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-   -   The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4 (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=359029)

Jimbo07 20th May 2022 01:21 PM

The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4
 
Mod InfoThread continued from here.
Posted By:xjx388
Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13812103)
Did they push or were they allowed? For example If ground is not good for defence then don't defend it,

The line I heard is that this is deliberate, and that Ukraine is trading ground for time.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doubt (Post 13812112)
The Ukrainians need to work on bleeding the Russians dry. Retaking territory is secondary to that. But the do need to still hold the Russians back.

This.

So long as Russia is in Ukraine, they can always counter attack. One small piece of land goes one way, then the other. Rather than occupying a particular piece of ground, Ukraine needs to degrade Russia's ability to wage war (not because I want them to, but because they'll literally never be free if they don't).

Dr.Sid 20th May 2022 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza (Post 13812111)
It might be time for Ukraine to invade Russia.

Not really. Major advantage of Ukraine is morale. That could change fast.

Klimax 20th May 2022 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aridas (Post 13811770)
Kharkiv, not Kherson. The Kherson front's been relatively stable, despite apparent efforts to change that from both sides.
...

How did I got Kherson tehre and not Kharkiv I don't now. It wasn't even recent topic.

Quote:

Originally Posted by eerok (Post 13812020)
I'm wondering if the additional arms and materiel that should flow from the US following their lend-lease act could make the difference in pushing back the Russians, or are there other factors apart from supply?

For example, Ukraine is reportedly losing fewer troops, and their morale and motivation are definitely higher than the Russians, but is it even remotely plausible for the Russians to persist until the Ukrainian forces are exhausted? They can throw a lot of fodder into this war, whereas Ukraine's population is a limited resource.

No. Phase 2 mobilization of Ukraine yielded about million of soldiers. First divisions should be already in Donbas. Compare that to Russian numbers.

crescent 20th May 2022 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13812103)
Did they push or were they allowed? For example If ground is not good for defence then don't defend it, if your line has a 'bulge' then straighten it, if there is a natural defence line then move to it etc.
If we learned anything from WW2 it is that fighting blindly for every inch of ground is a waste of men and resources.

This is a big bulge into Ukrainian lines, putting the main supply route into Severtdoneskt under Russian artillery fire. This isn't Ukraine pulling out of a salient, this is Russia pushing a big one deep into Ukrainian territory.

Its true that Ukraine didn't contest those towns. It contested Popasna very hard though. There's a word used when enemy forces get past a strongly contested line and into an area where they face little resistance - breakout. It seems possible that Russia has broken through the line of Ukrainian defense and is now pushing forces through that gap.

Here's one person suggesting concern:
Quote:

Should know more in the next 72 hours or so. If 🇷🇺 quickly continues its advance, 🇺🇦 will likely need to pull the majority of its forces out of Severnodonetsk. If not, there will be likely be a major fight for Bakhmut as both sides funnel remaining reserves into the area.
another:
Quote:

POPSNA SALIENT /2045 UTC 20 MAY/ After weeks of relative quiet, in the last 48 hrs RU forces register & expand significant gains west of Popsna. UKR loss of the heights above of Trypillia Volodymyrivka will significantly hamper defensive operations.
NBC news:
Quote:

the location of this advance is also important, he said, with the Russian forces now closer to encircling and cutting off the key city of Severodonetsk, the last major city under Ukrainian control in the Luhansk province something they have been attempting to do for weeks, Horowitz said.
There is some genuinely worrisome news here.:(

Craig4 20th May 2022 02:34 PM

The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza (Post 13812111)
It might be time for Ukraine to invade Russia.

I would argue raid into Russia but not invade. Raids into Crimea wouldn't go amiss even though that's Ukrainian territory.

Captain_Swoop 20th May 2022 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crescent (Post 13812187)
This is a big bulge into Ukrainian lines, putting the main supply route into Severtdoneskt under Russian artillery fire. This isn't Ukraine pulling out of a salient, this is Russia pushing a big one deep into Ukrainian territory.(

So the bulge is in the Russian lines and they advance in to uncontested terrain?

The 'declined centre' used effectively by Rommel against the 8th Army advance in 'Operation Crusader'

They are the ones with the over extended line ripe for encircling.

