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-   -   Bitcoin - Part 3 (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=336407)

a_unique_person 12th January 2021 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zooterkin (Post 13358743)

Schroedinger's bitcoin.

Samson 12th January 2021 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by a_unique_person (Post 13358892)
Schroedinger's bitcoin.

Watching it cross the event horizon

psionl0 12th January 2021 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blutoski 36 hours ago (Post 13356938)
So, like, later this afternoon, I guess.

Well that was a terrible guess. The price hasn't done much of anything for at least 36 hours (although it is down from the $40K+ of last week).

Mind you, a quick study of the price history shows that the odds were massively against such a prediction. Although the price has been in free fall several times in its history, I can't find any instance of a 50% price drop in a single day.

The current bubble may still have some time to go before the price comes crashing down again.

Armitage72 15th January 2021 11:16 AM

A man in the UK accidentally threw away a hard drive containing his Bitcoins back in 2013, which would now be worth about $273 million. He's offering the town $70 million to let him excavate the landfill looking for it, the payment depending on him finding the drive and the data being recoverable. The town is saying that the excavation would have a significant environmental impact and could cost millions, with no guarantee of him being able to pay.

a_unique_person 16th January 2021 10:32 PM

Anyone want to trade some Tesla shares for Bitcoin.

ChrisBFRPKY 18th January 2021 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blutoski (Post 13358111)
So, it's volatile, like gambling, and you can win if you have a time machine to go back to a few hours/days earlier. Got it.

I just checked with my time machine and it says: "Have bets placed before Jan 29,2021. Insert 10 BTC for more info". ;)

The Atheist 21st January 2021 01:31 AM

This will help Bitcoin's value: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/...ryptocurrency/

I tend to agree with the idea that Bitcoin is mainly used for illegal purposes.

Samson 21st January 2021 02:42 AM

I will consume an appendage if bitcoin does not see 20,000 shortly.

psionl0 21st January 2021 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13368715)
I tend to agree with the idea that Bitcoin is mainly used for illegal purposes.

Have you got any data that shows that transactions for illegal purposes outweighs speculation?

ChrisBFRPKY 21st January 2021 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 13368777)
I will consume an appendage if bitcoin does not see 20,000 shortly.

I hope and pray you're right. But not because of the appendage thing. I would suggest a pickled pigs foot though. If you've never tried one, and most people have not, you may be pleasantly surprised if you don't think about it too much.

The Atheist 21st January 2021 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 13369260)
Have you got any data that shows that transactions for illegal purposes outweighs speculation?

Apologies, I didn't make clear that I'm talking about purchases of goods.

In terms of what's actually purchased via Bitcoin, there aren't any numbers available because criminals tend not to report the value of their dug deals are, but I'd be amazed if it turned out that more than 5% of market purchases made were legal usage.

psionl0 21st January 2021 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13369363)
Apologies, I didn't make clear that I'm talking about purchases of goods.

If you eliminate the most common reason for buying bitcoins (speculation) then I guess that purchasing illegal goods and services would be the next most likely reason but I suspect that this would be well down the ladder.

a_unique_person 22nd January 2021 12:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 13369482)
If you eliminate the most common reason for buying bitcoins (speculation) then I guess that purchasing illegal goods and services would be the next most likely reason but I suspect that this would be well down the ladder.

If the only measure of worth of an object it's speculation before, it's not a good sign.

psionl0 22nd January 2021 12:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by a_unique_person (Post 13370016)
If the only measure of worth of an object it's speculation before, it's not a good sign.

It hasn't been a good sign for 12 years.

Don't forget that just because bitcoin is not evil-person proof doesn't mean that it hasn't achieved its designed technological objective.

Samson 22nd January 2021 02:19 AM

One man's (person's) reversal pattern is another man's continuation pattern.
This is what bedevils technical analysis of trends in free markets.
I can report that bitcoin is a beautifully behaving technical market, which is exactly to be expected in a theoretical construct devoid of intrinsic value.

a_unique_person 22nd January 2021 07:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 13370022)
It hasn't been a good sign for 12 years.

