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-   -   Merged: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=341650)

William Parcher 1st March 2020 12:51 PM

Officials say it has been lurking wild in Washington State for weeks.

alfaniner 1st March 2020 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 13006342)
Panic buying happening now at stores throughout the West Coast. No, you will not find toilet paper or Clorox wipes. Hurry for canned foods.

I usually buy my TP in bulk anyway, so I always have a supply on hand. But I would never consider it a top-level item in a crisis. I did actually go to WM last night and stocked up on canned goods. Lots of areas looked ransacked but I don't know if that was just the standard for that particular store.

There hasn't been a confirmed case yet in this state so there has not been a lot of concern as far as I've seen.

angrysoba 1st March 2020 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Meadmaker (Post 13006334)
Does anyone have reports of if coronavirus fears are affecting high school or college sports?

I have one tiny anecdote. This weekend was the opening weekend of the FIRST Robotics competitions season. One tradition is that when the last round of the tournament begins, the drive teams of the two competing alliances, about thirty total students, join each other on the center of the field for a pre-match handshake.

I didn't notice it at the time, but there was no pre-match handshake. On the main forum for FIRST discussions, that was pointed out that this happened at several events. I don't know if it was at all events. There was no "due to coronavirus...." announcement, but it just didn't happen like normal.

Our season closing world championship events are seven and eight weeks from now, in Houston and Detroit. (There are two events, both called "World Championship", but half the world goes to one, and half to the other.) There, thousands of students will be coming from around the world, although mostly the United States and Canada, to compete in one stadium, and interact a lot. We are a bit worried that Coronavirus fears could disrupt that event. We already know that the Chinese teams won't be coming, but in seven weeks there could be a lot more restrictions from a lot more places.

I wonder if events like the NCAA Final Four basketball tournament, or just regular high school and college events are under pressure to cancel events. I know that there are discussions about Olympics as well. The actual Olympics are still a ways away, but I would guess World Championships and other qualifying international events are going on either now, or in the next couple of months.

Expect massive disruption to major sports events!

Here in Japan there have been numerous cancellations of events including for Olympic qualifying events. Many more such as the sumo tournament in Osaka, and pre-season baseball games, will be played behind closed doors. The Tokyo marathon that was run yesterday will only consisted of 200 athletes as 38,000 amateurs were told they couldn’t run (and were given no refund).

The Paris half marathon, also yesterday, was cancelled. North Korea’s Pyongyang marathon also cancelled. Italian Serie A matches also cancelled.

Unless there is some major seasonal variation, this is only just beginning and you can expect cancellations to be the norm. If you’re a fan of Liverpool F, C and have been looking forward finally seeing them win the Premier League then I think you could be about to miss out in the cruelest way.

The Atheist 1st March 2020 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 13006439)
Officials say it has been lurking wild in Washington State for weeks.

I'll buy that - it all adds up and makes the maths work properly.

Quote:

Originally Posted by angrysoba (Post 13006444)
Expect massive disruption to major sports events!

I said yesterday that I expected the remaining 6N games to be called off. Italy is definitely out, and by the weekend, I expect the UK numbers to be at the stage where they pull the plug.

Quote:

Originally Posted by angrysoba (Post 13006444)
If you’re a fan of Liverpool F, C and have been looking forward finally seeing them win the Premier League then I think you could be about to miss out in the cruelest way.

Excuse me if I laugh about that.

I wonder if there's a rule about games being called off before the end of the season?

portlandatheist 1st March 2020 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 13006439)
Officials say it has been lurking wild in Washington State for weeks.

there's a new case in Federal Way which is significant distance from Kirkland.
It is probably a lot more widespread than we know about.
https://www.king5.com/article/news/h...f-09250706a2cd

angrysoba 1st March 2020 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13006449)
Excuse me if I laugh about that.

I’m and Everton fan, so be my guest.

Skeptic Ginger 1st March 2020 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trebuchet (Post 13006336)
I'm on the Olympic peninsula. Can we please shut down the ferry system, Hood Canal Bridge, and Tacoma Narrows Bridge?

