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-   -   National Emergency (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=334810)

acbytesla 14th February 2019 04:09 PM

National Emergency
 
It appears as if Trump is going to declare a National Emergency to get his wall. I'm confident that the courts will rule this does not constitute an emergency. But no question, this will be a Constitutional crisis as the power of the purse belongs to Congress.

Trump and the GOP are being shortsighted if they allow this opening of Pandora's box where POTUS can declare what he pleases as an emergency. What's to stop future President's from banning guns based on that it constitutes a national health emergency?
Or implementing environmental laws based on the fact that global warming constitutes an "emergency?

Where does it end?

William Parcher 14th February 2019 04:17 PM

My prediction was that he would continue to shut down government until he gets the wall. He would shut it down multiple times if that is what is required to get the wall.

Or maybe he does try the National Emergency and then if that's rejected he goes back to shutting down.

Skeptic Ginger 14th February 2019 04:18 PM

How can you tell this is any different from his ranting about declaring an emergency for the last few months?

crescent 14th February 2019 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 12601122)
My prediction was that he would continue to shut down government until he gets the wall. He would shut it down multiple times if that is what is required to get the wall.

Or maybe he does try the National Emergency and then if that's rejected he goes back to shutting down.

If he signs the budget then things are funded through the end of September. He would not be able to have a shutdown until then, regardless of how the national emergency works out.

dudalb 14th February 2019 04:23 PM

Cause it's not clear he is not getting the fence money from congress,and not to declare the state of emergency would him look like he is weak and has thrown in the towel,and that might finally do some real damage to his base.

William Parcher 14th February 2019 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crescent (Post 12601130)
If he signs the budget then things are funded through the end of September. He would not be able to have a shutdown until then, regardless of how the national emergency works out.

My prediction was that he would not sign and then do another shutdown. So yeah, if I'm right then we will have another shutdown starting next week.

William Parcher 14th February 2019 04:33 PM

I hope that my prediction is wrong because I don't want more shutdowns and I don't want a wall.

acbytesla 14th February 2019 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 12601122)
My prediction was that he would continue to shut down government until he gets the wall. He would shut it down multiple times if that is what is required to get the wall.

Or maybe he does try the National Emergency and then if that's rejected he goes back to shutting down.

He CANT just shut it down. It doesn't work that way.

JoeMorgue 14th February 2019 04:45 PM

//Moved from other thread//

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12601137)
The emergencies he declared before were local and related to natural disasters;this is a lot different.

No a National Emergency is completely different from a State of Emergency. There's never been a National Emergency declared over a natural disaster.

Trump has issued 3 National Emergency declarations in his Presidency, all are still in affect.

On December 20, 2017 - Blocking the Property of Persons Involved in Serious Human Rights Abuse or Corruption (Executive Order 13818)[100] Imposed sanctions due to the Rohingya conflict in Myanmar, specifically against general Maung Maung Soe.

September 12, 2018 - Imposing Certain Sanctions in the Event of Foreign Interference in a United States Election (Executive Order 13848)

November 27, 2018 -Blocking Property of Certain Persons Contributing to the Situation in Nicaragua (Executive Order 13851) Announces certain sanctions against current and former Daniel Ortega government officials engaging in human rights abuse or corruption.

Again in total 31 of the 58 National Emergencies ever declared are still in effect (and 4 more seem to be in this weird "not in effect but we never actually officially rescinded them" state)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._United_States

crescent 14th February 2019 04:48 PM

I'll try again.

The government budget expires about 29 hours from now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 12601122)
Or maybe he does try the National Emergency and then if that's rejected he goes back to shutting down.

A declaration of National Emergency would be presumed valid (legally) until proven otherwise. If there is enough doubt to convince a judge, the judge can implement a stay of the declaration.

In your scenario, all of that would have to happen within the next 29 hours.

If he does not declare the National Emergency before then, there will be no time to petition a court. There would be no way for him to judge the failure or success of the Emergency declaration before the budget expires.

All of the reports have stated that he will sign the budget and declare victory through the Emergency. He might do them both more or less at the same time.

