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-   -   The Marjorie Taylor Greene thread. (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=347945)

Skeptic Ginger 27th April 2021 09:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy (Post 13466079)
Those numbers don't seem relevant. In the first place, you're are citing a subset of evangelicals. Not sure why you think "protestant" is relevant. That neither strictly evangelical nor all of Christians. So I don't see the point.


I didn't say all Christians were Evangelical. I said that half of US religious people are Evangelical/Fundamentalist.

But that is not true.

I posted what the cited source said. Feel free to cite something supporting your assertions.

Skeptic Ginger 27th April 2021 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevilsAdvocate (Post 13466089)
About half of religious people in the US are Protestants. About half of US Protestants are Evangelical/Fundamentalist. So Evangelicals/Fundamentalists are about 25% of religious people in the US. There is a bit of rounding there and different studies half slightly different numbers, so it is probably more like 30%. Could maybe be as high as 35%. Still quite a bit less than half.

This is a more rational assertion and the data I posted supports it.

RecoveringYuppy 27th April 2021 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 13466100)
But that is not true.

I posted what the cited source said. Feel free to cite something supporting your assertions.

I just explained how the article you cited supports that more than 44% of Christians are Evangelical/Fundamentalist.

Skeptic Ginger 27th April 2021 09:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy (Post 13466094)
Can you provide a cite for these numbers? I just cited numbers from the link that SG provided.....

No you didn't. Gawd knows what you were looking at on that web page.

RecoveringYuppy 27th April 2021 09:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 13466106)
No you didn't. Gawd knows what you were looking at on that web page.

I divided the percentage of Evangelicals by the percentage of Christians.

Skeptic Ginger 27th April 2021 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy (Post 13466115)
I divided the percentage of Evangelicals by the percentage of Christians.

With the numbers straight from the source: Total Protestants: 25.1% of people in the US identify as.

Of that total 16.2% identify as Evangelical.


There is no aditional math or division needed.

smartcooky 27th April 2021 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 13466074)
I agree with the bolded but they were a relatively small group.

As for the direction we are going, I posted a citation above where a current survey showed Dump losing adherents. He is no longer in power. His means of communication on social media is close to nil. He is no long the star in the room.


That may be so, but the underlying stuff that brought him to power; the racism, the far right philosophy, the white supremacism - that is all still there simmering below the surface.

In 2016 you got an unqualified, bumbling, failed businessman for a President, one who didn't really know how to be a leader beyond barking orders. He thought being President would give him the ability to do anything he wanted, get anything he wanted, and make others do what he wanted. It took him four years to take down the guard rails that prevented him from getting his way, and by then, his term was up, and it was too late.

Next time, you might not be so lucky, you might end up with a Ted Cruz or a Josh Hawley. Don't underestimate these two, they are smart, and politically savvy - they will have observed what Dump did that failed, and they won't repeat those mistakes... the guard rails will all be gone by the end of January.

RecoveringYuppy 27th April 2021 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 13466127)
With the numbers straight from the source: Total Protestants: 25.1% of people in the US identify as.

Of that total 16.2% identify as Evangelical.


There is no aditional math or division needed.

I don't care that you cited the correct value for the wrong numbers. BTW I'm assuming these are correct, since they don't matter, I don't care, and I didn't double check them.

Stacyhs 27th April 2021 10:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smartcooky (Post 13466133)
you might end up with a Ted Cruz or a Josh Hawley. .

Go to your room until you can learn how to behave in polite company!

smartcooky 27th April 2021 11:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stacyhs (Post 13466143)
Go to your room until you can learn how to behave in polite company!

Yes Mummy! https://www.dropbox.com/s/q39o64dld4...iley.gif?raw=1

MRC_Hans 28th April 2021 03:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smartcooky (Post 13466133)
That may be so, but the underlying stuff that brought him to power; the racism, the far right philosophy, the white supremacism - that is all still there simmering below the surface.

In 2016 you got an unqualified, bumbling, failed businessman for a President, one who didn't really know how to be a leader beyond barking orders. He thought being President would give him the ability to do anything he wanted, get anything he wanted, and make others do what he wanted. It took him four years to take down the guard rails that prevented him from getting his way, and by then, his term was up, and it was too late.