What I mean is every situation can be read two ways.

Mike! 20th May 2022 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13812291)
So the bulge is in the Russian lines and they advance in to uncontested terrain?

The 'declined centre' used effectively by Rommel against the 8th Army advance in 'Operation Crusader'

They are the ones with the over extended line ripe for encircling.

What I mean is every situation can be read two ways.

I honestly hope this is what they're doing. Let them advance then cut them off.

SpitfireIX 20th May 2022 04:51 PM

Even if the Russians do succeed in their current offensive, what next? They still won't be anywhere close to forcing Ukraine to surrender, but the Russian economy and the Russian Army will be that much closer to complete collapse.

Dr.Sid 20th May 2022 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpitfireIX (Post 13812326)
Even if the Russians do succeed in their current offensive, what next? They still won't be anywhere close to forcing Ukraine to surrender, but the Russian economy and the Russian Army will be that much closer to complete collapse.

It's not rational in any way. It's just to destroy as much of Ukraine as possible. And lives of peasants and rusty soviet vehicles are small price. The isolation is another thing, but that won't change any time soon, so why not destroy few more villages, till the peasants are completely depleted.

Captain_Swoop 20th May 2022 06:15 PM

Russia has declared victory in its months-long battle to conquer the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol.

The last fighters defending the city's Azovstal steel plant have now surrendered, Moscow officials said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61529877

a_unique_person 20th May 2022 08:50 PM

Russia, despite all it's failures, has more artillery that is relatively safe from the Ukrainian armed forces. They will keep doing what they do best, which is destroy anything that is in range. Civilians will pay the biggest price.

The Don 20th May 2022 11:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by a_unique_person (Post 13812428)
Russia, despite all it's failures, has more artillery that is relatively safe from the Ukrainian armed forces. They will keep doing what they do best, which is destroy anything that is in range. Civilians will pay the biggest price.

Sadly, this. :(

Klimax 20th May 2022 11:47 PM

Current status per ISW:
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/s...835009/photo/1

Aridas 20th May 2022 11:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Klimax (Post 13812288)
How did I got Kherson tehre and not Kharkiv I don't now. It wasn't even recent topic.

The two are quite similar, though, and, for what it's worth, I had recently mentioned Kherson in the thread, I think. Incidentally, I find myself having to recheck myself with Melitopol and Mariupol most of the time when I want to name Melitopol. I've been trying to just avoid using the names of some of the actually repeated settlement names, too, because that can get really confusing, really quick.

Quote:

Originally Posted by crescent (Post 13812289)
There is some genuinely worrisome news here.:(

Indeed. We'll see how this plays out, either way.

Captain_Swoop 21st May 2022 02:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by a_unique_person (Post 13812428)
Russia, despite all it's failures, has more artillery that is relatively safe from the Ukrainian armed forces. They will keep doing what they do best, which is destroy anything that is in range. Civilians will pay the biggest price.

That's how wars work.

Captain_Swoop 21st May 2022 04:16 AM

Moldova should be "equipped to Nato standard" to help it guard against the threat of a Russian invasion, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has said.

She said it was clear that, despite limited success in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin retained "ambitions to create a greater Russia

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61532625

theprestige 21st May 2022 06:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by a_unique_person (Post 13812428)
Russia, despite all it's failures, has more artillery that is relatively safe from the Ukrainian armed forces. They will keep doing what they do best, which is destroy anything that is in range. Civilians will pay the biggest price.

You don't say!

The point is that what's in range these days is a lot less than it used to be, a lot less than what Russia would like to be, and may well become even less in days to come.

Doubt 21st May 2022 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by a_unique_person (Post 13812428)
Russia, despite all it's failures, has more artillery that is relatively safe from the Ukrainian armed forces. They will keep doing what they do best, which is destroy anything that is in range. Civilians will pay the biggest price.

They are not safe. Ukraine has been hitting the Russian guns with drones. The speed at which that happens will increase since one of the things being sent to Ukraine is counter battery radar.

Mike! 21st May 2022 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doubt (Post 13812840)
They are not safe. Ukraine has been hitting the Russian guns with drones. The speed at which that happens will increase since one of the things being sent to Ukraine is counter battery radar.

