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-   -   Bookies have Trump favourite for 2024 Nomination (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=348895)

Samson 9th January 2021 04:13 PM

Bookies have Trump favourite for 2024 Nomination
 
I find this curious and implausible, but there it is. As of right now Ladbrokes have him at 4 to 1 and Pence second line at 8 to 1 for the 2024 republican nomination. I know there is persistent talk of another go, but these figures are stark and in my view represent an impossible scenario.
This thread may be of lingering interest to watch over the years as he becomes irrelevant.

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/p...70/all-markets

Mike! 9th January 2021 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 13354798)
I find this curious and implausible, but there it is. As of right now Ladbrokes have him at 4 to 1 and Pence second line at 8 to 1 for the 2024 republican nomination. I know there is persistent talk of another go, but these figures are stark and in my view represent an impossible scenario.
This thread may be of lingering interest to watch over the years as he becomes irrelevant.

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/p...70/all-markets

There was a time I think it was quite possible, but that ship has not only sailed, it was quickly sunk by a self inflicted torpedo launched with no guidance system.

dudalb 9th January 2021 04:27 PM

Ladbrooks needs to recalulate after Wendesday.

Trebuchet 9th January 2021 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 13354817)
Ladbrooks needs to recalulate after Wendesday.

Indeed they do. Pence's chances are far less than that now, the traitor!

shemp 9th January 2021 09:20 PM

Odds are based upon the money coming in on bets. They're not a real assessment of their actual chances. This merely says that more money is being bet on Trump than any other candidate. Odds are fluid and will change as betting patterns change.

Dave Rogers 9th January 2021 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shemp (Post 13355068)
Odds are based upon the money coming in on bets. They're not a real assessment of their actual chances. This merely says that more money is being bet on Trump than any other candidate. Odds are fluid and will change as betting patterns change.

And Trumpublicans are stupid enough to place large bets as a show of loyalty, I suspect.

Dave

ChristianProgressive 9th January 2021 09:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike! (Post 13354809)
There was a time I think it was quite possible, but that ship has not only sailed, it was quickly sunk by a self inflicted torpedo launched with no guidance system.

Any other time, I'd agree, but his base is SOLID behind him. If he isn't impeached, thus rendering him inelligable, or isn't arrested by SDNY on a Felony, or phsically deteriorate to the point he has to be institutionalized, he might well run and have strong chance of winning.

lionking 9th January 2021 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shemp (Post 13355068)
Odds are based upon the money coming in on bets. They're not a real assessment of their actual chances. This merely says that more money is being bet on Trump than any other candidate. Odds are fluid and will change as betting patterns change.

Beat me to it. The only time speculative odds are publicised is when the book is opened, and after that the odds follow the money.

Some professional punters claim to win over time by placing bets against very popular teams as those odds are distorted by the fan factor.

The Great Zaganza 9th January 2021 10:38 PM

people have made good money betting against delusional Trump supporters.
no reason to stop now.

Segnosaur 9th January 2021 11:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 13354798)
Bookies have Trump favourite for 2024 Nomination

Well, a few things to keep in mind:

- If you have a large number of candidates in the primary, due to vote splitting/distribution a candidate does not need to get anywhere near a majority of votes to take an early lead
- Trump did do very well in the past election, and had strong support among the republican base.
- Even after last Wednesday's terrorist acts, a large number of republicans still support Trump, and think the terrorism was acceptable. Another poll actually showed more Republicans blamed Biden than Trump.

So, while Trump would be unlikely to win the general election (where he would have to appeal to moderates), its not out of the realm of possibility that he might win the republican primaries.

Samson 10th January 2021 02:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Rogers (Post 13355071)
And Trumpublicans are stupid enough to place large bets as a show of loyalty, I suspect.

Dave

This maybe the key to this anomaly, a real world explanation, but here is the thing.
I would take those bets to the limit of my worldly assets because I think there is 0.00000% chance (roughly) that he gets the nomination.

dirtywick 10th January 2021 03:01 AM

the season hasnít started yet

Garrison 10th January 2021 04:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChristianProgressive (Post 13355083)
Any other time, I'd agree, but his base is SOLID behind him. If he isn't impeached, thus rendering him inelligable, or isn't arrested by SDNY on a Felony, or phsically deteriorate to the point he has to be institutionalized, he might well run and have strong chance of winning.

Hey the good news is that if he does run I can think of nothing else that would do more to galvanize the Democratic vote to turn out. Plus if we're lucky he opens a split in the Republican party, or even better he denounces the Republicans as having betrayed him and runs as an independent.

