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-   -   Merged: Venezuela on the edge of ending.... (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=329774)

Bob001 3rd June 2018 09:37 PM

Venezuela on the edge of ending....
 
Quote:

During the first five months of the year, roughly 400,000 Venezuelans have fled the country, following 1.8 million who left over the last two years, according to the Central University of Venezuela. Yet even those numbers may not fully capture the scope of the exodus. Aid workers dealing with the crisis in bordering nations say an average of 4,600 Venezuelans a day have been leaving since Jan. 1 — putting the outflow during this year alone at nearly 700,000.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...?noredirect=on

The Don 3rd June 2018 11:13 PM

Why isn't this refugee crisis getting the coverage it deserves? Is it because the Venezuelan government is silencing the press ? Is it because countries in the region are well enough off to (just about) cope? Is the US and her allies letting the crisis run its course in the hope and expectation that it will topple the Venezuelan government?

arthwollipot 4th June 2018 12:08 AM

According to Wikipedia, the population of Venezuela is thirty one and a half million. While 0.02% of the population leaving is certainly a concern, it's hardly "on the edge of ending" the country. If people leave the country at that rate for the next oooh, hundred and fifty years, then the country is likely to be on the verge of collapse.

The Don 4th June 2018 12:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by arthwollipot (Post 12314764)
According to Wikipedia, the population of Venezuela is thirty one and a half million. While 0.02% of the population leaving is certainly a concern, it's hardly "on the edge of ending" the country. If people leave the country at that rate for the next oooh, hundred and fifty years, then the country is likely to be on the verge of collapse.

It's 2%, not 0.02% if 700,000 have left this year.

If the 1.8 million are included in that number then it's closer to 8% over the last 2 1/2 years

Bob001 4th June 2018 01:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 12314733)
Why isn't this refugee crisis getting the coverage it deserves? Is it because the Venezuelan government is silencing the press ? Is it because countries in the region are well enough off to (just about) cope? Is the US and her allies letting the crisis run its course in the hope and expectation that it will topple the Venezuelan government?

The country is losing its best-educated and most skilled people, including doctors and teachers. They are starting new lives in other countries. It's not like they're all in camps somewhere. I don't see how Venezuela could keep them from leaving. And who would bail out the Venezuelan economy, and how?

Bob001 4th June 2018 01:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by arthwollipot (Post 12314764)
According to Wikipedia, the population of Venezuela is thirty one and a half million. While 0.02% of the population leaving is certainly a concern, it's hardly "on the edge of ending" the country. If people leave the country at that rate for the next oooh, hundred and fifty years, then the country is likely to be on the verge of collapse.

The country's economy has been collapsing for years, and the best-educated, most skilled people are bailing out.

The Don 4th June 2018 01:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob001 (Post 12314792)
The country is losing its best-educated and most skilled people, including doctors and teachers. They are starting new lives in other countries. It's not like they're all in camps somewhere. I don't see how Venezuela could keep them from leaving. And who would bail out the Venezuelan economy, and how?

I'm not sure how this relates to my comment :confused:

My comment related to why we haven't heard about this issue - not why it's continuing.


edited to add....

But this comment from your OP does seem to suggest that it's not just the educated middle classes who are leaving:

Quote:

Aid workers dealing with the crisis in bordering nations...
So there are aid workers dealing with a crisis - why isn't this bigger news ?

McHrozni 4th June 2018 04:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob001 (Post 12314795)
The country's economy has been collapsing for years, and the best-educated, most skilled people are bailing out.

Most of those bailed out fifteen years ago. This is the second wave of what's left, the country will be lucky to avoid becoming a failed state, if it isn't already.

Even oil production is plummeting, by 600 kbpd in the past year - all of it unscheduled and a result of disasterous mismanagement of the national oil company.

https://tradingeconomics.com/venezue...oil-production

I'll add that most of the drop is in the state-owned ventures with partner projects holding steady, making the drop in the state income even harder.

McHrozni

theprestige 4th June 2018 06:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 12314733)
Why isn't this refugee crisis getting the coverage it deserves? Is it because the Venezuelan government is silencing the press ? Is it because countries in the region are well enough off to (just about) cope? Is the US and her allies letting the crisis run its course in the hope and expectation that it will topple the Venezuelan government?

What exactly are "the US and its allies" supposed to do to stop the crisis in Venezuela?

Ziggurat 4th June 2018 06:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 12314733)
Why isn't this refugee crisis getting the coverage it deserves?

