The hoped for "v-shaped" recession in the UK is as illusory as all the other government promises.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53400721

Scientists have been asked to model the UK's winter wave of Coronavirus and the results do not make for comfortable reading:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53392148

Of course we'll also be dealing with the effects of a no-deal Brexit at the same time.

I wish I had some confidence that the government is able to put into place and execute mitigation plans but instead they'll just try and chase positive headlines, try and blame the EU and Remoaners for everything and shirk responsibility wherever possible.

That's not true.

They will think of a 3-word slogan as well.

"Die Quietly"
"Blame Europe"
"Protect Boris"

That is the media playing us for stupid, of course there was no real expectation that the "bounce back" would happen in May, the entire country was in lockdown during the month of May!

If the media are playing us for stupid, so was the Bank of England at the end of June:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53233705

There were similar comments from the BoE at the end of May as well.

But that isn't what is being made into headlines today, read the articles and you'll see they are not saying the bounce back would even start in May.

The May/June articles were saying that the recovery was better than expected/the recession was less pronounced than expected.

The latest article said:

The n95 masks we have at home are from the hardware a year or two ago. I bought them to spray some herbicide on mulberry bushes, an invasive species, back then. I have three left in a package, mostly for my wife, as these are small. My other two (one size, sort of medium I guess) are a different brand. There is no exhale vent, so the wearer and the people around that person are safe. Why did not Trump, Fauci and pals not contract to make these, and sell from drug stores in single count to anyone over 60? Also, all teachers in the fall should have these. The teachers are exposed to a lot of kids in a day.

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_7lVq5u4m...all%2Bmask.jpg

A hundred years ago there was a way to deal with 'mask slackers'.
Re-introduce such measures and watch compliance rates improve.
Oh and reinstate the 'Influenza Courts', that should appeal to the hang 'em and flog em Tories.

Just take a pause to be glad you're not in South Africa - and best wishes to our Saffer forum mates! - because things there are grim.

And SA is one of the most advanced economies on the continent. Other countries may be worse off and we just haven't heard about it.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53396057

They probably should.

I think a lot of governments have been pedalling the line so long that masks are useless that it is hard to backtrack now.

Korea, if I remember rightly, and Taiwan made mass production of masks one their main priorities in the early stages of this.

There is more to this than just buying the mask. We were all taught to put them on properly (and remove them without contaminating your hands; they are intended to catch the virus so may be externally contaminated). We also were fit tested* to make sure that the masks fitted our faces so that they worked and you weren't just breathing around them. Particularly for women (and hirsute men) many masks don't fit. So I have my own personal supply of masks because the standard hospital FP3 (N95) mask does not fit my face. They are also only effective for a few hours so you have to be changing at least daily, and have an effective cleaning policy if reusing them. As pointed out some masks have an exhale valve which means they are poorly effective at the intended purpose for the general population - to protect others. There is also a resource issue if all older people were encouraged to use N95 masks then this would lead to competition with health care facilities, and care homes where staff need them for protection against definite infected people they are looking after. In most of Europe the risk of infection for older people in activities such as shopping is low; the major risks are in more prolonged work place exposures or within the family.

* I got fit tested by someone from the army trained for NBC warfare!

There are no plans to make face coverings mandatory for office workers in England, Matt Hancock has said.


Apparently they will work for people in shops who are only together for w few minutes but not offices, schools or pubs because people are in close proximity for too long!

