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-   -   Covid-19 and Politics (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=342577)

Darat 14th March 2020 04:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ivor the Engineer (Post 13019724)
The UK has a dedicated agency for public health who have been planning for pandemics for years. That some or many people don't like the plan doesn't equate to inaction, total or otherwise.

I agree but there really does seem some disconnect to me. It's about the testing. We need everyone who has to self isolate to be tested. That way we will know the extent of the infections and have an "army" of people that can ensure critical services and the like can continue because we know they have had the virus.

Captain_Swoop 14th March 2020 04:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ivor the Engineer (Post 13019724)
The UK has a dedicated agency for public health who have been planning for pandemics for years. That some or many people don't like the plan doesn't equate to inaction, total or otherwise.

Yes it's do as little as possible because there isn't anything left after 10 years of austerity to do anything.

Captain_Swoop 14th March 2020 04:14 AM

Trump Retweeted

Kayleigh McEnany
@kayleighmcenany
When Joe Biden was in charge of the H1N1 Swine Flu epidemic, this happened in America:
60.8 MILLION infected
274,304 hospitalized
12,469 died
By contrast, President @realDonaldTrump has led, taking unprecedented action to stop the coronavirus & protect Americans!

Joe Biden just lied, saying coronavirus tests should be in the millions, not thousands.
Has anyone told Joe that 1 million tests have already been distributed, with 4 million distributed by the end of the week?

Team Trump (Text TRUMP to 88022)
@TeamTrump
MUST READ: Joe Biden Plagiarizes President @realDonaldTrump’s #Coronavirus Plan!
Joe Biden Plagiarizes President Trump’s Coronavirus Plan
Incompetent Biden bizarrely calls on President Trump to do things he’s already done.
donaldjtrump.com

Ivor the Engineer 14th March 2020 04:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darat (Post 13019726)
I agree but there really does seem some disconnect to me. It's about the testing. We need everyone who has to self isolate to be tested. That way we will know the extent of the infections and have an "army" of people that can ensure critical services and the like can continue because we know they have had the virus.

My soon to be wife is a GP and we were talking about just that over breakfast. Other than deliberately infecting the workforce I doubt there would be sufficient numbers to handle the workload in time to make a significant difference.

Ivor the Engineer 14th March 2020 04:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13019728)
Yes it's do as little as possible because there isn't anything left after 10 years of austerity to do anything.

I realise people are scared, but do finger-pointing dramatic narratives like the above do any good whatsoever?

Darat 14th March 2020 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ivor the Engineer (Post 13019734)
I realise people are scared, but do finger-pointing dramatic narratives like the above do any good whatsoever?

This is meant to be the politics thread and I think that is a valid criticism.

The NHSs have always been lean and efficient and 10 years ago the NHSs were in a good place, excess capacity - which you need - fully funded, staffing was still a bit of an issue in some areas. In the last 10 years we have lost all of that. As I've described it elsewhere, there was never any fat to cut so the last ten years have been cutting the muscle of the NHSs away (and at times hacking into the very bones of the services) and we now are faced with a situation that requires a fit and fully functional NHSs and we no longer have them.

dudalb 14th March 2020 01:51 PM

UK and Ireland just added to the US travel restrictions on Europe
France shutting down all entertainment facalities, even restaurants.
I think Boris is going to have to do somethng now...as much as he hates to.

pharphis 14th March 2020 02:29 PM

2 days ago Ontario, Canada announced closure of public schools for 2 additional weeks (march break is about to start and lasts a week, each year). I'm guessing it will extend much longer, and things might convert fully to online education (now's the time).

Garrison 14th March 2020 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 13020097)
UK and Ireland just added to the US travel restrictions on Europe
France shutting down all entertainment facalities, even restaurants.
I think Boris is going to have to do somethng now...as much as he hates to.

Yeah it looks a ban on public gatherings is on the cards for early next week. I think we'll get by mainly because Boris hasn't had time to get rid of all the professionals in Whitehall. I'm less sanguine about will happen when the virus spikes in the USA.

Ivor the Engineer 14th March 2020 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darat (Post 13019823)
This is meant to be the politics thread and I think that is a valid criticism.

