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-   -   Merged: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=341650)

The Atheist 31st January 2020 09:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kellyb (Post 12973949)
We'd be up to at least 100 confirmed cases in the US if this were nearly as contagious as flu or RSV, I'm 99.9% sure. I want to say in the 2009 zoonosis/pandemic, once it was detected in the US, it went up by about 30-40 cases per day for a few days in the early days. We're at 7 confirmed cases total in the US now.

This technically IS a pandemic right now by all definitions, but it looks like a pandemic that can (thankfully, probably) be controlled ("controlled" in an "eradicated" sense) with quarantine, like SARS was.

I'm sure it is capable of sustained human to human transmission under the right conditions, but that's a very different things from it being as contagious as flu (where you're liable to infect 10 or 20 people before you have so much as a slightly stopped up nose) so I think the public health authorities are doing the right thing to be going at quarantine measures with serious force.

I'd have to agree with all that!

The Atheist 31st January 2020 09:15 PM

Should have read the news before posting - the suspected case in NZ isn't coronavirus, and since we have ~1500-odd Chinese arriving every day of the week, you'd think there would be one by now if it were as bad as the 'flu for contagion.

Still, early days and could change overnight, but the signs right now are pretty positive.

rjh01 31st January 2020 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza (Post 12973897)
Could the virus come to US households via the millions of Amazon packages with Chinese products ordered all the time?
I just remembered the Osaka Flu from The Simpsons....

Here is my post from yesterday which answers your question.
Quote:

Originally Posted by rjh01 (Post 12972746)
Here is a more reliable source
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html

Quote:

Q: Am I at risk for novel coronavirus from a package or products shipping from China?
There is still a lot that is unknown about the newly emerged 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) and how it spreads. Two other coronaviruses have emerged previously to cause severe illness in people (MERS and SARS). 2019-nCoV is more genetically related to SARS than MERS, but both are betacoronaviruses with their origins in bats. While we donít know for sure that this virus will behave the same way as SARS and MERS, we can use the information from both of these earlier coronaviruses to guide us. In general, because of poor survivability of these coronaviruses on surfaces, there is likely very low risk of spread from products or packaging that are shipped over a period of days or weeks at ambient temperatures. Coronaviruses are generally thought to be spread most often by respiratory droplets. Currently there is no evidence to support transmission of 2019-nCoV associated with imported goods and there have not been any cases of 2019-nCoV in the United States associated with imported goods.
Does not answer the question can I get it from touching something that another person, who is infected, has recently touched? And how long is recently?



Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 12973926)
I'm beginning to wonder if the virus isn't capable of sustained human to human transmission, or is just quite difficult to catch.

The first Japanese case was a tour bus driver who had been driving a tour of people from Wuhan and was diagnosed one week ago today. If he came down with it and it's easily spread, other people the tour came in contact with would be showing up by infected by now. All the hotel, shop, restaurant and tourism operators they came in contact with and it seems they didn't pass it on to them.

Time will tell, but the numbers aren't growing outside China as fast as they would be in a pandemic. The explosion of cases seen in Mexican 'flu hasn't happened.

Yet...

As you say it all depends on how many people each infected individual on average gives the virus to. If it is only 2 or 3 over a week or two then it will take a long time to spread, but it will spread. Then if these people get it but show no symptoms, but each pass it on to 2 or 3 other people it might take some time before it is obvious that it is spreading in other countries.

It might be more infectious in China because they smoke more there. This has been mentioned before.

Venom 31st January 2020 10:22 PM

I want it to reach more countries in higher numbers, a more sustained epidemic before I call it a pandemic.

Just looks like an outbreak, mostly primary exposure led to people getting sick as they boarded their flight and diagnosed when they arrived home. It hasn't been acting up too much in the countries seeded by the new virus.

marting 31st January 2020 10:57 PM

Johns Hopkins Dashboard
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

Export simulation and blog as of Jan 31
https://systems.jhu.edu/research/pub.../ncov-model-2/

The Great Zaganza 31st January 2020 11:02 PM

thanks for the information!

rjh01 1st February 2020 12:40 AM

Here is a very good YouTube on the subject from the SciShow channel. Short message "Do not panic".

