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-   -   Continuation The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread Part 4 (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=354459)

marting 28th October 2021 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zooterkin (Post 13641946)
An update from ZOE on why their numbers are so much higher.

Could be worse. We in the USA tests far fewer relative to cases than the UK. And the UK does much more full genomic decodes as well. Same problem with the lateral flow tests not being reported officially and we don't have ZOE.

Still, the USA decline is real. Unclear why the differences between the USA and UK. Delta plus might be a part of it but a small part at most.

The Atheist 28th October 2021 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zooterkin (Post 13641946)
An update from ZOE on why their numbers are so much higher.

I think that's largely irrelevant, because we've known from the very start that numbers are well short of reality, so we're not comparing like with like.

Meanwhile, the week-on-week official numbers continue their substantial decrease today.

Puppycow 28th October 2021 09:14 PM

Looking for the peak: the cautious optimism over stalling UK Covid cases (The Guardian)

Quote:

Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Wednesday, Prof John Edmunds, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said work by three groups of researchers who have modelled potential scenarios pointed in a similar direction.

“If you take the consensus, we all feel that we might see cases either levelling off or falling in the next few weeks,” said Edmunds, who sits on Sage.

One reason for that is the expected decline of cases in children – the group where infection levels are highest. “The epidemic in the last few months has been really driven by huge numbers of cases in children … and that will eventually lead to high levels of immunity,” Edmunds said.
Is it still the case that only people aged 18 and older are eligible to be vaccinated in the UK?

Oh, apparently children aged 12-17 can be given a single dose, but not a second dose, as of now. Source.

Do they have data that I am unaware of that a single dose is sufficient for children?

Right now, children are driving the epidemic in the UK, according to a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. I would think it might be advisable to get the children vaccinated ASAP.

Even very young kids are given other vaccines, like MMR, varicella, and a host of others that are given in early childhood.

Is there any risk? Probably a minimal risk, but I bet it is lower than the risk of just waiting for them to get exposed to the Delta virus, and then bring it home to their families.

marting 28th October 2021 09:50 PM

A very detailed Lancet paper on Delta household transmisson where all contacts of an index case were tested daily and PCR-RT Cts were logged. Vaccination status of index and all contacts were also logged.

This is by far the best work I've seen. Daily tests provide insight into transmission dynamics.

Community transmission and viral load kinetics of the SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in the UK: a prospective, longitudinal, cohort study

https://els-jbs-prod-cdn.jbs.elsevie...5425926927.pdf

Quote:

Discussion
Households are the site of most SARS-CoV-2 transmission
globally.19 In our cohort of densely sampled household
contacts exposed to the delta variant, SAR was 38% in
unvaccinated contacts and 25% in fully vaccinated
contacts.
I found this interesting:

Quote:

All participants had non-severe ambulatory illness or were asymptomatic.
The proportion of asymptomatic cases did not differ among fully vaccinated, partially vaccinated, and unvaccinated delta group.

angrysoba 28th October 2021 11:28 PM

Not wanting to flog a dead horse but Gideon M-K has written a short article discrediting some of the recent claims about vitamin D being a useful anti-Covid supplement:

https://gidmk.medium.com/vitamin-d-c...y-bc0a1e7891d8

Puppycow 28th October 2021 11:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by angrysoba (Post 13642320)
Not wanting to flog a dead horse but Gideon M-K has written a short article discrediting some of the recent claims about vitamin D being a useful anti-Covid supplement:

https://gidmk.medium.com/vitamin-d-c...y-bc0a1e7891d8

I'm flummoxed. Is anyone actually making the claim that

NM, I see that someone really is making that claim.

I've been taking it anyway because I figure it can't hurt, and might help.

Aridas 29th October 2021 12:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Puppycow (Post 13642326)
I'm flummoxed. Is anyone actually making the claim that

NM, I see that someone really is making that claim.

I've been taking it anyway because I figure it can't hurt, and might help.

Having sufficient Vitamin D intake is an overall good thing in a bunch of ways, regardless, and will probably help in a general sense.

Yes, though, Vitamin D has been seized upon by some (especially of the CT persuasion) as a miracle cure/preventative, like so many other things that have been seized on. It's definitely not a ready "cure" though, given that it takes quite a fair while of sufficient intake to fix a deficiency.