The NHSs have always been lean and efficient and 10 years ago the NHSs were in a good place, excess capacity - which you need - fully funded, staffing was still a bit of an issue in some areas. In the last 10 years we have lost all of that. As I've described it elsewhere, there was never any fat to cut so the last ten years have been cutting the muscle of the NHSs away (and at times hacking into the very bones of the services) and we now are faced with a situation that requires a fit and fully functional NHSs and we no longer have them.

Shame labour made themselves unelectable.

Darat 14th March 2020 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ivor the Engineer (Post 13020156)
Shame labour made themselves unelectable.

Which has nothing to do with the decision to degrade our NHSs, no one forced the government to make such (effectively huge cuts), force absolutely stupid "reforms" onto the likes of GPs and create another tier of bureaucracy that adds in admin and management into non-medical areas.

In regards to the current situation it matters not one whit to me which party was in government - I'm concerned about what the government will do. Sadly the last few governments for ideological reasons decided to degrade our NHSs meaning they are now less able to cope with the current situation than they would have been 10 years ago.

We are told "The NHS will get everything it needs". Unfortunately that would require a time machine to go back and undo all the stupidity and the ideological based cuts.

Lukraak_Sisser 14th March 2020 11:29 PM

At least most of us in Europe can be assured of some form of accessible healthcare and the right to be paid if we're forced to sit at home. Though I realize that the slimming of both healthcare and social security by the various right wing governments has put a lot people out of reach of one or both.

In the US though? If the Democrats are smart they point out that taxing the rich to pay for a social security net and healthcare actually does mostly help people who are not at fault for their financial troubles. And given that a significant part of Trump's voters are people who will now face financial troubles due to having no healthcare it might help them.

ThatGuy11200 15th March 2020 02:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pharphis (Post 13020133)
2 days ago Ontario, Canada announced closure of public schools for 2 additional weeks (march break is about to start and lasts a week, each year). I'm guessing it will extend much longer, and things might convert fully to online education (now's the time).

I work at a university and they've suspended all face-to-face teaching, as of last week. All non-practical teaching is moving online (I don't know what's happening with practical work) and closed room exams will be replaced with coursework or online assessments.

Garrison 15th March 2020 03:46 AM

Just to make matters a little worse:

Coronavirus: US airports in disarray over screening

As the article points out:

Quote:

Some public health experts have noted that waiting in crowded terminals could potentially lead to more people becoming infected with the virus.
So yeah its all going swimmingly and the USA is nowhere the kind of levels of Covid19 cases(relative to population) that we are seeing in the UK. Thank god the President delivered on his promise that everyone would have great healthcare plans...

The Don 15th March 2020 04:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garrison (Post 13020599)
Just to make matters a little worse:

Coronavirus: US airports in disarray over screening

As the article points out:



So yeah its all going swimmingly and the USA is nowhere the kind of levels of Covid19 cases(relative to population) that we are seeing in the UK. Thank god the President delivered on his promise that everyone would have great healthcare plans...

Then again, with so little testing done to date, who knows what the current incidence in the US really is....

The Don 15th March 2020 04:18 AM

Nick Hancock, the UK Health Secretary is floundering as usual. He said this morning that all over 70s, and all other high risk individuals will have to self-isolate for an indeterminate period of time at an unknown point in the future....

..... making it up as they go along as usual. :mad:

Darat 15th March 2020 04:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garrison (Post 13020599)
Just to make matters a little worse:

Coronavirus: US airports in disarray over screening

As the article points out:



So yeah its all going swimmingly and the USA is nowhere the kind of levels of Covid19 cases(relative to population) that we are seeing in the UK. Thank god the President delivered on his promise that everyone would have great healthcare plans...

Seems as if they want as many returning people to infect each other!

dann 15th March 2020 05:04 AM

Sorry about that, NZ: Coronavirus in NZ: Danish tourist visited Queenstown adventure attraction, restaurant (NZ Herald, March 15, 2020)
Dansk kvinde bringer coronasmitte til New Zealands største ø (DR.dk, March 15, 2020)

dann 15th March 2020 05:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darat (Post 13020620)
Seems as if they want as many returning people to infect each other!


Grotesque!

