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-   -   Merged: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=341650)

Skeptic Ginger 30th January 2020 12:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 12971610)
Stay away from people with it, wash hands, be sensible, & see your doctor if you have a fever.

How does that differ from what people should do anyway?

(Seeing a doc for a fever depending on other factors.)

The Atheist 30th January 2020 01:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12971627)
How does that differ from what people should do anyway?

It doesn't, but most people don't even wash their hands properly: https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucele.../#4d3996b32481

ceptimus 30th January 2020 04:47 AM

Useful interactive map with regular updates here: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

Dr.Sid 30th January 2020 08:03 AM

We're looking at 10k tomorrow. This is so much easier to predict then BTC :boggled:

catsmate 30th January 2020 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Baron Farms (Post 12968012)
Latest is a supposed viral video I did not see myself but that the New York Post reported on....

Raise the red flag, the one without the stars.

catsmate 30th January 2020 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid (Post 12969475)
Source ?

Several studies available publicly, like this one or this one.
Quote:

Originally Posted by BMJ
Health economic analyses of facemasks are scarce and the few published cost effectiveness models do not use clinical efficacy data. The lack of research on facemasks and respirators is reflected in varied and sometimes conflicting policies and guidelines. Further research should focus on examining the efficacy of facemasks against specific infectious threats such as influenza and tuberculosis, assessing the efficacy of cloth masks, investigating common practices such as reuse of masks, assessing compliance, filling in policy gaps, and obtaining cost effectiveness data using clinical efficacy estimates.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. David Carrington
routine surgical masks for the public are not an effective protection against viruses or bacteria carried in the air.

Basic hygiene measures, e.g. covering your mouth while sneezing and washing hands are more useful.

There's an NPR piece here.

catsmate 30th January 2020 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis (Post 12969531)
Why bother? Apparently its harmless. :rolleyes:

There is a universe of gradations between harmless and "oh no the sky is falling".

catsmate 30th January 2020 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 12969545)
Well, it's clearly not harmless - except for kids, which is nice.

It has a fatality rate, as do lots of otherwise non-fatal diseases, like influenza & the common cold. It appears to be killing people with underlying diseases, just as those two do.

The mortality rate for 2019-nCoV* is starting to look somewhere between H1N1 and seasonal influenza.

I'm sticking with 3,000,000 deaths worldwide as the likely harvest.

*needs a better name.

In a word, bollocks.

catsmate 30th January 2020 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjh01 (Post 12970282)
The list below gives a list of disinformation. It does not give references. Though they often just need to say the original information is unsourced.

Here's A Running List Of Disinformation Spreading About The Coronavirus

Gee, how many of them have been mentioned in this thread.

catsmate 30th January 2020 09:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trebuchet (Post 12970844)
A tweet from Ken "Popehat" White:
Quote:

Middle child's school just sent an email about the Coronavirus that said, in very polite school administrator terms, WILL YOU PACK OF GULLIBLE GIBBERING MORONS STOP WETTING YOURSELVES OVER EVERY IMBECILE RUMOR YOU RUN ACROSS ON THE PORN SITES YOU FREQUENT

Give that school administrator a medal. And ask them to be a moderator on this forum...

catsmate 30th January 2020 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 12970956)
I'd say we have a guaranteed pandemic on our hands.

That comment says far more about you, and your need to believe in a lethal pandemic, than the virus in question.
:rolleyes:

catsmate 30th January 2020 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12971379)
The Mayor of Wuhan has admitted he screwed up in the early stages of the outbreak.
His future is probably not bright.
As a sign of how serous this is getting, the Chinese government has ordered all theaters closed until further notice.

I assume that also means cinemas? Closing the theatres was general practice in Ye Olde Day to prevent plague spreading.

catsmate 30th January 2020 09:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12971436)
Interesting this has echoes of the SARS pandemic. I may have mentioned it upthread.

The local governments are the ones that hide things, to save face, to not be blamed. The national government has a tendency to act more reasonably.

When SARS was in the middle of the worst of things, the Shanghai government falsely claimed there were no cases there. I wonder of Roborama remembers that.

This.
Though there's also the abject misunderstanding of what R0 actually means displayed by many people.

Dr.Sid 30th January 2020 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by catsmate (Post 12971928)
Several studies available publicly, like this one or this one.

Basic hygiene measures, e.g. covering your mouth while sneezing and washing hands are more useful.

There's an NPR piece here.