With a stray case in Federal Way, it might be too late.

I'm telling you though, when a fairly substantial outbreak and exposure risk is within a 10 mile radius, it changes one's perspective. If I would have known I could have driven further to buy supplies. Our Whole Foods is across the street from Overlake Hospital where one patient is and where the staff often come over on their breaks or at the end of their shifts, (think I said that upthread as well). I did some of my shopping there a couple days ago.

The median incubation in one study is only 4 days. That means we could already be several layers deep into this. I'll post a link.

Skeptic Ginger 1st March 2020 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 13006342)
Panic buying happening now at stores throughout the West Coast. No, you will not find toilet paper or Clorox wipes. Hurry for canned foods.

The news media shows a couple stores, there are probably more than a few not yet affected by panic buying. But give it a few more days.

William Parcher 1st March 2020 01:26 PM

The Louvre is closed because the staff is scared.

pipelineaudio 1st March 2020 01:33 PM

You guys are all catching up to where we were a week ago. Since our food has to leave your port before it gets to us, I think you guys will be restocked long before we will.

I'll be climbing up some coconut trees and by some crazy miracle, the avocado trees all over the island are exploding, like you have to have garbage bags to get them all!

Minoosh 1st March 2020 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by angrysoba (Post 13006444)
North Korea’s Pyongyang marathon also cancelled. Italian Serie A matches also cancelled.

That is fascinating. I'd think NK would be more epidemic-resistant than most places, but it is sandwiched between a couple of seriously affected countries, presumably with trade ties to China. It would be interesting to know,how internal discussions on that played out, and how it was announced to the public. I can't quite imagine that government admitting it's afraid of anything.

Minoosh 1st March 2020 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza (Post 13006327)
If there is only a single case in a Pakistani prison, we'll be looking at hundreds of cases next week.

A single case in a Pakistani prison seems almost like a contradiction in terms. Which may be your point.

The Atheist 1st March 2020 01:45 PM

Cases outside China have doubled in the past three days.

The previous doubling took four days, the one prior to that five.

The growth is now exponential, and even if extreme measures are taken, it's too late, because it's clear cases have been going undetected.

My guess is an official count of a million cases outside China by 10 March + 2days.

angrysoba 1st March 2020 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Minoosh (Post 13006480)
A single case in a Pakistani prison seems almost like a contradiction in terms. Which may be your point.

Yeah, it looks like Iran’s Evin prison could have also have an outbreak. A British-Iranian woman serving time there on trumped up charges of espionage fears she also has the disease:


https://www.theguardian.com/news/202...e_iOSApp_Other

Dr.Sid 1st March 2020 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13006483)
Cases outside China have doubled in the past three days.

The previous doubling took four days, the one prior to that five.

The growth is now exponential, and even if extreme measures are taken, it's too late, because it's clear cases have been going undetected.

My guess is an official count of a million cases outside China by 10 March + 2days.

That's not possible. There is no capacity to even test that many cases.

angrysoba 1st March 2020 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13006483)
Cases outside China have doubled in the past three days.

The previous doubling took four days, the one prior to that five.

The growth is now exponential, and even if extreme measures are taken, it's too late, because it's clear cases have been going undetected.

My guess is an official count of a million cases outside China by 10 March + 2days.

One expert on infectious diseases talks about a model created by the Gates Foundation for spread and expected numbers in a simulation they ran for a more infectious flu:

Quote:

You have said that time and trust are critical to good epidemic management. What do you mean?
The delay between the frontline health workers noticing something unusual, in the form of an emerging disease, and that information travelling up the line to central decision-makers is critical. To illustrate that, a 2018 simulation that the Gates Foundation conducted of a flu pandemic estimated that there would be 28,000 after one month, 10 million after three months, and 33 million after six months. The virus used in that simulation was more contagious and deadly than Covid-19 – though they are both respiratory viruses – but the example shows how all epidemics grow exponentially. So if you can catch an epidemic in the first few weeks, it makes all the difference. As for trust, it’s critical to disseminate dispassionate, evidence-based information, and not to try to mislead the population. If you do, they will stop cooperating. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen in China.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...e_iOSApp_Other

rjh01 1st March 2020 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13006483)
Cases outside China have doubled in the past three days.