Next time, you might not be so lucky, you might end up with a Ted Cruz or a Josh Hawley. Don't underestimate these two, they are smart, and politically savvy - they will have observed what Dump did that failed, and they won't repeat those mistakes... the guard rails will all be gone by the end of January.

I'm not saying the situation is not problematic, but incompetence is not the only reason T**** did not get his way. In a well-consolidated democracy (and after all, that is what the USA remains), you can't just remove the guard rails. As he discovered, courts, even the ones he stacked himself, didn't just rule the way he wanted. Elections couldn't just be worked around. Civil servants knew the rules and played by them.

Hans

ponderingturtle 28th April 2021 06:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smartcooky (Post 13465766)
I fear they won't remain bumbling idiots for long.

It will not have gone unnoticed that the main reasons for so many of them getting caught was because they failed to hide their faces, they videoed themselves breaking the law, and then afterwards, openly bragged about what they did.

If there is another January 6 type event in the future, they won't make these particular mistakes again!

Yea because they thought it was a movie and once the people rise up and storm the government it just falls. Roll credits. Being totally out of touch with reality was a major part of the whole thing.

ponderingturtle 28th April 2021 06:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 13465852)
Because this:



It's a joke that there is any kind of force involved here. The people who broke into the Capitol, and failed BTW, were a rag-tag group of weekend warriors who have a much too high opinion of their 'pretend to be revolutionaries' games. They were accompanied by an army a cluster **** of complete idiots. And they were led by Dump who had a delusional vision that some army of the people was going to keep him in power.

And yet they were not lacking in military veterans or police officers.

ponderingturtle 28th April 2021 06:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 13465888)
Yeah...no. Not the least bit street smart.


So here's the thing with that.

History:
GOP fear-mongering and courting fanatical single issue voters since Reagan.

GOP gets the voters they wished for starting with the TEA Party.

It leads up to someone like Dump getting elected.

And that's where the whole thing fell apart.
Dump is an incompetent delusional person whose one redeeming skill is he's a very good conman.

It's that first part that is the problem for Dump. There is no there there behind the curtain.

If he had been a true Hitler-esque person we might have been in big trouble. If the GOP had succeeded in actually stealing the election we'd be in big trouble because 4 more years of Dump would have made a very big mess. Corruption which is already a serious problem would have been horrendous with a Dump second term.

Dump is delusional. He's not some fantastically skilled leader.

So was Hitler, he was not some brilliant mind, but a corrupt con man with certain notable delusions .

MRC_Hans 28th April 2021 07:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smartcooky (Post 13465766)
I fear they won't remain bumbling idiots for long.

It will not have gone unnoticed that the main reasons for so many of them getting caught was because they failed to hide their faces, they videoed themselves breaking the law, and then afterwards, openly bragged about what they did.

If there is another January 6 type event in the future, they won't make these particular mistakes again!

Well, presumably neither will the defenders, who also didn't seem to be well prepared for the situation. Notice that on the day of the inauguration, the precautions were of an entirely different class. It would have taken a regular military unit to breach them, and I suspect even that would have failed.

On Jan 6th there was a double surprise effect:

1) The defenders (for some strange reason) didn't see it coming.

2) The attackers basically didn't know what they were doing.

Neither of these is likely to happen again.

Hans

gnome 28th April 2021 07:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MRC_Hans (Post 13466351)

1) The defenders (for some strange reason) didn't see it coming.

2) The attackers basically didn't know what they were doing.

Neither of these is likely to happen again.

Hans

I think we are likely to find that #1 was simply untrue. I think they were hobbled. Not necessarily by some central mastermind--possibly by various people in positions of opportunity that were sympathetic to the attackers.

MRC_Hans 28th April 2021 07:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gnome (Post 13466371)
I think we are likely to find that #1 was simply untrue. I think they were hobbled. Not necessarily by some central mastermind--possibly by various people in positions of opportunity that were sympathetic to the attackers.

They may well have been. But I still don't think it will happen again.

Hans

Lurch 28th April 2021 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 13465869)
:dl:

I'm sorry. I don't mean to be mean but that might apply to 10% or less of those bumbling idiots.