Tætte køer og timelang ventetid: Hjemvendte amerikanere strandet i lufthavne (DR.dk, March 15, 2020)

Darat 15th March 2020 05:15 AM

Could be some very nasty business between the USS and Germany

https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/artic...off-Firma.html

dann 15th March 2020 05:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darat (Post 13019726)
I agree but there really does seem some disconnect to me. It's about the testing. We need everyone who has to self isolate to be tested. That way we will know the extent of the infections and have an "army" of people that can ensure critical services and the like can continue because we know they have had the virus.


On March 12, they stopped doing that here:
Quote:

After March 12, only people who are seriously ill have been tested, so the actual number of people who are infected is actually higher.
Nyeste corona-tal fra Danmark og verden: Så mange er smittede, døde og indlagte (TV2, March 15, 2020)

dann 15th March 2020 05:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darat (Post 13020624)
Could be some very nasty business between the USS and Germany

https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/artic...off-Firma.html


It sounds very much like him!

Quote:

Trump tue alles, um einen Impfstoff für die USA zu bekommen. „Aber eben nur für die USA“, heißt es in der Bundesregierung.

Not even in this situation does he seem to consider that international cooperation might be a good idea.

Ivor the Engineer 15th March 2020 06:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13020611)
Nick Hancock, the UK Health Secretary is floundering as usual. He said this morning that all over 70s, and all other high risk individuals will have to self-isolate for an indeterminate period of time at an unknown point in the future....

..... making it up as they go along as usual. :mad:

I believe they really are trying to follow the scientific advice and do the best they can. Unfortunately for the politicians that scientific advice is a bit out of sync with the rest of the world, so they have to keep telling the population that the measures that are currently in force in many countries around the world are coming to the UK soon.

The plan requires quite careful timing to work; we want the peak to be around spring and early summer. Plus they are taking advice from behavioural psychologists as to how long the British public will stick to the more draconian measures.

But if your brain is wired to hate the conservatives irrespective of the issue then nothing I or anyone else says will change your attitude and beliefs.

We really need to be working together as a country on this, not bickering based on our ideological biases, pointing the finger before it's even started to get really bad...

Captain_Swoop 15th March 2020 06:37 AM

Trump had a negative test result apparently.
He was definitely infected but after spending 10 minutes in him the virus took its own life.

Darat 15th March 2020 06:42 AM

What need to being doing is preparing. Government should be in parliament tomorrow getting legislation passed to take extreme measures. I'd like to see them request the power to grab the delivery services such as Amazon and Tescos. If over 70s have to self isolate for months we need to be delivering them food and other supplies. If we need more hospital beds get the power to requisition them from the private companies. And so on.

Times like this we need to be able to act like a "control economy " and they need to start doing that now.

If the plans never need to be put in place fantastic, but we need them ready and waiting to kick in the day they are needed.

We can be doing so much more than we are apparently doing.

Ivor the Engineer 15th March 2020 06:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darat (Post 13020670)
What need to being doing is preparing. Government should be in parliament tomorrow getting legislation passed to take extreme measures. I'd like to see them request the power to grab the delivery services such as Amazon and Tescos. If over 70s have to self isolate for months we need to be delivering them food and other supplies. If we need more hospital beds get the power to requisition them from the private companies. And so on.

Times like this we need to be able to act like a "control economy " and they need to start doing that now.

If the plans never need to be put in place fantastic, but we need them ready and waiting to kick in the day they are needed.

We can be doing so much more than we are apparently doing.

There are plans to do all of that. :confused:

ETA: Here you go: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51895873

Quote:

Every Briton over the age of 70 will be told "within the coming weeks" to stay at home for an extended period to shield them from coronavirus, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has said.

He told the BBC the advice will not come into force just yet but when it does it will last "a very long time".

Wartime-like measures will ask car makers to produce medical equipment and turn hotels into hospitals, he said.

"Every single person in this country is going to be affected," he warned.

Over-70s - and younger people with certain health conditions - will need to remain at home and have groceries and vital medication delivered, the health secretary said.

GlennB 15th March 2020 07:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ivor the Engineer (Post 13020655)
I believe they really are trying to follow the scientific advice and do the best they can. Unfortunately for the politicians that scientific advice is a bit out of sync with the rest of the world, so they have to keep telling the population that the measures that are currently in force in many countries around the world are coming to the UK soon.

The plan requires quite careful timing to work; we want the peak to be around spring and early summer. Plus they are taking advice from behavioural psychologists as to how long the British public will stick to the more draconian measures.

