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-   -   Trump's Coup d'état. (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=347882)

Mader Levap 11th November 2020 09:38 AM

Trump's Coup d'état.
 
Someone wanted it, so here it is.

We already have republiloons behaving like their fuhrer won second term, screaming unsubstantiated allegations of fraud and peddling ridiculous conspiracy theories. Crazies send death threats to officials involved in elections. What's next?

Coup is logical endgame for wanna-be authoritarian party working hard on removing "wanna-be" part.

How likely it is? Why they would do that right now, just for Trump? If it happens, how republicans would pull it off (literal military coup, SCOTUS shenanigans, something else)? What reaction it would cause? How it all ends?
Or maybe it is just ploy for those two last senate seats in Georgia and nothing serious comes out of it?

Note that while SCOTUS giving presidency to Trump technically is not coup*, nevertheless it is within topic of this thread, since a lot of people would consider it coup and transformation of USA into rightwing authoritarian state.

* According to certain local rethuglicans here, so take it with entire moon of salt.

d4m10n 11th November 2020 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mader Levap (Post 13290885)
How likely it is?

Hard to say, but the ongoing silence of most elected Republicans and the complicity of appointed toadies officials like Pompeo makes it seem increasingly likely from where I'm sitting.

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE

The Great Zaganza 11th November 2020 09:47 AM

Quote:

Treason doth never prosper, what's the reason? For if it prosper, none dare call it Treason.
- John Harington

psionl0 11th November 2020 09:55 AM

Quote:

"As we said on July 19th, the American people will decide this election. And the United States government is perfectly capable of escorting trespassers out of the White House,” campaign spokesperson Andrew Bates said in a statement.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/liv...af1b75f623ea73

Olmstead 11th November 2020 09:57 AM

He would if he could.

Can he?

dmaker 11th November 2020 10:08 AM

One thing the last few years, and more specifically the last week, have done is to help me truly understand some aspects of history better.

As a student of history, I have always grappled with trying to get a more visceral feel for how certain things could have come to pass. For example, the rise of fascism in Europe. I can read the texts and understand the larger forces at work, but because the resulting society and regime were often so repugnant to my modern liberal mindset, it was always very difficult to come away with anything more than an academic feel for the facts, but little actual understanding of how those times must have felt to those living in them. Excellent books like They Thought They Were Free:The Germans, 1933-45 (Milton Mayer) come about as close to that slippery understanding than any other that I have read, but still I was always left feeling that I didn't truly understand how people let it happen.

Recent events in the US have closed that academic vs real world feel gap. Now I understand better how regimes like that start to rise.

It's pretty scary.

The Atheist 11th November 2020 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mader Levap (Post 13290885)
Crazies send death threats to officials involved in elections. What's next?

1 - Continue to refuse to accept the result.
2 - Issue executive order banning the Electoral College from gathering.
3 - Wait for riots to start.
4 - Engage military to quell riots.
5 - Declare Martial Law.
6 - Accept Putin's congratulations.

Ta-da!

cosmicaug 11th November 2020 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13291001)
1 - Continue to refuse to accept the result.
2 - Issue executive order banning the Electoral College from gathering.
3 - Wait for riots to start.
4 - Engage military to quell riots.

How could that happen? The top people at the Defense Department have made it pretty clear that they are not behind anything like that.

Oh, wait....

dudalb 11th November 2020 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13291001)
1 - Continue to refuse to accept the result.
2 - Issue executive order banning the Electoral College from gathering.
3 - Wait for riots to start.
4 - Engage military to quell riots.
5 - Declare Martial Law.
6 - Accept Putin's congratulations.

Ta-da!

Highly unlikely scenario.
Not that Trump would not like to do it, but he could not.
For one thing, he cannot roder the EC not to meet.

dudalb 11th November 2020 11:01 AM

I think ww are into Disaster Porn here.

Cavemonster 11th November 2020 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 13291043)
I think ww are into Disaster Porn here.

Probably.
But we've had four years of "Trump can't do that, it's illegal!" And every time, the fact that he controls the executive branch and there is no mechanism to enforce the law means he CAN do that.

So at this point, if we can agree he wants to stage a coup, it's reasonable to ask the question very specifically of who would stop him? If it relies on action from within the executive branch, what's to stop that action from being up to Trump loyalists?

