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-   -   Merged: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=341650)

Skeptic Ginger 24th January 2020 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arcade22 (Post 12964923)
Oh no! Two Chinese tourists in Finland from Wuhan are suspected of being suspected of being infected with the Death Virus.

:D:thumbsup:

Skeptic Ginger 24th January 2020 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Venom (Post 12965334)
It sounds like bad influenza rather than a bad cold, a few pegs higher.

Except really bad flu is waaaay worse than this.

Skeptic Ginger 24th January 2020 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by angrysoba (Post 12964905)
33 million people now under lockdown. Scary stuff whatever the severity of the illness itself because of the strain it will put on people’s lives and medical infrastructure.

It should cause people to think how futile such isolation will be.

Skeptic Ginger 24th January 2020 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Venom (Post 12965422)
An interesting entry about bats:

Also it made me wonder whether the preliminary study that traced the virus to snakes means maybe snakes got it from bats by eating them.

Coronavirus is endemic in a number of animal species. It will be a while longer before the genetic history is confirmed.

One of those articles said, people drank fresh snake blood in the market. It was supposed to have health properties.:eek:

Planigale 24th January 2020 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12965638)
I said, "a really nasty cold no one has immunity to spreading around the world."

If you hear that as "the common cold" then you don't understand what I mean. And if you believe, "The common cold does not cause fatal pneumonia," you are mistaken.

RSV causes common cold symptoms. https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/research/us-surveillance.html
Why aren't people panicked about that?

Pertussis reemerged in epidemic proportions more than a decade ago.
https://www.cdc.gov/pertussis/countries/index.html
Why aren't people panicked about that?

Current influenza status:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/?deli...DC_7_3-DM17996
Why aren't people panicked about that?



This new virus strain is going to spread around the world. There's a certain point where it is too late to put the genie back in the bottle and this has passed that point. It will be severe in some populations, especially the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions.

We've not heard yet about cases in India, and countries in Africa.
https://africatimes.com/2020/01/22/t...w-coronavirus/

China has had a growing financial interest in Africa for a couple decades. It is unlikely there are no cases in African countries yet. One thing we learned in extensive planning when H5N1 flu threatened to explode into a pandemic was the lack of public health infrastructure in many African countries and major cities. India had similar problems.

It was suggested that if a novel fu outbreak wasn't stopped in the first few weeks, we would not be able to stop it. The reason and why that differed from SARS was, with flu one has millions of mild cases that go under the radar.

Assessment of US hospital capacity including ICU capacity was done during flu pandemic planning. With a novel coronavirus there could be a problem but it won't likely be a total disaster.



From WHO

ProMed Moderator comment:


Given all that, what is it you expect me to post? I look at the media hype and my past experience with these threats and want to point out the media is very much hyping this story. Yes, they should be reporting about the attempts of China to isolate whole cities. That's a huge story. The cases showing up in different countries is an important story.

But they continue to call it "the deadly coronavirus" Do they call influenza, "the deadly influenza"? The deadly pertussis outbreak? The media might commonly add those adjectives from time to time, generally about clusters of deaths that occur intermittently.

This is a bad pathogen. No one has immunity. It is going to spread around the world like a wildfire. The fatality rate will not be in the millions, maybe 10s of thousands worldwide, but not millions. It will be high among older people and people with preexisting conditions. I fit that category because I'm on a high dose of prednisone.

I already checked, waterless hand cleaners with high enough alcohol content will destroy the virus on your hands. I already wash my hands all the time. I will be making sure I have waterless hand cleaner in my car and purse. I'll be more conscientious about all that for a while.

There is nothing to panic about. And it is going to spread.

Fatality rate is deaths / 100,000 infected, not an absolute number. (If you are going to be picky with others use terms correctly yourself.)

This desktop model of a coronavirus pandemic predicted global deaths of 65 million over 18 months.
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.o...01/videos.html
This is probably a more reliable estimate than your opinion.

Skeptic Ginger 24th January 2020 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Planigale (Post 12965698)
Fatality rate is deaths / 100,000 infected, not an absolute number. (If you are going to be picky with others use terms correctly yourself.)

This desktop model of a coronavirus pandemic predicted global deaths of 65 million over 18 months.
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.o...01/videos.html
This is probably a more reliable estimate than your opinion.