Did you see the young woman who was shocked she had been pepper sprayed and pushed back out of the building because "it was a revolution, man" (or words to that effect)? She was truly dumbfounded by the events.

If you think about it, how would these idiots not have known they should hide their faces? Left leaning protestors and anarchists who were partaking in serious civil disobedience have known that since at least as far back as the J Edgar Hoover days, probably long before that.

They were stupid enough to believe they would succeed and become the new US government as if no one in the military would stop them.

And how stupid was the young woman who climbed through the Chamber door window and was immediately shot and killed? What did she think would happen? Guess we'll never know.

To your last question: White privilege. To your main point: White privilege. And well justified to a point. Imagine the bloodbath had the insurrectionists been BLM.

Now that these disgruntled whites fearful of demographic change know that their privilege will get them only so far, any future action will entail less stupidity.

To blithely dismiss initial bumbling efforts is to be blind to the terrible harm that can be wreaked by a passionate few.

Skeptic Ginger 28th April 2021 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smartcooky (Post 13466133)
That may be so, but the underlying stuff that brought him to power; the racism, the far right philosophy, the white supremacism - that is all still there simmering below the surface.

In 2016 you got an unqualified, bumbling, failed businessman for a President, one who didn't really know how to be a leader beyond barking orders. He thought being President would give him the ability to do anything he wanted, get anything he wanted, and make others do what he wanted. It took him four years to take down the guard rails that prevented him from getting his way, and by then, his term was up, and it was too late.

Next time, you might not be so lucky, you might end up with a Ted Cruz or a Josh Hawley. Don't underestimate these two, they are smart, and politically savvy - they will have observed what Dump did that failed, and they won't repeat those mistakes... the guard rails will all be gone by the end of January.

I'm not saying the world is magically safe and back in order. I'm saying at the moment the trend is not toward civil war.:rolleyes:

Skeptic Ginger 28th April 2021 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy (Post 13466137)
I don't care that you cited the correct value for the wrong numbers. BTW I'm assuming these are correct, since they don't matter, I don't care, and I didn't double check them.

I'm done with this stupid off-topic hill you insist on dying on. Go for it. :cool:

Skeptic Ginger 28th April 2021 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stacyhs (Post 13466143)
Go to your room until you can learn how to behave in polite company!

:D

Skeptic Ginger 28th April 2021 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ponderingturtle (Post 13466317)
And yet they were not lacking in military veterans or police officers.

So what? It was a piddly few compared to what one would need for an actual civil war.

Their effort to stop Congress and keep Dump in power was a joke. If you think those weekend warriors consist of an actually effective secret rebel army you need to look again.

Or better yet, start a thread on it in the CT forum where it belongs. It really is on that level.

Skeptic Ginger 28th April 2021 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MRC_Hans (Post 13466351)
Well, presumably neither will the defenders, who also didn't seem to be well prepared for the situation. Notice that on the day of the inauguration, the precautions were of an entirely different class. It would have taken a regular military unit to breach them, and I suspect even that would have failed.

On Jan 6th there was a double surprise effect:

1) The defenders (for some strange reason) didn't see it coming.

2) The attackers basically didn't know what they were doing.

Neither of these is likely to happen again.

Hans

And/or said defenders were willfully blind to it for any number of reasons.

I agree with your post.

Skeptic Ginger 28th April 2021 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gnome (Post 13466371)
I think we are likely to find that #1 was simply untrue. I think they were hobbled. Not necessarily by some central mastermind--possibly by various people in positions of opportunity that were sympathetic to the attackers.

That too.

Skeptic Ginger 28th April 2021 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lurch (Post 13466523)
To your last question: White privilege. To your main point: White privilege. And well justified to a point. Imagine the bloodbath had the insurrectionists been BLM.

Now that these disgruntled whites fearful of demographic change know that their privilege will get them only so far, any future action will entail less stupidity.

To blithely dismiss initial bumbling efforts is to be blind to the terrible harm that can be wreaked by a passionate few.

It only took 2 people to blow up the OK federal building. I am in no way dismissing "the terrible harm that can be wreaked by a passionate few."

I am however dismissing the nonsense that they represent any kind of threat to the federal government or any kind of threat of civil war. And that includes with the people still in Congress like MTG.

ponderingturtle 28th April 2021 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 13466537)
I'm not saying the world is magically safe and back in order. I'm saying at the moment the trend is not toward civil war.:rolleyes:

So your view is that the partisan divide is shrinking then?

