons keeping their shops open (and actually lobbying for their brick and mortar stores to be classified as ďessential retailĒ) thus ensuring their tens of thousands of workers be exposed to all those people who thought whilst they canít go to work having a wander around the shops was a good way to socially isolate...

Well the new rules are unequivocal so we'll see what happens when some hair salon or carpet shop decides they are essential.

William Parcher 23rd March 2020 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer (Post 13029841)
Who decides what is 'essential work'? I'm a dog walker, self employed, the government's help for small businesses and workers on sick pay won't help me. But I work on my own and can avoid coming into contact with people. Meanwhile, my being out means up to a dozen people aren't (including two medical doctors who's time can probably be better spent right now than walking their dogs, a teacher caring for the children of key workers and a couple one of whom recently finished chemotherapy and who is therefore partially imunocompromised).

You might want to look into the details of your UK lockdown. Here in America for the lockdowns one of the essentials is pet care. This includes things like veterinary visits, purchasing pet food and supplies, walks and exercise, etc.

I would think that a self-employed dog walker would be part of essential pet care. The dogs have to be walked and you provide an essential service for dog owners. I would suggest that in addition to carrying your personal identification you should also carry business cards or something to show that you actually are a professional dog walker rather than somebody who is just making that up.

I don't know that all of this is true but it seems logical if pet care is considered essential.

Skeptic Ginger 23rd March 2020 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim (Post 13029168)
There's a coronavirus thread in the US politics section. Posts about US politics should go in there.

Oh my gawd, we have one thread on COVID we're not supposed to bring up anything Trump and now supposedly the politics outside the US needs its own thread?

Excuse me, I didn't notice. I was trying to find the politics thread for COVID.

:rolleyes:

Maybe a mod could change the thread title, not all of us go looking for which sub-forum a thread is in.

rjh01 23rd March 2020 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garrison (Post 13029899)
Well the new rules are unequivocal so we'll see what happens when some hair salon or carpet shop decides they are essential.

In Australia we are in lockdown, but the hairdressers and beauty parlour and hardware stores are still open. What a joke.

GlennB 23rd March 2020 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 13029946)
Oh my gawd, we have one thread on COVID we're not supposed to bring up anything Trump and now supposedly the politics outside the US needs its own thread?

If you could turn that into coherent English I'm sure we'd all be grateful. Meanwhile, there are several covid threads.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 13029946)
Excuse me, I didn't notice. I was trying to find the politics thread for COVID.

:rolleyes:

Maybe a mod could change the thread title, not all of us go looking for which sub-forum a thread is in.

'Nasty woman' indeed. "Non-USA" is a bit of a clue, no?

You were serially careless and just offer a :rolleyes: ?

P.J. Denyer 23rd March 2020 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 13029935)
You might want to look into the details of your UK lockdown. Here in America for the lockdowns one of the essentials is pet care. This includes things like veterinary visits, purchasing pet food and supplies, walks and exercise, etc.

I would think that a self-employed dog walker would be part of essential pet care. The dogs have to be walked and you provide an essential service for dog owners. I would suggest that in addition to carrying your personal identification you should also carry business cards or something to show that you actually are a professional dog walker rather than somebody who is just making that up.

I don't know that all of this is true but it seems logical if pet care is considered essential.

Thank you, you reminded me to top up my business cards (I've had a pretty stable roster recently so I didn't bother refilling my wallet. I might take my statement of insurance with me as well just to be sure...

Darat 23rd March 2020 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garrison (Post 13029899)
Well the new rules are unequivocal so we'll see what happens when some hair salon or carpet shop decides they are essential.


Hang on carpet shops!? I was going to get new carpets this month, surely it canít apply to my plans?

Elaedith 23rd March 2020 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjh01 (Post 13029955)
In Australia we are in lockdown, but the hairdressers and beauty parlour and hardware stores are still open. What a joke.

I noticed that bottle shops were on the list of essential businesses to remain open.

The Atheist 23rd March 2020 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjh01 (Post 13029955)
In Australia we are in lockdown, but the hairdressers and beauty parlour and hardware stores are still open. What a joke.

I walked past a full hairdresser on the way to an empty supermarket this morning.

I was amazed. If one of the hairdressers has it, I'd think sitting directly in their line of breath for half an hour is a very good way to get it.

The Atheist 23rd March 2020 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elaedith (Post 13030036)
I noticed that bottle shops were on the list of essential businesses to remain open.

Same here.

I imagine there's a fine line between the guys who abuse their partners and families when they're drunk to the ones who abuse them when they can't get drunk.

ThatGuy11200 23rd March 2020 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garrison (Post 13029865)
The fundamental failing was to assume that people would take the warnings seriously and act accordingly. Instead its been an endless stream of denial and self-serving justifications to ignore the advice from so many people. Some people will still not follow the rules unless we literally have soldiers on the streets sticking guns in their faces and ordering them indoors.

They've had a lot of practice with Brexit.

The Don 23rd March 2020 10:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjh01 (Post 13029955)
In Australia we are in lockdown, but the hairdressers and beauty parlour and hardware stores are still open. What a joke.

Hardware shops being open makes sense IMO because houses always need repairs.

Giordano 23rd March 2020 11:13 PM

For those thinking the USA is at least now doing a good job fighting Covid-19 vs other countries, take a look at these graphs:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gtype=Homepage

And realize these are semi-log plots. Whereas the rates of deaths are beginning to decline in at least some other countries, maybe even in Italy, they are increasing in the USA! Are we in the USA idiots? Or are we led by idiots?

