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-   -   Continuation The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread Part 4 (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=354459)

marting 15th September 2022 07:54 AM

The Lancet Covid-19 Commission
 
The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic provides a comprehensive investigation, analysis, and response to COVID-19.

The full report is a downloadable, 57 pg, 12MB pdf. It includes a history of the pandemic that is well worth reading.
https://www.thelancet.com/commissions/covid19

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...585-9/fulltext

Paul2 15th September 2022 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marting (Post 13902952)
The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic provides a comprehensive investigation, analysis, and response to COVID-19.

The full report is a downloadable, 57 pg, 12MB pdf. It includes a history of the pandemic that is well worth reading.
https://www.thelancet.com/commissions/covid19

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...585-9/fulltext

Thanks for that. It will be a great reference resource, and its point early on about prosociality is excellent.

The Atheist 15th September 2022 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marting (Post 13902952)
The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic provides a comprehensive investigation, analysis, and response to COVID-19.

The full report is a downloadable, 57 pg, 12MB pdf. It includes a history of the pandemic that is well worth reading.
https://www.thelancet.com/commissions/covid19

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...585-9/fulltext

Good spot!

That is an outstanding piece of clear and telling English, with the pandemic nailed from every angle.

I love their opening paragraph:

Quote:

This staggering death toll is both a profound tragedy and a massive global failure at multiple levels. Too many governments have failed to adhere to basic norms of institutional rationality and transparency, too many people—often influenced by misinformation—have disrespected and protested against basic public health precautions, and the world's major powers have failed to collaborate to control the pandemic.

Chris_Halkides 21st September 2022 11:40 AM

Letter to NEJM on waning effectiveness of the vaccine in kids
 
I brought up this Letter to the Editor of NEJM on another thread. "Here, we report on the protection conferred by the BNT162b2 vaccine and by previous SARS-CoV-2 infection against infection and coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19)–related hospitalization and death in children 5 to 11 years of age." My question is why some of the graphs dip below zero within Figures 1A and 1B.

marting 21st September 2022 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris_Halkides (Post 13907977)
I brought up this Letter to the Editor of NEJM on another thread. "Here, we report on the protection conferred by the BNT162b2 vaccine and by previous SARS-CoV-2 infection against infection and coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19)–related hospitalization and death in children 5 to 11 years of age." My question is why some of the graphs dip below zero within Figures 1A and 1B.

Qatar studied a large portion of their population through Sept. 2021. Similar results to the children's sample from North Carolina but somewhat slower efficacy drop. In the Qatar study efficacy against assymptomatic infection became negative at and above 6 months after vax.

The newer variants may account for the difference.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2114114

I commented on this after observing their preprint had clamped negative efficacy at 0. That was fixed.
http://www.internationalskeptics.com...3&postcount=70

As for how efficacy against infection could become negative, one theory is that some degree of imprinting (original antigenic sin) is occuring where the immune system initially responds as if the infection was caused by the original disease/vaccine while the more delayed response continues to protect against severe disease. This would be more apparent with the more recent variants as they have diverged from the virus the vaccines were based on.

marting 21st September 2022 08:57 PM

Buckle Up. Here comes BA.2.75.2, BQ.1 and BQ.1.1
 
Fiinally we have some info on new wave threats. These are at very small numbers right now but exhibit significant growth rates. Numbers are too low to estimate severity. Impact should be more predictable in a few weeks. likely waves in a month or two.

See UK charts here:
http://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19...ant_comparison


Interesting discussion of how imprinting (original antigenic sin) is driving rapid SARS-CoV-2 evolution in this new preprint. Unusual paper in that it covers very recent Omicron variants.

Imprinted SARS-CoV-2 humoral immunity induces convergent Omicron RBD evolution
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...09.15.507787v1

Abstract portion:
Quote:

Continuous evolution of Omicron has led to numerous subvariants that exhibits growth advantage over BA.5. Such rapid and simultaneous emergence of variants with enormous advantages is unprecedented. Despite their rapidly divergent evolutionary courses, mutations on their receptor-binding domain (RBD) converge on several hotspots, including R346, R356, K444, L452, N460K and F486. The driving force and destination of such convergent evolution and its impact on humoral immunity established by vaccination and infection remain unclear. Here we demonstrate that these convergent mutations can cause striking evasion of convalescent plasma, including those from BA.5 breakthrough infection, and existing antibody drugs, including Evusheld and Bebtelovimab. BA.2.75.2 is the most evasive strain tested, and only BQ.1.1 could compare.

