International Skeptics Forum

International Skeptics Forum (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/forumindex.php)
-   Science, Mathematics, Medicine, and Technology (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=5)
-   -   Merged: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=341650)

rjh01 28th January 2020 11:15 PM

The list below gives a list of disinformation. It does not give references. Though they often just need to say the original information is unsourced.

Here's A Running List Of Disinformation Spreading About The Coronavirus

Skeptic Ginger 28th January 2020 11:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjh01 (Post 12970282)
The list below gives a list of disinformation. It does not give references. Though they often just need to say the original information is unsourced.

Here's A Running List Of Disinformation Spreading About The Coronavirus

Wow! The sheer number and variety of fake stories circulating is quite telling about how extensive the phenomena is.

Roboramma 28th January 2020 11:59 PM

That list doesn't even go into the conspiracy theories going around in China. For instance that it is an american made bioweapon that only affects asian people.

Skeptic Ginger 29th January 2020 12:02 AM

My heart goes out to you, Robo.

The Atheist 29th January 2020 01:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12969755)
There is no evidence it is that high. You continue to pull that denominator out of the nether regions.

Holy crap, you just keep doing it. You've been completely dishonest from the first page of this thread.

Here's one easy one you might like to think about:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12969755)
Influenza is thousands of time more deadly and more easily spread.[then coronavirus]

Wrong and wronger.

I, on the other hand, have been exclusively using information from Imperial College in London which is, alongside CDC, the world's leading authority on viruses and epidemics. Not my nether regions.

I've given links to the information.

I believe I already commented somewhere in the thread that when it comes to facts, I'll take the word of organisations like ICL over "some woman on the internet".
________________________________

Meanwhile, some more actual data:

One week ago, there were 100 confirmed infections and 3 deaths.

As of today, there are 6000 confirmed cases and 132 deaths. The death rate seems by far highest for males aged over 50. In that age group, the mortality rate may even exceed SARS.

I see talk already of numbers peaking. Bit early, I'd have said.

My kid's school is excluding children whose families have travelled to China over the holidays, for at least the first two weeks. Seems to be a national policy.

lauwersw 29th January 2020 02:43 AM

My Chinese colleagues based in Chengdu have informed us that the government has extended the holiday period with one week to help prevent the spread of the virus. They should be back at work the first week of February. A pretty drastic measure, even if I'm not sure whether it applies to just parts of China or the whole country.

rjh01 29th January 2020 03:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 12970335)
<snip>

Meanwhile, some more actual data:

One week ago, there were 100 confirmed infections and 3 deaths.

As of today, there are 6000 confirmed cases and 132 deaths. The death rate seems by far highest for males aged over 50. In that age group, the mortality rate may even exceed SARS.

I see talk already of numbers peaking. Bit early, I'd have said.
<snip>

Is that because there are more cases or because there is better reporting of the cases? It had better be the second, because if it is the first humans are in big trouble. The number of cases is growing by 60 each week. Next week there will be 360,000 cases and the week after 21,600,000 cases. The only good news is that eventually everyone would have contacted the disease and so it would stop spreading.

So your numbers cannot be right. It cannot be spreading that fast.

Dr.Sid 29th January 2020 04:17 AM

The exponential factor is about 1.5 per day, that is 17 per week. 60 is distorted by lower numbers and delays in reporting. With bigger numbers the estimate would be more precise.

Here I found very nice graph in local news which uses logarithmic scale. No sign of peaking. You can also see the growth rate is pretty stable.

https://public.flourish.studio/visua...sation/1292813

Still at this rate the whole world population would get infected in 34 days. Of course it will peak before that. It wont thrive in different climate, and even in affected areas, some percentage of people will never get infected. So it will never be 7 billion. It can be millions though.

Skeptic Ginger 29th January 2020 06:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 12970335)
Holy crap, you just keep doing it. You've been completely dishonest from the first page of this thread. ...

My kid's school is excluding children whose families have travelled to China over the holidays, for at least the first two weeks. Seems to be a national policy.

Disagreeing with you does not make people dishonest.

Excluding kids whose families have traveled to China is an absurd overreaction.

Dr.Sid 29th January 2020 07:33 AM

It's Chinese government plot to remove elderly from society. Soon other governments will realize too, and the travel restrictions will be removed :boxedin:

Arcade22 29th January 2020 09:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjh01 (Post 12970282)
The list below gives a list of disinformation. It does not give references. Though they often just need to say the original information is unsourced.

