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-   -   Merged: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=341650)

Capsid 31st January 2020 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12973585)
There's no question this virus jumped from animal to people. And jumping from one animal species to another as an intermediary before jumping to humans is very common.

It could also be that the first people infected, infected others at the market, or infected animals at the market that then infected more people.

I was just pointing out the market is no longer thought to be where patient zero acquired the infection.

It's uncommon for viruses to cross the phyla. Usually, mammal viruses infect mammals.

sphenisc 31st January 2020 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Capsid (Post 12973596)
It's uncommon for viruses to cross the phylaclasses. Usually, mammal viruses infect mammals.

FTFY

Capsid 31st January 2020 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sphenisc (Post 12973603)
FTFY



Thanks. I knew that really.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Skeptic Ginger 31st January 2020 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Capsid (Post 12973596)
It's uncommon for viruses to cross the phyla. Usually, mammal viruses infect mammals.

Interesting. It would appear we need to drop the snake connection altogether unless some better evidence than a possible correlation turns up.

CDC: Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that are common in many different species of animals, including camels, cattle, cats, and bats.

Livescience: He added that there is no solid evidence that coronaviruses can infect hosts other than mammals and birds. Brandão is currently investigating whether coronaviruses can infect snakes.

William Parcher 31st January 2020 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12973585)
I was just pointing out the market is no longer thought to be where patient zero acquired the infection.

I would expect patient zero to be an animal collector (hunter) or an animal middleman or an animal retailer, but not the end-person buying the animal for consumption.

Dr.Sid 31st January 2020 02:45 PM

I would expect we will never know. This virus is too stealthy for that.

Skeptic Ginger 31st January 2020 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 12973613)
I would expect patient zero to be an animal collector (hunter) or an animal middleman or an animal retailer, but not the end-person buying the animal for consumption.

Why? What do you base that on?

William Parcher 31st January 2020 02:46 PM

So now I want to know if bats were in season back on November 9th or if they were already hibernating and unavailable even to the bat hunters.

Skeptic Ginger 31st January 2020 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid (Post 12973616)
I would expect we will never know. This virus is too stealthy for that.

I think you underestimate how far the science has come.

From the CDC link:
Quote:

Chinese health authorities were the first to post the full genome of the 2019-nCoV in GenBankexternal icon, the NIH genetic sequence database, and in the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAIDexternal icon) portal, an action which has facilitated detection of this virus. CDC is posting the full genome of the 2019-nCoV viruses detected in U.S. patients to GenBank as sequencing is completed.

2019-nCoV is a betacoronavirus, like MERS and SARs, all of which have their origins in bats. The sequences from U.S. patients are similar to the one that China initially posted, suggesting a likely single, recent emergence of this virus from an animal reservoir.

William Parcher 31st January 2020 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12973617)
Why? What do you base that on?

The animal collector is the guy who grabs it from the wild. He hunts the caves and forests to snatch bats and maybe snakes too.

Dr.Sid 31st January 2020 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12973619)
I think you underestimate how far the science has come.

From the CDC link:

I don't think I do. I just don't understand how sequencing the genome will help in tracing the first human patient, who might have not showed any symptoms. If the virus induced severe, unmistakable symptoms in every human, it would be possible. But we know this virus does not.

Dr.Sid 31st January 2020 03:01 PM

New data about how the virus can spread asymptomatically:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/31/h...udy/index.html

William Parcher 31st January 2020 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid (Post 12973627)
I don't think I do. I just don't understand how sequencing the genome will help in tracing the first human patient, who might have not showed any symptoms. If the virus induced severe, unmistakable symptoms in every human, it would be possible. But we know this virus does not.

The "genetic clock" allows researchers to pinpoint when patient zero happened, but not who. Further research might be able to determine who but maybe not.

Dr.Sid 31st January 2020 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 12973640)
The "genetic clock" allows researchers to pinpoint when patient zero happened, but not who. Further research might be able to determine who but maybe not.

That would require sequencing of virus from every patient. While possible, is finding the first patient so important ?

William Parcher 31st January 2020 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid (Post 12973646)
That would require sequencing of virus from every patient. While possible, is finding the first patient so important ?

Maybe they come to learn that the only guy collecting bats from a cave on November 9th is a dude named Dr. Sid Guano. They'd like to meet with him but he died on November 16th.

Skeptic Ginger 31st January 2020 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 12973622)
The animal collector is the guy who grabs it from the wild. He hunts the caves and forests to snatch bats and maybe snakes too.

You don't think people come in contact with bats where they live?