The Atheist 21st September 2022 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marting (Post 13908414)
Fiinally we have some info on new wave threats.

Doesn't look much of an issue immediately. The growth of 1.1 is very high, but only against a fast-falling BA5, so it may look a lot worse in a graph than it actually is. Infections are now down 99.7% from their peak, so a rate double the current number doesn't really matter.

We had the 2.75 arrive here and it made no headway against the massive BA5 sweeping the country.

Worth keeping an eye on, but not looking too bad.

I think the big danger is yet another major shift through recombination. Without that happening, I think the omicrons are a fizzer.

marting 25th September 2022 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13908452)
Doesn't look much of an issue immediately. The growth of 1.1 is very high, but only against a fast-falling BA5, so it may look a lot worse in a graph than it actually is. Infections are now down 99.7% from their peak, so a rate double the current number doesn't really matter.

We had the 2.75 arrive here and it made no headway against the massive BA5 sweeping the country.

Worth keeping an eye on, but not looking too bad.

I think the big danger is yet another major shift through recombination. Without that happening, I think the omicrons are a fizzer.


Tom W. is probably the most on top of making estimates for each country with reasonable levels of genomic measurements. Great stats knowledge and coder to boot.

This is the best twitter site I've run across with a focus on variant extrapolation.
https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/stat...70401512128515

The Atheist 25th September 2022 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marting (Post 13910934)
Tom W. is probably the most on top of making estimates for each country with reasonable levels of genomic measurements. Great stats knowledge and coder to boot.

This is the best twitter site I've run across with a focus on variant extrapolation.
https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/stat...70401512128515

Cheers - good info.

This is interesting:

Quote:

These mutations have been studied by @jbloom_lab and @yunlong_cao and were shown to allow the variants carrying them to evade BA.5 induced immunity. This makes it likely that these variants may take off really on a global scale.
I see a few countries showing an uptick in cases. Just how far and how fast things change is unknown, but it's not showing explosive growth yet.

The question we need the answer to is how the bivalent vaccines perform against the newest variants. They should work, but time will tell.

Dr.Sid 25th September 2022 04:23 PM

Nextstrain shows it's really just india at the moment .. so global data are irrelevant at the moment.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid/g...min=2022-09-01

I was not able to find reliable India numbers though ..

The Atheist 25th September 2022 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid (Post 13910986)
I was not able to find reliable India numbers though ..

:dl:

Good luck with that. India has been lying through Modi's teeth all the way.

Dr.Sid 25th September 2022 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13911008)
:dl:

Good luck with that. India has been lying through Modi's teeth all the way.

Another country with high BA.2.75 ratio is Australia. And it's more or less stable at the moment.

rjh01 26th September 2022 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid (Post 13911054)
Another country with high BA.2.75 ratio is Australia. And it's more or less stable at the moment.

The number of new cases in Australia has been going down for several weeks. Ditto to the number of people in hospital.

Puppycow 28th September 2022 06:06 AM

Here in Japan, the 7th wave is petering out, but shows signs of leveling off at a higher plateau than before.

I'll take the first 6 months of the year as the 6th wave, and from July 1st onward as the 7th wave.

From Jan. 1st through June 30th, there were 7,323,722 infections and 12,888 deaths. This gives a rough case fatality rate of 0.18%.
Since July 1st, there have been 11,880,444 infections (more than half of all infections since the beginning of the pandemic have occurred here in the last 3 months). 20.9 million cases, 11.8 million since July 1st, and 19.2 million since Jan. 1st.
Since July 1st, there have been 13,278 additional deaths. This gives a rough case fatality rate of 0.11%. So cases are up, but CFR is about 39% lower. But the bottom line is still more deaths in a 3-month period than in the 6-month period that preceded it.

As far as active cases, they are down from almost 2 million at the peak to near half a million now, and daily average deaths are down by about two thirds from the peak. The number of critically ill is also down by around two thirds.