Don't forget that just because bitcoin is not evil-person proof doesn't mean that it hasn't achieved its designed technological objective.


From a technology point of view it's failure. In the 21st century it can take days to do a simple transaction.

lomiller 22nd January 2021 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by a_unique_person (Post 13370192)
From a technology point of view it's failure. In the 21st century it can take days to do a simple transaction.

Yeah, bitcoin is a complete failure if you evaluate it on either the basis of what it tried to achieve. It's not a functional currency and never will be.

Even without the failure of the technology itself bitcoins failure to become a functional currency was easily predicable. It attempted to solve a problem that didn't exist and viewed strengths of the established monetary system as problems to be "fixed"

psionl0 22nd January 2021 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by a_unique_person (Post 13370192)
From a technology point of view it's failure. In the 21st century it can take days to do a simple transaction.

After all these years and thousands of posts on bitcoin you still don't know how it works? :eek:

It takes 10 minutes to get a transaction confirmed and 1 hour for 6 confirmations after which forking can't touch the transaction. It's on the blockchain forever. Of course you have to offer a transaction fee or no miner will touch your transaction but it was never meant to be a free service. On the most recent blocks, the average transaction fee is of the order of about 0.0005 btc or $15.

For transferring large amounts of wealth around the world without interference from a third party or the need to justify your transaction to financial authorities, crypto currencies can't be beaten. That is its "intrinsic" value.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lomiller (Post 13370304)
It's not a functional currency and never will be.

Who said that bitcoin has to be a "functional currency" (whatever that means)? michaelsuede?

ChrisBFRPKY 22nd January 2021 08:34 PM

Interesting piece:

"Crypto Whale Abruptly Drains Wallet, Moving $615,000,000 in Bitcoin in Single Transaction for a fee of about $3.00"

https://dailyhodl.com/2021/01/19/cry...20about%20%243.

Dr.Sid 22nd January 2021 08:38 PM

Damn .. imaging hodling that !

ChrisBFRPKY 22nd January 2021 10:26 PM

I thought it was a neat write up and example that illustrates an important use of BTC. A method of transferring wealth at ultra low cost. Maybe it'll help some understand better how BTC works.

psionl0 23rd January 2021 12:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY (Post 13371104)
Interesting piece:

"Crypto Whale Abruptly Drains Wallet, Moving $615,000,000 in Bitcoin in Single Transaction for a fee of about $3.00"

https://dailyhodl.com/2021/01/19/cry...20about%20%243.

0.00008320 BTC seems like a pretty stingy fee compared to the current average. I wonder how long it took for the whale to get his first confirmation.

ETA this seems like a reasonable fee a week ago. On block 666216 there were 2643 transactions and the total fees collected was 1.28898737 BTC. That makes an average fee per transaction of 0.000048378 BTC.

https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/block/666216

ChrisBFRPKY 23rd January 2021 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 13371212)
0.00008320 BTC seems like a pretty stingy fee compared to the current average. I wonder how long it took for the whale to get his first confirmation.

ETA this seems like a reasonable fee a week ago. On block 666216 there were 2643 transactions and the total fees collected was 1.28898737 BTC. That makes an average fee per transaction of 0.000048378 BTC.

https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/block/666216

Yep, that transaction was on the 16th.

lomiller 26th January 2021 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY (Post 13371145)
I thought it was a neat write up and example that illustrates an important use of BTC. A method of transferring wealth at ultra low cost. Maybe it'll help some understand better how BTC works.

AKA tax evasion and/or money laundering.

psionl0 26th January 2021 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lomiller (Post 13374268)
AKA tax evasion and/or money laundering.

There's the Jedi mind at work again. :rolleyes:

ChrisBFRPKY 26th January 2021 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lomiller (Post 13374268)
AKA tax evasion and/or money laundering.

Not at all. It's a transfer of wealth.