If he can ignore subpoenas, and court orders and laws, who are the individuals who physically remove him, and what stops him from making sure those individuals and their bosses are more loyal to him than the law?

Vixen 11th November 2020 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dmaker (Post 13290943)
One thing the last few years, and more specifically the last week, have done is to help me truly understand some aspects of history better.

As a student of history, I have always grappled with trying to get a more visceral feel for how certain things could have come to pass. For example, the rise of fascism in Europe. I can read the texts and understand the larger forces at work, but because the resulting society and regime were often so repugnant to my modern liberal mindset, it was always very difficult to come away with anything more than an academic feel for the facts, but little actual understanding of how those times must have felt to those living in them. Excellent books like They Thought They Were Free:The Germans, 1933-45 (Milton Mayer) come about as close to that slippery understanding than any other that I have read, but still I was always left feeling that I didn't truly understand how people let it happen.

Recent events in the US have closed that academic vs real world feel gap. Now I understand better how regimes like that start to rise.

It's pretty scary.

Looking at the other end of the spectrum, if we look at the Bolshevik Revolution, 1917, what made it successful was (a) having the masses on your side, (b) having the army on side and (c) strong leadership ready with slogans and propaganda.

Often, it involves arresting the current incumbent (in this case it would be Joe Biden) and their officers, putting them all on trial and finding them guilty of acts against the state. A military dictator is put in place, so we might see Trump received the title of General, as he sends in the National Guard to quell the inevitable uprising by angry disenfranchised citizens, with the Proud Boys and the gun lobby MAGA mob as vigilantes. We saw Trump defending these types.

d4m10n 11th November 2020 11:22 AM

I've spent a little energy trying to envision how the Trumpers think they can pull this off. From what I can tell—after sitting through the infamous Four Seasons press briefing—the plan is to overturn the results in GA with a hand recount and then overturn PA & MI by somehow getting the courts to declare tens of thousands of votes invalid in major metropolitan centers such as Philly and Detroit.

ETA: If you want "disaster porn" just imagine how the residents of those cities would respond to judicial disfranchisement overturning the statewide result.

Chanakya 11th November 2020 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 13291043)
I think ww are into Disaster Porn here.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cavemonster (Post 13291062)
Probably.
But we've had four years of "Trump can't do that, it's illegal!" And every time, the fact that he controls the executive branch and there is no mechanism to enforce the law means he CAN do that.

So at this point, if we can agree he wants to stage a coup, it's reasonable to ask the question very specifically of who would stop him? If it relies on action from within the executive branch, what's to stop that action from being up to Trump loyalists?

If he can ignore subpoenas, and court orders and laws, who are the individuals who physically remove him, and what stops him from making sure those individuals and their bosses are more loyal to him than the law?


This.

Agreed, this is way far-fetched. But then, so much that everyone thought was simply impossible turned out to be entirely possible.

Fingers crossed! This isn't over until it's actually over.

Vixen 11th November 2020 11:29 AM

1 Attachment(s)
The latest meme doing the rounds on social media.

timhau 11th November 2020 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vixen (Post 13291067)
Looking at the other end of the spectrum, if we look at the Bolshevik Revolution, 1917, what made it successful was (a) having the masses on your side, (b) having the army on side and (c) strong leadership ready with slogans and propaganda.

Actually, they didn't have (a), had most of (b), and (c) at least when it comes to propaganda. What was most impotrant was their willingness to do **** that the other factions wouldn't.

dudalb 11th November 2020 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by d4m10n (Post 13291082)
I've spent a little energy trying to envision how the Trumpers think they can pull this off. From what I can tell—after sitting through the infamous Four Seasons press briefing—the plan is to overturn the results in GA with a hand recount and then overturn PA & MI by somehow getting the courts to declare tens of thousands of votes invalid in major metropolitan centers such as Philly and Detroit.

ETA: If you want "disaster porn" just imagine how the residents of those cities would respond to judicial disfranchisement overturning the statewide result.

That is slightly more plausible then the scenario that The Atheist put out, which has several WTF moments, and clearly come sfrom somebody who has little understanding of how the Amrrican system works and who clearly hates the US.

dirtywick 11th November 2020 11:35 AM

Restructuring the pentagon, CIA, and FBI with loyalist is troubling.

But there are many members of government that have indicated they will respect the results of the election. But equally troubling is those who say the "legal" votes and things of that nature.

