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-   -   Merged: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=341650)

dudalb 30th January 2020 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12971627)
How does that differ from what people should do anyway?

(Seeing a doc for a fever depending on other factors.)

And how the hell do you know somebody has the virus unless you assume anybody who is an Asian has it.
As for the other stuff, if you want to crash the medical system, just let everybody who has a fever demand to see a doctor....if it's high or persists, yeah, but if everybody who gets the 24 hour standard cold but seeked a doctor, I would hate to think of what would happen.

The Atheist 30th January 2020 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12972384)
..but he seems to take such joy and pleasure in it.

Way to repeat the same fallacy while ignoring my question about what part of my posts show anything that says I think it's fun or enjoyable?

You are reading my posts through a haze of bias.

dudalb 30th January 2020 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by catsmate (Post 12971940)
Gee, how many of them have been mentioned in this thread.

It says something that "Contagion" though a fictional movie, is a lot more accurate about possible pandemics then this crap.

dudalb 30th January 2020 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by catsmate (Post 12971931)
There is a universe of gradations between harmless and "oh no the sky is falling".

Panic and Hysteria only make things worse. Always.

dudalb 30th January 2020 03:20 PM

Re: The Coronavirus
 
This outbreak seems to be reaching the point where it's becoming a "current event " bigtime;so might be a good idea to point out there is a thread about it in the science and medicine thread in this forum.

Link here:

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...d.php?t=341650

Dr.Sid 30th January 2020 03:21 PM

Hm .. check this .. SARS had almost 10% mortality. Scary.
This looks way better so far. But !
Imagine you are confirmed case. How long till you die after that ? That delay is crucial.
We know SARS had almost 10% now, when it's already over.
But nCov-2019 is not over. It's developing. And it's developing very fast, exponentially, and btw. way faster then SARS. SARS had 8000 cases total.
If we want to compute mortality, we can't just take dead-today/confirmed-today. We have to take number of confirmed people from when the person became confirmed. Let's say it take one week, on average, to die after you are confirmed case. So let's take number of dead today, ie 171, and number of confirmed cases one week back. ie 639.
That's 26%. That's apocalypse.
There are of course many other factors, which throw it out of the window. Some good. Like there is actually lot of undetected cases, as these are confirmed, PCR tested cases. There is not enough capacity to test everyone. And with that comes bad factor. It's said that only live people are tested, so there might be more dead than reported.
Guess we will only learn more when cases outside Chine become better know, and sadly, when's there more of them.

dudalb 30th January 2020 03:26 PM

Won't be long before the scam artists start selling phony cures for the coronavirus.
Probably already happening in China.

dudalb 30th January 2020 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid (Post 12972399)
Hm .. check this .. SARS had almost 10% mortality. Scary.
This looks way better so far. But !
Imagine you are confirmed case. How long till you die after that ? That delay is crucial.
We know SARS had almost 10% now, when it's already over.
But nCov-2019 is not over. It's developing. And it's developing very fast, exponentially, and btw. way faster then SARS. SARS had 8000 cases total.
If we want to compute mortality, we can't just take dead-today/confirmed-today. We have to take number of confirmed people from when the person became confirmed. Let's say it take one week, on average, to die after you are confirmed case. So let's take number of dead today, ie 171, and number of confirmed cases one week back. ie 639.
That's 26%. That's apocalypse.
There are of course many other factors, which throw it out of the window. Some good. Like there is actually lot of undetected cases, as these are confirmed, PCR tested cases. There is not enough capacity to test everyone. And with that comes bad factor. It's said that only live people are tested, so there might be more dead than reported.
Guess we will only learn more when cases outside Chine become better know, and sadly, when's there more of them.

The only conspiracy theory about the virus I can buy into is that the Chinese Government, to try to maintain calm, are lowballing the figures.

ceptimus 30th January 2020 03:27 PM

We also don't know yet what proportion of the population, if any, is immune to the virus.

But it looks like it will soon begin to spread from other centres - not just China. How long before the authorities give up on the idea of containment, and accept that it is likely to spread worldwide?

Shrinker 30th January 2020 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12972408)
Won't be long before the scam artists start selling phony cures for the coronavirus.
Probably already happening in China.

Already happening in the USA...

https://www.thedailybeast.com/qanon-...-lethal-bleach

Quote:

As the global death toll from an alarming new coronavirus surged this week, promoters of the pro-Trump QAnon conspiracy theory were urging their fans to ward off the illness by purchasing and drinking dangerous bleach.