I thought I heard/read they were also getting artillery with a greater range than the Russians are presently using against Ukraine.

Captain_Swoop 21st May 2022 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike! (Post 13812846)
I thought I heard/read they were also getting artillery with a greater range than the Russians are presently using against Ukraine.

Yes the US have sent 155mm Howitzers


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M777_howitzer

Oystein 21st May 2022 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike! (Post 13812846)
I thought I heard/read they were also getting artillery with a greater range than the Russians are presently using against Ukraine.

A general word of caution:

What we hear may not be what's really important and decisive.
What we hear is definitely biased - one way or another.
What we hear may be untrue, or only partially true, or be presented without significant caveats and qualifiers.

For example:
We have NOT been hearing much about logistics problems lately, or have we? That was a huge issue in the early weeks - when Russia was struggling.
No, Russia is concentrating the fighting close to territory it controls tightly, and thus they enjoy short and relatively safe supplies and and supply routes.
On the other hand, Ukraine increasingly suffers disruption of logistics lines (Russia fires missiles at railroads, bridges all over the country), and also has very long supply lines - are we certain that Ukraine can move all that heavy gear, keep it fueled and stocked with the requisite kinds and numbers of ammo?

I am convinced Ukraine and her US/NATO intelligence supporters keep very quiet about the really important details of what is and isn't supplied and deployed.

[/standard disclaimer]

Childlike Empress 21st May 2022 02:10 PM

Visit the former Azov HQ in Yurevka near Mariupol:

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE

Childlike Empress 21st May 2022 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpitfireIX (Post 13812326)
Even if the Russians do succeed in their current offensive, what next? They still won't be anywhere close to forcing Ukraine to surrender, but the Russian economy and the Russian Army will be that much closer to complete collapse.


It isn't about forcing Ukraine to surrender, it is about de-militarization and de-nazification of Ukraine. Those are the stated goals. At least the latter seems to be pretty much close to success if you watch the videos I just posted above.

Evil Incarnated even stated several times that he doesn't care if Kolomoiski's Comedian stays in place or not.

eerok 21st May 2022 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Childlike Empress (Post 13813000)
It isn't about forcing Ukraine to surrender, it is about de-militarization and de-nazification of Ukraine. Those are the stated goals.

But most of us know those are lies.

dasmiller 21st May 2022 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Childlike Empress (Post 13813000)
It isn't about forcing Ukraine to surrender, it is about de-militarization and de-nazification of Ukraine. Those are the stated goals. At least the latter seems to be pretty much close to success if you watch the videos I just posted above.

In 2014, Ukraine's military didn't put up any significant resistance. In 2022, Ukraine's military has fought the vaunted Russian military to a standstill. In fact, due to the Russian 'special operation,' Ukraine's military has received large quantities of advanced weapons that they probably never would have gotten otherwise.

I don't think the 'de-militarization' part is going very well for Russia.

slyjoe 21st May 2022 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dasmiller (Post 13813085)
In 2014, Ukraine's military didn't put up any significant resistance. In 2022, Ukraine's military has fought the vaunted Russian military to a standstill. In fact, due to the Russian 'special operation,' Ukraine's military has received large quantities of advanced weapons that they probably never would have gotten otherwise.

I don't think the 'de-militarization' part is going very well for Russia.

More like the Russians "re-militarized" Ukraine.

shemp 21st May 2022 07:54 PM

Tip: If your army has a new piece of big artillery, don't do a news report showing its position. It might get blown up.

https://twitter.com/ukikaski/status/1528100518547054595

:dl: MORONS!

Aridas 21st May 2022 09:47 PM

To poke at the apparent current state of the Popasna salient -

Quote:

Popasna Update: Russians are attacking the following towns(marked in yellow on the map):
Troits'ke, Plypchatyne, Volodymryivka(Heavily Contested), Vasylivka, Nyrkove, Vrubivka, Katerynivka.
Russians are trying to advance on the bigger towns of Zolote and Hirs'ke with no success.
No direct further gains yet, though, by the look of it. This splitting of forces is again reminiscent of Izyum, though, and also gives the Ukrainian artillery a lot more opportunities to whittle away at Russian forces.