Because it doesn't involve Trump.

The Don 4th June 2018 06:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theprestige (Post 12314950)
What exactly are "the US and its allies" supposed to do to stop the crisis in Venezuela?

Nothing to stop the crisis - but then again I never suggested that the US and its allies should. My point related to why we've heard nothing about this apparent refugee crisis. One of the possible reasons for why not it that drawing attention to the crisis may result in action which may in turn prevent regime change. Regime change would be in the interests of the US and its allies (and very probably in the interests of Venezuelans - unless the replacement regime is even worse).

That said, if hundreds of thousands of people are pouring across the border into neighbouring countries then the US' allies will have do do something and maybe could use some help from the US.

The Don 4th June 2018 06:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ziggurat (Post 12314957)
Because it doesn't involve Trump.

The Guatemalan volcanic eruption has made global world headlines and AFAIK that has had nothing to do with President Trump. :confused:

Ziggurat 4th June 2018 06:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 12314970)
The Guatemalan volcanic eruption has made global world headlines and AFAIK that has had nothing to do with President Trump. :confused:

That story is nonpolitical. It doesn't compete in the same space.

The Don 4th June 2018 07:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ziggurat (Post 12314999)
That story is nonpolitical. It doesn't compete in the same space.

The crisis involving African refugees/asylum seekers/economic migrants gets plenty of coverage globally and AFAIK that has nothing to do with President Trump.

Segnosaur 4th June 2018 07:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 12314733)
Why isn't this refugee crisis getting the coverage it deserves? Is it because the Venezuelan government is silencing the press ? Is it because countries in the region are well enough off to (just about) cope? Is the US and her allies letting the crisis run its course in the hope and expectation that it will topple the Venezuelan government?

Some other possible reasons:

- The refugees are largely economic (compared to, for example, the refugees fleeing Syria, where military conflict plays a bigger role)

- Fewer of the refugees have big western countries (e.g. the U.S./Germany/Britain/etc.) as their destination

- Those fleeing Venezuela are probably seen as relatively low risk (whereas those fleeing Syria are often viewed with suspicion as containing radicalized Islamic terrorists hiding amongst the true refugees)

theprestige 4th June 2018 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 12314967)
Nothing to stop the crisis - but then again I never suggested that the US and its allies should. My point related to why we've heard nothing about this apparent refugee crisis. One of the possible reasons for why not it that drawing attention to the crisis may result in action which may in turn prevent regime change. Regime change would be in the interests of the US and its allies (and very probably in the interests of Venezuelans - unless the replacement regime is even worse).

That said, if hundreds of thousands of people are pouring across the border into neighbouring countries then the US' allies will have do do something and maybe could use some help from the US.

You said, "letting the crisis run its course", which I understood to mean they could do the opposite - "not let the crisis run its course" - i.e., stop it (or try to stop it). It was in that context that I asked what you thought the US and its allies are supposed to do.

Also, why do you stop short of saying the US should do anything? It seems like you are implying a criticism of the US for not acting differently. Why not make your criticism explicit? What is the US doing wrong about the situation in Venezuela, in your opinion? What do you think the US should be doing instead?

And why is this about the US, for you, anyway?

The Don 4th June 2018 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theprestige (Post 12315104)
You said, "letting the crisis run its course", which I understood to mean they could do the opposite - "not let the crisis run its course" - i.e., stop it (or try to stop it). It was in that context that I asked what you thought the US and its allies are supposed to do.

I had heard nothing about hundreds of thousands of people pouring across the Venezuelan borders and was wondering why this was the case.

Quote:

Originally Posted by theprestige (Post 12315104)
Also, why do you stop short of saying the US should do anything? It seems like you are implying a criticism of the US for not acting differently. Why not make your criticism explicit? What is the US doing wrong about the situation in Venezuela, in your opinion? What do you think the US should be doing instead?

If it seems like I'm implying criticism then IMO the problem is yours, not mine.

Quote:

Originally Posted by theprestige (Post 12315104)
And why is this about the US, for you, anyway?

It isn't as far as I am concerned, but for some reason you seem to want to make it so.

Ziggurat 4th June 2018 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 12315025)
The crisis involving African refugees/asylum seekers/economic migrants gets plenty of coverage globally and AFAIK that has nothing to do with President Trump.

Oh, but it's got plenty to do with Trump. He's racist, anti-immigrant, and islamophobic, remember?