Here's A Running List Of Disinformation Spreading About The Coronavirus

Quote:

19. Vitamin C will not cure or prevent a coronavirus infection, as posts and videos on Facebook falsely claim.
But will having sex with a virgin cure you, like it does with HIV?

bruto 29th January 2020 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Armitage72 (Post 12963940)
The company I work for makes cleaning products, including hard surface disinfectants. Our sales reps in the US and Canada are already getting asked about products effective against this. I've been asked to put together a letter for them detailing which of our products are effective against coronaviruses. Fortunately, the answer is "nearly all of them."
The CDC website just says "Use a diluted bleach solution or a household disinfectant with a label that says “EPA-approved.”" to treat surfaces. That obviously won't help with direct person-to-person transmission, of course.

I read something just recently that apparently some are recommending that people drink bleach.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/qanon-...-lethal-bleach

The Atheist 29th January 2020 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjh01 (Post 12970388)
Is that because there are more cases or because there is better reporting of the cases? It had better be the second, because if it is the first humans are in big trouble. The number of cases is growing by 60 each week. Next week there will be 360,000 cases and the week after 21,600,000 cases. The only good news is that eventually everyone would have contacted the disease and so it would stop spreading.

So your numbers cannot be right. It cannot be spreading that fast.

Well, it clearly is spreading that fast, because the numbers will be well under-stated, mainly due to the lag in being infected and being tested.

You also need to remember that many people with it won't be tested because they won't be sick enough to go to the doctor. That's why ICL is using a factor of 100 in estimating the numbers with the disease.

The human species isn't in trouble as a result of the virus, it's just not that deadly, except maybe for old blokes. None of them around here, are there?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arcade22 (Post 12970712)
But will having sex with a virgin cure you, like it does with HIV?

Worth a try!

Venom 29th January 2020 11:38 AM

This is some feeble "population control".

Unless it's a test run for a bigger operation in the future....yeah, that's the ticket.

Trebuchet 29th January 2020 11:39 AM

A tweet from Ken "Popehat" White:
Quote:

Middle child's school just sent an email about the Coronavirus that said, in very polite school administrator terms, WILL YOU PACK OF GULLIBLE GIBBERING MORONS STOP WETTING YOURSELVES OVER EVERY IMBECILE RUMOR YOU RUN ACROSS ON THE PORN SITES YOU FREQUENT

marting 29th January 2020 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trebuchet (Post 12970844)
A tweet from Ken "Popehat" White:

I love that site. Lot's of good, irreverent lawyer/judge stuff too from a defense atty. that used to be a USA DA.

Skeptic Ginger 29th January 2020 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trebuchet (Post 12970844)
A tweet from Ken "Popehat" White:

:sdl:

Armitage72 29th January 2020 12:32 PM

The CDC has updated their guidance on the use of disinfectants on surfaces now that the EPA has announced that the virus meets the requirements for their Emerging Viral Pathogen policy. This allows disinfectant manufacturers to obtain permission to make limited claims against the specific virus under very specific conditions, e.g. not on their labels or in general advertising.

Quote:

Routine cleaning and disinfection procedures (e.g., using cleaners and water to pre-clean surfaces prior to applying an EPA-registered, hospital-grade disinfectant to frequently touched surfaces or objects for appropriate contact times as indicated on the product’s label) are appropriate for 2019-nCoV in healthcare settings, including those patient-care areas in which aerosol-generating procedures are performed. Products with EPA-approved emerging viral pathogens claims are recommended for use against 2019-nCoV. These products can be identified by the following claim:

--“[Product name] has demonstrated effectiveness against viruses similar to 2019-nCoV on hard non-porous surfaces. Therefore, this product can be used against 2019-nCoV when used in accordance with the directions for use against [name of supporting virus] on hard, non-porous surfaces.”

--This claim or a similar claim, will be made only through the following communications outlets: technical literature distributed exclusively to health care facilities, physicians, nurses and public health officials, “1-800” consumer information services, social media sites and company websites (non-label related). Specific claims for “2019-nCoV” will not appear on the product or master label.

--Additional information about EPA-approved emerging viral pathogens claims can be found here: https://www.epa.gov/pesticide-regist...hogensexternal

--If there are no available EPA-registered products that have an approved emerging viral pathogen claim for 2019-nCoV, products with label claims against human coronaviruses should be used according to label instructions.

We license two formulas from a company that has received approval for emerging pathogen claims. They require following the directions for killing Adenovirus 7, which is 4 times the concentration used for other viruses. Since both products are already approved to kill human coronavirus at the lower concentration, the use rate is basically "nuke it from orbit; it's the only way to be sure."

The Atheist 29th January 2020 12:50 PM

Further confirmation that kids aren't being bothered by the virus, but are carrying & shedding it: https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/1...ead-undetected

I'd say we have a guaranteed pandemic on our hands.

Armitage72 29th January 2020 01:12 PM

I don't know if this is a better fit here or in Politics, but right-wing AM radio raving lunatic Michael Savage has suggested that his listeners mail infected material to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Skeptic Ginger 29th January 2020 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 12970956)
Further confirmation that kids aren't being bothered by the virus, but are carrying & shedding it: https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/1...ead-undetected

I'd say we have a guaranteed pandemic on our hands.