The Shrike 14th February 2019 04:59 PM

Absolute disgrace to be clearing that big swath through those floodplain forests along the Lower Rio Grande. The heavy equipment down there now? That's the national emergency.

dudalb 14th February 2019 05:01 PM

Remember this:

"Emergency! Emergency! Everybody to be getting off street!".

acbytesla 14th February 2019 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12601186)
Remember this:

"Emergency! Emergency! Everybody to be getting off street!".

Totally apropos. Never forget, the Russians are coming!

William Parcher 14th February 2019 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Shrike (Post 12601183)
Absolute disgrace to be clearing that big swath through those floodplain forests along the Lower Rio Grande. The heavy equipment down there now? That's the national emergency.

I think the wall is an ecological disaster. For many animals it's a barrier like none other. The ocelots and jaguars can no longer move between the countries.

William Parcher 14th February 2019 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crescent (Post 12601172)
I'll try again.

The government budget expires about 29 hours from now.



A declaration of National Emergency would be presumed valid (legally) until proven otherwise. If there is enough doubt to convince a judge, the judge can implement a stay of the declaration.

In your scenario, all of that would have to happen within the next 29 hours.

If he does not declare the National Emergency before then, there will be no time to petition a court. There would be no way for him to judge the failure or success of the Emergency declaration before the budget expires.

All of the reports have stated that he will sign the budget and declare victory through the Emergency. He might do them both more or less at the same time.

My original and still standing prediction is that he will not sign the budget tomorrow and government will shut down again.

newyorkguy 14th February 2019 05:11 PM

USA Today reported about three hours ago:
Quote:

President Donald Trump will declare a national emergency to speed up funding for his proposed wall on the U.S.-Mexican border, but experts said the move would create a legal morass that could take until the middle of next year to resolve. The White House announced Thursday that Trump will make the move that he'd suggested for weeks. Link
This is what Donnie said:
Quote:

"What will happen? I'll be sued. It'll be brought to the 9th Circuit. We'll probably lose there, too," Trump said. "And then hopefully we'll win in the Supreme Court."

acbytesla 14th February 2019 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 12601196)
My original and still standing prediction is that he will not sign the budget tomorrow and government will shut down again.

If he does, he will just prove he's an idiot and a glutton for punishment.

Belz... 14th February 2019 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by acbytesla (Post 12601112)
What's to stop future President's from banning guns based on that it constitutes a national health emergency?
Or implementing environmental laws based on the fact that global warming constitutes an "emergency?

The fact that the President doesn't pass laws, primarily.

newyorkguy 14th February 2019 05:18 PM

Pelosi doesn't like it, calling it an "end run around Congress." She also said:
Quote:

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Thursday issued a warning to Republicans poised to support President Trump's decision to declare a national emergency at the southern border: the next Democratic president, she said, could do the same on guns. Link

acbytesla 14th February 2019 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by newyorkguy (Post 12601202)
USA Today reported about three hours ago:

Quote:

President Donald Trump will declare a national emergency to speed up funding for his proposed wall on the U.S.-Mexican border, but experts said the move would create a legal morass that could take until the middle of next year to resolve. The White House announced Thursday that Trump will make the move that he'd suggested for weeks. Link
This is what Donnie said:

Quote:

What will happen? I'll be sued. It'll be brought to the 9th Circuit. We'll probably lose there, too," Trump said. "And then hopefully we'll win in the Supreme Court."
I'm telling you all again, this is theater. Trump understands the law, but doesn't want to look bad. He CANNOT shut the government down again. That was a disaster.
He also KNOWS the courts will say no. But it's the optics he cares about. This way he can declare victory and keep blaming everyone else. He can get the crazies off his back and can even use this to rally them.

dudalb 14th February 2019 05:22 PM

Now we find out if the Republicans really love the constitution as much as they claim too, or if they are willing to sell it out for some temporary political gains. I am afraid it is going to be the latter.
I have deceded that the GOP, as it now exists,is as much as clear and present danger to Consituional Government in America as Trump.

acbytesla 14th February 2019 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Belz... (Post 12601204)
The fact that the President doesn't pass laws, primarily.

Tell that to Trump and the GOP.

dudalb 14th February 2019 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by acbytesla (Post 12601212)
I'm telling you all again, this is theater. Trump understands the law, but doesn't want to look bad. He CANNOT shut the government down again. That was a disaster.
He also KNOWS the courts will say no. But it's the optics he cares about. This way he can declare victory and keep blaming everyone else. He can get the crazies off his back and can even use this to rally them.