Puppycow 29th October 2021 12:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marting (Post 13642277)

I found this interesting:
Quote:

All participants had non-severe ambulatory illness or were asymptomatic.
The proportion of asymptomatic cases did not differ among fully vaccinated, partially vaccinated, and unvaccinated delta group.

Small sample size of relatively young people, so probably not too surprising.

The Atheist 29th October 2021 03:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Puppycow (Post 13642268)
I would think it might be advisable to get the children vaccinated ASAP.

If the numbers are to be believed, 75% of kids in UK have had Covid, so it's way too late already.

Quote:

Originally Posted by angrysoba (Post 13642320)
Not wanting to flog a dead horse but Gideon M-K has written a short article discrediting some of the recent claims about vitamin D being a useful anti-Covid supplement:

Well, he negates one claim, but he also states:

"there is a plausible benefit and the risk remains low"

I'll buy that - Pascal's Wager for Covid. We know D is beneficial in fighting respiratory illness, so it's likely to aid the body's fight against Covid.

What pisses me off is that as we near the two-year mark, we still don't have a definitive study to know for sure.

angrysoba 29th October 2021 04:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13642393)
If the numbers are to be believed, 75% of kids in UK have had Covid, so it's way too late already.



Well, he negates one claim, but he also states:

"there is a plausible benefit and the risk remains low"

I'll buy that - Pascal's Wager for Covid. We know D is beneficial in fighting respiratory illness, so it's likely to aid the body's fight against Covid.

What pisses me off is that as we near the two-year mark, we still don't have a definitive study to know for sure.

Yeah, he says take vitamin D supplements if you want. It probably won't harm you (depending on the dose, obvs).

To me it looks pretty obvious though that vitamin D is being aggressively marketed by scammers and merchants of woo.

I've had people come up to me and evangelize for vitamin D for years. I can't understand where they got the idea that I was vitamin D deficient. They aren't doctors, they get their news from places like InfoWars.com, they think milk is dangerous, they believe 9/11 was an inside job, so I have always tended to assume that their evangelism for vitamin D was part of their general appetite for woo.

Sure, if you are old and have been told you need the supplementation, it makes sense, but prescribing it for the general population? Sounds fishy af.

Puppycow 29th October 2021 07:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by angrysoba (Post 13642420)
To me it looks pretty obvious though that vitamin D is being aggressively marketed by scammers and merchants of woo.

Now I'm remembering some health fad from wellness gurus a couple years ago called perineum sunning. I suppose that's way to get your D, vitamin that is. ;)

marting 29th October 2021 08:56 AM

Interesting study on all cause mortality correlation with D levels. Remarkaably strong correlation. Note that this study preceded Covid-19.

Association of Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Concentrations With All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality Among Adult Patients With Existing Cardiovascular Disease

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8496747/

Quote:

Results: Among 37,079 patients with CVD at baseline, 57.5% were subjected to vitamin D deficiency (i.e., 25[OH]D <50 nmol/L). During a median follow-up of 11.7 years, 6,319 total deaths occurred, including 2,161 deaths from CVD, 2,230 deaths from cancer, 623 deaths from respiratory disease, and 1,305 other-cause deaths. We observed non-linear inverse associations for all-cause, cancer, respiratory disease, and other-cause mortality (P-non-linearity <0.01) and approximately linear inverse associations for CVD mortality (P-non-linearity = 0.074). Among CVD patients with vitamin D deficiency, per 10 nmol/L increment in serum 25(OH)D concentrations was associated with an 12% reduced risk for all-cause mortality and 9% reduced risk for CVD mortality.
See Figure 1. for mortality v D levels.

The Atheist 29th October 2021 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by angrysoba (Post 13642420)
Sure, if you are old and have been told you need the supplementation, it makes sense, but prescribing it for the general population? Sounds fishy af.

You mean how the NHS in UK recommends it for everyone, regardless of Covid?

https://www.openaccessgovernment.org...tamin-d/88657/

Quote:

Originally Posted by Puppycow (Post 13642518)
Now I'm remembering some health fad from wellness gurus a couple years ago called perineum sunning. I suppose that's way to get your D, vitamin that is. ;)

I hope they got burned there, because it wouldn't take long, but would be excruciating.