The substance—dubbed “Miracle Mineral Solution” or “MMS”—has long been promoted by fringe groups as a combination miracle cure and vaccine for everything from autism to cancer and HIV/AIDS.

The Food and Drug Administration has repeatedly warned consumers not to drink MMS, last year calling it effectively a “dangerous bleach” that could cause “severe vomiting” and “acute liver failure.” But those warnings haven’t stopped QAnon devotees—who believe in a world where Donald Trump is at war with shadowy deep-state “cabal”—from promoting a lethal substance as a salve for a health crisis that speaks to the darkest recesses of fringe thought.

Dr.Sid 30th January 2020 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ceptimus (Post 12972412)
We also don't know yet what proportion of the population, if any, is immune to the virus.

But it looks like it will soon begin to spread from other centres - not just China. How long before the authorities give up on the idea of containment, and accept that it is likely to spread worldwide?

It is likely. But every delay helps, because help can be prepared, and every day we are closer to cure.

Armitage72 30th January 2020 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12972408)
Won't be long before the scam artists start selling phony cures for the coronavirus.
Probably already happening in China.


It was mentioned earlier in the thread that QAnon is telling people to drink bleach. More specifically, a chlorine dioxide solution that's being sold as Miracle Mineral Solution.

EDIT: Ninja'd

cullennz 30th January 2020 03:38 PM

If this is a vote thing I would say no at the moment as it seems a bit over the top hype when you look at how many die of the flu, measles and malaria every year

Dr.Sid 30th January 2020 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12972411)
The only conspiracy theory about the virus I can buy into is that the Chinese Government, to try to maintain calm, are lowballing the figures.

I actually don't think they are anymore. The numbers look quite good. Random enough. Regular enough. Consistent between regions. If it's a lie, it's very well fabricated one. And that's the thing with lies, they usually are pretty easy to spot.
The number can however be delayed.

Steve 30th January 2020 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Armitage72 (Post 12972424)
It was mentioned earlier in the thread that QAnon is telling people to drink bleach. More specifically, a chlorine dioxide solution that's being sold as Miracle Mineral Solution.

EDIT: Ninja'd

Injecting bleach would work faster. Gets straight to the little buggers in your bloodstream.

Dr.Sid 30th January 2020 03:48 PM

Btw. checked SARS speed .. in it's highest rate, it took about 2 weeks to increase number of cases 1.5 times. Which is about what the new coronavirus makes every day.

Skeptic Ginger 30th January 2020 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12972389)
And how the hell do you know somebody has the virus unless you assume anybody who is an Asian has it.
As for the other stuff, if you want to crash the medical system, just let everybody who has a fever demand to see a doctor....if it's high or persists, yeah, but if everybody who gets the 24 hour standard cold but seeked a doctor, I would hate to think of what would happen.

:thumbsup: Good points.

Skeptic Ginger 30th January 2020 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid (Post 12972399)
Hm .. check this .. SARS had almost 10% mortality. Scary.
This looks way better so far. But !....
Guess we will only learn more when cases outside Chine become better know, and sadly, when's there more of them.

Sigh. See my earlier post about what the SARS virus looked like early on. This pandemic (guess we can call it that now) is nothing like SARS.

There will be more total deaths because this pathogen will be more widespread. That doesn't mean it's going to be like SARS.

And guess how these pandemics come to a natural ending? Severe cases die or are quarantined while mild cases go undetected and are spread. The virus becomes naturally attenuated.

SuburbanTurkey 30th January 2020 04:12 PM

Supposed to be traveling to China for work in March. Feeling very good about it now. :eek:

Skeptic Ginger 30th January 2020 04:12 PM

This is interesting:
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan..._campaign=news
Quote:

However, Tedros was adamant that "the main reason for the declaration is not because of what is happening in China but because of what is happening in other countries. ... Let me be clear — this vote is not a declaration of no confidence in China." He said that the WHO is deeply concerned about what will happen if the virus begins spreading in countries with weak health systems and that the purpose of the declaration is to help those countries.
1) Interesting they don't want to offend China.
2) More interesting, they are exactly right, countries with poor public health infrastructure simply will not be able to contain the virus.

William Parcher 30th January 2020 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12972393)
It says something that "Contagion" though a fictional movie, is a lot more accurate about possible pandemics then this crap.