The previous doubling took four days, the one prior to that five.

The growth is now exponential, and even if extreme measures are taken, it's too late, because it's clear cases have been going undetected.

My guess is an official count of a million cases outside China by 10 March + 2days.

Check your maths. I think you are out by a factor of 10. It will take until 23 March to get a million cases. This depends on how fast you assume it is spreading. I assume a doubling in four days. But if it is any less I may have to consult you about new glasses.

But as someone has already pointed out, they may have stopped counting by then.

Captain_Swoop 1st March 2020 02:21 PM

Coronavirus: Thirteen more cases confirmed in UK

Quote:

Twelve more people in England and one in Scotland have tested positive for coronavirus, taking the total number of UK cases to 36.

Scotland confirmed that its first patient was a Tayside resident who recently returned from Italy.

Three of the new cases in England were linked to a man from Surrey, who was the first to be infected within the UK.

It comes after Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the UK was still in the "containment" phase of the outbreak.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51697991

rjh01 1st March 2020 02:25 PM

If you want to detect an outbreak of a disease BEFORE anyone else then you ask Google what are people asking it? If a known disease has as its first symptom blurry eyesight and people start googling blurry eyesight then it is evidence that this disease has started its outbreak. And this would be before doctors get consulted in bulk about blurry eyesight.

For blurry eyesight substitute something more realistic.

theprestige 1st March 2020 02:34 PM

So. What's the leading indicator? Cough? Fever? Malaise?

portlandatheist 1st March 2020 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjh01 (Post 13006514)
If you want to detect an outbreak of a disease BEFORE anyone else then you ask Google what are people asking it? If a known disease has as its first symptom blurry eyesight and people start googling blurry eyesight then it is evidence that this disease has started its outbreak. And this would be before doctors get consulted in bulk about blurry eyesight.

For blurry eyesight substitute something more realistic.

Google used to publish this data with flu trends but they no longer do so.
https://www.google.org/flutrends/about/

SuburbanTurkey 1st March 2020 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 13005318)
Don't you think that is being a bit paranoid?

I live..as my above post shows...pretty damn close to a hospitlized Corona case...and I feel no need to go into survivialist mode. Take precautions sure, but that seems a bit extreme.

I have some emergency supplies (mainly in case of an Earthquake) and those will do for now.

I mean, I only bought food I'd eat anyway. This isn't a basement full of MRE's. It's food that we often eat that won't spoil. A few pounds of frozen ground meat, chicken breasts, butter, flour, and so on. If I don't need it, it'll just save us a few trips to the store until we eat it all. Normally the wife and I go to the grocery store 1-2 times a week. That doesn't seem that ideal if there is a virus spreading through town.

Captain_Swoop 1st March 2020 02:40 PM

Trump tweets

A Poll in today’s New York Post says that 77% of “U.S. adults have confidence in their government’s ability to handle the Coronavirus (Number One), compared to other health threats.” 64% for Zika, 58% for Ebola. Others way down on list. Our professionals are doing a great job!

pipelineaudio 1st March 2020 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey (Post 13006532)
I mean, I only bought food I'd eat anyway. This isn't a basement full of MRE's. It's food that we often eat that won't spoil. A few pounds of frozen ground meat, chicken breasts, butter, flour, and so on. If I don't need it, it'll just save us a few trips to the store until we eat it all. Normally the wife and I go to the grocery store 1-2 times a week. That doesn't seem that ideal if there is a virus spreading through town.

Dude, that aint survival food! That's hey, next time I'm in the area I'm coming over for lunch! food

Where are you at and what can I bring :)

The Atheist 1st March 2020 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid (Post 13006500)
That's not possible. There is no capacity to even test that many cases.

In the entire world? You could be right, but that's where I'd expect the numbers to be.