Quote:

Originally Posted by marting (Post 13642609)
Interesting study on all cause mortality correlation with D levels. Remarkaably strong correlation. Note that this study preceded Covid-19.

That is interesting -12% is pretty damn high.

We'll talk more about it when I've polished my Nobel medal.

marting 29th October 2021 05:50 PM

There is a lot of confusion from the UK breakthrough data that uses NIMS v ONS. The NIMS data indicates you are more likely to get Covid if vaccinated than unvaccinated. The Financial Times goes into why.

https://www.ft.com/content/a51f85a2-...c-75447b7660b3

This reminds me of the VAERS problem where anti-vaxxers are insisting that children are more likely to be harmed than helped by vaccination. Much of this is because the data available is crap in the USA and not all that great in the UK.

But there are a few things that are well known. At least in the USA and probably most everywhere else.

1. Exactly who / when each vaccine was given.
2. Exactly who / when deaths occured from any cause and, of course, their vaccination history.

Seems that by now researchers would be colating this. Kind of a no brainer and should provide specific evidence re benefit/risks.

Anyone see anthing like this from any country?

angrysoba 29th October 2021 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13642911)
You mean how the NHS in UK recommends it for everyone, regardless of Covid?

https://www.openaccessgovernment.org...tamin-d/88657/

Maybe that is a specific recommendation for people who are locked down. It is again not really anything related to Covid per se (only the lockdown). The specific wording of the NHS recommendation is this….

Quote:

If you're still spending more time indoors than usual this spring and summer, you should take 10 micrograms (400 IU) of vitamin D a day to keep your bones and muscles healthy.

There have been some reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus (COVID-19). But there is currently not enough evidence to support taking vitamin D solely to prevent or treat COVID-19.

Pixel42 29th October 2021 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by angrysoba (Post 13642992)
Maybe that is a specific recommendation for people who are locked down.

It's recommended for everyone who lives in the latitude of the UK.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitami...als/vitamin-d/

Quote:

Should I take a vitamin D supplement?

Advice for adults and children over 4 years old


During the autumn and winter, you need to get vitamin D from your diet because the sun is not strong enough for the body to make vitamin D.

But since it's difficult for people to get enough vitamin D from food alone, everyone (including pregnant and breastfeeding women) should consider taking a daily supplement containing 10 micrograms of vitamin D during the autumn and winter.

angrysoba 29th October 2021 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pixel42 (Post 13643014)
It's recommended for everyone who lives in the latitude of the UK.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitami...als/vitamin-d/

Okay. I stand corrected then.

Planigale 29th October 2021 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marting (Post 13642277)
A very detailed Lancet paper on Delta household transmisson where all contacts of an index case were tested daily and PCR-RT Cts were logged. Vaccination status of index and all contacts were also logged.

This is by far the best work I've seen. Daily tests provide insight into transmission dynamics.

Community transmission and viral load kinetics of the SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in the UK: a prospective, longitudinal, cohort study

https://els-jbs-prod-cdn.jbs.elsevie...5425926927.pdf



I found this interesting:

Also of note;

Quote:

The SAR in household contacts exposed to fully vaccinated index cases was 25% (95% CI 15–35; 17 of 69), which is similar to the SAR in household contacts exposed to unvaccinated index cases (23% [15–31]; 23 of 100; table 2). The 53 PCR-positive contacts arose from household exposure to 39 PCR-positive index cases. Of these index cases who gave rise to secondary transmission, the proportion who were fully vaccinated (15 [38%] of 39) was similar to the proportion who were unvaccinated (16 [41%] of 39).
This is for the delta variant. Vaccination seems to make no difference to transmission. If you get Covid-19 delta variant and are vaccinated you are as likely to pass it onto family members as if you are not vaccinated.

Quote:

In the other three households (numbers 1–3), fully vaccinated index cases transmitted the delta variant to fully vaccinated household contacts, with high viral load in all cases, and temporal relationships between the viral load kinetics that were consistent with transmission from the index cases to their respective contacts
Even if both the infected person and the family members are vaccinated transmission can still occur.

The relative good news is period of infectivity is probably shorter if vaccinated by 3 days.

