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-   -   Merged: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=341650)

The Atheist 5th March 2020 01:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng (Post 13010520)
There may be a good number of undiagnosed deaths, too. Old person dies of respiratory problems? Nothing unusual about that. They ought to test every death that looks even vaguely suspicious, but they don't AFAIK.

I think you'll find a few places are doing that retrospectively right now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Planigale (Post 13010527)
"Evidence from China is that only 1% of reported cases do not have symptoms, and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days."

What a pointless comment by WHO.

Unreported cases will clearly be asymptomatic, or nearly so, and they're not counted, because they're....

Unreported!

Quote:

Originally Posted by dann (Post 13010548)
Most Scandinavian cases so far have been traced back to Italy where many people go skiing in February.

Italy's the super spreader!

When you take into account the Brit who infected people at the ski resort in France, there were clearly people picking it up in Italy, but the cases went unrecognised because the symptoms weren't severe.

Once it got out of the resorts - and young & fit skiers - and into the general population, it started knocking over the oldies and got discovered, is how it seems to have gone down.

Red Baron Farms 5th March 2020 02:00 AM

According to the News (which actually is not very reliable), the first case in Oklahoma was found yesterday.

a_unique_person 5th March 2020 02:12 AM

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/f...47az.html?btis

Cruise ship parked off California with suspected infections. Cruise started in Hawaii.

GraculusTheGreenBird 5th March 2020 02:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13010551)
I think you'll find a few places are doing that retrospectively right now.

What a pointless comment by WHO.

Unreported cases will clearly be asymptomatic, or nearly so, and they're not counted, because they're....

Unreported!

That's not how I read it, but I'll admit its badly worded.

It seems to be saying the vast majority of cases that eventually test positive show symptoms early, and the window under which those cases are asymptomatic is pretty small, not weeks but 2 days.

Bear in mind also that there are thousands of cases across many regions that are suspected even though they don't show symptoms, due to quarantine, close contact with someone infected etc. and hence closely monitored and tested on a daily basis. Thus there is likely some justification for that as a conclusion.

And more importantly, contrary to what we thought, asymptomatic cases are not major drivers of transmission. I for one thought those types were blithely swanning about for weeks on end, passing it to all and sundry, yet apparently this is not the case.

That seems to be new information.

Edited: They don't spell out whether these cases are not major drivers overall because they are asymptomatic for a relatively short period of time compared to those showing symptoms, or because there is some difference in the level of contagion, e.g. asymptomatics aren't sneezing over people.

Captain_Swoop 5th March 2020 03:06 AM

California declares emergency after death

Quote:

California has declared a state of emergency after announcing its first coronavirus death, bringing the US death toll from the disease to 11.

The 71-year-old man, who died in a hospital near Sacramento, had underlying health conditions and had been on a cruise ship, said officials.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51740706

KAJ 5th March 2020 03:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 13010267)

Huh :confused:
I wasn't disagreeing with you, just citing a source (WHO), different to the three in your list, the second of which I cited in post #2320.

Fast Eddie B 5th March 2020 05:58 AM

This was just pushed to my newsfeed from The Telegraph:

ďCoronavirus has mutated into more aggressive disease, say scientistsĒ

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/...ay-scientists/

Belz... 5th March 2020 06:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B (Post 13010668)
This was just pushed to my newsfeed from The Telegraph:

ďCoronavirus has mutated into more aggressive disease, say scientistsĒ

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/...ay-scientists/

Yeah but apparently it's losing ground to the older, less dangerous form, from what I understand.

alfaniner 5th March 2020 07:03 AM

One residual problem I can foresee -- in the rush to allow people to work from home, a lot of security steps are going to be missed or skipped, making companies much more vulnerable to hacking.

RecoveringYuppy 5th March 2020 07:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xjx389
Iím just trying to think it through.

And you have absolutely no evidence for anything you say after this. I think I'll stick with the opinion of the experts working from evidence.