All that is about if the mask will protect the wearer. That's (imho) obvious. If anything, you don't have your eyes covered.
Surgical masks are designed so wearer of the mask does not infect other people. That's why surgeons wear them, not the patient.
But what about situation, where everyone is wearing mask ? In other words, every possibly infected person ? Which is actually situation in Wu-han now. That must have positive effect, as long as the virus is spread by droplets.

William Parcher 30th January 2020 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid (Post 12971876)
We're looking at 10k tomorrow. This is so much easier to predict then BTC :boggled:

When does this go exponential?

I saw 6,000 then up to 7,000 and now 10,000? If this was going exponential then we should now be in the millions.

I mention this because there was talk of exponential spread upthread.

Dr.Sid 30th January 2020 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 12971958)
When does this go exponential?

I saw 6,000 then up to 7,000 and now 10,000? If this was going exponential then we should now be in the millions.

I mention this because there was talk of exponential spread upthread.

It's going exponential since it's global news. 3 weeks at least. Still around 1.5 factor per day. Last 3 days more like 1.4. But the growth is surprisingly stable.

Check actual numbers here (about 5th mention, but people clearly don't read more than 3 posts back):
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

See good visualization of exponential nature here, on graph using logarithmic scale (the most actual data are not included though):
https://public.flourish.studio/visua...sation/1292813

Abooga 30th January 2020 09:37 AM

Something I donīt understand is, according to the John Hopkins data, 170 deaths and 133 recoveries. Does that mean that right now if you have simptoms bad enough to have you hospitalized you are more likely to die than not?

Steve 30th January 2020 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abooga (Post 12971980)
Something I donīt understand is, according to the John Hopkins data, 170 deaths and 133 recoveries. Does that mean that right now if you have simptoms bad enough to have you hospitalized you are more likely to die than not?

I think recovered means that a person was diagnosed, treated, and no longer has the virus in their body. The balance of diagnoses are still infected and in treatment.

Arcade22 30th January 2020 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid (Post 12971957)
All that is about if the mask will protect the wearer. That's (imho) obvious. If anything, you don't have your eyes covered.
Surgical masks are designed so wearer of the mask does not infect other people. That's why surgeons wear them, not the patient.
But what about situation, where everyone is wearing mask ? In other words, every possibly infected person ? Which is actually situation in Wu-han now. That must have positive effect, as long as the virus is spread by droplets.

Doctors and surgeons wear a different kind of mask that has far smaller pores than the ones typically available to the public. They are a small enough to keep virus from passing through, but a consequence of that is that they are hard to breath in. Not something that you want to wear while out a d about on the streets, as with gas masks.

Giordano 30th January 2020 09:58 AM

I think that the high failure rates associated with masks are the result of people wearing them improperly. All the air one breathes in and out has to go through the mask for maximum protection. Duh. If you look at most people wearing the typical disposable masks (especially the flat kinds that wrap around one's face) there are large gaps at the sides around the nose and chin. Probably over 50% of the air they are breathing in or out is not being filtered. These simple masks can be fitted more effectively but it is difficult to adjust the fit and keep it adjusted correctly. The slightly fancier disposables, which come molded in a shape that better fits the nose, still have to be snugged down carefully to close a gap that typically forms between the nose and eyes.

There are much better that generate a tight fit and are far more effective. But these are much more expensive.

In general people also find masks uncomfortable and sweaty, particularly when fitted correctly, so they don't wear them all the times they should. And as discussed upthread, wearing a mask but not washing your hands is just silly.

Steve 30th January 2020 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Giordano (Post 12972004)
I think that the high failure rates associated with masks are the result of people wearing them improperly. All the air one breathes in and out has to go through the mask for maximum protection. Duh. If you look at most people wearing the typical disposable masks (especially the flat kinds that wrap around one's face) there are large gaps at the sides around the nose and chin. Probably over 50% of the air they are breathing in or out is not being filtered. These simple masks can be fitted more effectively but it is difficult to adjust the fit and keep it adjusted correctly. The slightly fancier disposables, which come molded in a shape that better fits the nose, still have to be snugged down carefully to close a gap that typically forms between the nose and eyes.

There are much better that generate a tight fit and are far more effective. But these are much more expensive.

In general people also find masks uncomfortable and sweaty, particularly when fitted correctly, so they don't wear them all the times they should. And as discussed upthread, wearing a mask but not washing your hands is just silly.