But if your brain is wired to hate the conservatives irrespective of the issue then nothing I or anyone else says will change your attitude and beliefs.

We really need to be working together as a country on this, not bickering based on our ideological biases, pointing the finger before it's even started to get really bad...

My arse. It's nothing to do with ideological bias, just science.

I’m an epidemiologist. When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire.

Trebuchet 15th March 2020 07:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darat (Post 13020624)
Could be some very nasty business between the USS and Germany

https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/artic...off-Firma.html

Google couldn't translate. Can someone give us the gist?

Ivor the Engineer 15th March 2020 07:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GlennB (Post 13020679)

So do you believe the experts (including behavioural psychologists) the UK government are consulting are coming out with idiotic advice or the government are ignoring them?

Captain_Swoop 15th March 2020 07:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ivor the Engineer (Post 13020673)
There are plans to do all of that. :confused:

ETA: Here you go: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51895873

How are car makers supposed to produce 'medical equipment'?

Hotels in to hospitals?

How are things going to be delivered?

Vague statements aren't 'plans' and where is the legislation to compel companies to provide resources?

The Great Zaganza 15th March 2020 07:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trebuchet (Post 13020681)
Google couldn't translate. Can someone give us the gist?

Basically, the Trump administration is pressuring and bribing German scientists and research companies that are developing the vaccine to agree to give the US sole patent rights to any vaccine developed.

GlennB 15th March 2020 07:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ivor the Engineer (Post 13020682)
So do you believe the experts (including behavioural psychologists) the UK government are consulting are coming out with idiotic advice or the government are ignoring them?

Do you understand what 'herd immunity' is and how it's acquired? I can't see from here that you have the first clue.

The government cherry-picked comments from a limited number of advisers, the world scratched its head (or laughed), the government started to row back.

"The first signs of unease in Number 10 came on Friday night when journalists were briefed that mass gatherings would be banned, just 24 hours after Mr Johnson and his advisers insisted such a move would be of little merit.

Indeed Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, had announced on Thursday that the first set of measures to be implemented in Britain’s “delay” strategy were “actually rather large”.

He said that advising people with a cough or fever to self-isolate for seven days was “a big change”. But that advice, along with a suggestion that school trips should be stopped and the elderly should avoid cruise ships, fell massively short of what other countries were doing."

The Great Zaganza 15th March 2020 07:40 AM

Here is a US report about the US attempt to monopolize the vaccine research

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/15/...g-vaccine.html

Lukraak_Sisser 15th March 2020 07:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza (Post 13020686)
Basically, the Trump administration is pressuring and bribing German scientists and research companies that are developing the vaccine to agree to give the US sole patent rights to any vaccine developed.

Can't have dirty foreigners have something the US does not. Especially not from the EU.

Ivor the Engineer 15th March 2020 08:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GlennB (Post 13020688)
Do you understand what 'herd immunity' is and how it's acquired? I can't see from here that you have the first clue.

The government cherry-picked comments from a limited number of advisers, the world scratched its head (or laughed), the government started to row back.

"The first signs of unease in Number 10 came on Friday night when journalists were briefed that mass gatherings would be banned, just 24 hours after Mr Johnson and his advisers insisted such a move would be of little merit.

Indeed Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, had announced on Thursday that the first set of measures to be implemented in Britain’s “delay” strategy were “actually rather large”.

He said that advising people with a cough or fever to self-isolate for seven days was “a big change”. But that advice, along with a suggestion that school trips should be stopped and the elderly should avoid cruise ships, fell massively short of what other countries were doing."

So you find an article by an expert in one particular field that is relevant and assume that because the UK government has a (slightly) different plan (mostly in timing) that they have cherry-picked advice?

Perhaps a more plausible explanation for the UK's slightly different approach is that the government consulted multiple experts from different relevant branches of science, logistics and economics.

As I write DSP code for a living I'm fairly confident that not only that I understand how here immunity is acquired, but I could write a simulation of a virus passing through a population and show here immunity developing as the distance between susceptible individuals increases.

But if it suits you better to assume I'm ignorant or thick, feel free. ;)

Darat 15th March 2020 08:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ivor the Engineer (Post 13020673)
There are plans to do all of that. :confused:

ETA: Here you go: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51895873

No that is politicians speaking. Vagueness to sound as if they are doing something.