Quote:

The mean viral load decline rate of the fully vaccinated delta group was also faster than those of the alpha group (pp=0·84) and the unvaccinated delta group (pp=0·85). The differences in decline rates translate into a difference of about 3 days in the mean duration of the decline phase between the pre-alpha and delta vaccinated groups.
However peak viral load did not differ based on vaccination status. Peak viral load was correlated with age, so younger people are less infectious than older.

Planigale 29th October 2021 11:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pixel42 (Post 13643014)
It's recommended for everyone who lives in the latitude of the UK.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitami...als/vitamin-d/

To be picky this is advice for England* not the UK, health being a devolved issue. Further north in Scotland, vitamin D is recommended all year round but especially in winter;

Quote:

Vitamin D supplements advice
Vitamin D supplements may state the amount in micrograms or international units (IU). 1 microgram of vitamin D is the same as 40 international units (IU). 10 micrograms equates to 400 international units (IU).

Everyone (including children) should consider taking a daily supplement containing 10 micrograms of vitamin D (400 IU), particularly during the winter months (October to March).

It is specifically recommended that groups at higher risk of vitamin D deficiency take a daily supplement all year round. These groups include:

all pregnant and breastfeeding women
infants and children under 5 years old
people who have low or no exposure to the sun, for example those who cover their skin for cultural reasons, are housebound, confined indoors for long periods or live in an institution
people from minority ethnic groups with dark skin such as those of African, African-Caribbean and south Asian origin, who require more sun exposure to make as much vitamin D
*Confusingly NHS.UK web site is NHS England not the UK.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/vi...ll-age-groups/

Planigale 29th October 2021 11:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marting (Post 13642609)
Interesting study on all cause mortality correlation with D levels. Remarkaably strong correlation. Note that this study preceded Covid-19.

Association of Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Concentrations With All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality Among Adult Patients With Existing Cardiovascular Disease

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8496747/



See Figure 1. for mortality v D levels.

There are a lot of studies showing that low vitamin D is associated with in particularl infection risk (e.g. measles and TB). What has always failed is showing that vitamin D supplements have any effect once infected, or even that population based supplements impact on population infection rates. Probably this is because the intervention studies were poor quality and under powered.There is also an ethical issue, since vitamin D is a 'good thing', denying supplements if you know someone is deficient is difficult. Vitamin D effects may also have a relatively long lead time, so you may need to supplement over a long period e.g. five years with a similar period of follow up to show an effect, long studies are expensive.

I certainly prescribe vitamin D for everyone passing through my care, in general only post menopausal women are on vitamin D, the message about vitamin D is not getting out there.

Darat 30th October 2021 03:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Planigale (Post 13643083)
There are a lot of studies showing that low vitamin D is associated with in particularl infection risk (e.g. measles and TB). What has always failed is showing that vitamin D supplements have any effect once infected, or even that population based supplements impact on population infection rates. Probably this is because the intervention studies were poor quality and under powered.There is also an ethical issue, since vitamin D is a 'good thing', denying supplements if you know someone is deficient is difficult. Vitamin D effects may also have a relatively long lead time, so you may need to supplement over a long period e.g. five years with a similar period of follow up to show an effect, long studies are expensive.

I certainly prescribe vitamin D for everyone passing through my care, in general only post menopausal women are on vitamin D, the message about vitamin D is not getting out there.

The UK government did send out Vitamin D supplements to the most at risk in England so would have thought we’d have seen a decrease in low Vitamin D levels?

zooterkin 30th October 2021 03:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13642911)
I hope they got burned there, because it wouldn't take long, but would be excruciating.

Just ask Josh Brolin.

zooterkin 30th October 2021 04:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13642142)
I think that's largely irrelevant, because we've known from the very start that numbers are well short of reality, so we're not comparing like with like.

Meanwhile, the week-on-week official numbers continue their substantial decrease today.

It's not just that the ZOE Covid numbers are higher, which is understandable, but that they are not coming down yet while the official ones are, so possibly something else is going on. It's not impossible that it's a flaw in the ZOE extrapolation (which they've had to correct a couple of times before), but it could be something like less testing, for example, since it's half term. The latest ONS Covid prevalence survey (based on random sampling of the population), which had data up to 22nd October, was still showing an upward trend, though that's the point at which the official daily numbers started to level off and then fall. So, we'll have to wait a bit longer to see what's really happening, with the next ONS data in a week, and the hospital admissions which are not so susceptible to other influences on reporting.