And you don't get why a President even trying this is dangerous to Democracy in America.

Norman Alexander 14th February 2019 05:26 PM

If he does this, it may not get to court at all. Congress may well override him if enough Republicans see the writing on the wall and don't want to see their careers die in a filthy ditch with Donny. Pelosi has given them the heads-up now.

So to go to court, he would have to take it there himself, and argue that there WAS an "emergency" big enough for him to unilaterally override Congress. And I don't think Donny has much of a chance there, even with Drunky McRapeface on his side.

acbytesla 14th February 2019 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 12601216)
And you don't get why a President even trying this is dangerous to Democracy in America.

I get it. I don't like it one bit. But perhaps I'm a little to optimistic. I remember what happened with Harry Truman.

William Parcher 14th February 2019 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by acbytesla (Post 12601203)
If he does, he will just prove he's an idiot and a glutton for punishment.

In post #8 you said that he can't shut the government down.

acbytesla 14th February 2019 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Norman Alexander (Post 12601220)
If he does this, it may not get to court at all. Congress may well override him if enough Republicans see the writing on the wall and don't want to see their careers die in a filthy ditch with Donny. Pelosi has given them the heads-up now.

So to go to court, he would have to take it there himself, and argue that there WAS an "emergency" big enough for him to unilaterally override Congress. And I don't think Donny has much of a chance there, even with Drunky McRapeface on his side.

No, you misunderstand. The President cannot authorize spending. That HAS to come from Congress. They appropriate funds. However, there is money in the Defense budget that can be used for a National Emergency.

By using those funds for this, Trump is going around Congress and the Constitution.

acbytesla 14th February 2019 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William Parcher (Post 12601227)
In post #8 you said that he can't shut the government down.

There are specific times when there is no budget or operating under a CR or raising the debt limit where Congress can play this game. Now would be one of those times. But 5 months from now won't be.

Tero 14th February 2019 05:35 PM

Aw, I wanted him to grab the CA and Puerto Rico disaster money and get into real trouble.

Congress needs to get his signature on the budget and only then act.

eerok 14th February 2019 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by acbytesla (Post 12601212)
I'm telling you all again, this is theater. Trump understands the law, but doesn't want to look bad. He CANNOT shut the government down again. That was a disaster.
He also KNOWS the courts will say no. But it's the optics he cares about. This way he can declare victory and keep blaming everyone else. He can get the crazies off his back and can even use this to rally them.

I think you're right. More accurately, I hope you're right.

This smells like a stunt to me, just like the wall in general.

dudalb 14th February 2019 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Norman Alexander (Post 12601220)
If he does this, it may not get to court at all. Congress may well override him if enough Republicans see the writing on the wall and don't want to see their careers die in a filthy ditch with Donny. Pelosi has given them the heads-up now.

So to go to court, he would have to take it there himself, and argue that there WAS an "emergency" big enough for him to unilaterally override Congress. And I don't think Donny has much of a chance there, even with Drunky McRapeface on his side.

IMHO, this is a defining moment for a lot of Republicans. What Trump is doing goes against standard Conservative doctrine:That for a long time the Presidency has gathered simply too much power for itself, well beyond what the Writers of the Consituion intended.(A statement I agree with). Now they are faced with the choice of sticking to principal or throwing principle out the window for temporary political gain. McConnell has made his choice:The hell with the Constituion. Now it is up for the other Republcians to make their choice. I am not very optimistic. The lust for power has totally corrupted the GOP.
That great line from "A Man For All Seasons" comes to mind:
"To gain the world and lose your soul is bad enough..but to sell your soul for Wales?".

dudalb 14th February 2019 05:52 PM

Good Anlysis from CNN:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/12/polit...gop/index.html

Anybody who thinks that the Dems in the House are not going to toss that grenade is living in La La Land.

Stacyhs 14th February 2019 06:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by acbytesla (Post 12601203)
If he does, he will just prove he's an idiot and a glutton for punishment.

Again?

