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-   -   Merged: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=341650)

Skeptic Ginger 30th January 2020 05:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by arthwollipot (Post 12972576)
The main concern with touch is that if you touch a surface contaminated with the surviving virus, you may then transfer that virus to your mouth or nose. I don't know how long this particular virus can survive on a surface. It may be long enough to survive a trip through international post, but I would think it unlikely. Even viruses that survive for a very long time on surfaces like measles are rarely reported as being transmitted through the post.

But here you go. This might help with your question, depending on how much you trust the New York Post as a source.

Coronavirus can spread on contaminated surfaces, experts warn

From that link:
Quote:

It’s unclear how long the virus can survive on surfaces, but experts said the new development may indicate handling packages from China carries health risks.
There is no evidence of that that I've seen. Sounds like something they got off reddit.

arthwollipot 30th January 2020 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12972582)
From that link: There is no evidence of that that I've seen. Sounds like something they got off reddit.

Yes, the citation of the CEO of an company that sells air purification equipment as an "expert" is somewhat suspicious.

ETA: That was just the first link I found. Looking further into it, I would seek alternate sources.

dudalb 30th January 2020 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12972571)
Uuuummmm, some of the stuff.

A few good things, shipping bad vaccine to third world countries, I can see that happening.

Making a big deal about the scientists vaccinating family and other loved ones, that was dumb. Of course anyone with hands on vaccine distribution would do that. Not too many people would care. It would only be a tiny fraction of the doses.

The biggest problem was the speed they sent the virus around, condensed to make the movie work. No real pathogen would do that. Though you can look historically at measles and small pox spreading in the Americas to get a real life model. It takes a longer period of communicability and more survivors or the pandemic would essentially burn out quickly.

It would take longer in real life;but I can see why they sped it up for dramatic purposes.
I can see you watch movies dealing with medical/public health issues the same way I do with films dealing with Military issues. We both get pretty picky at times.
Still, compared to something like "Outbreak"....

I did like the way they socked it to the woo merchants with the Jude Law character ,though.....

Skeptic Ginger 30th January 2020 06:13 PM

Sigh. Science please, not comments in news magazines or unsupported comments on forums.

NIH, 2010 so this will only be possibly similar: Effects of Air Temperature and Relative Humidity on Coronavirus Survival on Surfaces▿

First, a note about surrogate virus studies, because you can't easily study deadly pathogens:
Quote:

In addition to SARS-CoV, there are two pathogenic human coronaviruses that are adapted to propagation and assay in cell culture, 229E and OC43, which could serve as surrogates for SARS-CoV in survival studies. However, previous studies suggested that the survival of 229E and OC43 on surfaces may be shorter than that of SARS-CoV (10, 35). To evaluate surrogates that might serve as more conservative models of SARS-CoV on surfaces, animal coronaviruses were chosen as surrogates for this study.
Second there are lots of variables so it's best to look at the whole article to understand that if one is interested. It has a discussion of the wide variability.

Quote:

The results show that when high numbers of the surrogates TGEV and MHV are deposited, these viruses may survive for days on surfaces at the ambient AT and wide range of RH levels (20 to 60% RH) typical of health care environments. TGEV and MHV may be more resistant to inactivation on surfaces than previously studied human coronaviruses, such as 229E (28). SARS-CoV has been reported to survive for 36 h on stainless steel (35), but the reductions in the levels observed were greater than those seen for either TGEV or MHV at 20°C at any RH in this study. However, the AT and RH conditions for the previous experiment were not reported, making comparisons difficult. Rabenau et al. (23) reported much slower inactivation of SARS-CoV on a polystyrene surface (4 log10 reduction after 9 days; AT and RH conditions not reported), consistent with some observations for TGEV and MHV in the present study. There are some similarities with studies of another enveloped virus, human influenza virus, on surfaces in that at higher RH (50 to 60%), the inactivation kinetics are closer to those of TGEV and MHV (21).

And third, not mentioned in this study, there is an infectious dose issue, and that dose has to actually enter the host's body. What one can recover off a surface in a study like this doesn't tell us, for example, if that's sufficient to get on a hand and into one's mouth/nose/eyes.