Skeptic Ginger 31st January 2020 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid (Post 12973646)
That would require sequencing of virus from every patient. While possible, is finding the first patient so important ?

That's not how it works. Sampling is sufficient.

William Parcher 31st January 2020 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12973666)
You don't think people come in contact with bats where they live?

Not typically unless they live in bat caves.

China and a few other countries are unusual because they collect and eat bats.

Skeptic Ginger 31st January 2020 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 12973678)
Not typically unless they live in bat caves.

China and a few other countries are unusual because they collect and eat bats.

Bats live around people. Sometimes they roost in buildings.

dudalb 31st January 2020 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trebuchet (Post 12973471)
But there's good news: According to US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross the virus will be good for the US economy.

And in Italy, "Oriental" students who haven't been home in years are being kept out of class.

After all, all those chinks are not really human.....
Aside from the sheer heartlessness of it, it's stupid from an economic point of view. If the VIrus manages to do severe damage to the Chinese Economy, it will do severe damage to the World Economy, which will do damage to the US economy.

William Parcher 31st January 2020 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12973682)
Bats live around people. Sometimes they roost in buildings.

Which Chinese bat species are you talking about?

dudalb 31st January 2020 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12973666)
You don't think people come in contact with bats where they live?

Bats took up residence in a abandoned building just a couple of miles from where I live.
Needless to say, with a few days of this being known, the Batman emblem showed up on the side of the building....
Bats are much,much more common then people think....largely because Bats are nocturnal creatures and are not around in the daylight much.
And except for the danger of disease the kind in the US are pretty harmless. Most are fruit bats and seldom eat meat, and certainly will not attack something as big as human being.

Dr.Sid 31st January 2020 03:53 PM

Don't forget about things like this:

https://scontent-prg1-1.xx.fbcdn.net...aa&oe=5ED22B05

William Parcher 31st January 2020 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid (Post 12973696)
Don't forget about things like this:

https://scontent-prg1-1.xx.fbcdn.net...aa&oe=5ED22B05

Can't tell if fake.

Skeptic Ginger 31st January 2020 03:58 PM

They've built bat boxes in my neighborhood, the bats nest in them. At dusk you can sometimes see them flying after insects.

Capsid 31st January 2020 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12973692)
Bats took up residence in a abandoned building just a couple of miles from where I live.

Needless to say, with a few days of this being known, the Batman emblem showed up on the side of the building....

Bats are much,much more common then people think....largely because Bats are nocturnal creatures and are not around in the daylight much.

And except for the danger of disease the kind in the US are pretty harmless. Most are fruit bats and seldom eat meat, and certainly will not attack something as big as human being.



Fruit bats carry Nipah virus


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

William Parcher 31st January 2020 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Capsid (Post 12973702)
Fruit bats carry Nipah virus

And also Ebola virus and more.

Venom 31st January 2020 04:21 PM

Phylogenetic analyses of some hantaviruses show a bat link as well.

Hantavirus diseases make coronavirus diseases look like a walk in the park.

William Parcher 31st January 2020 04:49 PM

After some reading I found that the bat species, Rhinolophus affinis, seems to be the most likely candidate. There is an unpublished scientific paper on coronavirus in this species and it is a 96% match with the current epidemic. There are other species in the same genus with coronavirus with slightly less match percentage (still above 90%).

The common name for this bat is Intermediate Horseshoe Bat. They are common throughout South Asia, Southern and Central China and Southeast Asia. They are insectivores. The habitat is caves and sometimes hollow trees. I can't find records of this species living in homes or occupied dwellings.

In spite of a very close match there is no guarantee that this is the source animal.

EHocking 31st January 2020 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 12973698)
Can't tell if fake.

Woo knows no bounds,

https://www.sacredlotus.com/go/chine...-sha-bat-feces

William Parcher 31st January 2020 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EHocking (Post 12973781)
Woo knows no bounds,

Spicy cool.

Remedy for flu symptoms: Eat an Intermediate Horseshoe Bat and drink fresh Chinese Cobra blood.

dudalb 31st January 2020 06:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Capsid (Post 12973702)
Fruit bats carry Nipah virus


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I said except for the diseases.
But a lot of people have some idea bats delibertaly attack people.

Skeptic Ginger 31st January 2020 07:03 PM

Wow, Trump's going crazy. No surprise with his ignorance. So now Chinese nationals coming from China are banned from the US.

But what's he going to do when the virus spreads in multiple countries? Ban half the world from entering the US?

He's probably just trying to save himself.