Safe-Keeper 10th January 2021 05:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike! (Post 13354809)
There was a time I think it was quite possible, but that ship has not only sailed, it was quickly sunk by a self inflicted torpedo launched with no guidance system.

Yeah, Trump himself has assured he can't run for president in 2024. Even if he's not prosecuted, and still able to ace a bigly difficult dementia test in 2024, I doubt the GOP would let him back in. If he runs as an independent, there is no way the people would stand for him becoming POTUS again. The 2021 coup attempt would be nothing compared to the reaction from the liberals if Trump won.

Safe-Keeper 10th January 2021 05:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Segnosaur (Post 13355163)
Another poll actually showed more Republicans blamed Biden than Trump.

Because "the election was rigged", no doubt. Disgusting :mad: .

At least it's all out in daylight now. The police needs reform, authoritarianism needs tackling, racism needs fighting, the postfact world needs countering. Trump can't put the genie back in the bottle.

bonzombiekitty 10th January 2021 06:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper (Post 13355282)
Yeah, Trump himself has assured he can't run for president in 2024. Even if he's not prosecuted, and still able to ace a bigly difficult dementia test in 2024, I doubt the GOP would let him back in. If he runs as an independent, there is no way the people would stand for him becoming POTUS again. The 2021 coup attempt would be nothing compared to the reaction from the liberals if Trump won.

Even if Trump was to somehow win the Republican 2024 nomination, I think there's enough republicans who would refuse to vote for him in the general election, it would neuter his chances of winning. Anecdotal, I know, but my FiL is a long time blue-collar Republican. His family has always voted republican, as has he. He voted for Trump in the election (under some very tenuous reasoning about Biden going to quickly resign so Harris will be president). Now he's calling for Trump to resign or be impeached and to never run for office again. I think there's a very real split in the party forming over this.

Segnosaur 10th January 2021 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper (Post 13355282)
Yeah, Trump himself has assured he can't run for president in 2024. Even if he's not prosecuted, and still able to ace a bigly difficult dementia test in 2024, I doubt the GOP would let him back in.

How exactly would the GOP be able to keep him out of the race though? It's sort of a democratic thing, and supposedly the party leaders don't have that much control.

They could throw up roadblocks (like limits on the number of debate participants, or other candidates dropping out and endorsing a single non-trump candidate) but there is no guarantee that would keep trump out.

Sent from my LM-X320 using Tapatalk

MRC_Hans 10th January 2021 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 13354798)
I find this curious and implausible, but there it is. As of right now Ladbrokes have him at 4 to 1 and Pence second line at 8 to 1 for the 2024 republican nomination. I know there is persistent talk of another go, but these figures are stark and in my view represent an impossible scenario.
This thread may be of lingering interest to watch over the years as he becomes irrelevant.

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/p...70/all-markets

Bookies don't really evaluate likelihoods. Their odds mainly reflect what people are betting on. People right now betting on Trumps chances in 2024 are either daft or pure gamblers, so you can't infer anything about reality from this.

Hans

Mike! 10th January 2021 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Segnosaur (Post 13355639)
How exactly would the GOP be able to keep him out of the race though? It's sort of a democratic thing, and supposedly the party leaders don't have that much control.

They could throw up roadblocks (like limits on the number of debate participants, or other candidates dropping out and endorsing a single non-trump candidate) but there is no guarantee that would keep trump out.

Sent from my LM-X320 using Tapatalk

I expect he's going to be rendered inert soon enough. Since he clearly lacks the good sence to get out while the getting's good (Or he'd have resigned when the election was called, maybe right after issuing a well constructed string of pardons) he's most likely going to hang around long enough to see his fat ass impeached a second time, with a ban on running for office ever again, thrown in for good measure.

ChristianProgressive 10th January 2021 09:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper (Post 13355284)
Because "the election was rigged", no doubt. Disgusting :mad: .

At least it's all out in daylight now. The police needs reform, authoritarianism needs tackling, racism needs fighting, the postfact world needs countering. Trump can't put the genie back in the bottle.

By the same token, it remains to be seen if the Left can stand up to any of that in an effective way.

The Great Zaganza 10th January 2021 11:29 PM

the longer people believe that Trump will win in 2024, the harder it will be for the GOP to field a credible challenger.
I'm all for it.

Lurch 10th January 2021 11:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 13354817)
Ladbrooks needs to recalulate after Wendesday.

Or they may find the need for a renaming to Brokelads.

Samson 11th January 2021 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb (Post 13354817)
Ladbrooks needs to recalulate after Wendesday.

Despite the looming effectiveness of the impeachment process, the odds stay the same at 4 to 1. Ladbrokes will clean up on this if anyone is actually taking the bet.