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE

angrysoba 1st February 2020 03:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12973905)
I just got a boardgame from a US company who has it printing done in Japan (Very common nowdays) and I admit that thought crossed my mind?

Though so far as we know, it has to be transmitted from living organism to living organism.
I think it is important we don't add to the hysteria by spreading BS rumors and peddling theories as facts.

Japan is not the same as China.

Vixen 1st February 2020 03:39 AM

Some interesting trivia:

Did you know the word 'quarantine' comes from the Italian words quaranta giorni meaning 'forty days'.

carlosy 1st February 2020 05:07 AM

This might be interesting!

https://jameslyonsweiler.com/2020/01...s-wuhan-china/

He indicates that the virus might be coming from a laboratory. But not because of CT, but by accident.

The Link is quite technical, so I can't judge any of his claims.
But the bottom line is this:

Quote:

RECOMBINATION technology has been in use in molecular virology since the 1980ís. The structure of the 2019-NCoV virus genome provides a very strong clue on the likely origin of the virus.

Unlike other related coronaviruses, the 2019-nCoV virus has a unique sequence about 1,378 bp (nucleotide base pairs) long that is not found in related coronaviruses.

Looking at the phylogenetic tree recently published derived using all the full genome sequence, we see the 2019-nCoV virus does not have clear monophyletic support given the bootstrap value of 75 (Fig 1).

...

The disease progression in of 2019-nCoV is consistent with those seen in animals and humans vaccinated against SARS and then challenged with re-infection. Thus, the hypothesis that 2019-nCoV is an experimental vaccine type must be seriously considered.

Evidence for: Sequence homology between INS1378 to pShuttle Coronavirus vaccine; presence of a SARS-like Spike protein in bat coronavirus, otherwise most similar to bat coronaviruses; low bootstrap value.

Evidence against: Low sequence homology (but highly signifiant). NB these viruses are RNA viruses and they can evolve quickly, even under laboratory conditions.

Status: Most likely.

Test: Determine the nucleotide sequence all laboratory types of coronavirus being studied in China (a match will confirm). Find an isolate that matches 2019-nCoV in the wild and reproducibly independently isolate the virus from a wild animal (a match will falsify).

The available evidence most strongly supports that the 2019-NCoV virus is a vaccine strain of coronavirus either accidentally released from a laboratory accident, perhaps a laboratory researcher becoming infected with the virus while conducting animal experiments, or the Chinese were performing clinical studies of a Coronavirus vaccine in humans.

...

If the Chinese government has been conducting human trials against SARS. MERS, or other coronviruses using recombined viruses, they may have made their citizens far more susceptible to acute respiratory distress syndrome upon infection with 2019-nCoV coronavirus.

The implications are clear: if China sensitized their population via a SARS vaccine, and this escaped from a lab, the rest of world has a serious humanitarian urgency to help China, but may not expect as serious an epidemic as might otherwise be expected.

In the worst-case scenario, if the vaccination strain is more highly contagious and lethal, 2019-nCoV could become the worst example of vaccine-derived contagious disease in human history. With an uncharacteristic aysmptomatic prodromal period of 5-7 days, individuals returning from China to other countries must be forthright and cooperative in their now-prescribed 2-week quarantine.

catsmate 1st February 2020 05:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12972215)
My thought was to look at how many people in China are still smokers. It's very high.

With influenza, smoking puts you at higher risk of pneumonia. Smoking affects the cilia in the trachea. Influenza tends to infect cells in the middle airway (trachea). That's a double whammy on the defenses against bacteria getting into the lung.

I wonder how much smoking is going to be a factor for severe illness.

