The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread Part 4
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Seasonal influenza and many other diseases have a similar age gradient though not quite as pronounced as Covid-19. |
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And it's not adults needing boosters, it's old people. I'd made that quite clear. All high-risk groups have got much higher double shot rates than other people. Quote:
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And that's another of the points that have never been made - nobody's suggesting kids don't get it. They're very rarely harmed, and vaccines may not be approved for kids; and until they are, including them would be the misleading part. |
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That makes perfect sense, and would give NZ more time to get completely vaccinated as opposed to the low rate it is now. Again, you criticize the New Zealand government for letting the virus in, yet you also claim it cannot be stopped from getting in, and have claimed you cannot stamp out Delta, yet the NZG seem to be doing a good job of getting back to zero from what I can see. Quote:
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Your 77% is what is considered to be 65% in most countries. And only 37% of the population (unlike the percentage of those eligible for vaccination) is fully vaccinated. That is way too early to reopen. |
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"A sniffle and they could be dead" makes me think that a case of side effects just a little worse than usual, i.e. when people with ordinary lung function need to lie down for a day or two and then are up and about again, may be enough to kill somebody like that. |
I was sent a link to a youtube vid of a recent event called 'Press Conference: Death by Vaccination. Undeclared components of the COVID-19 vaccines'.
Anyone else checked it or heard about it? An article about the press conference is found here. Quote:
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Propaganda, Jono!
A lot of damage caused by vaccines is implied in sentences like, "early signals of impaired fertility in vaccinated individuals can be examined" or "insights can be gained into the development of cancer." Yes, it can be examined and it should be examined, so please do so instead of implying a risk when you haven't actually found any. It is obviously meant to scare people without making any specific claims. |
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We're now six weeks into lockdown and while the numbers are low, we aren't even close to eradication. Quote:
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An unwanted side-effect of the pandemic: https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/...vid19-pandemic
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John Campbell has been flogging vaccine injection aspiration for quite a while. Evidence he's right pops up in a new paper in Clinical Infectious Diseases. Aspiration is an injection technique to reduce the risk of accidently injecting into a blood vessel.
Intravenous Injection of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) mRNA Vaccine Can Induce Acute Myopericarditis in Mouse Model https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance...iab707/6353927 Very complete study where they compared IM v IV results in mice. Quote:
Eric Topol links to John's discussion which takes to task CDC WHO Green Book etc. recommendations not to aspirate. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status...25607426867200 |
Pfizer safe for 5 to 11s
This should be the only global story right now, and the speediest way to get herd immunity in the world population. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/09...r-vaccine-kids |
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Melbourne here we come! (Not a good thing) |
This is a YouTube channel I recently came across, and he seems to a no-nonsense guy who tries to present just the facts and stick to that without political commentary or stuff that might alienate some people who are not disposed to listen to people who they consider to be on the opposite political side.
Title of the video: COVID Transmission | Do vaccinated transmit as much as unvaccinated? He discussed recent studies that bear on that question. (Bottom line is that the best currently available evidence says no, the vaccinated do not transmit as much as unvaccinated.) Here is the video description and links to the studies: Quote:
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Too bad. NZ was so close: Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases But to be expected when restrictions are loosened too soon: Quote:
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http://www.internationalskeptics.com...9#post13612229
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The very constant linear relationship implies there is something that changes with age in a consistent manner. One explanation is the viral receptor expression (ACE2) in the lung rises with age. |
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First get people vaccinated as much as possible. Then mitigation as needed such that regular medical procedures can be done. Between vaccination and those already recovered, most of the damage in the USA is behind us and future damage, as the bug becomes totally endemic where most infections are re-infections or vax breakthroughs, will be similar to influenza and also likely seasonal. At that point NPIs will fade away. This has already happened in may places This is/was pretty much the plan in most of Europe and lots of others like Singapore. The latter, similar to NZ, is now trying to modulate NPIs as it transitions to endemic from zero Covid. Will take them a bit of time because Delta is so damned infectious that case rates are soaring even with 80% vaxxed but virtually no prior recovered. About half the new cases are in vaxxed. They are generally mild or asymptomatic. The other half is getting clobbered. So they are temporarily increasing NPIs to limit hospitalization. |
https://www.rferl.org/a/day-by-day-h.../30552844.html
Time for a reminder of how we got where we are today... |
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I need to get myself organised and copy all of it as a matter of record. If there's a more complete, dad-by-day (and even hour by hour, in the early stages) internet record of the pandemic, I'd love to know where it is. |
San Diego has a rather detailed Covid19 summary issued every week.
But Good grief. I know a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds but really! There is a complete disconnect on page 2 of this Covid update from San Diego. https://content.govdelivery.com/atta...2021.09.29.pdf At the top is Figure 1, at the bottom is Table 1. Figure 1 is a histogram of daily new cases. Table 1 is a summary of the current and prior weekly case totals. Figure 1 has declines in cases while Table 1 has fairly large increases in cases in the same time frames. Maybe numbers were transposed. There are other strange things. Hospitalizations of vaccinated are down more than one would expect from vaccinated cases while vaccinated deaths are pretty consistent with vaccinated cases a few weeks earlier. |
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Preprint study of forward transmission from vaccinated persons. AZ and Pfizer.
The impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination on Alpha & Delta variant transmission https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...260v1.full.pdf Quote:
Note that this study was about transmission, not efficacy which is still quite good. |
Well, it is a preprint, so I do wonder whether all of the appropriate statistical controls were applied.
So their conclusion is that the Oxford, AstraZeneca vaccine is ineffective for preventing transmission of Delta after 3 months? One thought that occurs to me is that over time, more and more unvaccinated people will inevitably be exposed to the virus and, if asymptomatic, or otherwise undetected, they will likely acquire natural immunity due to previous exposure. In other words, the proportion of "naive" unvaccinated will fall while the proportion who have natural immunity will rise. If you use this group as a control group or a reference group to gauge vaccine effectiveness, it would seem that as the control group acquires more and more natural immunity, it will appear that the vaccines are losing their effectiveness over time. Perhaps this is a factor in what we are seeing now? |
Big news perhaps:
New antiviral is highly effective, study finds, and is stirring hope that COVID-19 could be treated by a pill Quote:
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No mention of the number of deaths in the active drug group?
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https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/01/merc...treatment.html Quote:
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The Delta wave in the USA is already well on the decline after having picked off much of the remaining vulnerable over 60. Decline most rapid in places like Florida which were hit hardest over the last 2 months. We in the USA, are probably near the end of Covid-19 since there is no evidence of a more fit variant. Unlike when Delta was obviously on the move back in May and about to eat Alpha's lunch. |
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molnupiravir
Link1. From the structures shown in link 1, It is an ester-type prodrug that resembles pyrimidine nucleosides. Here is an abstract from a paper from August in Nature:
Abstract "Molnupiravir is an orally available antiviral drug candidate currently in phase III trials for the treatment of patients with COVID-19. Molnupiravir increases the frequency of viral RNA mutations and impairs SARS-CoV-2 replication in animal models and in humans. Here, we establish the molecular mechanisms underlying molnupiravir-induced RNA mutagenesis by the viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp). Biochemical assays show that the RdRp uses the active form of molnupiravir, β-D-N4-hydroxycytidine (NHC) triphosphate, as a substrate instead of cytidine triphosphate or uridine triphosphate. When the RdRp uses the resulting RNA as a template, NHC directs incorporation of either G or A, leading to mutated RNA products. Structural analysis of RdRp–RNA complexes that contain mutagenesis products shows that NHC can form stable base pairs with either G or A in the RdRp active center, explaining how the polymerase escapes proofreading and synthesizes mutated RNA. This two-step mutagenesis mechanism probably applies to various viral polymerases and can explain the broad-spectrum antiviral activity of molnupiravir." From a quick perusal of this paper, the fact that active form can form either of two tautomers (and therefore base pair with different nucleosides) looks to be critical to its success. EDT "This antiviral mechanism is conceptually similar to the recently suggested mutagenesis mode of action of favipiravir47,48, but is entirely distinct from that of remdesivir, which impairs RdRp progression23. However, like remdesivir, molnupiravir escapes viral RNA proofreading because M incorporation and M-directed misincorporation are apparently not recognized by the viral exonuclease18,19. Such proofreading escape may also be due to the stability of the M-G and M-A base pairs, which are predicted not to induce or favor backtracking of RdRp, which is probably required for exposing the RNA 3′ end to the proofreading exonuclease49,50." |
Quick question, maybe someone can give me an answer.
I had a J&J shot earlier this year, and I am eligible for a booster of either Moderna or Pfizer. Any argument to pick one over the other? |
Large outbreak in hospital setting with 96% vaccinated.
Nosocomial outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in a highly vaccinated population, Israel, July 2021 https://www.eurosurveillance.org/con...#html_fulltext Quote:
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Likely outstanding news here - new drug reduces severe disease & death by half. https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americ...deaths-in-half
So good they've aborted the trial and are in the process of asking for approval around the world. |
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They showed 10x antibody response from a booster and don't appear to be waning to the same extent as the mRNA vaccines. https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-...vid-19-vaccine |
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The problem is that this drug appears to need administration early to be effective, this means giving to large numbers of people, initially supplies will be limited so I expect it will be rationed, Only given to the highest risk patients on diagnosis if not yet seriously ill. There may be another hospital study planned. |
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How it works has to be addressed, sooner or later
At least the mechanism of action makes sense. That was not quite a deal breaker for me regarding ivermectin, but it did not help.
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It's a "use up what the anti-vaxxers refused before it expires" situation where I am. |
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I think that I'll advise caution for the moment, as a matter of course. There's good reason for hope, but, as far as I understand it, Merck hasn't yet released much in the way of the raw data and nor has the wider medical or scientific community had a chance to review the experiment or findings. How much more important those things are than hype is hard to overstate. |
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