Plus people working in shops don't have to wear a mask.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53415030

It's not like there have been studies into the spread of Covid-19 which have shown that people sharing an office space is an excellent way to spread the virus. :rolleyes:

I'm sure that sitting 2m apart magically prevents virus transmission among people who share the same air for 8 hours at a stretch. I suppose it's another example of where the government hopes that people will wear masks voluntarily but they don't want to take the step of mandating it because that may be unpopular. :mad:

Anyone who catches Covid-19 then only has themselves to blame for being insufficiently alert :rolleyes:

I'd love for someone unaware of UK government guidelines to decide which of the following is so dangerous that masks must be worn whilst the others are so benign there's no need:

• Being in a supermarket where you might briefly get within 2 metres of someone else
• Sitting inside for several hours, drinking alcohol and eating surrounded by complete strangers
• Working in the same space as colleagues for up to 12 hours at a stretch

If you can't use a pandemic to enrich your mates, then what's the point of more than 50,000 people dying. :mad:

Anyone who cannot wear a covering "because of any physical or mental illness or impairment, or disability", or who would experience "severe distress" from doing so, is exempt.

there are currently no plans to issue any kind of document to prove any of this though. Like on public transport, you can just make the claim.

It won't be compulsory for shop workers in England to wear a face covering because "it won't always be right for every setting in a retail environment", according to Environment Secretary George Eustice.

Once again, a despicable lack of leadership - making individuals responsible for interpreting the science and pushing the blame onto the individual if they get infected. :mad:

I think you are wrong - we've been assured that such places are safer so don't need masks... "....“No, that isn’t going to happen, and the reason is that in offices you tend to spend a lot of time with the same people...."

So spending more time, in an office with a shared ventilation system - either passive or active - next to someone with the virus reduces your chances of getting the virus.

Science - aint it wonderful.

Yes, I had the same thing as Planigale. Booked in for a "face-fit test" done by the college's health and safety officer. Shown how to wear it so as to get a complete seal round my nose and mouth. He stuck a sensor through the mask and let loose some harmless aerosolised material the sensor could detect then made me walk on the spot and step up and down a short flight of plastic test steps and things like that, measuring whether any of the aerosol material was being picked up by the sensor.

Picture me outside shops carefully bending the flexible metal nose-piece and tightening the elastic straps until I can feel the vacuum pressure inside the mask when I breathe in, and my glasses don't fog when I breathe out.

And impact them and especially backbencher tories who are already up in arms at the terrible imposition of masks for people shopping. Strange how the "we are all in it together" is soon dropped when they realize the rules they want to impose will impact them and not be universal popular with their constituency party selection committees. (Obviously not a Mr D Cummings of Number 10 Downing Street, that is one of the exceptions for who doesn't need to wear a mask at all in case it may affect his eyesight)

I've been fitted for the mask model I have. I had it on for weighing powders in the lab some 10-20 years. Even without the testing equipment (it used saccharin, gave you a sweet taste if the mask failed) you know when it is fit properly if you are used to wearing the mask. Any small leak in it makes it feel different inhaling instantly.

As for cleaning it, that is not possible. It's a disposable mask. In my 2 months of wearing it, I have probably been near an infected person a few times. The virus will land on the mask and sit there. If I wear the same mask 2 days later, there is not going to be any live virus in it. I don't shop with it on every day.

That's my procedure too. I have two of these masks, disposable, taken home from work in 2010 or thereabouts when there was a threat of H1N1 influenza. I keep one in my car and the other in the basket of my bicycle. I wear them for short periods in shops. I don't go into shops more often than about once a fortnight, maybe even once a month. Only a supermarket visit would be more than a few minutes.

After I take the mask off I'm careful not to touch my face until I have sanitised or washed my hands. They simply remain in the car (or bike) until I use them again, which will be such a gap from the previous wearing that no virus could possibly remain viable.

Last time I wore one (the day before yesterday as it happens, I had to go to the post office) I experimented with a snood worn round my neck then pulled up over the mask once I'd fitted it. It answers any concerns about whether the mask allows exhaled air to escape unfiltered, protects the outside of the mask a bit, and makes me look a bit more normal among people who are mainly wearing cloth masks. The snood gets the same treatment as the mask - leave it alone after removal. I can always put it through the weekly wash as well.

After washing my hands carefully I also sometimes wash my face too, on the principle that if I have transferred anything to the skin of my face or neck it's better off before it gets on to a mucous membrane. That's assuming the washing itself doesn't do that.