Point is, Trump hasn't been acting like he's going to acknowledge the results of the election, but he can't do it alone either

Cain 11th November 2020 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by d4m10n (Post 13291082)
I've spent a little energy trying to envision how the Trumpers think they can pull this off. From what I can tell—after sitting through the infamous Four Seasons press briefing—the plan is to overturn the results in GA with a hand recount and then overturn PA & MI by somehow getting the courts to declare tens of thousands of votes invalid in major metropolitan centers such as Philly and Detroit.

ETA: If you want "disaster porn" just imagine how the residents of those cities would respond to judicial disfranchisement overturning the statewide result.

Anti-democratic forces have institutions in place -- namely, the Electoral College. There were rumblings prior to the election of installing faithless electors. (In fairness, the Trump administration is so lazy and inefficient that planning probably never rose above Sharpie on cocktail napkins.)

I saw an article recently titled something along the lines of "Trump Decapitates Civilian Leadership at Pentagon." Another commenter says it's probably a cover-up rather than a coup (keeping certain dealings secret and preventing access to the transition team).

As I said in another thread, an attempted coup might be one of the best things that could happen in the long-term because it would discredit Trump as a mainstream political force. Also, four years ago, I was promised outright fascism. A coup is extremely unlikely, but 1% threats need to be taken seriously if they're sufficiently, well, disastrous.

cosmicaug 11th November 2020 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vixen (Post 13291067)
Looking at the other end of the spectrum, if we look at the Bolshevik Revolution, 1917, what made it successful was (a) having the masses on your side, (b) having the army on side and (c) strong leadership ready with slogans and propaganda.

Often, it involves arresting the current incumbent (in this case it would be Joe Biden) and their officers, putting them all on trial and finding them guilty of acts against the state. A military dictator is put in place, so we might see Trump received the title of General, as he sends in the National Guard to quell the inevitable uprising by angry disenfranchised citizens, with the Proud Boys and the gun lobby MAGA mob as vigilantes. We saw Trump defending these types.

I'm greatly relieved! Thank dog that Trump has never talked about prosecuting his political rivals and that we don't have anyone in his cabinet who has talked about executing Trump's enemies for treason!

JoeMorgue 11th November 2020 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 13291043)
I think ww are into Disaster Porn here.

Dude you've been all over the threads creaming yourself over a Civil War happening any day now for the last four years.

If this is Disaster Porn you've been deep into Disaster Snuff.



As to the question in the OP my answer is the same it pretty much always has been.

No I don't think he can succeed, but I'm not particularly enjoying watching him see how close he can get.

And the closer he gets the more damage to the reputation of the United States as a Democracy he does.

And I have no intention of watching Trump see how far he can go in the hope that we'll recognize it going to far before the point of no return if we're wrong.

Vixen 11th November 2020 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by timhau (Post 13291092)
Actually, they didn't have (a), had most of (b), and (c) at least when it comes to propaganda. What was most impotrant was their willingness to do **** that the other factions wouldn't.

Well they had the masses in Leningrad.

Vixen 11th November 2020 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cosmicaug (Post 13291163)
I'm greatly relieved! Thank dog that Trump has never talked about prosecuting his political rivals and that we don't have anyone in his cabinet who has talked about executing Trump's enemies for treason!

Obviously Russia 1917 was largely a feudal monarchy. However, if you want to study how coups take place then there will be common themes. A large theme being cheating and not following the rules.

Now that there will be a manual recount in Georgia, who's to say a bundle of 20,000 ballot papers doesn't suddenly finds its way into the count, in Trump's favour? Biden and co arrested and charged with fraud, National Guard in place in every metropolis to quell any rioting and looting...do you think Trump would draw the line at cheating...? Or making false arrests...?

thaiboxerken 11th November 2020 01:14 PM

Trump is installing loyalists in top positions of the military and Pentagon.

JoeMorgue 11th November 2020 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaiboxerken (Post 13291253)
Trump is installing loyalists in top positions of the military and Pentagon.

Ah but you see, the excuse goes, he's not in his heart of heart really meaning to launch a coup, he's just doing exactly someone who wanted to plan a coup would be doing.

Or he's just pretending to plan a coup to tweak the libs.

Or he's planning a coup but the Dems would do the same thing in his position so that makes it okay.

Or he's planning a coup but we're being dramatic about it.

Vixen 11th November 2020 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaiboxerken (Post 13291253)
Trump is installing loyalists in top positions of the military and Pentagon.