Bob001 28th September 2022 08:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Puppycow (Post 13912899)
......
Since July 1st, there have been 13,278 additional deaths. This gives a rough case fatality rate of 0.11%. So cases are up, but CFR is about 39% lower. But the bottom line is still more deaths in a 3-month period than in the 6-month period that preceded it.

As far as active cases, they are down from almost 2 million at the peak to near half a million now, and daily average deaths are down by about two thirds from the peak. The number of critically ill is also down by around two thirds.

How is the vaccination rate? Are most people vaccinated? Is there any resistance? Have the people who are dying generally been vaccinated?

zooterkin 28th September 2022 11:06 AM

Cases are rising again in the UK; from ZOE Covid symptom study data:

https://imgur.com/bXVio0k

Lplus 28th September 2022 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zooterkin (Post 13913167)
Cases are rising again in the UK; from ZOE Covid symptom study data:

https://imgur.com/bXVio0k

Kids gone back to school? people going back to work?

Puppycow 28th September 2022 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob001 (Post 13913019)
How is the vaccination rate? Are most people vaccinated? Is there any resistance? Have the people who are dying generally been vaccinated?

According to Google, 81.7% of the population is fully vaccinated. I don't know what percentage are up to date on their booster though. I'm not aware of any data source that shows whether the people dying have been vaccinated or not.

TellyKNeasuss 3rd October 2022 02:12 PM

A new research study claims, based on data from Florida and Ohio, that the excess death rate from the beginning of the pandemic in the USA up until vaccines became generally available was statistically equal between Democrats and Republicans but after vaccines became generally available Republicans had a higher excess death rate than did Democrats. The lower the vaccination rate in a county was, the greater the difference between Democrats and Republicans.

Quote:

We estimate substantially higher excess death rates for registered Republicans when compared to registered Democrats, with almost all of the difference concentrated in the period after vaccines were widely available in our study states. Overall, the excess death rate for Republicans was 5.4 percentage points (pp), or 76%, higher than the excess death rate for Democrats. Post- vaccines, the excess death rate gap between Republicans and Democrats widened from 1.6 pp (22% of the Democrat excess death rate) to 10.4 pp (153% of the Democrat excess death rate).
https://www.nber.org/system/files/wo...512/w30512.pdf

marting 7th October 2022 03:42 PM

Wachter's UCSF Grand Rounds focus on Long Covid
 
Bob and 3 researchers discuss the current knowledge of long covid.

I found it quite a good summary of what's known and what research is being pursued.

https://youtu.be/YGAfCW6ytMc

Comparisons with influenza sequalae - it's much more!
A large number of organs affected. Why and what not known.
Causes? Residual viral reservoirs, auto immune changes?
Strong need for treatment RCTs. Now almost entirely symptomatic treatments.

Puppycow 7th October 2022 09:02 PM

I wonder if there's been any research on the relative effectiveness of the new bivalent vaccines compared to the original vaccines?

My understanding is that we don't yet have the newest ones here in Japan yet (with BA.4 and BA.5). But they do have Omicron BA.1.

Apparently in the USA, not so many people are getting fully boosted?

Few Americans get new covid booster shot ahead of projected winter surge (Washington Post)
Quote:

Only about 105 million U.S. adults — roughly 40 percent — have received the third shot of vaccine initially offered a year ago, according to federal data, a far lower rate than countries like the United Kingdom, where more than 70 percent of adults have gotten a third dose. That figure is also well behind the 200 million U.S. adults who completed their primary series of shots.

Early data shows that just over 11 million Americans — or about 4 percent of those eligible — have received the new bivalent booster shots. A third of adults say they eventually plan to get those shots, according to KFF polling.

For public health leaders, the low booster rate is startling in a nation that financed the shots’ development, offers them free and touts them as the best way to protect against a virus that has already claimed more than 1 million lives in this country.
With so many people probably having been exposed already, does it make a big difference anymore?

Lplus 8th October 2022 05:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Puppycow (Post 13919394)
I wonder if there's been any research on the relative effectiveness of the new bivalent vaccines compared to the original vaccines?

My understanding is that we don't yet have the newest ones here in Japan yet (with BA.4 and BA.5). But they do have Omicron BA.1.

Apparently in the USA, not so many people are getting fully boosted?