Aridas 30th October 2021 04:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darat (Post 13643135)
The UK government did send out Vitamin D supplements to the most at risk in England so would have thought we’d have seen a decrease in low Vitamin D levels?

To poke at a couple things to add context to this -

More than 2.5m people in England to get free vitamin D
This article is more than 10 months old

Care home residents and clinically vulnerable to be offered four-month supply


That was for the winter of 2020.

As for helping with Vitamin D deficiency...

Quote:

We suggest that all adults who are vitamin D deficient be treated with 50,000 IU of vitamin D3 once a week for eight weeks or its equivalent of 6,000 IU of vitamin D3 daily to achieve a blood level of 25(OH)D above 30 ng/mL, followed by maintenance therapy of 1,500-2,000 IU/day.
In obese patients, patients with malabsorption syndromes, and patients on medications affecting vitamin D metabolism, we suggest a higher dose (two to three times higher; at least 6,000-10,000 IU/day) of vitamin D to treat vitamin D deficiency to maintain a 25(OH)D level above 30 ng/mL, followed by maintenance therapy of 3,000-6,000IU/day. One study found that for every 33 lbs. of body weight the serum 25(OH)D level was 4 ng/mL lower at the end of one year of monitoring. This could lead to a significant change in the amount required to supplement based on your body weight and starting serum level.
There's a lot more in that article, to say the least, but at least 2 months of much higher intake isn't a quick fix, followed by engaging in maintenance that very likely hadn't been done prior to that. That's a bit of a soft barrier to correcting the issue there.

The Atheist 30th October 2021 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zooterkin (Post 13643181)
It's not just that the ZOE Covid numbers are higher, which is understandable, but that they are not coming down yet while the official ones are, so possibly something else is going on.

I see the official numbers are very slightly up, week-on-week, for the past two days, but by very little.

I'm still picking they'll fall off a cliff shortly, With a vast undercount in case numbers and good vaccination rates, there can't be many susceptible people left now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by zooterkin (Post 13643181)
... but it could be something like less testing, for example, since it's half term.

Are you still PCR testing at the official stage there?

We're under-counting by miles, and I'm sure a big driver is the unpleasantness of the PCR test. Unless I was at death's door, I sure wouldn't have one, and I'm fairly sure I had a post-vaccination infection a couple of weeks ago and didn't get tested, partly for that reason.

The other driver of not testing here is clearly the fact that you're likely to be dragged off to some sleazy hotel and put in quarantine if you test positive. Sometimes, ideas that seem smart at the time are actually really stupid.

zooterkin 30th October 2021 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13643407)
I see the official numbers are very slightly up, week-on-week, for the past two days, but by very little.

:confused: They're down compared with the same day last week. They're slightly higher than the previous two days this week, whereas last week the numbers were going down.


Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13643407)
Are you still PCR testing at the official stage there?

Not sure what that means. The number of tests recorded over the last week was 10% lower than the previous week.

The Atheist 31st October 2021 02:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zooterkin (Post 13643432)
:confused: They're down compared with the same day last week. They're slightly higher than the previous two days this week, whereas last week the numbers were going down.

Looks like I had the days wrong. Why you can't use a normal time zone I don't know.

Quote:

Originally Posted by zooterkin (Post 13643432)
Not sure what that means.

The test that involves shoving a plastic shovel to the back of your eyeball. Most unpleasant. It's still how we're doing 100% of tests here and I blame nobody for not having one.

angrysoba 31st October 2021 02:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zooterkin (Post 13643432)
:confused: They're down compared with the same day last week. They're slightly higher than the previous two days this week, whereas last week the numbers were going down.



Not sure what that means. The number of tests recorded over the last week was 10% lower than the previous week.

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13643654)
Looks like I had the days wrong. Why you can't use a normal time zone I don't know.



The test that involves shoving a plastic shovel to the back of your eyeball. Most unpleasant. It's still how we're doing 100% of tests here and I blame nobody for not having one.