The Great Zaganza 31st January 2020 07:22 PM

Could the virus come to US households via the millions of Amazon packages with Chinese products ordered all the time?
I just remembered the Osaka Flu from The Simpsons....

dudalb 31st January 2020 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12973878)
Wow, Trump's going crazy. No surprise with his ignorance. So now Chinese nationals coming from China are banned from the US.

But what's he going to do when the virus spreads in multiple countries? Ban half the world from entering the US?

He's probably just trying to save himself.

Yes.

dudalb 31st January 2020 07:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza (Post 12973897)
Could the virus come to US households via the millions of Amazon packages with Chinese products ordered all the time?
I just remembered the Osaka Flu from The Simpsons....

I just got a boardgame from a US company who has it printing done in Japan (Very common nowdays) and I admit that thought crossed my mind?

Though so far as we know, it has to be transmitted from living organism to living organism.
I think it is important we don't add to the hysteria by spreading BS rumors and peddling theories as facts.

Skeptic Ginger 31st January 2020 07:35 PM

It can't spread on Amazon packages. When have facts ever stopped Trump from revenge on his enemies?

Remember how Trump overreacted to ebola? Including his deep state paranoia that the CDC was covering up?

Kaiser Health News Morning Briefing
Quote:

Based On Trump’s Past Responses To Pandemics, Experts Worry About A Harmful Overreaction From President

Stat: Trump Is Facing His Biggest Outbreak Emergency — And Experts Are Worried
When Ebola was spreading in West Africa in 2014, Donald Trump took to Twitter. “STOP THE FLIGHTS!,” he blasted in all capital letters. “NO VISAS FROM EBOLA STRICKEN COUNTRIES.”
He even cast doubt on the honesty of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, tweeting: “Ebola is much easier to transmit than the CDC and government representatives are admitting. Spreading all over Africa — and fast.” (Fox, 1/28)...
It was not spreading all over Africa. Trump's paranoia makes him a menace.

Quote:

The Associated Press: As US Rescues Some From Virus In China, Others Left Behind
As hundreds of Americans prepare to evacuate Wuhan, the central Chinese city at the heart of a new virus outbreak that has killed over 100, San Francisco native Doug Perez is staying behind. It’s not that he’s unconcerned. Perez, 28, and his girlfriend have hunkered down in their apartment for the past five days. They’ve argued. They’ve fretted over missed food deliveries. They’ve dubbed their Labrador, Chubby, “Apocalypse Dog,” venturing out for short walks on deserted streets only after fitting him with a mask. (Kang, 1/28)

William Parcher 31st January 2020 07:49 PM

Well I suppose it could have been pilots or airlines refusing to do China flights instead of a government ban.

I read that immediate family of US citizens are exempt from the ban. They will likely require the quarantine.

The Atheist 31st January 2020 07:53 PM

I'm beginning to wonder if the virus isn't capable of sustained human to human transmission, or is just quite difficult to catch.

The first Japanese case was a tour bus driver who had been driving a tour of people from Wuhan and was diagnosed one week ago today. If he came down with it and it's easily spread, other people the tour came in contact with would be showing up by infected by now. All the hotel, shop, restaurant and tourism operators they came in contact with and it seems they didn't pass it on to them.

Time will tell, but the numbers aren't growing outside China as fast as they would be in a pandemic. The explosion of cases seen in Mexican 'flu hasn't happened.

Yet...

kellyb 31st January 2020 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 12973926)
I'm beginning to wonder if the virus isn't capable of sustained human to human transmission, or is just quite difficult to catch.

The first Japanese case was a tour bus driver who had been driving a tour of people from Wuhan and was diagnosed one week ago today. If he came down with it and it's easily spread, other people the tour came in contact with would be showing up by infected by now. All the hotel, shop, restaurant and tourism operators they came in contact with and it seems they didn't pass it on to them.

Time will tell, but the numbers aren't growing outside China as fast as they would be in a pandemic. The explosion of cases seen in Mexican 'flu hasn't happened.

Yet...

We'd be up to at least 100 confirmed cases in the US if this were nearly as contagious as flu or RSV, I'm 99.9% sure. I want to say in the 2009 zoonosis/pandemic, once it was detected in the US, it went up by about 30-40 cases per day for a few days in the early days. We're at 7 confirmed cases total in the US now.

This technically IS a pandemic right now by all definitions, but it looks like a pandemic that can (thankfully, probably) be controlled ("controlled" in an "eradicated" sense) with quarantine, like SARS was.

I'm sure it is capable of sustained human to human transmission under the right conditions, but that's a very different things from it being as contagious as flu (where you're liable to infect 10 or 20 people before you have so much as a slightly stopped up nose) so I think the public health authorities are doing the right thing to be going at quarantine measures with serious force.


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