It will take epidemiological studies to determine actual transmission risk.

I think it's safe to say it's absurdly unlikely packages/letters shipped from China are going to pose a risk.

casebro 30th January 2020 06:24 PM

How many cases and how many deaths outside of China?

Is this another disease that plain old good nursing prevents deaths? Fluids and electrolytes?

Dr.Sid 30th January 2020 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by casebro (Post 12972607)
How many cases and how many deaths outside of China?

Is this another disease that plain old good nursing prevents deaths? Fluids and electrolytes?

No deaths outside China. Which is like super easy to google, or check on wikipedia. You won't survive the global pandemic like this !

Skeptic Ginger 30th January 2020 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by casebro (Post 12972607)
How many cases and how many deaths outside of China?

Quite a few cases, widely spread around the world, one or two secondary cases in those countries, you can expect a lot more.

But no fatalities outside of China IIRC. There will be some.

Quote:

Is this another disease that plain old good nursing prevents deaths? Fluids and electrolytes?
They aren't dying of diarrhea.

Preventing or treating secondary pneumonia will be better in first world countries. But we don't have a lot of remedies for this viral pneumonia yet. So supportive care is limited. And a widespread epidemic could tax the ventilator capacity in any country.

Looking at Hantavirus, ECMO will be needed and that capacity is severely limited. There will almost certainly be triage to younger, otherwise healthy patients. We don't use ECMO now on many elderly patients with severe pneumonia, including those suffering from influenza.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21900022
Quote:

CONCLUSIONS:
Two-thirds of 51 HCPS patients with a predicted mortality of 100%, who were supported with ECMO, survived and recovered completely. Survival was significantly higher in the second half of the study. Complications associated with both types of femoral cannulation were associated with a trend toward decreased survival, which was not significant.
HCPS is Hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome.

deadrose 30th January 2020 06:46 PM

The scenario I've seen that made the most sense was that it's a bat virus that transferred through snakes to humans because of the practice of drinking fresh snake's blood for virility. Supposedly at the wet markets they will slaughter the snake and drain it into a cup for the buyer.

The person saying this had lived in China and was familiar with their customs, so it's unlikely to be the latest crazy conspiracy theory, but I have no proof, just a source who's usually reputable.

Venom 30th January 2020 08:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by deadrose (Post 12972635)
The scenario I've seen that made the most sense was that it's a bat virus that transferred through snakes to humans because of the practice of drinking fresh snake's blood for virility. Supposedly at the wet markets they will slaughter the snake and drain it into a cup for the buyer.

The person saying this had lived in China and was familiar with their customs, so it's unlikely to be the latest crazy conspiracy theory, but I have no proof, just a source who's usually reputable.

Well it wouldn't exactly make it a conspiracy theory.

Just one of many hypotheses about the origin of this outbreak.

angrysoba 30th January 2020 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 12972493)
Global epidemic movie Contagion about deadly virus from Hong Kong hitting the US hits top ten iTunes chart almost a decade after its release amid coronavirus spread



https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...nes-chart.html

So has Contagion gone viral?

angrysoba 30th January 2020 09:29 PM

Japan has been repatriating its citizens from China but have made the moronic decision to allow them to go home. Two of them even refused to be tested! It’s ridiculous that it was even an option for them. Whereas in the UK, repatriated citizens will have to be quarantined at Brize Norton for two weeks, Japanese citizens had optional screening and then went home if they tested negative.

Two of those who tested positive were asymptomatic.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...n-coronavirus/

rjh01 30th January 2020 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by arthwollipot (Post 12972576)
The main concern with touch is that if you touch a surface contaminated with the surviving virus, you may then transfer that virus to your mouth or nose. I don't know how long this particular virus can survive on a surface. It may be long enough to survive a trip through international post, but I would think it unlikely. Even viruses that survive for a very long time on surfaces like measles are rarely reported as being transmitted through the post.

But here you go. This might help with your question, depending on how much you trust the New York Post as a source.