I think we should really judge everything by the seven-day average rather than just particular days.

One thing that may have affected this week's numbers is that most schools in the UK had half term holidays until Friday. From Monday they are back at school...

Anyway, I get what the policy is, but Professor Devi Sridhar is still pretty persuasive for me when it comes to the dangers of letting the virus run riot...

Link

zooterkin 31st October 2021 04:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by angrysoba (Post 13643661)
I think we should really judge everything by the seven-day average rather than just particular days.

True, but it is at least a guide to compare a day's figures with the same day the week before, to look for emerging trends, since there are reasonably constant factors affecting when cases get reported. Comparing one day with the next is not generally helpful given those fixed factors.
Quote:

One thing that may have affected this week's numbers is that most schools in the UK had half term holidays until Friday. From Monday they are back at school...
Yes, I'd already mentioned that. Testing is also down, and the two may well be linked. Some of the testing is done at school, and some people who may have been tested regularly at work may be on holiday, looking after the kids.

The daily case numbers from ZOE seem to be levelling off too, now.

marting 31st October 2021 09:35 PM

The future is imminent. Interesting opinion piece in MedPageToday about appropriate policies for an endemic Covid-19.

Accept It: COVID Will Be an Endemic Virus — Everyone will meet with the virus eventually, but doing so safely (while vaccinated) is key

Quote:

Acceptance is coming -- that's the true end of the pandemic. COVID-19 won't vanish as some may have believed early on. Instead, some pockets of the U.S. will continue to have caseload increases, some hospitals may get overloaded and local measures may be necessary, but the virus is not going away and the burden is on us to come to terms with that. Each of us has to decide how much life we are willing to trade to delay our time to meet the virus.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/vinay-prasad/94646

Planigale 1st November 2021 01:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by angrysoba (Post 13643661)
I think we should really judge everything by the seven-day average rather than just particular days.

One thing that may have affected this week's numbers is that most schools in the UK had half term holidays until Friday. From Monday they are back at school...

Anyway, I get what the policy is, but Professor Devi Sridhar is still pretty persuasive for me when it comes to the dangers of letting the virus run riot...

Link

Yet she is on the government advisory group on Covid. The way she writes you would think she had nothing to do with the policy! Yet she sits on the committee that advises the government on what to do. Perhaps if she had spent the last months focussing on protecting the country rather than writing a self-serving self promoting book things would be different. If she so strongly believes government policy is wrong she should resign because she obviously is incapable of making a convincing case to change policy.

The Atheist 1st November 2021 01:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marting (Post 13644349)
Accept It: COVID Will Be an Endemic Virus — Everyone will meet with the virus eventually, but doing so safely (while vaccinated) is key

I'm slightly amused that it's still not universally recognised.

The only question I have left is whether the booster shot's protection will last a bit longer. I doubt twice-yearly vaccinations for it are high on people's wish list.

gypsyjackson 1st November 2021 02:13 AM

For those interested in breakthrough numbers, I have just seen some figures here in Malaysia.

Total deaths in Malaysia from Covid in September and October 2021: 7,636
Total deaths unvaccinated people: 4,076 (53%)
Total deaths people with one dose: 1,401 (18%)
Total deaths fully vaccinated: 2,159 (28% - rounding means sum=99%)

Of the last 1,573 (72.8%) had had the Sinovac vaccine (in total 40% of those vaccinated have had Sinovac); 550 (25.5%) Pfizer; and 36 (1.7%) AZ. Pfizer has been used to vaccinate 52% of those vaccinated in Malaysia, with 8% receiving AZ.

The vaccination rate in Malaysia is high, despite a slow start, with today’s figures being 74.9% total population fully vaccinated (95.5 for adults) and 78.1% with at least one dose (97.7% of adults). The milestone of 60% fully vaccinated was hit on 24/9, broadly in the middle of the period referred to for deaths above.

25 under 18s died in that time period; Malaysia recently started vaccination for 12-17 year olds.
_______________________________

Now I’m not bright enough to do the maths on all of that, but my inexpert view is that I’m happy my wife and I both had AZ, and that I am glad my in-laws got vaccinated but wish it hadn’t been Sinovac.