Yeah yeah, excuse my meaningless error. :rolleyes:

In the meantime re that desktop model: it's a model of a generic pandemic, not this one. Where did you get the idea that planning was about this coronavirus?

From the link
Quote:

Event 201 simulates an outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus transmitted from bats to pigs to people that eventually becomes efficiently transmissible from person to person, leading to a severe pandemic. The pathogen and the disease it causes are modeled largely on SARS, but it is more transmissible in the community setting by people with mild symptoms.
At a glance, this is not a deadly coronavirus like SARS. It's not a deadly disease like ebola. It's not the deadly influenza pandemic that still hasn't arrived.

Like I said, it's "a really nasty cold no one has immunity to spreading around the world."

dudalb 24th January 2020 05:53 PM

Only a matter of time before the conspiracy kooks panic over this. Any kind of disease outbreak sets them off bigtime.
And the media is now pushing this to the top of the list..just below the impeachment.

dudalb 24th January 2020 05:55 PM

TIme to watch "COntagion" again...

angrysoba 24th January 2020 06:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12965838)
Only a matter of time before the conspiracy kooks panic over this. Any kind of disease outbreak sets them off bigtime.
And the media is now pushing this to the top of the list..just below the impeachment.

I hope the impeachment is below Harry and Megan.

Venom 24th January 2020 07:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12965838)
Only a matter of time before the conspiracy kooks panic over this. Any kind of disease outbreak sets them off bigtime.
And the media is now pushing this to the top of the list..just below the impeachment.

Saw a few social media comments about this being a human population control or some stupid ****. What a poor disease to use as a human pest control. Our Cold War forefathers would be embarrassed.

The Atheist 24th January 2020 07:06 PM

Al Jazeera is reporting breaking news from Beijing that one of the doctors involved in treating patients in Wuhan has died from a confirmed infection of 2019-nCoV.

Venom 24th January 2020 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12965652)
Coronavirus is endemic in a number of animal species. It will be a while longer before the genetic history is confirmed.

One of those articles said, people drank fresh snake blood in the market. It was supposed to have health properties.:eek:

Sure, but given that mammal to mammal transmission is more common and presumably easier, it's kind of interesting that they came up with snakes.

Venom 24th January 2020 07:29 PM

I still think bats are the source of this outbreak, if it's ever found. Bats are the source of a bunch of other coronavirus diseases.

Look at this paper from yesterday.

Most of it is over my head but it was found that nCoV-2019 genetic makeup is 96% identical to a certain bat coronavirus.

novaphile 24th January 2020 07:37 PM

The first Australian case of coronavirus has been confirmed, with a man being held under isolation in a Melbourne hospital.

News of the case came after Chinese authorities said the death toll from the outbreak had jumped to 41, with 1,287 confirmed cases.

Source

rjh01 24th January 2020 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by novaphile (Post 12965926)
The first Australian case of coronavirus has been confirmed, with a man being held under isolation in a Melbourne hospital.

News of the case came after Chinese authorities said the death toll from the outbreak had jumped to 41, with 1,287 confirmed cases.

Source

I just hope they isolated him before he passed it onto others. The first GP to correct say to a person who has not been to China, nor knows anyone who has "I think we need to test for Coronavirus" and then the test comes back positive deserves a medal. I just hope this never happens.

The Atheist 24th January 2020 09:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjh01 (Post 12965977)
I just hope they isolated him before he passed it onto others.

I'm going with the experience of the futile Mexico City lockdown in 2009, when it had reached NZ before the quarantine went into effect.

Considering there are lots of mild cases, there will be huge numbers of people who haven't and won't be tested, but are all over the world, passing it on.

It's out, it's about, and there's no measures that will contain it.

I should start a poll on what the final death toll will be - my entry would be ~3 million worldwide.

The Atheist 24th January 2020 09:50 PM

One other prediction I'll make on the back of the forthcoming pandemic is that the financial fallout will tip the world into recession.

cullennz 24th January 2020 10:01 PM

Getting a tad hysterical now

Roboramma 24th January 2020 10:26 PM

So, here in China everyone is wearing surgical masks all the time. My (uninformed) understanding was that these will help prevent the spread of infections when those who are sick wear them, but don't really help protect healthy people from becoming infected.