Wildy 22nd May 2022 01:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Childlike Empress (Post 13813000)
It isn't about forcing Ukraine to surrender, it is about de-militarization and de-nazification of Ukraine. Those are the stated goals. At least the latter seems to be pretty much close to success if you watch the videos I just posted above.

So where does the land grab enter into it?

Lord Emsworth 22nd May 2022 01:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shemp (Post 13813186)
Tip: If your army has a new piece of big artillery, don't do a news report showing its position. It might get blown up.

https://twitter.com/ukikaski/status/1528100518547054595

:dl: MORONS!

And if I am not mistaken, a similar thing happened to that ship (Saratov?) in Berdyansk(?). Maybe even the same guy?

a_unique_person 22nd May 2022 01:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Childlike Empress (Post 13813000)
It isn't about forcing Ukraine to surrender, it is about de-militarization and de-nazification of Ukraine. Those are the stated goals. At least the latter seems to be pretty much close to success if you watch the videos I just posted above.

Evil Incarnated even stated several times that he doesn't care if Kolomoiski's Comedian stays in place or not.

It's about removing all things Ukraine from Ukraine.

Captain_Swoop 22nd May 2022 02:24 AM

The Ukrainian government says it won't agree a ceasefire deal with Russia that involves giving up territory.
Kyiv would not follow calls in the West for an urgent ceasefire that involved Russian forces remaining in territory they occupy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

jimbob 22nd May 2022 02:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pixel42 (Post 13813273)
There are far right crackpots in every country in the world, including Russia. As an excuse to invade another country, it's about as lame as it's possible to get.

Remember the head of the Wagner group, which is riddled with Nazi worshipers and who has SS rank badges tattooed on his body in the correct location for SS uniforms and who has Kremlin approval. Mainly because it seems to be their deniable mercenary group.

Jack by the hedge 22nd May 2022 04:06 AM

But the Special Military Witchhunt is only a hunt for Ukrainian witches. Stop looking at those Russian ones. And the demilitarisation aspect is proceeding to plan except for the single detail that the intended side is massively rearming while the other side is disarming itself piece by piece. On balance there are fewer weapons in the world; Russia's gift to the world.

Captain_Swoop 22nd May 2022 05:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shemp (Post 13813186)
Tip: If your army has a new piece of big artillery, don't do a news report showing its position. It might get blown up.

https://twitter.com/ukikaski/status/1528100518547054595

:dl: MORONS!

It shows the importance of fire and movement.
What's the point of putting the weapon an a vehicle if you are just going to leave it in one place to be targeted?

Do we know that is the same vehicle?

ThatGuy11200 22nd May 2022 05:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13813347)
It shows the importance of fire and movement.
What's the point of putting the weapon an a vehicle if you are just going to leave it in one place to be targeted?

Do we know that is the same vehicle?

It would be funnier if it isn't. To think that the original repositioned itself after firing, only for another to drive up to the same location afterwards.

I wouldn't put it past the Russians to misunderstand the point of 'fire and move'.

Captain_Swoop 22nd May 2022 06:55 AM

It doesn't look like the same location.
Chances are it is the same as there are only very few of them.

Jack by the hedge 22nd May 2022 07:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13813398)
It doesn't look like the same location.
Chances are it is the same as there are only very few of them.

Agreed. It's plausibly the same general location but I can't identify any features that match the buildings or indeed identify the vehicle. May well be a true story but the video is not proof so far as I can see. In the last few seconds as the view widens we can see it's a larger group of buildings, with fires in other places too, so it's a larger attack than a single strike on a specific vehicle target.

Captain_Swoop 22nd May 2022 07:38 AM

Russia has only 10 of them operational (well, now they have 9)

Craig4 22nd May 2022 07:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge (Post 13813409)
Agreed. It's plausibly the same general location but I can't identify any features that match the buildings or indeed identify the vehicle. May well be a true story but the video is not proof so far as I can see. In the last few seconds as the view widens we can see it's a larger group of buildings, with fires in other places too, so it's a larger attack than a single strike on a specific vehicle target.

There's another video further down that shows the whole engagement. It did move from the original spot but it was in the same building complex when the Ukrainians took it out.


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