2020 Congressional Election
 

General purpose thread for news, discussion, debate, predictions, questions etc.
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Background info:

The United States Congress is the head of the Legislative Branch. It consists of two houses:

- The Senate. 100 seats. Each state, regardless of population, gets to elect two Senators each.

- The House of Representatives. 435 seats. States get a number of Representatives ranging from 1 to 53 depending on population.

//These number do not account for non-voting members elected by American territories such as Puerto Rico//

All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 35 out of 100 seats in the United States Senate are up for grabs in November.

Currently the Democrats hold a majority in the House (232 to the Republicans 198, with one Libertarian and 4 vacant) while the Republicans hold a majority in the Senate (53 to the Democrats 45, with 2 Independents who generally caucus and vote with the Democrats giving them a de-facto 47)

Current political polling suggests a tight race for the Senate, with a 50-50 split not being one of the less likely outcomes, with the Democrats retaining a majority in the house.

Either party achieving a super-majority in either of the Houses looks extremely unlikely.

Due to a combination of industrial scale voter suppression, gerrymandering and wholesale discounting of postal votes, President Trump will be re-elected, the GOP will increase their majority in the senate and will regain control of the house with a comfortable majority.

The lesson with gerrymandering is that it doesn't work for very long. The Democrats took the House by winning those gerrymandered districts. Not all states have voter suppression issues. Dems control the voting mechanisms in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Gerrymandering doesn't matter at all in the Senate or presidential races. And really, no one is talking about the Republicans taking back the House. Trump would need to be both leading and by a wide margin for that to happen.

Trump only barely won in 2016, by a total of only, what was it, 14 000 or 40 000 votes across several states he needed to win? Of course more of the votes this year will be by mail, and Trump has had four years in which to sabotage things, but this election-rigging can only get him so far.

With this grim forecast as a fiducial, I'm pretty sure there'll be *something* for liberals to cheer. Jeez, if it turned out that bad, there'd be insufficient crisis councillors in the nation.

This was posted elsewhere, but it should be noted that Nancy Pelosi and other DP heavyweights endorsed Joe Kennedy III in a primary challenge for progressive Ed Markey's incumbent Senate seat. For all the talk of party unity and the need to defeat Trump, money and political attention was squandered in order to try to challenge a relatively progressive Democratic Senator with a centrist candidate.

Kennedy lost. I guess that last name doesn't have the same cache it used to. Back to Hyannis Joe.

Isn't this the same thing they did with Biden vs Bernie/Warren/et al?
Except Biden won out for that one.
But I suppose that is national and perhaps things that are national are more moderate than individual local races.

Lindsey Graham tweets:

"It’s been 72 hours since I released 11 years of state and federal tax returns and challenged @HarrisonJaime to do the same. Crickets. What is he hiding?"

https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/...637922818?s=19

I would bet everything I own against this, even knowing your track record.

This is so silly that I'm demoting you from prescient to broken clock. :p

This seems like a perilous road to go down for a piece of Trumptrash like Graham.

Ah yes: The eleven years of Lindsey Graham's tax returns that we've all been so urgently awaiting, ever since he launched his political career. 28 years ago. Hopefully Harrison Jaime DGAF about Graham's twitter call-outs.

Not that I care about the Trumptrash at the rally in Nevada tonight. However, we know the virus passes from animals to people and the attendees could pass the virus to real people who have value.

Not to mention, to real animals that have value!

Please, please let Trump repost this without reading the whole thing.

....I really, really hope you are right.

I really, really fear you are not. :(

Some recent polling numbers for the U.S. senate races:

(Via: Politico)

- Susan "He's learned his Lesson" Collins is WAY down in the Maine senate race. (She is behind Sarah Gideon by 54-42.) I thought the Democrats had a good shot at taking this seat, but a margin like that is more than I was expecting. Hopefully Collins has learned her lesson.

- Lady Lindsey is currently tied with his opponent (Harrison) in South Carolina. (Strangely enough, Harrison actually rates better who is seen as more favorable. Sadly with voter suppression, I don't have much hope of the Democrats winning S.C.

- Sadly, Moscow Mitch is leading in Kentucky. But being the backwards state that it is, its not surprising that Kentucky is sticking with the turtle. (I have sometimes wondered if it would be more fitting to see Moscow Mitch lose, or see him win but have the GOP lose the senate so he loses his power.)

