Covid-19 and Politics pt 2
 

It's the story of his whole life, relying on everyone else to bail him out by doing all the hard work :mad:

Of course if and when a vaccine is available, I expect the rollout to be botched and for a lot of Johnson's friends to find themselves much richer....

Perhaps fast tracking companies which employ ex Tories ministers isn't the best way to ensure value for money

The Guardian: UK government orders halt to Randox Covid-19 tests over safety issues.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-safety-issues

How the vaccine is "rolled out" depends on availability. Vaccinating vulnerable groups and care workers seems sensible, but this isn't the case if the immunity is short-lived. If it only confers a few months immunity it's vital to use it strategically as part of an eradication strategy. Otherwise you're chasing your own tail.

If there's plenty vaccine, arrange for everyone who'll hold still to get it in a fairly narrow time window. This should reduce transmission to the point where herd immunity kicks in properly, although it would still be sensible to go on contact tracing and isolating during this time. Hopefully there would be no virus left by the time immunity begins to wane.

If vaccine stocks are limited it's better to use them for ring vaccination around identified outbreaks, again in conjunction with contact tracing and isolation. If there is sufficient you could also consider vaccinating front-line care workers, but the ring vaccination should be given priority. Done right, this also should lead to eradication, although on a longer time-scale.

The ideal use of a vaccine is to eradicate the disease and thus render itself obsolete. This is eradicable. It is not acceptable just to use a vaccine as a sticking-plaster to be reapplied every so often.

Correction. I found the modelling. As of tomorrow the number of infectious people in Scotland is estimated to be between 300 and 800, mid estimate 500. That's 0.009% of the population, or one in nearly 11,000 people.

Interestingly, although last week we had a couple of days with unexpectedly high numbers of new cases (18 and 19) the modellers don't seem to be thinking the situation as they're modelling it changes much because of that. The rate of decrease in infection is gradually decreasing from 30% to 26% but there has been no sudden change.

Tomorrow we're also predicted to have around 40 new cases (20 to 70) for real. It's hard to know whether to hope they're finding more of them (there was a specific plea yesterday for people with any symptoms to come forward for testing to help Scotland eliminate the virus) at the expense of the daily figures looking good, or that we'll come in well under the 18 cases found last Friday.

By the end of next week, barring some awful resurgence, we're predicted to have only 400 infectious people (200 to 600) and 30 (20 to 50) new infections per day. I originally thought these estimates were on the pessimistic side, but as they come down they look more realistic and more encouraging. I just hope all the opening-up we did yesterday doesn't fatally jemmy this trend.

They're paying a party donor with a couple of Non-Exec chairs to fill £15 billion for a Magic 8 Ball?

But that's just because Gove was caught in a sandwich shop without one (after saying wearing masks in shops didn't need to be mandatory because it's simple courtesy).

ETA: Ninja'd by the article. Government by 'making whatever a minister/PM Cummings was caught doing yesterday legal'

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...P=share_btn_tw



Brilliant as usual

Randox don't make swabs as far as I know, they make reagent kits. They're not my favourite supplier and my firm moved away from them in the 1990s, but they're not cowboys.

So actually the sort of company one might consider granting an emergency contract to with no competition?


But may not an ideal company.

There does seem to be an almost ideological belief that non experts are somehow better, see Dyson's ventilators. They are not cowboys either, but if the ventilators were needed, they wouldn't have been the best choice.

tbh if the "experts" are party supporters and/or donors then they might find themselves with the contract.

Of course it's a much grander, and hence headline grabbing, gesture if a company has to move heaven and Earth to deliver, rather than a better qualified company increasing their output by 17%. :rolleyes:

A digression:

Libertarian science fiction especially (Niven & Pournelle spring to mind) tends to have a sclerotic state that is hamstringing progress by its self-serving regulations. There are often entrenched business interests that are lazily profiting from the status quo, and are using the regulations to squash more agile startups.

The hero tends to be a buccaneering businessman who is wealthy, but not one of the elite. He ends up with a disruptive technology that would make everyone better except that the regulations are hampering him.

Sometimes, it's the antiscientific environmentalists with their belief in the global warming hoax despite the world sinking into an ice age

The only way for the hero to improve the world (and incidentally make him incredibly rich) is to somehow bypass the system and then present the state with a fait accompli.

Dominic Cummings seems to behave like someone who spent too much of his formative years reading such drivel - his vocabulary and initiatives make sense if you think that is how the world works.

After seeing Rolfe's post, I am not sure if that is the case with Randox, but certainly the Dyson ventilator initiative, for example, fits with such a narrative.

More good news for those of us living in Wales:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-53441302

Zero would be better, but this is still good news :)

The problem is England, which I can see from Don Towers, doesn't have such encouraging numbers but there's complete freedom of movement. I was planning a bike ride into England this morning but I think I'll head off into Wales instead - a shame because it's the only flattish ground anywhere close.

It's being walked back.

Gov't asks groups of young people, seniors not to use travel subsidy

Raises the following question: If they're going to spend 1.35 trillion yen to prop up the tourism industry, why not simply give the money to tourism related businesses directly instead of this bizarre system of subsidizing tourists. Perhaps because such a system might raise questions of fairness and political favoritism? But when you have cross purposes, you may have to choose one over the other. How do you promote tourism without simultaneously promoting spread of the virus?

Well, other than the actual 'producing something' bit.

It struck me as obvious (and breathtakingly cynical) self promotion.

Seriously, how big do you think the risk is while you’re on your bike in the open air, even at infection levels as high as Leicester?

True, but if you fall/get knocked off your bike and taken to A&E....