Do you suggest we all hide under our beds?

For the record, some of my past comments:
Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12965650)
It should cause people to think how futile such isolation will be.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12965638)
I said, "a really nasty cold no one has immunity to spreading around the world."

...This new virus strain is going to spread around the world. There's a certain point where it is too late to put the genie back in the bottle and this has passed that point. It will be severe in some populations, especially the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions.

... It was suggested that if a novel fu outbreak wasn't stopped in the first few weeks, we would not be able to stop it. The reason and why that differed from SARS was, with flu one has millions of mild cases that go under the radar.

... This is a bad pathogen. No one has immunity. It is going to spread around the world like a wildfire. The fatality rate will not be in the millions, maybe 10s of thousands worldwide, but not millions. It will be high among older people and people with preexisting conditions. ...

There is nothing to panic about. And it is going to spread.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12961729)
There's nothing wrong with being alarmed. It's a novel coronavirus and that means the population likely has no immunity against the virus. It's very likely to spread through populations like the Aussie bushfires. And we probably will fail at stopping it for the very reason were were successful stopping SARS. There will be mild cases and they will slip through the cracks....

Most third world countries have little to no public infrastructure. They won't be able to stop it.

The one good thing about this virus so far is the fatality rate is very low. ....

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12957849)
... So far this needs cautious observation. There are lots of pneumonia cases, but the fatality rate is very low.....


Skeptic Ginger 29th January 2020 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Armitage72 (Post 12970981)
I don't know if this is a better fit here or in Politics, but right-wing AM radio raving lunatic Michael Savage has suggested that his listeners mail infected material to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Threatening a Rep is against the law. Bet he has to retract it.

ceptimus 29th January 2020 02:08 PM

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EPaW8GuX...g&name=360x360
http://en.nhc.gov.cn/news.html

It will be interesting to see if the exponential trend continues over the coming days.

I'm still waiting for the first confirmed cases in India or Africa - once those get to be more than a handful we can give up on the idea of containment.

dudalb 29th January 2020 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Armitage72 (Post 12970981)
I don't know if this is a better fit here or in Politics, but right-wing AM radio raving lunatic Michael Savage has suggested that his listeners mail infected material to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

How long until Savage plays the "Just Joking" card?

dudalb 29th January 2020 05:30 PM

The 2011 movie "Contagion"..about a killer virus in the US that originates in China...is having resurge in popularity because of the coronavirus outbreak.
Really good movie that deserved more success then it got in 2011.though scary as hell to watch. The New CHannels having updating numbers for Millions who died is particularly scary.

The Atheist 29th January 2020 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12971044)
Do you suggest we all hide under our beds?

No, but I'd advise any older people with pre-existing heart, lung or kidney issues to avoid it like the plague.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ceptimus (Post 12971082)
It will be interesting to see if the exponential trend continues over the coming days.

I'm still waiting for the first confirmed cases in India or Africa - once those get to be more than a handful we can give up on the idea of containment.

We should be giving up on it already - it's out, it's spreading, and by the end of next week, there will be millions of infections.

If you want something to worry about, think about mutations in the virus. Coronaviruses mutate every now and then, and with googols of individual viruses infecting millions of members of a brand new species, the chances of mutation grow higher and higher.

Skeptic Ginger 29th January 2020 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 12971314)
No, but I'd advise any older people with pre-existing heart, lung or kidney issues to avoid it like the plague. ...

By taking what actions specifically?

dudalb 29th January 2020 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 12971314)
No, but I'd advise any older people with pre-existing heart, lung or kidney issues to avoid it like the plague.



We should be giving up on it already - it's out, it's spreading, and by the end of next week, there will be millions of infections.

If you want something to worry about, think about mutations in the virus. Coronaviruses mutate every now and then, and with googols of individual viruses infecting millions of members of a brand new species, the chances of mutation grow higher and higher.


I don't deny what you say has a high probability of happening, bu tthat you say it with such obvious relish concerns me...

dudalb 29th January 2020 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12971328)
By taking what actions specifically?

I think the idea if for them to die, and decrease the surplus population....

Venom 29th January 2020 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12971329)
I don't deny what you say has a high probability of happening, bu tthat you say it with such obvious relish concerns me...

:o

I tend to read The Atheist's posts that way.

dudalb 29th January 2020 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Venom (Post 12971373)
:o

I tend to read The Atheist's posts that way.

He REALLY overdoes the "Cynical Misanthrope" bit.

dudalb 29th January 2020 06:35 PM

The Mayor of Wuhan has admitted he screwed up in the early stages of the outbreak.
His future is probably not bright.
As a sign of how serous this is getting, the Chinese government has ordered all theaters closed until further notice.