Coronavirus can spread on contaminated surfaces, experts warn

Here is a more reliable source
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html

Quote:

Q: Am I at risk for novel coronavirus from a package or products shipping from China?
There is still a lot that is unknown about the newly emerged 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) and how it spreads. Two other coronaviruses have emerged previously to cause severe illness in people (MERS and SARS). 2019-nCoV is more genetically related to SARS than MERS, but both are betacoronaviruses with their origins in bats. While we don’t know for sure that this virus will behave the same way as SARS and MERS, we can use the information from both of these earlier coronaviruses to guide us. In general, because of poor survivability of these coronaviruses on surfaces, there is likely very low risk of spread from products or packaging that are shipped over a period of days or weeks at ambient temperatures. Coronaviruses are generally thought to be spread most often by respiratory droplets. Currently there is no evidence to support transmission of 2019-nCoV associated with imported goods and there have not been any cases of 2019-nCoV in the United States associated with imported goods.
Does not answer the question can I get it from touching something that another person, who is infected, has recently touched? And how long is recently?

arthwollipot 30th January 2020 09:40 PM

Thanks for that rj. So yeah, the risk of it spreading via international mail is low.

Red Baron Farms 30th January 2020 11:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 12972370)
The opposite is in fact the case - I'd far prefer there were no pandemics of diseases that kill people and that places like China would wake up to the fact that animals when used for food need to be treated in ways that minimise the risk of zoonotic disease, not exacerbate them.

Not only China. Most the world actually.

McHrozni 30th January 2020 11:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by deadrose (Post 12972635)
The scenario I've seen that made the most sense was that it's a bat virus that transferred through snakes to humans because of the practice of drinking fresh snake's blood for virility. Supposedly at the wet markets they will slaughter the snake and drain it into a cup for the buyer.

The person saying this had lived in China and was familiar with their customs, so it's unlikely to be the latest crazy conspiracy theory, but I have no proof, just a source who's usually reputable.

Sounds like something that would happen in China, but how does drinking snake blood expose you to a bat virus?

McHrozni

The Atheist 31st January 2020 12:55 AM

NZ looks like having its first case, with firm results due tomorrow.

With still 5-10 flights daily between NZ & China, the person will soon not be alone.

Tourist businesses are pooping their pants at the thought of closing Chinese travel, with China being by far the biggest numeric visitor source, and they've dropped by almost 50% as a result of restrictions in China.

I imagine lots of people would be a bit averse to sitting in an enclosed cabin with 300 potential carriers for 16 hours, too.

rjh01 31st January 2020 12:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by McHrozni (Post 12972819)
Sounds like something that would happen in China, but how does drinking snake blood expose you to a bat virus?

McHrozni

The snake eats the bat that has the virus. The virus survives in the snake. The snake is then killed and the blood drained and drank by a human without being cooked. The virus thinks it is back in a bat, but one that does not know how to deal with the virus. So the human falls sick. Even better (for the virus, not me) the virus can spread to another human.

angrysoba 31st January 2020 01:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12972162)
ANd what is scary is that you have to wonder if the Chinese Government is low balling the figures. They know better then to out and out try to hide that it's a serous situation, but I would not put trying to downplay how serious it is. Authorarain regimes have a habit of doing that.

Dunno about that. It doesn't appear as though they are playing anything down at the moment.

China may have form for it, as with other authoritarian regimes, as you say, but there doesn't seem much evidence for it this time.

The Atheist 31st January 2020 01:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by angrysoba (Post 12972845)
China may have form for it, as with other authoritarian regimes, as you say, but there doesn't seem much evidence for it this time.

There's also a massive lag in testing and treating patients in a system that was never designed to cope with the numbers they have, so while the numbers are definitely under-reported in infection totals, it's not deliberate.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/27/w...us-health.html

Capsid 31st January 2020 03:03 AM

Two cases confirmed in UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51325192

Drewbot 31st January 2020 06:09 AM

Welp, the Chinese are smashing MahJong tables to keep people from gathering. I guess the masks aren't doing their job.