Global epidemic movie Contagion about deadly virus from Hong Kong hitting the US hits top ten iTunes chart almost a decade after its release amid coronavirus spread

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daily Mail
Contagion shot back into the iTunes renting charts as huge numbers began to watch the 2011 movie which has creepy similarities to the current coronavirus outbreak.

Starring Gwyneth Paltrow, Matt Damon and Kate Winslet, the movie tracks a global epidemic as a mystery virus from Hong Kong travels to the United States and kills millions of people.

Almost a decade after its release, Contagion jumped to number ten on the US iTunes renting chart and now sits in number 14. The 1995 movie Outbreak has also catapulted to spot 76...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...nes-chart.html

dudalb 30th January 2020 04:36 PM

"Contagion" is a really good movie that did not get the reception it deserved back in 2011.
One thing good about it is it actually tries to be accurate about what could happen in the US during a pandemic.

Venom 30th January 2020 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 12972261)
Yesterday I read that bats are still a focus as being the potential source. Snakes were initially targeted and have not been removed as the possible source. It seems that the virus closely resembles (but not identical) ones already known from bats and snakes. I read that snakes are common at the Wuhan market but that bats are seasonal and none were for sale at the market when the outbreak was initially attributed to that market.

I'm still adamant that bats are the natural hosts of the virus.

In my non-expert opinion it just seems unlikely that the roads lead to a non-mammalian origin.

dudalb 30th January 2020 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Armitage72 (Post 12972424)
It was mentioned earlier in the thread that QAnon is telling people to drink bleach. More specifically, a chlorine dioxide solution that's being sold as Miracle Mineral Solution.

EDIT: Ninja'd

Well,drink enough of that stuff and it will save you from dying of the virus.
You will be dead before the virus can get you....

Dr.Sid 30th January 2020 04:44 PM

This is also good movie. Releases in November 2019.

Event 201 Pandemic Exercise: Highlights Reel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoLw-Q8X174

William Parcher 30th January 2020 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Venom (Post 12972497)
I'm still adamant that bats are the natural hosts of the virus.

In my non-expert opinion it just seems unlikely that the roads lead to a non-mammalian origin.

Snakes do eat bats but I don't know if that matters here.

One of the earliest articles mentioned that this coronavirus does resemble a virus in cobras and kraits (both are snakes).

Yesterday I watched an amateur video of Wuhan market. All kinds of animals for sale. There were lots of snakes, but as far as I could tell they were all reticulated pythons. The video didn't show everything at the market and maybe there were cobras and kraits.

This is just FWIW.

William Parcher 30th January 2020 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12972496)
"Contagion" is a really good movie that did not get the reception it deserved back in 2011.

I don't know why you say this. The film was both a financial and critical success and it premiered at the Venice Film Festival.

Venom 30th January 2020 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 12972511)
Snakes do eat bats but I don't know if that matters here.

One of the earliest articles mentioned that this coronavirus does resemble a virus in cobras and kraits (both are snakes).

Yesterday I watched an amateur video of Wuhan market. All kinds of animals for sale. There were lots of snakes, but as far as I could tell they were all reticulated pythons. The video didn't show everything at the market and maybe there were cobras and kraits.

This is just FWIW.


Here's a paper published today in the British medical journal The Lancet.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Genomic characterisation and epidemiology of 2019 novel coronavirus: implications for virus origins and receptor binding
Phylogenetic analysis showed that bat-derived coronaviruses fell within all five subgenera of the genus Betacoronavirus. Moreover, bat-derived coronaviruses fell in basal positions in the subgenus Sarbecovirus, with 2019-nCoV most closely related to bat-SL-CoVZC45 and bat-SL-CoVZXC21, which were also sampled from bats.23 These data are consistent with a bat reservoir for coronaviruses in general and for 2019-nCoV in particular. However, despite the importance of bats, several facts suggest that another animal is acting as an intermediate host between bats and humans. First, the outbreak was first reported in late December, 2019, when most bat species in Wuhan are hibernating. Second, no bats were sold or found at the Huanan seafood market, whereas various non-aquatic animals (including mammals) were available for purchase. Third, the sequence identity between 2019-nCoV and its close relatives bat-SL-CoVZC45 and bat-SL-CoVZXC21 was less than 90%, which is reflected in the relatively long branch between them. Hence, bat-SL-CoVZC45 and bat-SL-CoVZXC21 are not direct ancestors of 2019-nCoV. Fourth, in both SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, bats acted as the natural reservoir, with another animal (masked palm civet for SARS-CoV35 and dromedary camels for MERS-CoV)36 acting as an intermediate host, with humans as terminal hosts. Therefore, on the basis of current data, it seems likely that the 2019-nCoV causing the Wuhan outbreak might also be initially hosted by bats, and might have been transmitted to humans via currently unknown wild animal(s) sold at the Huanan seafood market.


arthwollipot 30th January 2020 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve (Post 12972005)
Masks are completely useless for us bearded guys.