Masks are completely useless for us bearded guys.

carlosy 30th January 2020 10:12 AM

Asian males more receptive for 2019-nCoV ?

Quote:

A novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December of 2019. This new coronavirus has resulted in thousands of cases of lethal disease in China, with additional patients being identified in a rapidly growing number internationally. 2019-nCov was reported to share the same receptor, Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), with SARS-Cov. Here based on the public database and the state-of-the-art single-cell RNA-Seq technique, we analyzed the ACE2 RNA expression profile in the normal human lungs. The result indicates that the ACE2 virus receptor expression is concentrated in a small population of type II alveolar cells (AT2). Surprisingly, we found that this population of ACE2-expressing AT2 also highly expressed many other genes that positively regulating viral reproduction and transmission. A comparison between eight individual samples demonstrated that the Asian male one has an extremely large number of ACE2-expressing cells in the lung.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...01.26.919985v1

:confused:

dudalb 30th January 2020 11:59 AM

ANd what is scary is that you have to wonder if the Chinese Government is low balling the figures. They know better then to out and out try to hide that it's a serous situation, but I would not put trying to downplay how serious it is. Authorarain regimes have a habit of doing that.

dudalb 30th January 2020 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Giordano (Post 12972004)
I think that the high failure rates associated with masks are the result of people wearing them improperly. All the air one breathes in and out has to go through the mask for maximum protection. Duh. If you look at most people wearing the typical disposable masks (especially the flat kinds that wrap around one's face) there are large gaps at the sides around the nose and chin. Probably over 50% of the air they are breathing in or out is not being filtered. These simple masks can be fitted more effectively but it is difficult to adjust the fit and keep it adjusted correctly. The slightly fancier disposables, which come molded in a shape that better fits the nose, still have to be snugged down carefully to close a gap that typically forms between the nose and eyes.

There are much better that generate a tight fit and are far more effective. But these are much more expensive.

In general people also find masks uncomfortable and sweaty, particularly when fitted correctly, so they don't wear them all the times they should. And as discussed upthread, wearing a mask but not washing your hands is just silly.

And I always suspected any thing short of a full scale gas mask type protection would be vulnerable to germs eventually getting through.
I think anybody who has gone through NBC protection training in the military would be a bit skeptical of how well face masks protect you.

Planigale 30th January 2020 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abooga (Post 12971980)
Something I donīt understand is, according to the John Hopkins data, 170 deaths and 133 recoveries. Does that mean that right now if you have simptoms bad enough to have you hospitalized you are more likely to die than not?

From a health service PoV this is not necessarily a good thing. Inevitable death is cheap, and low resource. If there is a good chance of recovery with intensive intervention then this is bad.

Viral pneumonias have a good chance of recovery given time and resources. But if you need ECMO this is very resource intensive, double the usual cost of ITU. (At which point I expect Skepticginger to weigh in since unlike me she probably knows what this really means.) Most people who die of viral pneumonias (generalisation not based on specific coronavirus data) die from secondary infections; lungs damaged from viruses are susceptible to infections from bacteria and fungi.

Giordano 30th January 2020 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12972165)
And I always suspected any thing short of a full scale gas mask type protection would be vulnerable to germs eventually getting through.
I think anybody who has gone through NBC protection training in the military would be a bit skeptical of how well face masks protect you.

Sure for very high levels of protection, although of course it has to be a mask with suitable HEPA (particle) filters rather than chemical (e.g. activated carbon) filters and fitted/worn as taught.

But even simpler masks worn correctly can probably reduce one's risk by 90% (if one washes one's hands too).

Skeptic Ginger 30th January 2020 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 12971660)
It doesn't, but most people don't even wash their hands properly: https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucele.../#4d3996b32481

You're just dancing around the question which was addressing your elevated concern.

Skeptic Ginger 30th January 2020 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by carlosy (Post 12972021)
Asian males more receptive for 2019-nCoV ?

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...01.26.919985v1

:confused:

That's interesting. There's a new count as of yesterday: 840 new cases of pneumonia have occurred.

http://www.hubei.gov.cn/zhuanti/2020..._2015924.shtml

My thought was to look at how many people in China are still smokers. It's very high.

With influenza, smoking puts you at higher risk of pneumonia. Smoking affects the cilia in the trachea. Influenza tends to infect cells in the middle airway (trachea). That's a double whammy on the defenses against bacteria getting into the lung.

I wonder how much smoking is going to be a factor for severe illness.