Few Americans get new covid booster shot ahead of projected winter surge (Washington Post)


With so many people probably having been exposed already, does it make a big difference anymore?

I'm not sure anyone has bivalent vaccines with BA.4 and/or BA.5. Here in the UK the vaccines with BA.1 are being rolled out. Had mine a week ago,.

angrysoba 8th October 2022 05:38 AM

Speaking of Japan, an RCT there found no useful effect for ivermectin. Shock!

Quote:

A clinical trial was unable to prove the efficacy of the antiparasitic medicine ivermectin against coronavirus variants, according to Japanese drugmaker Kowa Co., which has indicated that it will no longer seek approval for the drug as a COVID-19 treatment.

The Nagoya-based pharmaceutical and trading company announced the results of a randomized, double-blind, international clinical trial on Sept. 26. In the trial, 1,030 patients with mild COVID-19 were orally administered the drug daily for three days and then compared to others given a placebo.

Ivermectin was found to be safe and few people given the drug developed severe symptoms, Kowa said. But both the group given the drug and the one administered a placebo saw improvements in symptoms, meaning the trial did not show the drug’s efficacy over the placebo as a COVID-19 treatment.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...ctin-covid-19/

Puppycow 8th October 2022 06:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by angrysoba (Post 13919521)
Speaking of Japan, an RCT there found no useful effect for ivermectin. Shock!



https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...ctin-covid-19/

Thanks!

Is this not the CORVETTE-1 trial? The article is sparse on details and I don't see a link to the study itself. Did the company simply announce the results and not publish the data?

I found this, but most of the article is behind a paywall. Still, the bottom line appears to be that the Kitasato U. study also failed to "yield a statistically significant difference against placebo in the primary endpoint".

Ivermectin Fails in Investigator-Led COVID Trial Too

Puppycow 8th October 2022 06:33 AM

It was back in February when a press release from Kowa (not a published study, just a press release) caused Ivermectin boosters to claim vindication. Now that the trial has been completed, Ivermectin was not shown to be any more effective than a placebo and Kowa will not seek approval for its use for the treatment of COVID-19 in Japan. It seems that Kitasato U. also reached the same conclusion.

To be fair, the press release was worded in a misleading way I think. It suggested more than it really showed. I think all they found was that it worked in vitro (i.e., not in actual patients, but in test tubes or the like) against Omicron as well as it worked against previous strains. That's all it really said upon careful reading. But this was taken as proof that Ivermectin works.

angrysoba 8th October 2022 06:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Puppycow (Post 13919540)
Thanks!

Is this not the CORVETTE-1 trial? The article is sparse on details and I don't see a link to the study itself. Did the company simply announce the results and not publish the data?

I found this, but most of the article is behind a paywall. Still, the bottom line appears to be that the Kitasato U. study also failed to "yield a statistically significant difference against placebo in the primary endpoint".

Ivermectin Fails in Investigator-Led COVID Trial Too

I believe that this is the same study. I don't think they have written up their results yet, but it is in conjunction with Kitasato University. Kitasato, of course named after the virologist that every schoolboy knows, but also the seat of the emeritus professor, Satoshi Omura, who won the Nobel prize for using ivermectin on ringworm.

angrysoba 8th October 2022 06:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Puppycow (Post 13919557)
It was back in February when a press release from Kowa (not a published study, just a press release) caused Ivermectin boosters to claim vindication. Now that the trial has been completed, Ivermectin was not shown to be any more effective than a placebo and Kowa will not seek approval for its use for the treatment of COVID-19 in Japan. It seems that Kitasato U. also reached the same conclusion.

To be fair, the press release was worded in a misleading way I think. It suggested more than it really showed. I think all they found was that it worked in vitro (i.e., not in actual patients, but in test tubes or the like) against Omicron as well as it worked against previous strains. That's all it really said upon careful reading. But this was taken as proof that Ivermectin works.

Yes, absolutely. Joe Rogan and co were really excited about the news that ivermectin was effective on Omicron in vitro just as it was on the original strain and fans of Rogan were holding it up as vindication. It only took a few hours for most of them to realize that what they claimed was meaningless. For many of Rogan's fans it took much longer and many of them probably still don't realize they hadn't been vindicated.