That's an interesting point.

catsmate 1st February 2020 05:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12972337)
Should we hide under the bed now? :)

No. That's cat territory and he's far scarier than 2019-nCoV.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12972337)
Speaking of avoiding the virus, when the 2009 flu variant was spreading, before the vaccine was available, I saw all the ways one could not avoid exposure. For example, try buying groceries if the clerk or the bagger are sniffing and coughing.

They both touch every one of your items. So do you wear gloves to put your food away? Leave the bags in the car for a sufficient amount of time for any surface contaminants to die?

But then what about the people you didn't see? At the produce area someone touches everything they put in the bins. Same with the meat in the meat area, someone touched each package of meat. And the plastic wrap in a refrigerated area is perfect for preserving surface contamination. At Whole Foods store employees are constantly spiffing up the shelves pulling all the products to the front.

So what do you do to avoid contaminated surfaces? It's one thing to wash your hands when you come in the house. But what if half the items in your kitchen are contaminated?


Try it: throughout the day see all the things that could have contaminated surfaces you cannot avoid touching.

Spray bleach everywhere? Carry a high powered UV lamp? Avoid human contact?

catsmate 1st February 2020 05:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12972408)
Won't be long before the scam artists start selling phony cures for the coronavirus.
Probably already happening in China.

They already are. The scum pushing MMS for example.

catsmate 1st February 2020 05:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12973701)
They've built bat boxes in my neighborhood, the bats nest in them. At dusk you can sometimes see them flying after insects.

There's a bunch of them around us.

catsmate 1st February 2020 05:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza (Post 12973897)
Could the virus come to US households via the millions of Amazon packages with Chinese products ordered all the time?

No.

Dr.Sid 1st February 2020 05:41 AM

New cases per day in China might have peaked. It didn't increase for 3 days. Of course, too soon to be sure. That would mean 'the light on the end of the tunnel'. Usually it happens at around 50% of total cases.

Red Baron Farms 1st February 2020 05:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by carlosy (Post 12974114)
This might be interesting!

https://jameslyonsweiler.com/2020/01...s-wuhan-china/

He indicates that the virus might be coming from a laboratory. But not because of CT, but by accident.

The Link is quite technical, so I can't judge any of his claims.
But the bottom line is this:

He is an antivaxxer who claims vaccines cause autism.

But I am not sufficiently educated enough to judge his work. I can only say that the claim that a vaccine for SARS has made the Chinese susceptible to the new 2019-nCoV seems to fit within most conspiracy theories made by antivaxxers....

So although I personally can't judge this article, I would urge extreme caution in believing or spreading information like this until someone with the expertise who can be trusted confirms its merits.

carlosy 1st February 2020 07:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Baron Farms (Post 12974127)
He is an antivaxxer who claims vaccines cause autism.

Ok, didn't knew that.
Only read that article which was linked in another non-CT forum.

William Parcher 1st February 2020 07:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12973878)
Wow, Trump's going crazy. No surprise with his ignorance. So now Chinese nationals coming from China are banned from the US.

But what's he going to do when the virus spreads in multiple countries? Ban half the world from entering the US?

He's probably just trying to save himself.

BBC reports that Australia has banned flights from China. So your fury can be applied to that country and its crazy top person as well.

Giordano 1st February 2020 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by carlosy (Post 12974114)
This might be interesting!

https://jameslyonsweiler.com/2020/01...s-wuhan-china/

He indicates that the virus might be coming from a laboratory. But not because of CT, but by accident.

The Link is quite technical, so I can't judge any of his claims.
But the bottom line is this:

This does really belongs in Conspiracy theory:. Technically because it implies a (1) secret development of a vaccine that (2) escaped and (3) the facts are being hidden by a group of insiders. But even more so because it ignores many of the known facts and it is made up instead of implausible or impossible conjectures that rely on melodramatic imaginations rather than logical ones. The sequence is absolutely consistent with the proposal that the 2019-ncov virus is a bat-like virus that acquired a "spike" protein from another coronavirus that allows it to more efficiently infect humans; it is the opposite of what one might expect of a virus engineered for a vaccine.