In the US, when those coins are converted into a physical currency, (cashed out) that's when Uncle Sam gets his share. Getting an account to do so is no different than applying for a bank account. The current "Know your customer" stuff takes care of illicit activities like money laundering by identifying the person converting their BTC to USD. Not only is the person identified, their bank account and amount transferred is as well. One thing's for certain, when you convert BTC to USD Uncle Sam WILL GET his money.

Otherwise, the BTC is still an unrealized investment gain with no tax due.

I suppose if you were to transfer BTC to a Country that offers private banking transactions and cash out there you could get away with money laundering, but that's nothing new and certainly not limited to BTC.

And as a hypothetical, if you were to purchase bullion with BTC, there must be a shipping address to go with those purchase records, then you have to sell it. If I was going to set up some sort of illegal activity that I didn't want traced back to me I'd use cash, US dollars, like everyone else does. BTC leaves too many trails getting in and out.

lomiller 27th January 2021 07:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY (Post 13374501)
Not at all. It's a transfer of wealth.

In the US, when those coins are converted into a physical currency, (cashed out) that's when Uncle Sam gets his share. Getting an account to do so is no different than applying for a bank account. The current "Know your customer" stuff takes care of illicit activities like money laundering by identifying the person converting their BTC to USD. Not only is the person identified, their bank account and amount transferred is as well. One thing's for certain, when you convert BTC to USD Uncle Sam WILL GET his money.

Otherwise, the BTC is still an unrealized investment gain with no tax due.

I suppose if you were to transfer BTC to a Country that offers private banking transactions and cash out there you could get away with money laundering, but that's nothing new and certainly not limited to BTC.

And as a hypothetical, if you were to purchase bullion with BTC, there must be a shipping address to go with those purchase records, then you have to sell it. If I was going to set up some sort of illegal activity that I didn't want traced back to me I'd use cash, US dollars, like everyone else does. BTC leaves too many trails getting in and out.

In the story we are discussing over $600 million in Bitcoin were exchanged for something. Probabaly money. Even if it were traded for something capital gains tax likely should have applied. It's HIGHLY likely that this was a case of tax evasion, and may have been done for money laundering reasons as well.

ChrisBFRPKY 27th January 2021 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lomiller (Post 13375127)
In the story we are discussing over $600 million in Bitcoin were exchanged for something. Probabaly money. Even if it were traded for something capital gains tax likely should have applied. It's HIGHLY likely that this was a case of tax evasion, and may have been done for money laundering reasons as well.

It's not uncommon for someone that's holding BTC to make transfers to a new wallet address without any exchange of ownership of said BTC.

Nothing in the chain analytics suggests these transactions were in any way illegal activities. If we're going to speculate it's just as likely the large transfers were broken up going to a new account opened somewhere and the smaller transactions to the other addresses could have simply been business expenses for things like monthly payroll etc.....

The_Animus 27th January 2021 12:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by a_unique_person (Post 13370192)
From a technology point of view it's failure. In the 21st century it can take days to do a simple transaction.

Assuming you set an average confirmaron fee it takes minutes to get the first confirmation and maybe an hour to have it fully confirmed.

lomiller 27th January 2021 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY (Post 13375406)

Nothing in the chain analytics suggests these transactions were in any way illegal activities.

Of course you can't. This is because bitcoin was designed to prevent you from knowing who sent money to whome. The reason WHY it gets used for criminal activities.

psionl0 27th January 2021 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lomiller (Post 13375564)
Of course you can't. This is because bitcoin was designed to prevent you from knowing who sent money to whome. The reason WHY it gets used for criminal activities.

If it is your claim that NO bitcoin transactions are legitimate then the onus is on you to prove it. Your idle speculation is worthless.

ChrisBFRPKY 28th January 2021 06:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lomiller (Post 13375564)
Of course you can't. This is because bitcoin was designed to prevent you from knowing who sent money to whome. The reason WHY it gets used for criminal activities.

I think you must be thinking of privacy coins like Monero. Their transactions can be secretive and likely untraceable.