Next round will be claims by the same pushers that this trial was set up to fail, of course. Maybe they will claim the intervention was too late, or underdosed or not used with zinc, or some other nonsense.

Dr.Sid 8th October 2022 07:44 AM

Meanwhile Europe numbers are rising again.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers...RA~USA~GBR~DEU

Czech cases seems to be not that bad and kind of stable .. but deaths are rising and are worst among the neighbors .. so I guess the low case numbers are just due to the much poorer testing compared to previous waves.

Gotta get that Japan trip in while I still can .. leaving on Thursday !

marting 9th October 2022 10:18 AM

Covid-19 hospitalization at highest level of the pandemic.
 
Note: this was retweeted by Christina Pagel, normally one I trust. But the title is quite misleading. It should only be relative to the end of the first Covid-19 stage prior to vaccines and not the whole epidemic. So read with that caveat.


The Covid hospitalization rate in Germany on Friday increased to the highest level (9.59) since the start of the pandemic, per RKI data. It surpassed the previous peak by ca. 15%

https://twitter.com/kniggem/status/1...DQpYzRhugrAAAA

The rise in covid-19 hospitalization has been exceptionally rapid based on the graphs linked.

Somewhat more of the population has been vaccinated than the US.

Winter is coming.

Or it may be wrong. The graphs exclude periods prior to summer 2021. And that was where most deaths occured. So this may just be post vaccine max. That said, the slope of hospitalizations is really damned high which doesn't bode well.

The Atheist 9th October 2022 10:56 AM

I don't see an explanation of what's going on there.

Is that the highest rate as a percentage of recorded cases? The official case numbers are very low, so I figure that has to be what it means, and with <10% of cases being tested it doesn't look too disturbing.

I see that only 10% of the Krauts are vax + 2 boosters, so that may explain some of the hospitalisations.

marting 9th October 2022 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13920153)
I don't see an explanation of what's going on there.

Is that the highest rate as a percentage of recorded cases? The official case numbers are very low, so I figure that has to be what it means, and with <10% of cases being tested it doesn't look too disturbing.

I see that only 10% of the Krauts are vax + 2 boosters, so that may explain some of the hospitalisations.

I'm somewhat appalled at the Tweet I posted. There is a vast difference in hospitalizations pre and post vax. And the data clearly applies only to the post vax period. Misleading.

Case numbers are highly questionable. Since the advent of home tests, which aren't recorded as cases in the USA, you can get a positive test and have a doc get you a paxlovid prescription but your "case" never even gets officially recorded. IHME currently estimates only about 5% of infections are being counted as cases in the US whereas previously about 40% of infections had been detected.

So the metric of interest is hospitalizations because everyone hospitalized for any reason is PCR tested. Even there it's not as useful since a majority of hospitalizations are for other reasons and a positive Covid test is incidental.

Dr.Sid 9th October 2022 01:17 PM

Srsly, only reliable method of judging disease severity is excess death. No problems with tests, "with" or "because of", home or in hospital. But then excess death lags behind and there are also weird processing delays, usually we are happy if we see the data 1 month later. And some countries don't publicize them at all.

Chris_Halkides 10th October 2022 08:07 AM

Florida recommends against vaccination for young males
 
"On October 7, the Office of Florida’s Surgeon General Joseph A. Ladapo, MD, PhD, issued a “heartfelt,” so to speak, announcement. And it was a doozy. Ladapo recommended “against males aged 18 to 39 from receiving mRNA Covid-19 vaccines,” essentially going against the recommendations of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and numerous other scientific organizations around the world."

Ladapo claimed in a tweet that Florida had done an analysis. "First of all, it’s important to note that this “analysis” has not been published in a reputable scientific journal...Moreover, it’s not clear why this “analysis” excluded deaths from Covid-19." Bruce Y. Lee at Forbes.

marting 10th October 2022 08:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris_Halkides (Post 13920650)
"On October 7, the Office of Florida’s Surgeon General Joseph A. Ladapo, MD, PhD, issued a “heartfelt,” so to speak, announcement. And it was a doozy. Ladapo recommended “against males aged 18 to 39 from receiving mRNA Covid-19 vaccines,” essentially going against the recommendations of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and numerous other scientific organizations around the world."