Some of the proposal may change as more details are revealed. The virus may be bat-like but may have infected the first humans from another species. Etc. But the chances it was human-engineered as described by some are virtually zero or below.

Giordano 1st February 2020 10:14 AM

Just one point about contaminated surfaces such as bagged groceries: both coronavirus and influenza virus are enveloped, meaning they are surrounded by a fatty-membrane that is required for them to be infectious. This membrane is easily destroyed by soap or alchohol or by drying out. Rough estimates are they can survive on a non-porous surface (metal) up to 24-48 hours or a porous surface (paper) 8-12 hours. It depends on what kind and how much liquid was deposited with them, the humidity, the temperature, etc.

So anything in your pantry is probably non-infectious by the next day or sooner.

William Parcher 1st February 2020 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Giordano (Post 12974259)
So anything in your pantry is probably non-infectious by the next day or sooner.

I read this and I think to myself, "Yeah but you used your hands to put these things in your pantry."

William Parcher 1st February 2020 12:04 PM

CNN: The eighth confirmed US case of the coronavirus is in a man in his 20s who lives in Boston, according to a press release from Boston and Massachusetts health officials. The man recently returned from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

The Massachusetts Department of Public Health and the Boston Public Health Commission were notified by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of the positive test results late Friday evening.

The man sought medical care soon after his return to Massachusetts, Massachusetts and Boston health officials said. He has been isolated since that time. His few close contacts have been identified and are being monitored for symptoms, according to the press release.

The Atheist 1st February 2020 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjh01 (Post 12973986)
It might be more infectious in China because they smoke more there. This has been mentioned before.

I think it's the severity rather than the likelihood of infection where smoking's an issue.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid (Post 12974123)
New cases per day in China might have peaked. It didn't increase for 3 days. Of course, too soon to be sure. That would mean 'the light on the end of the tunnel'. Usually it happens at around 50% of total cases.

Yep, that does seem to be the case, and I doubt it's being under-reported by China, so I think the numbers are very trustworthy.

If they have managed to control it, it will rank as one of the most successful medical operations in history.

Then imagine how the same control measures would have gone in USA if the boot had been on the other foot.

Giordano 1st February 2020 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 12974268)
I read this and I think to myself, "Yeah but you used your hands to put these things in your pantry."

Huh? If you are infected, or if you have contamination on your hands from someone else? Even then what you put in your pantry will have very little infectivity the next day. Unless you re-infect it with unwashed hands taking it out.

dudalb 1st February 2020 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Venom (Post 12973988)
I want it to reach more countries in higher numbers, a more sustained epidemic before I call it a pandemic.

Just looks like an outbreak, mostly primary exposure led to people getting sick as they boarded their flight and diagnosed when they arrived home. It hasn't been acting up too much in the countries seeded by the new virus.

It's not a pandemic yet, but it certainly seems the most serous problem of this kind we have seen ina while.
It's has been a century since the last really bad pandemic...the Flu pandemic of 1918 so we might be overdue. The law of averages always catehes up with yuu.

dudalb 1st February 2020 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by catsmate (Post 12974118)

Only thing I would use MMS for is cleaning my toilet....

But I can walk over to Home Depot and get a big bottle of chlorine for that an a fraction of the price the scam artists are charging for MMS.

dudalb 1st February 2020 12:31 PM

There are two extremes, blind panic and complacency;we need in this to avoid both.

novaphile 1st February 2020 03:13 PM

South Australia now has its first two confirmed cases.

A couple who have travelled from China.

Quote:

The couple in South Australia, a man and a woman both aged 60, were from Wuhan and visiting relatives in the state.

South Australia's chief public health officer Nicola Spurrier said they believed no one else in the state had been exposed to the pair.