Including a couple of raging known luna extremists.

d4m10n 11th November 2020 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 13291094)
That is slightly more plausible then the scenario that The Atheist put out...

But wait, there's more.

If Trump cannot prevail in lawsuits in PA and other swing states, he can perhaps convince GOP-majority state legislatures to appoint slates of electors in lieu of the ones chosen by voters.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk

dmaker 11th November 2020 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cain (Post 13291116)
As I said in another thread, an attempted coup might be one of the best things that could happen in the long-term because it would discredit Trump as a mainstream political force. .

Didn't seem to phase Hitler.

CORed 11th November 2020 01:20 PM

The key question is just how far he will push it. As it is, even if he ultimately fails, he has already convinced a significant number of people that Biden stole the election and this will undermine his legitimacy and ability to govern. I find the scenarios of an actual miltary coup less likely to succeed, and I also think that he may not try because he is fundamentally a coward, and even in his deranged mind has to realize that failing at a military coup will end with him ether dead or in a prison cell, likely for the rest of his life. OTOH, I can't completely discount the idea that he really is crazy enough to go that far. His firings of the Defense Department officials certainly suggests that he's planning a coup, or planning on deploying the military against protesters.

The way I think that this will play out is that he will push the lawsuits, and possibly efforts to hijack electors through Republican legislators as far as possible. There is also the possibility of preventing electors from being seated and throwing the election into the House of Representatives, which, because they will vote by state delegation would likely put Trump in.

What I think will happen is that he will try all of the quasi-legal avenues, refuse to cooperate in the transition, and leave the White House on Jan. 20, still claiming the election was stolen from him, and starting his run for 2024.

Long term, what scares me even more than a Trump run in 2024 is that the Republicans will try again, with a more competent authoritarian. They have proven that they will support an authoritarian, and I think what has (probably) saved us this time is the overall incompetence of Trump.

Frankly, if Trump does manage to pull this off, I may be among the mob setting fires and breaking windows.

Vixen 11th November 2020 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CORed (Post 13291264)
<snip>

Long term, what scares me even more than a Trump run in 2024 is that the Republicans will try again, with a more competent authoritarian. They have proven that they will support an authoritarian, and I think what has (probably) saved us this time is the overall incompetence of Trump.

Frankly, if Trump does manage to pull this off, I may be among the mob setting fires and breaking windows.

Look up Section §2383 of the US constitution.

dmaker 11th November 2020 01:28 PM

"Whoever incites, sets on foot, assists, or engages in any rebellion or insurrection against the authority of the United States or the laws thereof, or gives aid or comfort thereto, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both; and shall be incapable of holding any office under the United States."

Nice. How great would it be if Biden's AG were to gather enough evidence to make something like that stick? Americans would never have to contend with Trump in office ever again.

portlandatheist 11th November 2020 01:32 PM

Some may enjoy listening to the Radio lab episode called "What If?"
Quote:

There’s plenty of speculation about what Donald Trump might do in the wake of the election. Would he dispute the results if he loses? Would he simply refuse to leave office, or even try to use the military to maintain control? Last summer, Rosa Brooks got together a team of experts and political operatives from both sides of the aisle to ask a slightly different question. Rather than arguing about whether he’d do those things, they dug into what exactly would happen if he did. Part war game part choose your own adventure, Rosa’s Transition Integrity Project doesn’t give us any predictions, and it isn’t a referendum on Trump. Instead, it’s a deeply illuminating stress test on our laws, our institutions, and on the commitment to democracy written into the constitution.
Some of these scenarios are already in play. One scenario is faithless electors. it is an interesting thought experiment.

Skeptic Ginger 11th November 2020 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vixen (Post 13291245)
Well they had the masses in Leningrad.

Did they in Germany?

Skeptic Ginger 11th November 2020 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by d4m10n (Post 13291257)
But wait, there's more.

If Trump cannot prevail in lawsuits in PA and other swing states, he can perhaps convince GOP-majority state legislatures to appoint slates of electors in lieu of the ones chosen by voters.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk

Been discussed. Name a state and let's look closer. PA legislators have already said, no they would not.

Trebuchet 11th November 2020 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cain (Post 13291116)

As I said in another thread, an attempted coup might be one of the best things that could happen in the long-term because it would discredit Trump as a mainstream political force. Also, four years ago, I was promised outright fascism. A coup is extremely unlikely, but 1% threats need to be taken seriously if they're sufficiently, well, disastrous.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dmaker (Post 13291262)
Didn't seem to phase Hitler.