Plus, of course, that story is unfolding on Europe's own soil. Venezuela is happening far away. One shouldn't expect similar coverage in Europe. I bet that Venezuela's downward spiral is all over the press in Colombia, though.

Oystein 4th June 2018 09:15 AM

There are thousands of people daily crossing a lot borders everywhere all the time - that in itself is not newsworthy. Question is: where are the Venezuelans going, and how much of a problem do they cause there? I bet they have several options in the Spanish speaking world, where the can blend in with much more ease than Syrian or Afghani refugees in Europe, who generally face much more of a language and cultural barrier.

Until recently I had a Venezuelan colleague here in Germany, who has learned German well, is a very competent nurse, and her change of jobs is actually a step of career advancement.

So I am wondering if there is statistical or anecdotal information out there to what extent Venezuelans manage to make it abroad without becoming a long-term case for aid workers, relative to African, Arab or South Asian displaced persons.

logger 4th June 2018 09:47 AM

If only we had a democrat socialist who would show up and save them. He could nationalized certain industry, jail certain people who complain too much, forcefully encourage farmers to work for nothing, hand out red shirts.....

Ian Osborne 4th June 2018 09:51 AM

Where did it all go wrong for Venezuela? It used to be one of the strongest economies in South America.

Garrison 4th June 2018 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 12315145)
I had heard nothing about hundreds of thousands of people pouring across the Venezuelan borders and was wondering why this was the case.

Because there is no humanitarian crisis associated with the movement? If these people are being absorbed by surrounding countries without any refugee camps or major upheaval its probably not going to draw a lot of attention.

theprestige 4th June 2018 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 12315145)
I had heard nothing about hundreds of thousands of people pouring across the Venezuelan borders and was wondering why this was the case.



If it seems like I'm implying criticism then IMO the problem is yours, not mine.



It isn't as far as I am concerned, but for some reason you seem to want to make it so.

Thanks for the clarification.

Ziggurat 4th June 2018 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garrison (Post 12315297)
Because there is no humanitarian crisis associated with the movement?

What on earth are you talking about? Of course there's a humanitarian crisis associated with the movement. The fact that the main crisis is in Venezuela and not the surrounding countries doesn't make it go away.

Quote:

If these people are being absorbed by surrounding countries without any refugee camps or major upheaval its probably not going to draw a lot of attention.
But there are refugee camps.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...oss-the-border

Steve 4th June 2018 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 12314733)
Why isn't this refugee crisis getting the coverage it deserves? Is it because the Venezuelan government is silencing the press ? Is it because countries in the region are well enough off to (just about) cope? Is the US and her allies letting the crisis run its course in the hope and expectation that it will topple the Venezuelan government?

Quote:

Originally Posted by theprestige (Post 12315104)
You said, "letting the crisis run its course", which I understood to mean they could do the opposite - "not let the crisis run its course" - i.e., stop it (or try to stop it). It was in that context that I asked what you thought the US and its allies are supposed to do.

Also, why do you stop short of saying the US should do anything? It seems like you are implying a criticism of the US for not acting differently. Why not make your criticism explicit? What is the US doing wrong about the situation in Venezuela, in your opinion? What do you think the US should be doing instead?

And why is this about the US, for you, anyway?

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 12315145)
I had heard nothing about hundreds of thousands of people pouring across the Venezuelan borders and was wondering why this was the case.



If it seems like I'm implying criticism then IMO the problem is yours, not mine.



It isn't as far as I am concerned, but for some reason you seem to want to make it so.


The Don,

You first raised the issue of the US in post #2 and suggested motivation on their part.

the prestige questioned your reasoning and you respond by saying it is not about the US.

It does make a person wonder why you included US reactions in your comment if you do not wish to discuss them.

theprestige 4th June 2018 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve (Post 12315394)
The Don,

You first raised the issue of the US in post #2 and suggested motivation on their part.

the prestige questioned your reasoning and you respond by saying it is not about the US.

It does make a person wonder why you included US reactions in your comment if you do not wish to discuss them.

It's standard motte-and-bailey argumentation, I think.

Insinuate that something should be done (give the crisis the "coverage it deserves") and that it isn't being done because reasons ("the US and her allies letting the crisis run its course in the hope and expectation that it will topple the Venezuelan government").

And then as soon as someone picks up on the insinuation and tries to address or challenge the argument being made, retreat back to Just Asking Questions. Suddenly we're left wondering if The Don even believes the crisis isn't getting the "coverage it deserves".