The Don 15th March 2020 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13020683)
How are car makers supposed to produce 'medical equipment'?

Presumably they just switch the 3D printers they use to produce cars to produce ventilators instead, simple :rolleyes:

Hancock called for the Blitz spirit in a Torygraph article. Maybe he thinks that if car factories produced Spitfires, they can produce ventilators. Of course it did take many months and brilliant leadership to achieve that. Surely Boris Johnson's cabinet of all the talents can do the same in days.

catsmate 15th March 2020 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ivor the Engineer (Post 13020682)
So do you believe the experts (including behavioural psychologists) the UK government are consulting are coming out with idiotic advice or the government are ignoring them?

Given the stupidity of the plan, it really doesn't matter.

catsmate 15th March 2020 08:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ivor the Engineer (Post 13020710)
So you find an article by an expert in one particular field that is relevant and assume that because the UK government has a (slightly) different plan (mostly in timing) that they have cherry-picked advice?

Perhaps a more plausible explanation for the UK's slightly different approach is that the government consulted multiple experts from different relevant branches of science, logistics and economics.

As I write DSP code for a living I'm fairly confident that not only that I understand how here immunity is acquired, but I could write a simulation of a virus passing through a population and show here immunity developing as the distance between susceptible individuals increases.

But if it suits you better to assume I'm ignorant or thick, feel free. ;)

Bollocks. The "herd immunity" plan has he excoriated by numerous experts.

GlennB 15th March 2020 08:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ivor the Engineer (Post 13020710)
As I write DSP code for a living I'm fairly confident that not only that I understand how here immunity is acquired, but I could write a simulation of a virus passing through a population and show here immunity developing as the distance between susceptible individuals increases.

Other governments aren't taking the 'herd immunity' approach.

But if you want to do some calculations, try this:

Take the UK population as around 60M. Take the infection rate to create herd immunity as 70%. Look at the hospitalisation and intensive-care requirements from other badly-affected countries and apply those to the number of UK victims. Divide the resulting figure by 100, just because we're being insanely optimistic and probably need mental treatment. Compare that final figure to the 4,000 intensive care beds in UK hospitals, 4/5ths of which are already occupied.

Realise that the plan was for this to happen quickly, to prevent a second wave of infections next winter.

Say "******* hell, that's bonkers!"

Planigale 15th March 2020 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ivor the Engineer (Post 13020655)
I believe they really are trying to follow the scientific advice and do the best they can. Unfortunately for the politicians that scientific advice is a bit out of sync with the rest of the world, so they have to keep telling the population that the measures that are currently in force in many countries around the world are coming to the UK soon.

The plan requires quite careful timing to work; we want the peak to be around spring and early summer. Plus they are taking advice from behavioural psychologists as to how long the British public will stick to the more draconian measures.

But if your brain is wired to hate the conservatives irrespective of the issue then nothing I or anyone else says will change your attitude and beliefs.

We really need to be working together as a country on this, not bickering based on our ideological biases, pointing the finger before it's even started to get really bad...

:thumbsup:

Planigale 15th March 2020 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GlennB (Post 13020679)

He is a non-medically qualified researcher in bacterial genetics of antibiotic resistance. Not a clinician, not a virologist and certainly not someone who has published on the mathematical modelling of the transmission of infectious diseases. So slightly less well qualified than I am to comment.

Captain_Swoop 15th March 2020 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13020735)
Presumably they just switch the 3D printers they use to produce cars to produce ventilators instead, simple :rolleyes:

Hancock called for the Blitz spirit in a Torygraph article. Maybe he thinks that if car factories produced Spitfires, they can produce ventilators. Of course it did take many months and brilliant leadership to achieve that. Surely Boris Johnson's cabinet of all the talents can do the same in days.

But car factories didn't produce Spitfires, Spitfire factories produced them. What they did is build extra factories.

car factories were working full out to build motor vehicles.

Planigale 15th March 2020 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13020735)
Presumably they just switch the 3D printers they use to produce cars to produce ventilators instead, simple :rolleyes:

Hancock called for the Blitz spirit in a Torygraph article. Maybe he thinks that if car factories produced Spitfires, they can produce ventilators. Of course it did take many months and brilliant leadership to achieve that. Surely Boris Johnson's cabinet of all the talents can do the same in days.