Trump doesn't drink beer.

Skeptic Ginger 11th November 2020 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by portlandatheist (Post 13291279)
Some may enjoy listening to the Radio lab episode called "What If?"

Some of these scenarios are already in play. One scenario is faithless electors. it is an interesting thought experiment.

Not sure why these things keep getting brought up. SCOTUS already ruled, faithless electors are not legal.

Thermal 11th November 2020 01:44 PM

I sleep well at night knowing nothing will happen except some comical posturing. DC is full of politicians and Intelligence communities that would not let the crazy off the leash under any circumstances. Secret Service, military, et al would not allow a coup or anything to go down before the legal means of removing a loon were executed.

In reality, President Trump's staff in the West Wing will convince him he can't win this particular battle and to go away and cry elsewhere.

d4m10n 11th November 2020 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 13291299)
Not sure why these things keep getting brought up. SCOTUS already ruled, faithless electors are not legal.

Not quite what SCOTUS ruled. What they said was that individual states can make them illegal if they so choose.

https://www.scotusblog.com/2020/07/o...-elector-laws/

It is of some relevance here that neither GA nor PA have laws which would punish or replace a faithless electorWP.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 13291294)
PA legislators have already said, no they would not.

Happy to assume the Democratic state legislators actually meant what they said, but those who follow Trump's banner can reasonably be expected to emulate him. It makes rather little sense to take them at their word.

JoeMorgue 11th November 2020 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 13291299)
Not sure why these things keep getting brought up. SCOTUS already ruled, faithless electors are not legal.

Oh my God not again. How many times are you going to repeat this lie?

SCOTUS said nothing of the sort. Faithless Electors are not legal if the state they are in says so and almost none of the states are saying so. The SCOTUS ruling only said "States have the right to punish faithless electors if they want."

You're expecting this fantasy SCOTUS ruling that happened only in your head to save us and it's not the first time.

STOP SAYING THAT SCOTUS HAS RULED AGAINST FAITHLESS ELECTORS. It's highly dangerous misinformation right about now.

cosmicaug 11th November 2020 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CORed (Post 13291264)
The key question is just how far he will push it.

That's not a key question at all because we already know the answer. The answer is as far as he can.

The key question is how far can he push it?

The answer to that question does not depend on him alone because he can't push for much of anything by himself. Disturbingly, he's not alone. How far are his collaborators willing to go?

Quote:

Originally Posted by CORed (Post 13291264)
As it is, even if he ultimately fails, he has already convinced a significant number of people that Biden stole the election and this will undermine his legitimacy and ability to govern. I find the scenarios of an actual miltary coup less likely to succeed, and I also think that he may not try because he is fundamentally a coward, and even in his deranged mind has to realize that failing at a military coup will end with him ether dead or in a prison cell, likely for the rest of his life. OTOH, I can't completely discount the idea that he really is crazy enough to go that far. His firings of the Defense Department officials certainly suggests that he's planning a coup, or planning on deploying the military against protesters.

The way I think that this will play out is that he will push the lawsuits, and possibly efforts to hijack electors through Republican legislators as far as possible. There is also the possibility of preventing electors from being seated and throwing the election into the House of Representatives, which, because they will vote by state delegation would likely put Trump in.

What I think will happen is that he will try all of the quasi-legal avenues, refuse to cooperate in the transition, and leave the White House on Jan. 20, still claiming the election was stolen from him, and starting his run for 2024.

So many things are plausible. No one knows where we are going. We have a shameful spectacle that will probably end up with Biden swearing in at the appointed time but there's no guarantee. Even then, much damage is being and will be done.

Quote:

Originally Posted by CORed (Post 13291264)
Long term, what scares me even more than a Trump run in 2024 is that the Republicans will try again, with a more competent authoritarian. They have proven that they will support an authoritarian, and I think what has (probably) saved us this time is the overall incompetence of Trump.

The "long term" could be as soon as 2024.

Quote:

Originally Posted by CORed (Post 13291264)
Frankly, if Trump does manage to pull this off, I may be among the mob setting fires and breaking windows.

It would be sad if the Four Seasons Total Landscaping gang managed to pull this off. It's sad that it is even a question.


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