I'm curious if anyone knows if this is accurate or not? (I should probably try to research this myself, and will do so later, but it might be a valuable addition to this thread to have some clarity on this point).

rjh01 24th January 2020 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 12966044)
I'm going with the experience of the futile Mexico City lockdown in 2009, when it had reached NZ before the quarantine went into effect.

Considering there are lots of mild cases, there will be huge numbers of people who haven't and won't be tested, but are all over the world, passing it on.

It's out, it's about, and there's no measures that will contain it.

I should start a poll on what the final death toll will be - my entry would be ~3 million worldwide.

The final world wide death toll would be unknown. Many people in poor countries would die from it and are buried without getting counted. But we would know the death toll of many countries that have good medical conditions. My guess is that you are right in that most people who get it will recover without treatment. The majority of those killed would be either children or the elderly or other vulnerable groups. Doubt if the death tolls in these places would be more than 0.1%.

rjh01 24th January 2020 10:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roboramma (Post 12966073)
So, here in China everyone is wearing surgical masks all the time. My (uninformed) understanding was that these will help prevent the spread of infections when those who are sick wear them, but don't really help protect healthy people from becoming infected.

I'm curious if anyone knows if this is accurate or not? (I should probably try to research this myself, and will do so later, but it might be a valuable addition to this thread to have some clarity on this point).

It looks like it. Here is a quote
Quote:

A surgical mask is not to be confused with a respirator and is not certified as such. Surgical masks are not designed to protect the wearer from inhaling airborne bacteria or virus particles and are less effective than respirators, which are designed for this purpose.[13]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surgical_mask

Anyone who wants a more reliable source can find one themselves and post it here.
They can start by reading this https://www.ccohs.ca/oshanswers/prev...rotection.html

Skeptic Ginger 24th January 2020 10:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roboramma (Post 12966073)
So, here in China everyone is wearing surgical masks all the time. My (uninformed) understanding was that these will help prevent the spread of infections when those who are sick wear them, but don't really help protect healthy people from becoming infected.

I'm curious if anyone knows if this is accurate or not? (I should probably try to research this myself, and will do so later, but it might be a valuable addition to this thread to have some clarity on this point).

If you absolutely have to rely on respiratory protection, the masks are not enough. Typical surgical masks were never intended to and never tested for protecting the wearer.

First, they need a tight seal around your face. Air will follow the path of least resistance.

Second the filter ability matters. None of these masks filter out virus sized particles. The heavier masks with face seals filter out 2 micron sized particles. Most viruses are smaller than one micron. They will filter out tuberculosis bacteria. They also aren't practical to wear around all day long.

But most of these respiratory viruses are not airborne. They are droplet spread. Droplets are large wet things which can be stopped by a tight fitting surgical mask.

A surgical mask with a reasonably tight fit and eye protection will protect you if someone coughs in your face. But so will staying a good 3 feet away from people.

Droplets are also contaminating surfaces and people touch them then touch their faces.

Given how infectious this pathogen is, we can't yet say if it is all airborne or mostly droplet spread. Truly airborne viruses are floating around as single viral particles and if the air is too saturated they are going to go around a mask. Stay away from crowded indoor areas. Out in the open is safer because the viruses are going to be in more diluted concentration.

Skeptic Ginger 24th January 2020 11:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjh01 (Post 12966082)

That's good information if you are a hospital worker.

novaphile 24th January 2020 11:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roboramma (Post 12966073)
So, here in China everyone is wearing surgical masks all the time. My (uninformed) understanding was that these will help prevent the spread of infections when those who are sick wear them, but don't really help protect healthy people from becoming infected.

I'm curious if anyone knows if this is accurate or not? (I should probably try to research this myself, and will do so later, but it might be a valuable addition to this thread to have some clarity on this point).

One of the main things that can stop a person from catching something, is if they never touch the "soft entry" points after having recently touched a contaminated surface.

So... if the face mask reminds a person not to touch their eyes, nose or mouth without washing their hands, it could prevent an infection.

The mask could also offer a little protection against air born fluids that contain the virus, but I'd suggest not much.

In usual medical settings, masks are used to prevent contamination getting into the patient via a wound/surgery etc.