In contrast, BTC transactions are viewable on the blockchain and therefore traceable. While there is no name listed for who the BTC goes to or from, the transaction and wallet ID is 100% traceable to the end user when conversion to physical currency or goods takes place.

Meaning at some point the end user will convert it into physical currency or goods, all of which leave traceable transactions to identify them. Otherwise the end user only has numbers on a computer to look at with no financial gain at all. It would be sad to know you're an unrealized multi-millionaire that doesn't have enough cash to pay the monthly utility bills....

lomiller 29th January 2021 07:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 13375634)
If it is your claim that NO bitcoin transactions are legitimate then the onus is on you to prove it. Your idle speculation is worthless.

It's not, so your strawman arguments loose again.

lomiller 29th January 2021 07:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY (Post 13377121)
I think you must be thinking of privacy coins like Monero. Their transactions can be secretive and likely untraceable.

In contrast, BTC transactions are viewable on the blockchain and therefore traceable. While there is no name listed for who the BTC goes to or from, the transaction and wallet ID is 100% traceable to the end user when conversion to physical currency or goods takes place.

If there is no name attached it's not traceable.

psionl0 29th January 2021 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lomiller (Post 13377504)
It's not, so your strawman arguments loose again.

So you didn't say, "It's HIGHLY likely that this was a case of tax evasion, and may have been done for money laundering reasons as well"?

Quote:

Originally Posted by lomiller (Post 13377508)
If there is no name attached it's not traceable.

:dl:

lomiller 29th January 2021 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 13377729)

So you admit that I did not in fact say:
Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 13375634)
NO bitcoin transactions are legitimate

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 13377729)

:dl:

If you think it's funny then by all means explain to us how authorities can trace who transferred money to whome without know the owner of the wallet?

psionl0 29th January 2021 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lomiller (Post 13377829)
So you admit that I did not in fact say:

You can't hide behind weasel words. The first and only thought you had about this transaction was ILLEGAL.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lomiller (Post 13377829)
If you think it's funny then by all means explain to us how authorities can trace who transferred money to whome without know the owner of the wallet?

There is no need to ask me. ChrisBFRPKY has done a good job of explaining how transactions can be tracked. If you think that he is too biased then you could always check out the technical web sites.

lomiller 29th January 2021 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 13377957)
You can't hide behind weasel words. The first and only thought you had about this transaction was ILLEGAL.


There is no need to ask me. ChrisBFRPKY has done a good job of explaining how transactions can be tracked. If you think that he is too biased then you could always check out the technical web sites.

You constructed a stawman, got called out on it and are now

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 13377957)

There is no need to ask me.

Yes there is. You responded I asked you to justify your response. I'm not surprise that you can't, in fact I knew you couldn't.

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 13377957)

ChrisBFRPKY has done a good job of explaining how transactions can be tracked.

ChrisBFRPKY failed for the reasons I already pointed out.

psionl0 29th January 2021 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lomiller (Post 13377979)
ChrisBFRPKY failed for the reasons I already pointed out.

Of course you will say that ChrisBFRPKY failed because you don't want to admit that he addressed your objection. You didn't give any reasons. You just repeated a non-sequitur.

ChrisBFRPKY 29th January 2021 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lomiller (Post 13377508)
If there is no name attached it's not traceable.

I get that you are hard focused on one specific point as the foundation for your objection. This is a sound tactic of debate and I applaud the effort.

However there is an important detail required for this method to come to fruition. Using the specific argument that "the traceable BTC transaction does not include the person's name(s) therefore you cannot know who they are". would have to mean that the FBI or other law enforcement agencies are limited to tracing a name only within the transaction. There is the flaw in your position.

Let's look at it this way, if I were to join your objection on this point about the name not being listed and further add that an IP address does not list the user's name either. See where I'm going?

Now I can surmise you're likely thinking about VPN software right? Exactly, but that's not the point I'm trying to clarify. My point to address your objection is that Law Enforcement is not deterred by the missing name from the BTC transactions when they trace them, the name will eventually be revealed and the transactions on the blockchain are used as evidence of criminal activity for prosecution.


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