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=sh5CB_1580400020

The Great Zaganza 31st January 2020 06:13 AM

Right now, I am quite worried about the impact of the epidemic on Russia: all the same reasons for locals to pretend there is no problem, but without the will or ability of the central government to isolate the problem.

Dr.Sid 31st January 2020 07:18 AM

Local news brought article from BBC, but I couldn't find it on BBC. So no English version, sorry.

https://www.lidovky.cz/svet/jak-koro...zahranici_tesa

The article describes symptoms, cause of death, and other new information, based on cases in China.

From study set of 99 cases, 11 died, 57 is still being treated. The first person who died, died after 11 days from being hospitalized, and that case is considered fast, poor lung condition due to smoking being the factor. So the mortality is on par with SARS, and death number lags significantly behind the infected.

They say that most of the infected are men between 56-67, sadly no more detail. 52 of 99 suffered from other health issues (hearth disease, stroke in the past, diabetes), smoking seems to be strong factor too.

As for the number of infected, the exponential growth slowed down a bit. This is table for 1 day factor based on 7 day average, together with number of cases in China. 1.42 is still insane though.

23.1.2020 830 1,51648437449667
24.1.2020 1287 1,54230245915943
25.1.2020 1975 1,49023422342696
26.1.2020 2744 1,45580330971039
27.1.2020 4545 1,48088088847644
28.1.2020 5974 1,45154452865662
29.1.2020 7711 1,45042865334268
30.1.2020 9692 1,42061525287631

Lennart Hyland 31st January 2020 09:06 AM

Confirmed case of corona in my country, Sweden.

JeanTate 31st January 2020 09:15 AM

Sorry no links ...

SCMP (South China Morning Post, an English-language HK newspaper) has an article on fury in China over a paper (papers?) reporting that the dangers of the Wuhan coronavirus were known well before the public alerts were issued. I'm not clear about the exact timeline, especially re when the early data on the illness became available to the researchers. However, it seemed clear that the nature of the illness was, in some sense, known to at least some public officials (in Wuhan alone? in some bodies in Beijing too?) well before the alarm was sounded.

NPR article reported on something apparently rather common: villages erecting road blocks, preventing people from entering or leaving. Yes, many are surely illegal, and there's an element of stable doors being bolted after the horse has gone (and what to do about people already in the villages who come down with symptoms after the road blocks have gone up). This is in addition to the various official bans on travel. But it all may help to slow down the spread.

Surely the biggest concern is if the Wuhan coronavirus spreads to many countries with weak public health systems ... it would then likely become endemic there, and nigh on impossible to stop it spreading worldwide, right? A "new flu" perhaps.

Capsid 31st January 2020 09:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JeanTate (Post 12973217)
Surely the biggest concern is if the Wuhan coronavirus spreads to many countries with weak public health systems ... it would then likely become endemic there, and nigh on impossible to stop it spreading worldwide, right? A "new flu" perhaps.

This is why the WHO called a PHEIC.

novaphile 31st January 2020 12:33 PM

I note people saying this, and wonder if this is a form of Y2k denial.

i.e. SARS only killed 900 people, because of a co-ordinated world-wide response to stop it.

Trebuchet 31st January 2020 12:35 PM

But there's good news: According to US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross the virus will be good for the US economy.

And in Italy, "Oriental" students who haven't been home in years are being kept out of class.

William Parcher 31st January 2020 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjh01 (Post 12972842)
The snake eats the bat that has the virus. The virus survives in the snake. The snake is then killed and the blood drained and drank by a human without being cooked. The virus thinks it is back in a bat, but one that does not know how to deal with the virus. So the human falls sick. Even better (for the virus, not me) the virus can spread to another human.

It might not require the snake to eat the bat. The snake might become infected by exposure to bat saliva, or urine or possibly guano. The same thing could be true for other possible vector animals. Eating an infected bat might not be a necessary thing.

novaphile 31st January 2020 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 12973484)
It might not require the snake to eat the bat. The snake might become infected by exposure to bat saliva, or urine or possibly guano. The same thing could be true for other possible vector animals. Eating an infected bat might not be a necessary thing.

I've seen documentary footage of snakes and bats living in the same cave (snakes probably eating bats).