Pixel42 30th January 2020 12:48 PM

Coronavirus is declared global emergency by World Health Organization

William Parcher 30th January 2020 01:09 PM

Yesterday I read that bats are still a focus as being the potential source. Snakes were initially targeted and have not been removed as the possible source. It seems that the virus closely resembles (but not identical) ones already known from bats and snakes. I read that snakes are common at the Wuhan market but that bats are seasonal and none were for sale at the market when the outbreak was initially attributed to that market.

a_unique_person 30th January 2020 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pixel42 (Post 12972238)

Ok. Time to panic.

Darat 30th January 2020 02:05 PM

I'm working in Windsor at the moment and the largest group of tourists are the Chinese, the drop in the number of Chinese tourists is astonishing. When I was walking in front of the castle today I hardly saw a Chinese tourist and not a single tour group of Chinese.

Skeptic Ginger 30th January 2020 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by a_unique_person (Post 12972293)
Ok. Time to panic.

Should we hide under the bed now? :)


Speaking of avoiding the virus, when the 2009 flu variant was spreading, before the vaccine was available, I saw all the ways one could not avoid exposure. For example, try buying groceries if the clerk or the bagger are sniffing and coughing.

They both touch every one of your items. So do you wear gloves to put your food away? Leave the bags in the car for a sufficient amount of time for any surface contaminants to die?

But then what about the people you didn't see? At the produce area someone touches everything they put in the bins. Same with the meat in the meat area, someone touched each package of meat. And the plastic wrap in a refrigerated area is perfect for preserving surface contamination. At Whole Foods store employees are constantly spiffing up the shelves pulling all the products to the front.

So what do you do to avoid contaminated surfaces? It's one thing to wash your hands when you come in the house. But what if half the items in your kitchen are contaminated?


Try it: throughout the day see all the things that could have contaminated surfaces you cannot avoid touching.

Steve 30th January 2020 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by a_unique_person (Post 12972293)
Ok. Time to panic.

Later. I am busy now.

The Atheist 30th January 2020 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by catsmate (Post 12971932)
In a word, bollocks.

Well, let's give it a few months and see how we go. If I'm wrong, and I might well be, as the early indications are that close contact is needed, then I'll gladly admit that.

If, on the other hand, it more contagious and kills a few million around the world, I'll be looking for you to stand up and say you were sorry for being s dick.

I have no confidence that it would happen, though.

Quote:

Originally Posted by catsmate (Post 12971948)
That comment says far more about you, and your need to believe in a lethal pandemic, than the virus in question.
:rolleyes:

Jeez, there really are some of you people who seem to be wanting to display psychic skills, and like every psychic who ever lived, you have the exact same accuracy rating - nil.

Why would I have a need for a pandemic?

The opposite is in fact the case - I'd far prefer there were no pandemics of diseases that kill people and that places like China would wake up to the fact that animals when used for food need to be treated in ways that minimise the risk of zoonotic disease, not exacerbate them.

dudalb 30th January 2020 03:01 PM

Now a case reported in Chicago.
Fasten you seatbelts, this is going to be a bumpy ride.

dudalb 30th January 2020 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 12972261)
Yesterday I read that bats are still a focus as being the potential source. Snakes were initially targeted and have not been removed as the possible source. It seems that the virus closely resembles (but not identical) ones already known from bats and snakes. I read that snakes are common at the Wuhan market but that bats are seasonal and none were for sale at the market when the outbreak was initially attributed to that market.


God, that is straight out of "Contagion".....

The Atheist 30th January 2020 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by carlosy (Post 12972021)
Asian males more receptive for 2019-nCoV ?
:confused:

That is bloody interesting, thanks.

dudalb 30th January 2020 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by catsmate (Post 12971951)
I assume that also means cinemas? Closing the theatres was general practice in Ye Olde Day to prevent plague spreading.

Yeah, it applies to theaters of all types.
Not that it matters much, but theaters in common usage refers to any kind of theater, both stage and cinema.

dudalb 30th January 2020 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by catsmate (Post 12971948)
That comment says far more about you, and your need to believe in a lethal pandemic, than the virus in question.
:rolleyes:

Yeah, this.
It's not so much that I disagree with what the Atheist is saying...from what I have read this is the most serious threat of a pandemic we have seen in a while...but he seems to take such joy and pleasure in it.
But like I said, he has been overdoing the "Cynical Misanthrope" shitick for a long time.


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