Skeptic Ginger 28th April 2021 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ponderingturtle (Post 13466569)
So your view is that the partisan divide is shrinking then?

No, not the divide. But the numbers on the right are shrinking, albeit slowly.

ponderingturtle 28th April 2021 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 13466658)
No, not the divide. But the numbers on the right are shrinking, albeit slowly.

How much of a civil war is driven by the relative sizes vs the breadth of the divide?

And then there is the question of what a modern civil war looks like is it just lots of political violence or does there need to be the holding of territory by standing armies?

dudalb 28th April 2021 01:29 PM

I think there is middle ground between being Pollyana on the one hand, the the "The US is going fascist and there is nothing we can do to stop it" gloom and doom we see from a few people here.
I note a number of the latter seem not to like the US anyway.....

Skeptic Ginger 28th April 2021 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ponderingturtle (Post 13466678)
How much of a civil war is driven by the relative sizes vs the breadth of the divide?

And then there is the question of what a modern civil war looks like is it just lots of political violence or does there need to be the holding of territory by standing armies?

Get back to me when one of you has some evidence besides a couple dozen weekend warriors who think they are going to reinstall Dump to his former glory. :rolleyes:

MRC_Hans 28th April 2021 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger (Post 13466686)
Get back to me when one of you has some evidence besides a couple dozen weekend warriors who think they are going to reinstall Dump to his former glory. :rolleyes:

I don't think most people realize just how difficult a civil war would be these days, in terms of infrastructure.

Hans

shemp 28th April 2021 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MRC_Hans (Post 13466691)
I don't think most people realize just how difficult a civil war would be these days, in terms of infrastructure.

Hans

Even China slave labor factories would be hard pressed to produce millions of blue and gray wool uniforms on short notice.

Jim_MDP 28th April 2021 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 13466681)
I think there is middle ground between being Pollyana on the one hand, the the "The US is going fascist and there is nothing we can do to stop it" gloom and doom we see from a few people here.
I note a number of the latter seem not to like the US anyway.....

WTF bro... that was damned near you for much of the past two years. Exhorting all Dems to get strapped ASAP because the Nazi hordes were gonna get their shooting war sometime in the near term.
But I wouldn't have ever stooped to saying you "seem not to like the US anyway". [emoji52]

Skeptic Ginger 28th April 2021 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shemp (Post 13466828)
Even China slave labor factories would be hard pressed to produce millions of blue and gray wool uniforms on short notice.

:D

DevilsAdvocate 28th April 2021 10:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy (Post 13466094)
Can you provide a cite for these numbers? I just cited numbers from the link that SG provided.


Not sure it's necessary though, given the original point. Even you apparently low numbers don't change the point.

It is in the Wikipedia article. It has links to a number of studies. Here is one study:

https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/

Of the US population, about 25% are Evangelicals. Of the US population, about 80% are religious. That means, the US religious population, about 30% are Evangelicals.

I don't remember what the point was. But it would be more accurate to says that about a third of US is Evangelical rather than a half. That is a significant difference, whether or not it is related to some point.

RecoveringYuppy 28th April 2021 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevilsAdvocate (Post 13467042)
It is in the Wikipedia article. It has links to a number of studies. Here is one study:

https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/

Of the US population, about 25% are Evangelicals. Of the US population, about 80% are religious. That means, the US religious population, about 30% are Evangelicals.

You're still citing a subset of evangelicals. Note that category you are citing is not named "Evangelicals". It's named something that indicates it is a subset of Evangelicals.

A better number for total Evangelicals has already been cited. If you missed it just type "what percentage of the us population is evangelical" in to google. Google will likely cite the relevant number that is already cited, 35% or so. It might be as low as 30% by some estimates, but those estimates will be factoring our Evangelicals that aren't even relevant to the original point.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevilsAdvocate (Post 13467042)
I don't remember what the point was.

Yeah. No kidding. Just for the record the original point is still true even with your low estimate. You two are wrong about something that doesn't even affect the point.

smartcooky 29th April 2021 04:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MRC_Hans (Post 13466691)
I don't think most people realize just how difficult a civil war would be these days, in terms of infrastructure.