Once again we know how to begin to control this epidemic. There is no excuse that we are not. And if you can’t see how Trump and his circle of brown noses are primary contributors to this failure, I’ll ask: the national governments in the successful countries played key roles in their success. Who do you think are responsible for the failures in the unsuccessful countries?

Susheel 24th March 2020 01:34 AM

In India, apart from a couple of states that are trying to take pro-active measures, while also ensuring the welfare of the people living there...most of them are basically busy plugging holes when they form and indulging in patriotic claptrap. Neither of those states have the rightwing party ruling. One of them is actually the communist Party.

Squeegee Beckenheim 24th March 2020 01:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 13029946)
Oh my gawd, we have one thread on COVID we're not supposed to bring up anything Trump and now supposedly the politics outside the US needs its own thread?

Politics outside the US has its own forum. That's the forum this thread is in.

US politics has an entire forum all to itself. Posts and threads in there which are not about US politics get removed. I see no reason why posts and threads about US politics should be allowed in the non-US politics forum.

Quote:

Maybe a mod could change the thread title, not all of us go looking for which sub-forum a thread is in.
Or, perhaps, you should check where you're posting before you post, rather than insist that the rules be changed just for you.

US politics has it entire own forum. That's plenty of space to encompass US politics. This forum is for the other 194 countries in the world. It's not unreasonable to expect that the forum dedicated to the whole of the rest of the world not be bogged down with threads and posts about the country that already has an entire forum all to itself.

Squeegee Beckenheim 24th March 2020 01:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Giordano (Post 13030374)
For those thinking the USA is at least now doing a good job fighting Covid-19 vs other countries, take a look at these graphs:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gtype=Homepage

And realize these are semi-log plots. Whereas the rates of deaths are beginning to decline in at least some other countries, maybe even in Italy, they are increasing in the USA! Are we in the USA idiots? Or are we led by idiots?

Once again we know how to begin to control this epidemic. There is no excuse that we are not. And if you canít see how Trump and his circle of brown noses are primary contributors to this failure, Iíll ask: the national governments in the successful countries played key roles in their success. Who do you think are responsible for the failures in the unsuccessful countries?

This is another post that would better fit in the US politics thread, rather than the non-US one.

catsmate 24th March 2020 03:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer (Post 13029841)
Who decides what is 'essential work'?

Based on the current categories, for schools, an overly long, vague and needlessly complicated list.

Quote:

Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer (Post 13029841)
I'm a dog walker, self employed,

Based on Pets at Home's claim you should be fine.

Quote:

Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer (Post 13029841)
Mind you today the village and walking routes were full of old people enjoying the warm weather....

Let them? It may be their last...

catsmate 24th March 2020 03:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darat (Post 13029890)
And didnít help with large employers such as Halfords and Dixons keeping their shops open (and actually lobbying for their brick and mortar stores to be classified as ďessential retailĒ) thus ensuring their tens of thousands of workers be exposed to all those people who thought whilst they canít go to work having a wander around the shops was a good way to socially isolate...

My favourite bookshop in Dublin, Hodges Figgis, has closed.
:(

The Don 24th March 2020 03:13 AM

Here's the current detail on the list of essential shops in the UK:

https://assets.publishing.service.go..._-_finalVF.pdf

It seems to have been rushed out, if the typos are anything to go by.

Squeegee Beckenheim 24th March 2020 03:42 AM

https://twitter.com/amateuradam/stat...33713129639940

Quote:

14 days ago, Italy had fewer coronavirus cases than we do today. They employed similar public health measures to us. Now they have >7000 cases (366 deaths). Unless I'm missing something, this is us in a fortnight. Hopefully we won't wait that long before doing something more.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1236739529303830530

Quote:

Response from senior government source is “the Italians did several of the populist - non-science based - measures that aren’t any use. They’re who not to follow”.

Squeegee Beckenheim 24th March 2020 04:26 AM

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1242371779156459520

Quote:

NEW SNAP POLLING:

The public overwhelming back the measures announced by the Prime Minister last night.

➡️Support: 93% (including 76% who strongly support)
➡️Oppose: 4%
➡️Don’t know: 3%

These are crazy high levels of support.
Link to poll embedded in tweet.

Giordano 24th March 2020 04:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim (Post 13030437)
This is another post that would better fit in the US politics thread, rather than the non-US one.

Okay, sorry. But arenít comparisons of different countries then potentially off topic in both threads/forums?

I Iíll ask the mods to move my prior post and see what happens.

The Don 24th March 2020 09:07 AM

The whole of India on total lockdown for 21 days with people forbidden to leave their homes.

:jaw-dropp

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

Putting the millions who don't actually have homes to one side, how will people survive if they cannot leave their houses for 3 weeks ?

William Parcher 24th March 2020 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13030781)
how will people survive if they cannot leave their houses for 3 weeks ?

???

The same as every other place on lockdown. You leave the house for essentials only.

The Don 24th March 2020 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 13030791)
???

The same as every other place on lockdown. You leave the house for essentials only.

In India that doesn't seem to be permitted.

William Parcher 24th March 2020 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13030888)
In India that doesn't seem to be permitted.

I see this...

Quote:

Originally Posted by CNN
"From 12 midnight today, the entire country will go under a complete lockdown to save India and for every Indian, there will be a total ban on venturing out of your homes. Therefore, I request you to remain wherever you are in this country," Modi added.

Only essential services will be operational. These include water, electricity, health services, fire services, groceries and municipal services...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/asia/...ntl/index.html


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