Given that I reckon we're light by a factor of 10 in the official numbers, I imagine we'll be at a million cases about lunchtime tomorrow.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjh01 (Post 13006507)
Check your maths. I think you are out by a factor of 10. It will take until 23 March to get a million cases. This depends on how fast you assume it is spreading. I assume a doubling in four days. But if it is any less I may have to consult you about new glasses.

Well, the last double took three days, and I'm picking it will double in the next two days, then keep increasing exponentially until shutdowns start to slow it a bit.


Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13006535)
Trump tweets

A Poll in today’s New York Post says that 77% of “U.S. adults have confidence in their government’s ability to handle the Coronavirus (Number One), compared to other health threats.” 64% for Zika, 58% for Ebola. Others way down on list. Our professionals are doing a great job!

Ask again in 10 days' time.

Not that I'm sure NY Post readers are a good guide.

The Atheist 1st March 2020 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theprestige (Post 13006527)
So. What's the leading indicator? Cough? Fever? Malaise?

Much like influenza - cough, fever, feeling like crap.

The problem starts if it causes pneumonia.

Meadmaker 1st March 2020 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 13006342)
Panic buying happening now at stores throughout the West Coast. No, you will not find toilet paper or Clorox wipes. Hurry for canned foods.

I had to go to the store today, so after I read this I wondered if here in Michigan there would be signs of this. Would they be on the shelves?

There was no shortage of disinfecting wipes. In fact, they were prominently displayed in the entrance display of the store at both Meijer and Home Depot.

SuburbanTurkey 1st March 2020 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pipelineaudio (Post 13006540)
Dude, that aint survival food! That's hey, next time I'm in the area I'm coming over for lunch! food

Where are you at and what can I bring :)

I mean, I do have 1000 rounds of 5.56 and 1000 rounds of 9mm. Does that give me end of the world cred? Why stock resources when you have a superiority of violence?

angrysoba 1st March 2020 04:58 PM

Will the US set up drive through testing like they are doing in South Korea? It does look like South Korea has been more on top of this than most other countries I can mention.

William Parcher 1st March 2020 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theprestige (Post 13006527)
So. What's the leading indicator? Cough? Fever? Malaise?

They are saying the initial symptoms are sore throat and headache moving to fever. That's not really different than getting sick from other common illnesses.

Unfortunately the earliest leading indicator is that you are all good. Infecting everyone while bopping around on top of the world wondering who is down with that coronavirus.

William Parcher 1st March 2020 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alfaniner (Post 13006443)
I did actually go to WM last night and stocked up on canned goods. Lots of areas looked ransacked but I don't know if that was just the standard for that particular store.

What I want to know about is Pringles. Did you look?

Skeptic Ginger 1st March 2020 05:21 PM

Two new cases here: one at Valley Medical, Renton, the hospital I used to work at.

The other at Swedish Virginia Mason, Seattle, where my DIL currently works! At least she's in surgery and not on a ward or the ED. Plenty of personal protective gear. That leaves the break or lunch room, or nearby restaurants for exposure risk.

https://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/hea...d19-cases.aspx

Might be a priest infected in Rome. The Pope has been ill and he's often exposed. I hope that's not coronavirus.

Schumer's introduced a bill making the vaccine, when developed, covered under Medicare.

McConnell better not sit on this bill or he's toast in 2020. I hope he's toast in 2020 anyway of course.

arthwollipot 1st March 2020 05:25 PM

South Korea to charge Shincheonji church leader over coronavirus spread, church accused of hiding information

Quote:

The leader of a religious sect in South Korea is facing charges of gross negligence over some of the country's coronavirus deaths.


Seoul's city government asked prosecutors to charge Lee Man-hee, the founder of the Shincheonji church, and 11 others. The church is accused of hiding the names of some members as officials tried to track patients before the virus spread.

South Korea is battling the worst coronavirus outbreak outside China, with almost 4,000 cases confirmed and 21 deaths so far.

Most of the South Korean patients have been traced to a branch of the Shincheonji church of Jesus in the south-eastern city of Daegu.