Hans

I think many people don't realise that a civil war doesn't have to be two armies fighting each other in big battles like the US Civil War of the 1860s

The definition of a civil war is "a war between citizens of the same country."

As SG pointed out, just two people planned and executed the destruction the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma, killing 168 people, injuring over 680 others, destroying or damaging 324 other buildings within a 16-block radius, destroying 86 cars, and causing an estimated $652 million in damage.... two men, a rented truck and a few barrels of ANFO!

There are many ways to fight a war, and not all of them involve armies. The US has between 150 and 200 mostly right leaning anti-government militias, with a total active membership somewhere in the region of 15,000 to 30,000. More than likely, these militiamen know that if they tried getting into a shooting war with well equipped, well trained professional soldiers, they will be handed their arses double quick, but if only 1% of those are serous enough to think about making and planting bombs, that is still 150 to 300 nutjobs out there.... and that is a lot more than two, they could wreak some real havoc, kill or maim a lot of people and do masses of damage.

MRC_Hans 29th April 2021 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smartcooky (Post 13467214)
I think many people don't realise that a civil war doesn't have to be two armies fighting each other in big battles like the US Civil War of the 1860s

The definition of a civil war is "a war between citizens of the same country."

As SG pointed out, just two people planned and executed the destruction the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma, killing 168 people, injuring over 680 others, destroying or damaging 324 other buildings within a 16-block radius, destroying 86 cars, and causing an estimated $652 million in damage.... two men, a rented truck and a few barrels of ANFO!

There are many ways to fight a war, and not all of them involve armies. The US has between 150 and 200 mostly right leaning anti-government militias, with a total active membership somewhere in the region of 15,000 to 30,000. More than likely, these militiamen know that if they tried getting into a shooting war with well equipped, well trained professional soldiers, they will be handed their arses double quick, but if only 1% of those are serous enough to think about making and planting bombs, that is still 150 to 300 nutjobs out there.... and that is a lot more than two, they could wreak some real havoc, kill or maim a lot of people and do masses of damage.

The crucial word is "war". I know that when two biker groups start shooting at each other, the press calls it a "war", but sensibly the term requires something on a national scale.

What I meant was:

In the middle 19th century, countries were mainly rural and armies could live off the adjacent land, whether it was friendly or not. Now, what we eat and use is mostly produced far away. Same for fuel, ammunition, spare parts. Keeping an insurgent army running when half your suppliers are suddenly your enemies is no small challenge.

Hans

dudalb 29th April 2021 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smartcooky (Post 13466133)
That may be so, but the underlying stuff that brought him to power; the racism, the far right philosophy, the white supremacism - that is all still there simmering below the surface.

In 2016 you got an unqualified, bumbling, failed businessman for a President, one who didn't really know how to be a leader beyond barking orders. He thought being President would give him the ability to do anything he wanted, get anything he wanted, and make others do what he wanted. It took him four years to take down the guard rails that prevented him from getting his way, and by then, his term was up, and it was too late.

Next time, you might not be so lucky, you might end up with a Ted Cruz or a Josh Hawley. Don't underestimate these two, they are smart, and politically savvy - they will have observed what Dump did that failed, and they won't repeat those mistakes... the guard rails will all be gone by the end of January.

If Democracy dies in the US, it will cause Democracy world wide to go into a crisis.
I admit, I do have anissue with a lot of Kiwis...they think they live in Middle Earth, and what happens outside does not effect them.
And I am not ready to write the US off like so many here are.
If the US does implode, I hope you like a world dominated by Xi and Putin.

dudalb 29th April 2021 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MRC_Hans (Post 13467490)
The crucial word is "war". I know that when two biker groups start shooting at each other, the press calls it a "war", but sensibly the term requires something on a national scale.

What I meant was:

In the middle 19th century, countries were mainly rural and armies could live off the adjacent land, whether it was friendly or not. Now, what we eat and use is mostly produced far away. Same for fuel, ammunition, spare parts. Keeping an insurgent army running when half your suppliers are suddenly your enemies is no small challenge.

Hans

A second civil war in the US would resemble the Spanish Civil war much more then it's first Civil War.


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