On a related note, the insinuation itself is pretty bizarre. The Don seems to be talking about media coverage - why aren't the big media outlets covering this more fully or whatever. But the motivation he proposes is a matter of government policy, not media interest. Either The Don thinks that the mainstream media is a PR organ of state policy in the US, or he means that the mainstream media is being muzzled by the US government for reasons of state policy. Maybe we can unpack these implications the next time The Don sallies forth from his bailey into the motte.

Garrison 4th June 2018 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ziggurat (Post 12315321)
What on earth are you talking about? Of course there's a humanitarian crisis associated with the movement. The fact that the main crisis is in Venezuela and not the surrounding countries doesn't make it go away.


But my entire point was that its the lack of the usual high visibility signs of a crisis that prompts the lack of media attention, which was the question I was responding to.

Quote:

But there are refugee camps.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...oss-the-border
One small transit camp for 120 people for 48 hours at a time, again not the kind of thing to draw media attention.

Add in that Venezuela is not exactly a conducive environment for foreign media coverage and the lack of attention is unsurprising.

Ziggurat 4th June 2018 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garrison (Post 12315483)
But my entire point was that its the lack of the usual high visibility signs of a crisis that prompts the lack of media attention, which was the question I was responding to.



One small transit camp for 120 people for 48 hours at a time, again not the kind of thing to draw media attention.

Add in that Venezuela is not exactly a conducive environment for foreign media coverage and the lack of attention is unsurprising.

These are incomplete explanations. They are reasons why the story is easy to ignore, but the press are still choosing to ignore it. If the press wanted to really cover what's going on in Venezuela, they could make it visible to the rest of us.

theprestige 4th June 2018 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garrison (Post 12315483)
Add in that Venezuela is not exactly a conducive environment for foreign media coverage and the lack of attention is unsurprising.

1. Find refugees outside of Venezuela.
2. Interview them about why they left Venezuela.
3. Publish the interviews.

Seems like some basic Journalism 101 to me.

And we know that investigative journalists will go to much greater lengths than that, to cover a story they believe deserves more coverage, even when -- especially when! -- someone else is trying to cover it up. If they believe the story deserves to be covered.

autumn1971 4th June 2018 03:10 PM

NPR has been covering the Venezuelan crisis pretty closely, although I can't recall hearing in-depth about the refugees specifically.

dudalb 5th June 2018 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ian Osborne (Post 12315203)
Where did it all go wrong for Venezuela? It used to be one of the strongest economies in South America.

I can tell you in two words: Hugo Chavez.

theprestige 5th June 2018 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12316688)
I can tell you in two words: Hugo Chavez.

That, and the 56% of Venezuelan voters who got him elected in 1998. Ironically:
Academic analysis of the election showed that Chávez's support had come primarily from the country's poor and "disenchanted middle class"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugo_C...#1998_election
When has a communist regime ever benefited the middle class? Talk about voting against interest.

Ziggurat 5th June 2018 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12316688)
I can tell you in two words: Hugo Chavez.

That can't possibly be right. Salon told me he was a miracle worker.

theprestige 5th June 2018 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ziggurat (Post 12316734)
That can't possibly be right. Salon told me he was a miracle worker.

Is it that trick where the magician makes the coin disappear?

Ron_Tomkins 5th June 2018 01:25 PM

Yup. A couple of my friends, who are amongst the last of my friends who still haven't left, are now finally leaving. People can only take with so much ****, abuse and delinquency for so long.

dudalb 5th June 2018 02:17 PM

And I note that the supporters of Hugo we used to have here have been very quiet for quite a while...

dudalb 5th June 2018 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ziggurat (Post 12316734)
That can't possibly be right. Salon told me he was a miracle worker.

Nate Silver described Sirota, the writer of that article as...
Quote:

playing fast and loose with the truth and using some of the same demagogic precepts that the right wing he despises so much does

arthwollipot 5th June 2018 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 12314768)
It's 2%, not 0.02% if 700,000 have left this year.

If the 1.8 million are included in that number then it's closer to 8% over the last 2 1/2 years

Thanks for the correction. I always seem to lose a factor of ten when I calculate these things.

The Don 5th June 2018 11:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by arthwollipot (Post 12317340)
Thanks for the correction. I always seem to lose a factor of ten when I calculate these things.

Or even two factors of ten ;)

abaddon 5th June 2018 11:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theprestige (Post 12314950)
What exactly are "the US and its allies" supposed to do to stop the crisis in Venezuela?

The US has allies?


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