The church, a secretive religious sect and alleged "super spreader" has reportedly been dubbed a "public harm auntie" by South Koreans who are angry its followers appear to be ignoring advice to get tested.

Authorities say the style of worship — tightly packed congregations where worshippers kneel close together — means cases among followers will continue to rise.

Shincheonji Church of Jesus worshipers are also forbidden from wearing glasses and face masks during prayer services, which may have helped the virus spread.

The founder claims to be the second coming of Jesus.

marting 1st March 2020 05:35 PM

Just stopped at the grocers here in San Diego. No shortages. Lines were normal and people were buying the usual stuff. Should be interesting in another few weeks.

The Atheist 1st March 2020 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey (Post 13006629)
I mean, I do have 1000 rounds of 5.56 and 1000 rounds of 9mm. Does that give me end of the world cred? Why stock resources when you have a superiority of violence?

Damn right - shoot the virus!

Quote:

Originally Posted by angrysoba (Post 13006643)
Will the US set up drive through testing like they are doing in South Korea? It does look like South Korea has been more on top of this than most other countries I can mention.

Probably than any other country. Highly organised, population generally obey orders, and everyone is an army reservist. Highly structured society with very strong government tracking systems.

If they can't limit the spread, we're going to see some very ugly scenes very quickly.

Quote:

Originally Posted by marting (Post 13006673)
Just stopped at the grocers here in San Diego. No shortages. Lines were normal and people were buying the usual stuff. Should be interesting in another few weeks.

One week, not several. The lag in symptoms and testing means USA will get hit with large increases starting about Wednesday & then all hell will start to break loose.

Unless, of course, Pence keeps a lid on the information, but no elected US official would lie, so should be fine.

alfaniner 1st March 2020 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 13006649)
What I want to know about is Pringles. Did you look?

I remember avoiding the snacks aisle 1) because I didn't want to be tempted and 2) I remember one of the stocking guys was blocking the aisle.

rjh01 1st March 2020 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey (Post 13006629)
I mean, I do have 1000 rounds of 5.56 and 1000 rounds of 9mm. Does that give me end of the world cred? Why stock resources when you have a superiority of violence?

The problem is that you might come across a person who is willing and able to defend themselves against you. Even worse you might suddenly discover that you do not have what it takes to kill someone who refuses to hand over their food. Or you find that everyone else is short of supplies.

Much better is to buy heaps of stock and then buy some real currency. After WW2 in Germany this was cigarettes. Today it is likely to be chocolate. Anything worth a lot per unit weight and volume and can be used by most people.

Quote:

Originally Posted by marting (Post 13006673)
Just stopped at the grocers here in San Diego. No shortages. Lines were normal and people were buying the usual stuff. Should be interesting in another few weeks.

In Australia the supermarket was a bit busy today. No shortages yet. I guess a few people are voting with their feet to agree with me. BUY! BUY! BUY! (but no panic). Or it could be my imagination.

chrispy 1st March 2020 06:49 PM

So, talk in my country about closing access to people who have visited a country with identified Coronavirus cases. Because of our border and obvious population overlap with Mexico this is causing concern. I know we have a few posters in MExico... can anyone there tell me if they are hearing similar rhetoric or news?

The Atheist 1st March 2020 06:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjh01 (Post 13006700)
In Australia the supermarket was a bit busy today.

NZ's making up for lost time.

I went to the supermarket just now to buy some fruit & veg and every person in there was stocking up hugely.

On toilet paper and bottled water, going by the empty shelves and people at checkout, every one of whom was pulling one or two trolleys loaded past the gunwales with toilet rolls and/or bottled water. In a city where the water is 100% drinkable 100% of the time.

a_unique_person 1st March 2020 06:57 PM

Iran has a fatality rate of 7% according to this.

'Unseen and undetected': How Iran became the epicentre for coronavirus in the Middle East
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-0...break/12014792

I am guessing this will be replicated in countries without the social organisation of western countries or China, or perhaps there is a more virulent strain in Iran.


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