That's why when I bought my P2 filter mask for the bushfire smoke I made sure my beard was neatly trimmed to fit underneath it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darat (Post 12972324)
I'm working in Windsor at the moment and the largest group of tourists are the Chinese, the drop in the number of Chinese tourists is astonishing. When I was walking in front of the castle today I hardly saw a Chinese tourist and not a single tour group of Chinese.

I'm seeing no difference in the number of Chinese students on the bus. But they're here for half the year - many of them probably haven't been home since it started. It's not really comparable to tourism.

Dr.Sid 30th January 2020 05:28 PM

Comparison of SARS, 2009 swine flu, and nCov-2019 in simple graph:

https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester/st...08160869388289

rjh01 30th January 2020 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12972496)
"Contagion" is a really good movie that did not get the reception it deserved back in 2011.
One thing good about it is it actually tries to be accurate about what could happen in the US during a pandemic.

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 12972525)
I don't know why you say this. The film was both a financial and critical success and it premiered at the Venice Film Festival.

Its budget was $60,000,000. It made $136,515,867 worldwide.

More financial information about the movie here https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/...ref_=bo_se_r_1

On rotten tomatoes it gets 84%
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/contagion_2011

William Parcher 30th January 2020 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by arthwollipot (Post 12972547)
But they're here for half the year - many of them probably haven't been home since it started. It's not really comparable to tourism.

Is there any justifiable concern about personal goods shipped from China? I don't know how this virus works. Is there any chance of contamination with a "letter from home" coming from China?

arthwollipot 30th January 2020 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 12972564)
Is there any justifiable concern about personal goods shipped from China? I don't know how this virus works. Is there any chance of contamination with a "letter from home" coming from China?

Not unless the sender spat in it first.

The Atheist 30th January 2020 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 12972564)
Is there any justifiable concern about personal goods shipped from China? I don't know how this virus works. Is there any chance of contamination with a "letter from home" coming from China?

Barely possible with a super-fast shipment. The virus is only viable for a matter of hours outside the body.

William Parcher 30th January 2020 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by arthwollipot (Post 12972566)
Not unless the sender spat in it first.

You are saying that touch contamination is no concern with this coronavirus.

Skeptic Ginger 30th January 2020 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12972496)
"Contagion" is a really good movie that did not get the reception it deserved back in 2011.
One thing good about it is it actually tries to be accurate about what could happen in the US during a pandemic.

Uuuummmm, some of the stuff.

A few good things, shipping bad vaccine to third world countries, I can see that happening.

Making a big deal about the scientists vaccinating family and other loved ones, that was dumb. Of course anyone with hands on vaccine distribution would do that. Not too many people would care. It would only be a tiny fraction of the doses.

The biggest problem was the speed they sent the virus around, condensed to make the movie work. No real pathogen would do that. Though you can look historically at measles and small pox spreading in the Americas to get a real life model. It takes a longer period of communicability and more survivors or the pandemic would essentially burn out quickly.

William Parcher 30th January 2020 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 12972567)
Barely possible with a super-fast shipment. The virus is only viable for a matter of hours outside the body.

Ok, thanks.

arthwollipot 30th January 2020 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 12972568)
You are saying that touch contamination is no concern with this coronavirus.

The main concern with touch is that if you touch a surface contaminated with the surviving virus, you may then transfer that virus to your mouth or nose. I don't know how long this particular virus can survive on a surface. It may be long enough to survive a trip through international post, but I would think it unlikely. Even viruses that survive for a very long time on surfaces like measles are rarely reported as being transmitted through the post.

But here you go. This might help with your question, depending on how much you trust the New York Post as a source.

Coronavirus can spread on contaminated surfaces, experts warn

Skeptic Ginger 30th January 2020 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 12972567)
Barely possible with a super-fast shipment. The virus is only viable for a matter of hours outside the body.

Where did you find that?

Dr.Sid 30th January 2020 05:44 PM

My best time from China is like 10 days. 30 is more usual. With the holidays and virus outbreak, I'd say 60 is optimistic. In other words, I'm good.


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