Harrison released his returns this week and tweeted in reply, "Done. Now do President Trump."

Of course.

Own goal by Graham, as apparently South Carolina asked the candidates to release their tax returns.

Is this just becoming some weird affect now?

Raise your hand if anyone's tax return ever caused you to vote or not vote for them.

538's Senate forecast is live.

The gist: Democrats *probably* need 4 or 5 pickups, depending on the presidency, since Doug Jones is an underdog in AL-Sen. A lot of these races are against incumbents in red states. Still, Democrats have so many opportunities (~12!) that they're slight favorites to do it.
(Nate Silver on Twitter)

The Minnesota 2nd District Congressional Race is being delayed until next year after a 3rd party candidate has died.

Adam Weeks, 38, was a farmer running under the Legal Marijuana Now Party against freshman Democratic Rep. Angie Craig. Minnesota has a state law requiring a delay of election of a candidate dies with 79 days of the election.

Minnesota's 2nd District is considered a tight race between Craig and Republican challenger Tyler Kistner.

Lady Linsey Graham seems to be having some funding problems...

From: Politico
Twice on Thursday, Graham...went on Fox News Channel and implored viewers to donate to his campaign...“I’m getting overwhelmed,” Graham told conservative talk-show host Sean Hannity Thursday night. “...Help me. They’re killing me, money-wise. Help me. You helped me last week — help me again."

Maybe we can hold a telethon for him.

Now, I admit, despite a close race, the republicans will still probably hold on to the seat. But it is nice to see them sweating over it.

And the folks at the Lincoln project have picked up on things.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1309620608561414144

One issue is that the GOP is having to funnel money into places that used to not need it. Lee Zeldin is spending like $6 mil in Long Island. He won his seat by 8% in 2018 but is facing a bigger challenge this time around (the the democrats are putting some weight into it as a flippable district).

I am actually surprised... I thought the republicans party had decided not to fund congressional house races this time (saving their money for the Presidential race.)

Sent from my LM-X320 using Tapatalk

Well maybe Lee Zeldin has a stockpile, but he's not going to be sending it on to the President

This might have something to do with it:

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/...-defend-mccain

One of Graham's long-time donors shifted his money to his opponent for the following reasons:

Lindsey Graham wouldn't recognize 'character' if was spelled out for him in a dictionary.

I think both Cindy and Meghan McCain have been hugely disappointed in him and disgusted by his betrayal of John McCain.

Not saying it isn't true, but desperate pleas for money is a common tactic in political fundraising. Telling your audience that you're getting clobbered may just be a ploy.

Graham seems to be facing a more serious challenge than normal, but hoping for a Democrat in S. Carolina is long shot odds.

Won't you please help stop the suffering?

ETA: "autographed picture of Lindsay Graham enjoying a hot dog" is a nice, though homophobic, touch.

Cal Cunningham, who is trying to defeat GOP incumbent Thom Tillis in a very competitive race in NC, apologizes for sending sexy texts to a woman not his wife.

I saw some of those on Twitter. Tamest sexts ever

There was a debate tonight between Lindsey Graham and Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison. Harrison began the debate by setting up a giant plexiglass shield next to his podium facing Graham's.

By all accounts, the debate was a one-sided savaging and Graham was visibly helpless for most of it.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EjcrlVJW...jpg&name=small

:dl:

I like it. But I am surprised the moderators allowed it. (I thought that they would have some sort of "No physical props" in the debate rules.

Situationally, I would argue - and I'd bet Harrison would too - that it is legitimate safety equipment, not a prop. Graham has had direct contact with someone who tested positive yesterday.

Not after the Trump debate.

I don't think "barrier to prevent possible COVID-19 infection" counts as "physical prop".

Maybe Graham didn't catch the plague. Maybe intention was actually there, to use this screen as physical prop to remind people about coronavirus.

But unfortunately (for republicans), this kind of thing has very, very good excuse now.

Schadenfreude is not ok, but hey:

"Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.), who switched parties with the hope of keeping his seat, now trails his Democratic opponent Amy Kennedy by a margin of 49% to 44% in a new Monmouth poll."

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/statu...31948332716033
https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/sta...32417360818176

True, the ones I saw were at worst PG rated, but they did make it pretty obvious that he's having an extramarital affair. I'm sure there are some people who will see that as a deal breaker, unfortunately possibly enough to swing the race.

There's another allegation and he skipped a town hall yesterday.