It’ll all be over by Christmas.

That’s news to me. Last time I checked, the only way you could join another household bubble was if you lived alone. My ex-wife has joined my daughter’s family bubble, so she can have her children to stay. I can’t do that because I don’t live alone.


Also, what 1 metre rule?

Please everyone understand this about government policy, we are given it, they then check to see it it is effective i.e. produces positive headlines in the important papers and media and important people are OK with it i.e. members of local tory party selection committees , if it does that then all is fine, if not it will have to be changed.

Also remember the policy is the act, there should be no assumption that anything bar the announcement will happen.

Oops. We in the B household were blithely assuming we'd be able to stay with friends when we return to the UK while we set up our own place. From my reading, overnight stays seem to be allowed now but with strong advice on social distancing, not sharing utensils etc etc. This would see to scupper the idea if both couples want to stick strictly with the advice.

I don't know if any of you UKians can shed any light on this. I'm not wild keen on the idea in the first place, but MrsB is very reluctant to rent an Airbnb for a week or three, for some reason that's beyond my comprehension.

Latest update:
Latest R number range for the UK
0.7-0.9

Latest growth rate range for the UK
-5% to -1%

England regions:

Region	R	Growth rate % per day
England	0.8-1.0	-4 to 0
East of England	0.8-1.0	-5 to +1
London*	0.8-1.1	-3 to +2
Midlands	0.7-1.0	-5 to -1
North East and Yorkshire*	0.7-0.9	-5 to -1
North West*	0.7-1.0	-6 to -1
South East*	0.8-1.0	-4 to 0
South West*	0.7-1.1	-6 to +2

^*Low case numbers and/ or a high degree of variability in transmission across the region means these estimates are insufficiently robust to inform policy decisions.

You're right, the risk is marginal but why take even a marginal risk if there's no compelling reason to do so ?

This is the current advice, as far as I know. I've reviewed it again, and Boris is simply talking out of his arse (no change there).
Nothing there which permits grandparents, in general, to have non-social-distanced contact with their grandchildren.

As for your situation, I believe this covers it:

In this particular instance, I'd say the risk of injury from the bike ride is greater than that of catching Covid-19, so you'd be better off staying home if you're worried about risks.

I'm going for a ride - a very dangerous pastime I'm led to believe ;) - no sense adding to the risk by going to England. :p

Well, since lockdown started, I have not, as far as I know, caught Covid-19 on a bike ride, but I have fallen off my bike. To be fair, that was in England. :p

In about an hour, I'm cycling to the pub.

Me too.......... today........... in Wales :o

In my defence I was approaching a cycle path at a roundabout and a car took the exit without signalling at significant speed. I had to stop suddenly, unclipped my left foot and fell to the right. Happily I landed on a grassy verge. :)

It's a nonexistent risk if you're in the open air and more than 2 metres away from anyone else the whole time.

If you want to know how the particular area you're going to is doing with current/recent infections, this interactive map is really useful. Zoom in to get details at a very local level. Just don't go anywhere near Colwall, Cradley & Wellington Heath, or if you do, don't go near anyone!

https://phe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/web...2c5f6912ed7076

I hit a speed bump I had forgotten about. Result: bit of road rash and a new helmet was needed. No lasting damage.


To return, somewhat, to the topic: Once again the Germans have the right word for the current political climate: "Fisselig", meaning "flustered to the point of incompetence".

Not sure if this is more of a politics or science post, but I'll put it here just for future reference.

Japan is having a second wave but the government doesn't seem to be responding with the same alacrity that it did the first time.

https://i.imgur.com/0eusjQS.png

Perhaps because the first wave was rather mild compared to those in other countries. Japan hasn't yet recorded its thousandth death from the disease and new daily deaths remain in the low single digits even as new infections are on the rise again.

In the above, the graph shows new daily infections.
The numbers on the top row are current infected patients, new infections (most recent day) and total infected patients. (Numbers in parentheses are the change from the previous day)
Second row is total deaths and total discharged patients.

Which is dwarfed by the undercounting at the peak of the pandemic.

On Twitter, I kept seeing claims that the 2017-2018 winter was as bad as COVID-19 so I plotted the ONS weekly deaths figures along with the figures for those where COVID-19 was listed on the death certificates for England and Wales

Because of this, I plotted the 2017, 2018 and 2020 deviation from the 2018 5-year average.

Notice the 2000-4000 per week undercounting during the worst part of the epidemic.

This is to week 22 because I'm reusing my images

Attachment 42620

Has he actually ordered a review now he has got the headlines and the lie out there?

I'm sure it will go as well as when that claim was made back in 1914.

Still, I'm looking forward to the Christmas day truce football against the virus, probably the only English football that will take place over that holiday given the government's competence at handling the pandemic

We’ll probably lose on penalties.

Any connection?

I’ve got one Facebook ‘friend’ posting that story and claiming (again) that it’s all no worse than flu and people are getting hysterical over nothing.

I can't believe people are making this argument but it does seem some are. Even though it completely ignores that the UK had the same death toll as a very bad flu season, at the completely wrong time of year, after shutting down a lot of the economy (admittedly far too late but it doesn't seem like they're arguing for an earlier and therefore less economically damaging shutdown).

You might find my pinned tweet and thread useful:

https://twitter.com/ParkinJim/status...54955778314240

ETA: Oh, someone's asked threadreaderapp to unroll it

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...778314240.html

ETA: I've also added the dates of full lockdown and the excess deaths vs those listed as COVID-19 up week 27, so that threadreader is a bit out of date

Attachment 42621

I would expect so, because he will want the better figures going forward.