Suddenly 11th January 2021 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 13357102)
Despite the looming effectiveness of the impeachment process, the odds stay the same at 4 to 1. Ladbrokes will clean up on this if anyone is actually taking the bet.

I'm assuming that they not letting people bet the other side at these odds?



(Although that might still be a bad bet seeing that it entails letting Ladbrokes hold the money for 3.5 years. Getting a 25% return (1-4 odds) over that time frame isn't that great of an investment even if it were a lock...)

Samson 11th January 2021 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Suddenly (Post 13357135)
I'm assuming that they not letting people bet the other side at these odds?



(Although that might still be a bad bet seeing that it entails letting Ladbrokes hold the money for 3.5 years. Getting a 25% return (1-4 odds) over that time frame isn't that great of an investment even if it were a lock...)

Exactly, and I wrote a similar post till I realised this mathematical scenario still favoured the house.

Suddenly 11th January 2021 01:59 PM

4-1 on Trump is a terrible bet. However...

I think 8-1 on Pence is way worse. I can dream up scenarios where Trump winds up with the nomination. I can't come up with any remotely plausible scenario where Pence gets on the ticket seeing the only people that he could have called his base just wanted to hang him on the Capitol lawn. He's probably not the most hated man in America, but he might be the most widely disliked.

Samson 24th January 2021 01:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Suddenly (Post 13357200)
4-1 on Trump is a terrible bet. However...

I think 8-1 on Pence is way worse. I can dream up scenarios where Trump winds up with the nomination. I can't come up with any remotely plausible scenario where Pence gets on the ticket seeing the only people that he could have called his base just wanted to hang him on the Capitol lawn. He's probably not the most hated man in America, but he might be the most widely disliked.

We now see Trump and Pence co favourites.

Donald Trump

6/1
Mike Pence

6/1
Nikki Haley

8/1
Ted Cruz

16/1
Ivanka Trump

20/1
Josh Hawley

20/1
Tom Cotton

20/1
Tucker Carlson

20/1
Marco Rubio

25/1
Mike Pompeo

25/1
Mitt Romney

25/1
Ron DeSantis

25/1
Dan Crenshaw

33/1
Donald Trump Jnr

33/1
Kristi Noem

33/1
Charlie Baker

It seems to me certain there will be no conviction on the impeachment charge as the republicans fight to "not divide" (my invented term) the nation.
The infantile antics of Trump to state true facts to be false will be vindicated when he is acquitted.

angrysoba 24th January 2021 02:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 13372197)
It seems to me certain there will be no conviction on the impeachment charge as the republicans fight to "not divide" (my invented term) the nation.
The infantile antics of Trump to state true facts to be false will be vindicated when he is acquitted.

This is your opinion based on bets taken by bookmakers?

As was said before, Trump has name recognition and most speculation about running for president again. There's no reason why he wouldn't be favourite now. But that is also not a reason to say that he won't be convicted. I think it depends on GOP desire to risk another Trump primary run, or him taking his lunatic followers (a large slice of supporters of the Republicans) with him to some other party that he runs with his daughter as the nominee.

Squeegee Beckenheim 24th January 2021 03:20 AM

Worth saying again - McConnell has reportedly seen the insurrection as a way to rid the GOP of Trump, and has been canvassing Republicans for how they would vote. In a speech on the Senate Floor he blamed Trump for the insurrection for having fed the insurrectionists "lies".

In other words, indications are that McConnell may vote to convict, and it's unlikely that he would vote to convict unless he knew that there would be enough Republican votes to convict.

Whether Trump would be barred from office in the future would be down to a separate vote, but if McConnell really does see this as a way of getting rid of Trump, then you'd have thought that that vote would also go that way.

Ladewig 24th January 2021 09:01 AM

Also, it is a British company. They might have more European bettors. And those bettors might be saying to themselves, “Hmmm, could tens of millions of Americans be stupid. [checks newspaper] 400,000+. Yep, America be stupid enough to nominate him again? Let’s make a bet.”

dudalb 24th January 2021 03:58 PM

You also have the gop Splititng with the more rational Republicans running a indpendent candiate making it a 3 way race.

Samson 24th January 2021 04:05 PM

It certainly looks a mess, given Trump's sociopathy.

Samson 15th February 2021 03:55 AM

This is the latest.
Trump eased to 12 to 1, but since was at 10 to 1 and now 8 to 1

2024 Election Winner
Kamala Harris

7/2
Joe Biden

4/1
Donald Trump

8/1
Mike Pence

16/1
Nikki Haley

16/1


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