Doctors here are calling for boosters to be Pfizer, and our Health Minister became one of the first to get the Sinovac-Pfizer combo before his trip to a WHO meeting recently.

marting 1st November 2021 07:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gypsyjackson (Post 13644460)
For those interested in breakthrough numbers, I have just seen some figures here in Malaysia.

Total deaths in Malaysia from Covid in September and October 2021: 7,636
Total deaths unvaccinated people: 4,076 (53%)
Total deaths people with one dose: 1,401 (18%)
Total deaths fully vaccinated: 2,159 (28% - rounding means sum=99%)

Of the last 1,573 (72.8%) had had the Sinovac vaccine (in total 40% of those vaccinated have had Sinovac); 550 (25.5%) Pfizer; and 36 (1.7%) AZ. Pfizer has been used to vaccinate 52% of those vaccinated in Malaysia, with 8% receiving AZ.

The vaccination rate in Malaysia is high, despite a slow start, with today’s figures being 74.9% total population fully vaccinated (95.5 for adults) and 78.1% with at least one dose (97.7% of adults). The milestone of 60% fully vaccinated was hit on 24/9, broadly in the middle of the period referred to for deaths above.

25 under 18s died in that time period; Malaysia recently started vaccination for 12-17 year olds.
_______________________________

Now I’m not bright enough to do the maths on all of that, but my inexpert view is that I’m happy my wife and I both had AZ, and that I am glad my in-laws got vaccinated but wish it hadn’t been Sinovac.

Doctors here are calling for boosters to be Pfizer, and our Health Minister became one of the first to get the Sinovac-Pfizer combo before his trip to a WHO meeting recently.

For what it's worth those Malaysian numbers are more than compatible with at least a 10X vaccine protection against death. How much more would require more demographic data on vaccination and deaths. So your feelings are correct.

marting 1st November 2021 09:33 AM

As we head towards dealing with reality (Covid-19 endimicity) there are some critically missing data.

1. Longevity and characteristics of immunity from prior infection. Much of this data should already be there and it's critical to know what it says to model public policy during the next phase of Covid-19. Particularly to model impact on health resources.

2. Same as above but with where natural immunity is enhanced with vaccines.

3. Longevity and characteristics of vaccine immunity with no prior record of infection. Much of this is now known relative to short time frames. Info on longer time frames will modify models as it comes in.

These are the kinds of data I'm currently most interested in and look forward to getting.

jimbob 1st November 2021 10:59 AM

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...4september2021


Between Jan and September 2021, unvaccinated people had a 32x higher chance of dying of Covid than vaccinated.

The Atheist 1st November 2021 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marting (Post 13644733)
These are the kinds of data I'm currently most interested in and look forward to getting.

Yet again highlighting the paucity of data.

I'd be surprised if it weren't on this planet.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimbob (Post 13644818)
Between Jan and September 2021, unvaccinated people had a 32x higher chance of dying of Covid than unvaccinated.

The funniest one I've seen lately from antivaxers, when confronted with facts ex-UK is that it's all changed because all the vulnerable people died in 2020.

32 times is a outstanding.

zooterkin 1st November 2021 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimbob (Post 13644818)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...4september2021


Between Jan and September 2021, unvaccinated people had a 32x higher chance of dying of Covid than unvaccinated.

I’m guessing the last word should be “vaccinated “. ;)

jimbob 1st November 2021 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zooterkin (Post 13644840)
I’m guessing the last word should be “vaccinated “. ;)

Fixed.

Doh

Puppycow 2nd November 2021 02:31 AM

Defective viral RNA sensing linked to severe COVID-19

Quote:

Although many factors govern how sick people become, a key driver of the severity of COVID-19 appears to be genetic, which is common for other human viruses and infectious agents (1). On page 579 of this issue, Wickenhagen et al. (2) show that susceptibility to severe COVID-19 is associated with a single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the human gene 2′-5′-oligoadenylate synthetase 1 (OAS1).
I wonder how prevalent this particular polymorphism is in the population, and whether it varies from country to country.

Why It’s Easy to Misinterpret Numbers of Deaths Among the Vaccinated

Pretty basic stuff here, but a popular talking point among anti-vaxxers is that more fully-vaccinated people are dying now. But not on an age-controlled per capita basis.


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