Under those circumstances, the snakes would be crawling over bat feces 24 hours per day.

All that's missing in that scenario is someone catching the snakes to sell at market.

JoeMorgue 31st January 2020 12:59 PM

The CDC has imposed a 14 day quarantine on Americans evacuted from Wuhan.

CNN: https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/31/healt...day/index.html

Skeptic Ginger 31st January 2020 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjh01 (Post 12972842)
The snake eats the bat that has the virus. The virus survives in the snake. The snake is then killed and the blood drained and drank by a human without being cooked. The virus thinks it is back in a bat, but one that does not know how to deal with the virus. So the human falls sick. Even better (for the virus, not me) the virus can spread to another human.

The thing about this hypothesis, much as it is possible, is that the first cases have now been traced to people who did not go to the Wuhan market.

It's more likely a few cases were passed around before the outbreak took off.

We’re still not sure where the Wuhan coronavirus really came from
Quote:

But outside research into the illness suggests that the disease may not have come from the market after all—rather, it may have come into the market. Speaking to Science, Georgetown University infectious disease specialist Daniel Lucey noted that since the virus seems to have an incubation period of up to 14 days and the first reported case emerged on Dec 1, it’s possible the initial human infection took place in November. And since the virus presents only cold-like symptoms in many individuals, Patient Zero—whoever they are—could have spread it to others long before health officials knew what to look for. That means it could have infected humans before even making it to the market under scrutiny.

In an interview published by the Infectious Disease Society of America’s global health blog, Lucey called for scientists to look beyond the Huanan Seafood Market and test animals and humans involved in the “supply chain of infected animals.” Animal-to-person transmission of the virus could have occurred “in one or more multiple markets, or restaurants, or farms, or with wild animals, legal or illegal trade,” he said.

alfaniner 31st January 2020 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by novaphile (Post 12973495)
I've seen documentary footage of snakes and bats living in the same cave (snakes probably eating bats).

Under those circumstances, the snakes would be crawling over bat feces 24 hours per day.

All that's missing in that scenario is someone catching the snakes to sell at market.

"Mass Hysteria!!!"

novaphile 31st January 2020 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alfaniner (Post 12973506)
"Mass Hysteria!!!"

erm...

Isn't that "dogs and cats living together" ???

Skeptic Ginger 31st January 2020 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid (Post 12973052)
... From study set of 99 cases, ...
They say that most of the infected are men between 56-67, sadly no more detail. 52 of 99 suffered from other health issues (hearth disease, stroke in the past, diabetes), smoking seems to be strong factor too.

...

Are many women in China smokers? If not, that could explain the preponderance of men getting severe illness.

The Great Zaganza 31st January 2020 01:08 PM

It's ok as long as they are married to each other.

William Parcher 31st January 2020 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 12973503)
The thing about this hypothesis, much as it is possible, is that the first cases have now been traced to people who did not go to the Wuhan market.

Those people may have been exposed to snake or bat collectors. If your husband or cousin or friend is a snake collector you don't have to go to the market to become infected.

Venom 31st January 2020 01:09 PM

A paper published yesterday in the Journal of Medical Virology also suggests that the first infections occurred in early-mid November, November 9th it says with 95% credible interval (confidence interval?).

William Parcher 31st January 2020 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Venom (Post 12973514)
A paper published yesterday in the Journal of Medical Virology also suggests that the first infections occurred in early-mid November, November 9th it says with 95% credible interval (confidence interval?).

I'm not sure but I think that 95% thing is related to the "genetic clock" thing. The virus has mutated 5% since November 9th. On November 9th the virus had 0% mutations.

I could be totally wrong.

Skeptic Ginger 31st January 2020 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 12973513)
Those people may have been exposed to snake or bat collectors. If your husband or cousin or friend is a snake collector you don't have to go to the market to become infected.

There's no question this virus jumped from animal to people. And jumping from one animal species to another as an intermediary before jumping to humans is very common.

It could also be that the first people infected, infected others at the market, or infected animals at the market that then infected more people.

I was just pointing out the market is no longer thought to be where patient zero acquired the infection.


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