Craig4 29th January 2020 06:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Armitage72 (Post 12970981)
I don't know if this is a better fit here or in Politics, but right-wing AM radio raving lunatic Michael Savage has suggested that his listeners mail infected material to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

What a dick move. I know he's filthy Trumptrash but Savage must still have enough brain cells to rub together to know that AOC and her staff would never encounter their infected mail. Being he's a Trump voter/supporter stupid and dishonest are assumed. However, even the minimal, reptilian intelligence it takes to be a Trump voter must inform ******** that it's some poor schmuck in the Congressional mail room who will encounter the "infected" mail.

Trump voters/supporters, they are scum and certainly not real Americans. Savage is more proof that you don't have to treat a Trump supporter/voter as if he or she is good enough for basic, human dignity. They just aren't Americans.

Skeptic Ginger 29th January 2020 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12971379)
The Mayor of Wuhan has admitted he screwed up in the early stages of the outbreak.
His future is probably not bright.
As a sign of how serous this is getting, the Chinese government has ordered all theaters closed until further notice.

Interesting this has echoes of the SARS pandemic. I may have mentioned it upthread.

The local governments are the ones that hide things, to save face, to not be blamed. The national government has a tendency to act more reasonably.

When SARS was in the middle of the worst of things, the Shanghai government falsely claimed there were no cases there. I wonder of Roborama remembers that.

Roboramma 29th January 2020 09:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12971436)
When SARS was in the middle of the worst of things, the Shanghai government falsely claimed there were no cases there. I wonder of Roborama remembers that.

I had actually been living in Hong Kong but just left when SARS happened. I think I was in India at the time. My memories of it are all memories of the stories of friends living in Hong Kong at the time. I moved back to Hong Kong in 2004 and then to Shanghai in 2005.

I'm a little concerned about the economic repercussions over here. My own business, for instance, is closed until further notice at the moment (tentative opening date according the government is Feb 10, but I really doubt that that won't change). A friend of mine is in a similar situation. Another friend of mine spent the last year working on his new denim brand which was supposed to launch after Chinese New Year, but I think he's going to have some trouble now. Another friend of mine has had all his work cancelled until June, which he's worrying about a lot since he didn't have much savings. Restaurants, malls, and the streets in general are pretty empty, and the only places that seem to be busy are the supermarkets because people are stocking up on food.

Things are usually relatively quiet over Chinese New Year, though, so we'll see what things look like when people start getting back, and to what extent there's a return to normalcy when people get back to work.

Arcade22 29th January 2020 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by arthwollipot (Post 12970140)
No, it's effective, just not for the reasons most people think.

Viruses themselves will pass straight through a surgical mask, it is true. They're too small for it to be a direct barrier. But in most cases you're not getting infected because you inhaled the virus. You're getting infected because you've touched an infected surface, then touched your mouth or nose before washing your hands. By acting as a barrier to your mouth and nose, it can effectively prevent infections. A surgical mask is also generally sufficient to block liquid droplets from coughing or sneezing, which are also a vector.

The fact that they are not using single-use sanitary gloves is by itself clear evidence that they are not going to be protected from anything. As soon as they remove their masks with their nasty contaminated fingers they have pretty much undone the protective effect of these face masks.

arthwollipot 29th January 2020 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arcade22 (Post 12971528)
The fact that they are not using single-use sanitary gloves is by itself clear evidence that they are not going to be protected from anything. As soon as they remove their masks with their nasty contaminated fingers they have pretty much undone the protective effect of these face masks.

Yes, if they're serious about it they'll wash their hands before taking the mask off. But I doubt most people think that far.

rjh01 29th January 2020 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arcade22 (Post 12971528)
The fact that they are not using single-use sanitary gloves is by itself clear evidence that they are not going to be protected from anything. As soon as they remove their masks with their nasty contaminated fingers they have pretty much undone the protective effect of these face masks.

Quote:

Originally Posted by arthwollipot (Post 12971533)
Yes, if they're serious about it they'll wash their hands before taking the mask off. But I doubt most people think that far.

So we agree, most people wearing masks will receive no additional protection from the virus.

From reading this thread it appears that healthy people are highly unlikely to get seriously ill from this. But anyone who has health issues need to take precautions. Like using a mask correctly, washing hands frequently (and correctly) and staying home more.

The Atheist 29th January 2020 11:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12971329)
I don't deny what you say has a high probability of happening, bu tthat you say it with such obvious relish concerns me...

Way to read something that is absolutely not there. Read the words again and explain where you see relish, because all I wrote and see is English.

Your comprehension skills are woeful.

The Atheist 29th January 2020 11:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12971328)
By taking what actions specifically?

Stay away from people with it, wash hands, be sensible, & see your doctor if you have a fever.


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 09:45 AM.

Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
© 2015-19, TribeTech AB. All Rights Reserved.