Ladapo claimed in a tweet that Florida had done an analysis. "First of all, it’s important to note that this “analysis” has not been published in a reputable scientific journal...Moreover, it’s not clear why this “analysis” excluded deaths from Covid-19." Bruce Y. Lee at Forbes.

Actually, not including Covid-19 deaths was correct. See the analysis link below. The study was only looking at the effects of vaccines, absent Covid-19 to the extent possible. The big ho-ha is all about the youngest age group deaths which is 1/1000 th total number. Overall, the study, as bad as it is, did not show any net vaccine associated deaths.

Here's the "study" (not peer reviewed and with no authors listed) the Florida Department of Health published:
https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/wp-...s-analysis.pdf

And here's a good, critical analysis of it:
https://youcanknowthings.com/2022/10...cine-analysis/

And yeah, it looks like p-hacking to me as well.

The big problem with the study is that it only looks at potential harms from vaccination, not benefits. That could have been done from the data the study used. Whether a vaccine is recommended or not is based on benefits/harms, not just harms. So it's simply insufficient to base not approving vaccines for males under 40.

marting 10th October 2022 09:43 AM

I read the Florida study last night and was most annoyed with the lack of related studies in the US.

But I was also annoyed with the lack of information on benefits and they are available. They have the full database and it's a fairly trivial SQL job run through R to get benefits out of the data as well as potential harms. And that was, unfortunately, the focus of the study.

The lack of these studies just feeds vax skeptics' wild theories.

There is a similar UK study, possible because of their national healthcare, that was referenced in the Florida study. They ref'ed it to butress their protocols and failed to note the study showed no significant vaccine risk. Sad.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....22.22272775v1

The Atheist 10th October 2022 11:48 AM

I said a while back that with the speed of omicron, it was going to need a recombination to change the landscape.

Well, we might just have one - XBB, which despite its cool name, is rampant in Singapore right now.

https://www.coronaheadsup.com/scienc...-in-singapore/

Quote:

XBB is currently the most antibody-evasive strain tested
I'm laying in a stock of paxlovid today, funnily enough. Hope it still works.

I see another claim on the same site:

Denmark: A soup of 120 Covid variants sequenced in one month

marting 10th October 2022 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13920814)
Well, we might just have one - XBB, which despite its cool name, is rampant in Singapore right now.
I'm laying in a stock of paxlovid today, funnily enough. Hope it still works.

Good find.

Should still work. XBB is one of the convergent evolution Omicron subvariants. And it looks like it has more immunity escape from vaccines based on the large shift in vxxed/unvaxxed cases since it took off in Singapore.

Just amazing how the little bugger just keeps finding a niche.

The Atheist 10th October 2022 04:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marting (Post 13920851)
Just amazing how the little bugger just keeps finding a niche.

It haunts me a little that my original covid roulette estimate of 60M deaths is still in play.

Officially, there have been 6M, while serious estimates are in the 15M range, and it's nowhere near done with us yet.

marting 10th October 2022 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13920990)
It haunts me a little that my original covid roulette estimate of 60M deaths is still in play.

Officially, there have been 6M, while serious estimates are in the 15M range, and it's nowhere near done with us yet.

No, it's not. Further, it seems that those recovered may have a higher risk of many other bad outcomes. This is also true for the flu but at lower levels than what appears to be the case with Covid-19. The long term consequences of Covid-19 sequelae is going to take years to figure out. Damn.

Puppycow 10th October 2022 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lplus (Post 13919515)
I'm not sure anyone has bivalent vaccines with BA.4 and/or BA.5. Here in the UK the vaccines with BA.1 are being rolled out. Had mine a week ago,.

They exist, but they may not be available where you live yet.

I was waffling over whether to wait longer to get my fourth dose so that I can get the newest bivalent formulation, but I've scheduled my appointment to get mine next Sunday. It will be the BA.1 formulation, not the newest one with BA.4/5. If I cancel that appointment and decide to wait for a couple more weeks maybe I can get the newest one, but that seems to be what a lot of people are doing and like in other countries the demand for a fourth dose seems to be much weaker than for previous doses. Whether that is because people have lost interest altogether or because they are holding out for the new BA.4/5 formulation remains to be seen.


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