It's all getting a bit academic at the moment as our local authority region is well into its fourth week without any new cases at all. If it wasn't that the county boundaries (which include a long one with Northumberland) are entirely open, we'd be counting towards eradication.

Isn't all this stuff about how to touch the mask and whether or not it is fitted properly somewhat beside the point?

Put the masks on. And do it YESTERDAY!

First get people wearing them as a matter of course.

Make them available. Start producing them at a massive rate.

Yes, then add more details and nuance as you go. Make it better and safer, but at least bloody start from wearing the ******* mask!

Seriously!

I get bothered by all of this "but what if people feel too safe?" and "what if they touch the outside?" and "What if the masks get too wet?" etc...

These are details.

There is a plausible mechanism and plausible prima facie evidence that wearing masks, and yes, that includes surgical masks, seem to reduce overall spread of the virus.

Isn't that what basic epidemiology is about? Do we fret about "Oh, but if someone has a vaccine for X, and they forget to get a booster they might catch the disease so I wonder if we should give the initial vaccine in the first place"?

Do we say, "Oh, but if we tell people to wash their hands, they might not wash their hands properly. In fact, most people still don't so maybe we should tell people that washing their hands is ineffective, just like we tell people that masks are ineffective!"

There are two steps:

1. Get everyone in the ******* masks!

2. Then educate them some more.

2 might be difficult but at least do 1 first!

Johnson has said that there will be an enquiry into the government's handling of the covid crisis, although "now is not the time", so believe it when you see it.

He also said, after some pointed questioning by Keir Starmer that the leader of the opposition should support the government. I'm not sure he's entirely clear on the definition of the word "opposition".

I would be surprised if he had, but of course the important question is: has Cummings read it and has he decided acting on it will improve the polling figures?

This. Absolutely. It's fine to give additional instructions as it were, but these should in no way imply that simply doing it isn't the first and most important step.

He's too busy failing to prepare the country for a no-deal Brexit to fail to prepare it for a winter upsurge in Covid-19 :mad:

As someone said in a tweet I saw, that exchange sums up the two leaders. You can be absolutely sure that Keir Starmer has read the report, and nearly as certain that Boris hasn’t.

I recommend a 'Listerian Antiseptic Aerator' for your office; a wonderful piece of nineteenth century medical technology. Basically a small steam engine that vapourises a mist of carbolic acid (i.e. phenol) to kill any pathogens in the vicinity.
Perfect for the House of Commons, Cabinet Office et cetera.

:D Reminds me of hazmat training at college (an optional module); full suit and SCBA...

Is it effective against politicians?

Eventually...

There is some logic, and you are presenting a false dichotomy. Face coverings are not the only measures being taken, just the most visible.

1. You are likely to be encountering a lot of people, some of whom may be particularly vulnerable. Wearing a face covering protects them.
2. A voluntary activity. You need to buy food, you don't need to go to the pub. Also, if the pub is following the guidelines, it won't be the same as it used to be, so the mental picture of what it looks like may well be inaccurate. One-way systems in the pub, no ordering at the bar, tables by booking only, etc.
3. In those conditions, a face covering is probably not going to make a huge difference, especially after wearing it for several hours. Taking other precautions, such as testing where possible, and having small, fixed teams, where the whole team isolates if one member has symptoms or tests positive, is more practical.

He promised an enquiry, not to release the findings... It's also notable that he was asked about a public enquiry but answered referring to an 'independant enquiry'.

One of the differences between Johnson and Trump is that Trump tries to make himself feel clever by outright claiming to be clever, Johnson does it with his smug little deceptions when he 'answers' questions. Neither is half as smart as they think they are.

With a spray nozzel, yes.

There are preparations going on for a winter second peak, and there have been for some time. Modelling suggesting the second peak goes back to March. One of the paradoxes is the more effective controls are now potentially the worse the peak might be!

I'm sure that there's all kinds of modelling going on, but if the Prime Minister chooses to ignore it then it may prove to be pointless.