Capsid 5th March 2020 07:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Belz... (Post 13010676)
Yeah but apparently it's losing ground to the older, less dangerous form, from what I understand.



The paper provides no evidence for more aggressive disease.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Cheetah 5th March 2020 07:39 AM

Got our first one.


First case of coronavirus detected in SA
Quote:


ďThe patient is a 38-year-old male who travelled to Italy with his wife. They were part of a group of 10 people and they arrived back in SA on March 1.
ďThe patient consulted a private general practitioner on March 3, with symptoms of fever, headache, malaise, a sore throat and a cough. The practice nurse took swabs and delivered it to the lab,Ē he said.


xjx388 5th March 2020 07:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy (Post 13010721)
And you have absolutely no evidence for anything you say after this. I think I'll stick with the opinion of the experts working from evidence.



Well, duh; of course you should do that. Iím not presenting my thinking as scientific fact. Iím basing my reasoning on the facts as we know them currently.

If I am anywhere close to correct, then the number of actual infections is going to be way higher than reported -all those milder cases that people think is just a bad cold. All those people coughing and sneezing in my office this week -we are busier than we have been in a long time. Since we havenít seen the symptoms that would make our docs suspect anything weird, we arenít sending anyone for testing. Itís just, from our standpoint, a bad URI season. So I think itís very possible that itís actually already out there in the wider community and thatís why this season is so bad. When testing is more accessible to clinics like us, Iíll bet this is confirmed.

Thatís all Iím saying and maybe Iím wrong. But if Iím close to right, perhaps we should be concerned for vulnerable populations but we donít need to panic. What we need to do is be extremely diligent about the basic precautions.

quadraginta 5th March 2020 08:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey (Post 13009411)
Wonder if there is a path to civil or criminal liability here? This is an unusual case in that there is a lot of work being done to track the spread of the disease. It may be possible to identify reckless actors with a pretty high level of certainty, especially in these early days where the number of cases is low.

I am assuming that this would be a firing offense for any kind of medical organization.


Here's an interesting example.

Quote:

Federal health officials planned to drop off some cruise ship passengers at a shopping mall after their release from a two-week quarantine at a Texas air base, one of several reasons the city of San Antonio declared a public health emergency over the new coronavirus, a city spokeswoman said Tuesday.

The city filed a lawsuit Monday to halt the plan after a woman was mistakenly released from quarantine at a health care facility over the weekend despite testing positive. She had visited the North Star Mall — the same one where the some of those released from Lackland Air Force Base were to be dropped off — before the mistake was discovered, prompting the mall to shut down for deep cleaning.
Two different things, but in combination they don't bode well for the sort of precautions we can expect from our government.

One- They have mistakenly released people who were still infected and, presumably, contagious.

Two- They think dumping the ones they release at malls is a good idea.

Darat 5th March 2020 08:29 AM

UK Gov:

Quote:


Department of Health and Social Care

@DHSCgovuk
Replying to @DHSCgovuk

As of today, due to the number of new cases, we will no longer be tweeting information on the location of each new case.

Instead, this information will be released centrally in a consolidated format online, once a week. We are working on this now and plan to share on Friday.

quadraginta 5th March 2020 08:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by portlandatheist (Post 13010401)
Here's a great resource, made by a highschool student from Mercer Island (near Seattle)
story:
https://www.geekwire.com/2020/high-s...s-information/
actual website:
https://ncov2019.live/data


Thanks. Bookmarked.

That is really a very good site. Much more comprehensive and well laid out than any of the purportedly 'official' sites I've seen so far.

Obviously our Powers-That-Be need to hire more seventeen year olds.

Here's a direct link to the interactive map which is being built by the same site.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer...3166209415&z=7

It seems to stay updated pretty quickly.

Mod InfoThread is running slow - continuation thread can be found here: http://www.internationalskeptics.com...d.php?t=342493
Posted By:Darat


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