Stacyhs 14th February 2019 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by acbytesla (Post 12601212)
I'm telling you all again, this is theater. Trump understands the law, but doesn't want to look bad. He CANNOT shut the government down again. That was a disaster.
He also KNOWS the courts will say no. But it's the optics he cares about. This way he can declare victory and keep blaming everyone else. He can get the crazies off his back and can even use this to rally them.

I agree. Trump knows his base really well. But then again, they're not that difficult to understand...just play to their fears.

CapelDodger 14th February 2019 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by acbytesla (Post 12601212)
I'm telling you all again, this is theater. Trump understands the law, but doesn't want to look bad. He CANNOT shut the government down again. That was a disaster.
He also KNOWS the courts will say no. But it's the optics he cares about. This way he can declare victory and keep blaming everyone else. He can get the crazies off his back and can even use this to rally them.

The operative word being "rally", because it's that campaign rally buzz Trump really craves. This is his easy escape from politics, which confuses and bores him, and gets him back to simplistic sloganising before an adoring audience.

Meadmaker 14th February 2019 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by newyorkguy (Post 12601209)
Pelosi doesn't like it, calling it an "end run around Congress." She also said:


Quote:

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Thursday issued a warning to Republicans poised to support President Trump's decision to declare a national emergency at the southern border: the next Democratic president, she said, could do the same on guns. Link

Oh...my....God.


So, the President says he's going to do an end run around Congress in order to keep out illegal aliens......and Nancy Pelosi responded by saying, "Oh, yeah. Well if we get into office, we're going to do an end run around Congress so we can take away your guns."

Thanks, Nancy. That really helps.

Belz... 14th February 2019 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by acbytesla (Post 12601215)
Tell that to Trump and the GOP.

No, I mean he literally can't pass laws.

Skeptic Ginger 14th February 2019 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by newyorkguy (Post 12601209)
Pelosi doesn't like it, calling it an "end run around Congress." She also said:

Well that complicates things. :thumbsup:

Foolmewunz 14th February 2019 06:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eerok (Post 12601235)
I think you're right. More accurately, I hope you're right.

This smells like a stunt to me, just like the wall in general.

I agree. Trump has the same opinion of his base as Lonesome Rhodes did. He wants to go back to his original plan in December.... Give up, go to Mar A Lago, claim victory. But the alt-right kaboshed that so he had to "Go To Shutdown Tough Guy" mode and got his butt whipped then, too. Now he's going to revert to Give Up Go to Mar A Lago Claim Victory. He will declare an emergency and then count on it getting blocked. He can then get back to his first love, campaigning, and claim that he tried but was blocked by evil Democrats. He's got the sound bytes ready. "Finish That Wall".... we already did most of it according to Trump math. Dems want to let murdering terrorist rapists into your Sunday School picnics!

If you want to see funny, the Dems should do a dog-chasing-a-car bit and not file suit against the emergency and watch while the Republicans try to figure out what to do next because they are completely ill-prepared to take even a dime from any other funds. Maybe they could attach Steven Miller's salary and use that to pay for the wall and announce that all the billionaires they've given JTUF(jobs they're unsuited for) will pay for it. Hell, they bought their cabinet and WH positions with contributions. Might as well donate to their rabid base directly.

Foolmewunz 14th February 2019 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Meadmaker (Post 12601288)
Oh...my....God.


So, the President says he's going to do an end run around Congress in order to keep out illegal aliens......and Nancy Pelosi responded by saying, "Oh, yeah. Well if we get into office, we're going to do an end run around Congress so we can take away your guns."

Thanks, Nancy. That really helps.

Yes, it helps. The pros on the Republican side are worried precisely about this. If Trump's scenario plays out and he gets blocked in the lower courts but supported by the Supremes, you have precedent and case law on your side. How hard do you think it would be to get your Democratically appointed Surgeon General and Sec HHS to promote the concept that gun deaths are a national crisis? With the Supremes having decided that the POTUS has those powers, President O'Rourke is free to do that. Don't need no pesky congress critters, just decide to spend the money for maintaining the highways out of the grain belt on gun control. Hey, it's a tough job, but it's an emergency after all and someone's got to do it. Who knew usurping the powers of the Legislative branch would be so easy?

Just as the Dems didn't think through the later repercussions of "the nuclear option", the GOP is in dire fear of what a populist Democrat with 55% support of the populace could pencil-whip through the Oval Office.


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