"All of the right procedures were undertaken so we're not concerned about spread during that time and they have self-isolated in their home awaiting the results of the test," Dr Spurrier said.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-...toria/11920754

In this case I'm struggling to understand what "all the right procedures" could possibly mean.

Clearly it covers traveling in one or more aeroplanes from a place where the virus is to another place where the virus was not.

I'm reminded of an old joke:

"Once upon a time, everyone knew, if you get sick, you stay home.

Now, if you get sick the question is: "Where's the nearest movie theatre?"

novaphile 1st February 2020 03:16 PM

Actually, I'm really feeling sad for that couple.

If "no one else in the state has been exposed to the pair" that must mean that they were brought here in an air-tight box, or possibly a full body condom.

What an awful way to travel.

Skeptic Ginger 1st February 2020 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by carlosy (Post 12974114)
This might be interesting!

https://jameslyonsweiler.com/2020/01...s-wuhan-china/

He indicates that the virus might be coming from a laboratory. But not because of CT, but by accident.

The Link is quite technical, so I can't judge any of his claims.
But the bottom line is this:

Nonsense.

Skeptic Ginger 1st February 2020 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Giordano (Post 12974259)
Just one point about contaminated surfaces such as bagged groceries: both coronavirus and influenza virus are enveloped, meaning they are surrounded by a fatty-membrane that is required for them to be infectious. This membrane is easily destroyed by soap or alchohol or by drying out. Rough estimates are they can survive on a non-porous surface (metal) up to 24-48 hours or a porous surface (paper) 8-12 hours. It depends on what kind and how much liquid was deposited with them, the humidity, the temperature, etc.

So anything in your pantry is probably non-infectious by the next day or sooner.

Not everything has a dry surface. Lettuce, for example. By the time it's in your bag it has been touched by the grocer, clerk and the bagger.

Dr.Sid 1st February 2020 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12974503)
Nonsense.

Arguments ?

Skeptic Ginger 1st February 2020 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Giordano (Post 12974345)
Huh? If you are infected, or if you have contamination on your hands from someone else? Even then what you put in your pantry will have very little infectivity the next day. Unless you re-infect it with unwashed hands taking it out.

Studies of infectivity vary widely with influenza and I assume it's applicable to coronavirus.

I'm on the library wifi running out of time but when my cable comes back on I'll post some examples.

I should point out, I managed to avoid the 2009 flu.

Skeptic Ginger 1st February 2020 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid (Post 12974508)
Arguments ?

We know where it came from. why invent CTs?

Skeptic Ginger 1st February 2020 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 12974155)
BBC reports that Australia has banned flights from China. So your fury can be applied to that country and its crazy top person as well.

You have one of those right wing dictators in charge too, don't you? ;)

Skeptic Ginger 1st February 2020 04:06 PM

Speaking of being in the library, there must be 10 inconsiderate people in here right now with disgusting coughs. I'm going to suggest they put hand sanitizer and masks with a sign at the door like the clinics all have.

Venom 1st February 2020 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12974350)
It's not a pandemic yet, but it certainly seems the most serous problem of this kind we have seen ina while.
It's has been a century since the last really bad pandemic...the Flu pandemic of 1918 so we might be overdue. The law of averages always catehes up with yuu.

I'd say the last "really bad" pandemic was the 1957 "Asian flu", H2N2 pandemic.

Anything over a million deaths worldwide should be considered really bad imo, no matter the case fatality rate.

ETA: I might be mixing this up with the 1968 pandemic.

Dr.Sid 1st February 2020 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12974510)
We know where it came from. why invent CTs?

So .. none ?

The Atheist 1st February 2020 05:33 PM

Fair old jump in cases, or maybe the numbers catching up: 14,000 infections, 300 dead: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/...235839015.html

No deaths outside Hubei, which is a little odd, but hopefully a sign the virulence is dropping.


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