Famously Ian Donald the inventor of ultrasound and an obstetrician needed a ventilator for a sick baby, went home and built one in his garden shed over the weekend. Ventilators are not complex they are basically servo controlled fans. I bet Dyson could make excellent ventilators.
https://history.rcplondon.ac.uk/insp...ans/ian-donald

Darat 15th March 2020 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Planigale (Post 13020778)
Famously Ian Donald the inventor of ultrasound and an obstetrician needed a ventilator for a sick baby, went home and built one in his garden shed over the weekend. Ventilators are not complex they are basically servo controlled fans. I bet Dyson could make excellent ventilators.
https://history.rcplondon.ac.uk/insp...ans/ian-donald

Where?

Trebuchet 15th March 2020 09:31 AM

Republican Lt Governor of Florida whines because Vail Resort has closed while he was driving there, spoiling his vacation. Dem Governor of Colorado rips him a new one.

Darat 15th March 2020 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trebuchet (Post 13020794)
Republican Lt Governor of Florida whines because Vail Resort has closed while he was driving there, spoiling his vacation. Dem Governor of Colorado rips him a new one.

Hang on a moment - you mean this nonsense applies to one of US!?!?!?!?! That is not the way this is meant to happen.

Captain_Swoop 15th March 2020 10:11 AM

Trump Tweets

We are doing very precise Medical Screenings at our airports. Pardon the interruptions and delays, we are moving as quickly as possible, but it is very important that we be vigilant and careful. We must get it right. Safety first!

There will be a News Conference by the CoronaVirus Task Force today at the White House, 5 P.M. @VP

We are working closely with the Governors of our Country’s great States, which are a very big factor. They are working hard, along with us, to get the job properly done.....

....The USA was never set up for this, just look at the catastrophe of the H1N1 Swine Flu (Biden in charge, 17,000 people lost, very late response time), but it soon will be. Great decision to close our China, and other, borders early. Saved many lives!

The Don 15th March 2020 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Planigale (Post 13020778)
Famously Ian Donald the inventor of ultrasound and an obstetrician needed a ventilator for a sick baby, went home and built one in his garden shed over the weekend. Ventilators are not complex they are basically servo controlled fans. I bet Dyson could make excellent ventilators.
https://history.rcplondon.ac.uk/insp...ans/ian-donald

Building one as a hobby decades ago - possible.

Building thousands which comply with all the appropriate legislation is a completely different kettle of fish unless we're going to bet our lives on hobbyists projects.

Planigale 15th March 2020 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GlennB (Post 13020753)
Other governments aren't taking the 'herd immunity' approach.

But if you want to do some calculations, try this:

Take the UK population as around 60M. Take the infection rate to create herd immunity as 70%. Look at the hospitalisation and intensive-care requirements from other badly-affected countries and apply those to the number of UK victims. Divide the resulting figure by 100, just because we're being insanely optimistic and probably need mental treatment. Compare that final figure to the 4,000 intensive care beds in UK hospitals, 4/5ths of which are already occupied.

Realise that the plan was for this to happen quickly, to prevent a second wave of infections next winter.

Say "******* hell, that's bonkers!"

But it is worse if the epidemic peaks in winter. We have no more ITU beds and also have to cope with the winter surge in other respiratory viruses. Many ITU beds are occupied by high risk elective surgery, this can be delayed to free up beds. Covid 19 has no cure. It is not clear that better ITU would save those who die. ITUs in the UK are quite reluctant to take elderly patients with co-morbidities, I am not sure that if an 80 year old with heart failure and diabetes developed severe pneumonia they would be ventilated at the best of times, SARS CoV 2 may be the cause of pneumonia but if it was flu or legionella it would not make any difference.

The best option is to allow the epidemic to proceed but to slow its advance. But not too slowly. You don't want to stop it. Protect the vulnerable as best as you can and try to ensure the herd immunity rises to a point where SARS CoV 2 ceases to circulate. Stopping the epidemic will just result in a recurrence when people come out of lock down.

The danger is the government will lose its nerve under public pressure from the ill-informed commentators like the associate professor of epidemiology quoted above who is not an actual epidemiologist (nor virologist).


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