Roboramma 24th January 2020 11:09 PM

Thanks. :)

ceptimus 24th January 2020 11:10 PM

Seems a bit futile to isolate sufferers on arrival at airports. On board the aircraft, they've just been kept for hours in close proximity to tens or hundreds of other passengers, who are by then likely infected but not yet showing symptoms.

How long before the authorities admit that they are powerless to prevent the virus from spreading globally?

Skeptic Ginger 24th January 2020 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ceptimus (Post 12966099)
Seems a bit futile to isolate sufferers on arrival at airports. On board the aircraft, they've just been kept for hours in close proximity to tens or hundreds of other passengers, who are by then likely infected but not yet showing symptoms.

How long before the authorities admit that they are powerless to prevent the virus from spreading globally?

And those exposed passengers all walk away while the person with symptoms is detained.

One thing that came up with flu pandemic planning was that the airlines could not tell us later who all the people on the plane were and where they went. Airlines are supposed to have corrected that deficiency. Years later, I doubt plans are still in place in all the airports.

They are in most medical facilities in the US that did the initial planning. That they asked Trebuchet if he'd been in China is a good sign clinics are following protocols.

Venom 24th January 2020 11:53 PM

Roboramma here's a Chinese doctor who thinks he got infected through his eye.

His illness began with a little conjunctivitis.

Skeptic Ginger 25th January 2020 12:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Venom (Post 12966134)
Roboramma here's a Chinese doctor who thinks he got infected through his eye.

His illness began with a little conjunctivitis.

Actually, that's not farfetched. That's why I mentioned eye protection. All these people are covering their nose and mouth and not realizing these viruses can enter through your eyes as well.

novaphile 25th January 2020 12:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12966159)
Actually, that's not farfetched. That's why I mentioned eye protection. All these people are covering their nose and mouth and not realizing these viruses can enter through your eyes as well.

Yeah, eyes are one of those "soft entry points"

So face masks and eye shields...

Fortunately, as a formerly regular commuter cyclist, I have both of these things.

The Atheist 25th January 2020 03:00 AM

Four cases confirmed in Aussie, further emphasising the futility of the Chinese lockdowns.

I'd say the actual number of infections right now is probably 100k, not the 1000 confirmed cases.

The big unknown at the moment is whether the virus mutates now it's got a new animal infected.

Travis 25th January 2020 03:47 AM

Apparently it has an R-Naught or R0 of somewhere between 2.5 and 3.5 which makes it considerably dangerous and likely to spread regardless of quarantines. No one knows the fatality rate for sure but on Twitter I've seen reports that initial WHO numbers are somewhere from 3-14% but there are suspicions the Chinese are underreporting. It is spread by air from human to human and it is possible to transmit it before showing any symptoms.


I'd say that all says we need to take it super seriously. And the videos I've seen coming out of Wuhan don't calm my nerves, hospitals are stacking dead bodies in the hallways, some are apparently closing while the Government is constructing an emergency field hospital to only treat infected patients.



I'm not going to pretend I'm expert but from my lay perspective this looks to have the best potential for a 1918 type pandemic of anything I've seen in my lifetime.

Planigale 25th January 2020 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12965724)
Yeah yeah, excuse my meaningless error. :rolleyes:

In the meantime re that desktop model: it's a model of a generic pandemic, not this one. Where did you get the idea that planning was about this coronavirus?

From the link

At a glance, this is not a deadly coronavirus like SARS. It's not a deadly disease like ebola. It's not the deadly influenza pandemic that still hasn't arrived.

Like I said, it's "a really nasty cold no one has immunity to spreading around the world."

It is a model of a coronavirus pandemic. Obviously not the current one as it was modelled last year. The estimated R0* and fatality rates in the model are equivalent to current estimates. This model is the best currently available for an estimate of the impact of this virus unless infection control procedures can limit its spread. More information with more accurate estimates of critical transmission values will become available. The best estimate we have is millions of deaths.

Any action early in an outbreak / epidemic to slow spread is worth while as it spreads the epidemic overtime, a pandemic over 2 years is far easier to manage than over 1 year. It also gives more time for diagnostic, treatment and vaccine development.

*An R0 > 1 means that each case infects more than one person, i.e. it is not self limiting. MERS has an R0 <1, SARS has an R0 = 2-4.
https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/368/bmj.m308.full.pdf

The Atheist 25th January 2020 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis (Post 12966214)
No one knows the fatality rate for sure but on Twitter I've seen reports that initial WHO numbers are somewhere from 3-14% but there are suspicions the Chinese are underreporting.

While the death rate appears at that level, the information coming from specialists suggests that it's nowhere near 3%. My best estimate is that it's somewhere between common cold and influenza on the death scale - between 0.01 and 0.04%.

I admit, I was thrown off by the early numbers in terms of fatality rates, but it's nowhere near that levels you're thinking. There are clearly tens or hundreds of thousands of people with the virus right now. The "official" total of 1400 is a joke.

Never mind the odd brown bread dude in the corridors at hospitals, at an infeection rate of ~3, with current numbers of infected, you'd be seeing dead bodies in the street.

I'd even venture that in the northern winter, a lot of people going to hospitals actually have influenza or an ordinary cold.

Dr.Sid 25th January 2020 12:16 PM

Well China is either over-reacting, or under-reporting. My bet would be the second. They are scared poopless.

Skeptic Ginger 25th January 2020 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis (Post 12966214)
Apparently it has an R-Naught or R0 of somewhere between 2.5 and 3.5 which makes it considerably dangerous and likely to spread regardless of quarantines. No one knows the fatality rate for sure but on Twitter I've seen reports that initial WHO numbers are somewhere from 3-14% but there are suspicions the Chinese are underreporting. It is spread by air from human to human and it is possible to transmit it before showing any symptoms.


I'd say that all says we need to take it super seriously. And the videos I've seen coming out of Wuhan don't calm my nerves, hospitals are stacking dead bodies in the hallways, some are apparently closing while the Government is constructing an emergency field hospital to only treat infected patients.



I'm not going to pretend I'm expert but from my lay perspective this looks to have the best potential for a 1918 type pandemic of anything I've seen in my lifetime.

Coming from the WHO or not, those are simply not scientific evidenced based numbers.

It will take antibody testing of a representative group to determine the actual numbers of infections. Even without underreporting, you have to find the unrecognized cases.

Skeptic Ginger 25th January 2020 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Planigale (Post 12966336)
It is a model of a coronavirus pandemic. Obviously not the current one as it was modelled last year. The estimated R0* and fatality rates in the model are equivalent to current estimates. This model is the best currently available for an estimate of the impact of this virus unless infection control procedures can limit its spread. More information with more accurate estimates of critical transmission values will become available. The best estimate we have is millions of deaths.

Any action early in an outbreak / epidemic to slow spread is worth while as it spreads the epidemic overtime, a pandemic over 2 years is far easier to manage than over 1 year. It also gives more time for diagnostic, treatment and vaccine development.

*An R0 > 1 means that each case infects more than one person, i.e. it is not self limiting. MERS has an R0 <1, SARS has an R0 = 2-4.
https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/368/bmj.m308.full.pdf

This is more nonsense. That hypothetical model was for a highly lethal pathogen.

:rolleyes:

If you want to wallow in needless fear, be my guest.

Venom 25th January 2020 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis (Post 12966214)
I'm not going to pretend I'm expert but from my lay perspective this looks to have the best potential for a 1918 type pandemic of anything I've seen in my lifetime.

Now that's some bull ****

So far it looks quite like the SARS or MERS outbreaks in size and scope up until this point.

Skeptic Ginger 25th January 2020 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid (Post 12966461)
Well China is either over-reacting, or under-reporting. My bet would be the second. They are scared poopless.

I believe you have to understand the cultural influence on their reaction.

One, they were criticized for their inadequate reaction to SARS.

Two, they probably have an inadequate health infrastructure in many of the affected areas.

Three, they were facing extensive population movement with the new year holiday. People all travel home.

Four, we should ask Roboramma for his insight.

Skeptic Ginger 25th January 2020 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Venom (Post 12966487)
...

So far it looks quite like the SARS or MERS outbreaks in size and scope up until this point.

No it doesn't!!!!!!

Some people in this thread apparently don't remember what the SARS pandemic was like.


And BTW, the SARS and MERS outbreaks are nothing like each other. If they were there would have been mass fatalities at the last couple Haj pilgrimages.


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