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-   -   2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=323162)

Brainster 20th September 2017 01:13 PM

2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker
 
I don't see a dedicated thread on this yet, although obviously the topic has come up in other threads quite often.

For starters, I'm going to use Wikipedia's list and update where it seems appropriate.

There are four key criteria, the satisfaction of any of which qualifies a person for inclusion on the list: 1) Has held any federal or statewide elected office; 2) Has been on a presidential cabinet; 3) Has been the mayor of a large city; or 4) Is very famous/rich. Essentially, these criteria exist to weed out the crackpot candidates like Jeff Boss.

Declared Candidates:
John Delaney (US Congressman from Maryland)

Undeclared, But Has Expressed Interest:

Joe Biden
Jerry Brown
Julian Castro
Stephen Colbert
Mark Cuban
John Hickenlooper
Eric Holder
Dwayne (the Rock) Johnson
John Kerry
Martin O'Malley
Bernie Sanders

(I moved Kerry up from Wikipedia's Potentials based on this article.

Potentials:

Richard Blumenthal
Cory Booker
Steve Bullock
Lincoln Chafee
Jamie Dimon
John Bel Edwards
Tulsi Gabbard
Eric Garcetti
Kamala Harris
Jason Kander
Caroline Kennedy
Amy Klobuchar
Mitch Landrieu
Jeff Merkley
Deval Patrick
Tom Steyer

Currently Not Running:

Sherrod Brown
Chelsea Clinton
Hillary Clinton
George Clooney
Andrew Cuomo
Bill de Blasio
Al Franken
Kirsten Gillibrand
Al Gore
Bob Iger
Jay Inslee
Tim Kaine
Joe Kennedy III
Terry McAuliffe
Seth Moulton
Chris Murphy
Gavin Newsom
Michelle Obama
Tim Ryan
Sheryl Sandberg
Adam Schiff
Howard Schultz
Mark Warner
Elizabeth Warren
Maxine Waters
Oprah Winfrey
Mark Zuckerberg

A few of the "Currently Not Running" candidates will be moving up pretty soon. Warren, Kaine, Cuomo and Gillibrand are certainly considered potentially strong candidates (Warren would probably become the betting favorite).

I do think some of the "Currently Not Running" candidates really are out of it. It's possible to imagine Hillary or Chelsea throwing their hats in the ring, I suppose, but I'd put my money on it not happening.

Caroline Kennedy? Well, she's already got a great campaign song, complete with a cheer line for every policy proposal (So Good, So Good, So Good!) But aside from that I don't see it happening.

Some of the lesser-known candidates on that list (Sandberg, Iger, Steyer) are billionaires.

We can add more specific categories later; "Forming an Exploratory Committee" would be a pretty good one, although of course it's empty now and probably will be for another year or so.

Additions and or/movement suggestions?

applecorped 20th September 2017 04:00 PM

For a minute I thought that was the Washington Generals lineup

Cleon 20th September 2017 04:13 PM

Prediction: DNC showdown will be Harris, Booker, and maybe Warren, with Harris finally taking the nomination.

The RNC will hem and haw, but no real challenge to Trump will develop because the Republicans can't figure out if they love him or hate him.

In the end, Trump wins, because as a country we're a bunch of idiots.

NoahFence 20th September 2017 05:36 PM

I like Marty O'Malley

C_Felix 20th September 2017 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cleon (Post 12002183)
Prediction: DNC showdown will be Harris, Booker, and maybe Warren, with Harris finally taking the nomination.

The RNC will hem and haw, but no real challenge to Trump will develop because the Republicans can't figure out if they love him or hate him.

In the end, Trump wins, because as a country we're a bunch of idiots.

Assuming he's still in office.

Brainster 20th September 2017 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoahFence (Post 12002246)
I like Marty O'Malley

I liked him last time around, but there really was no breathing room for him on the right side of Hillary.

Tero 20th September 2017 06:52 PM

It's almost not interesting. More of a newsworthy analysis will be the GOP and their candidate. It it is not Trump, Trump will spend his remaining months destroying that candidate.

shemp 20th September 2017 06:52 PM

I like cake.

Brainster 20th September 2017 07:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cleon (Post 12002183)
Prediction: DNC showdown will be Harris, Booker, and maybe Warren, with Harris finally taking the nomination.

A lot will depend on how strong or weak Trump and the economy are looking around the beginning of 2019, when candidates will have to begin organizing seriously. People forget that Clinton was something of a dark horse candidate in 1992; most of the Democrat heavyweights had decided not to run in 1991 when Bush, Sr. was riding high on the results of the first Persian Gulf War.

Some of the younger folks can afford to keep their powder dry if Trump looks tough. Obviously for Warren and a few others (e.g., Biden, Kerry, and Sanders) it will be now or never.

gerdbonk 20th September 2017 08:14 PM

Just so we're clear, I hereby state, and mean all that I say, that I never have been and never will be a candidate for President; that if nominated by either party, I should peremptorily decline; and even if unanimously elected I should decline to serve.

That being said, what's it pay?

Cleon 20th September 2017 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by C_Felix (Post 12002264)
Assuming he's still in office.

Yeah, well, I've seen no indication that Republicans are willing to remove him no matter what he does. And unless 2018 goes to Democrats in a massive landslide*, the Republicans will have to be willing for anything to be done.


* This is not going to happen.

The Don 20th September 2017 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by C_Felix (Post 12002264)
Assuming he's still in office.

He will be so long as he wants to be. No matter what comes out of investigations or what he does as President, the current GOP are too spineless to impeach or do anything else to get him out of office and will block any attempts by the Democratic Party and/or the forces of law and order to do likewise.

Brainache 20th September 2017 11:52 PM

I love the idea of Stephen Colbert running for President. Can't imagine how he would win, but stranger things have happened...

KatieG 21st September 2017 12:19 AM

Dwayne Johnson has been a fixture at Republican events. Not sure he's gonna jump to the Democratic party, but of course, all things are possible in politics.

TragicMonkey 21st September 2017 05:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 12002426)
He will be so long as he wants to be. No matter what comes out of investigations or what he does as President, the current GOP are too spineless to impeach or do anything else to get him out of office and will block any attempts by the Democratic Party and/or the forces of law and order to do likewise.

Trump is old. Trump is obese. Trump has anger issues, particularly when he is criticized. Trump has a stressful job that makes him the most criticized person on Earth.

He's 71. Average life expectancy for white American men is 76. Does he really seem likely to beat the average? Hate him or loathe him, he's probably not going to be around much longer.

Cleon 21st September 2017 06:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey (Post 12002707)
Trump is old. Trump is obese. Trump has anger issues, particularly when he is criticized. Trump has a stressful job that makes him the most criticized person on Earth.

He's 71. Average life expectancy for white American men is 76. Does he really seem likely to beat the average? Hate him or loathe him, he's probably not going to be around much longer.

Unlike the majority of Americans, he is rich enough to afford top-tier health care.

Belz... 21st September 2017 06:04 AM

2020?

Wake me up in 2019 for this.

Ziggurat 21st September 2017 06:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey (Post 12002707)
He's 71. Average life expectancy for white American men is 76. Does he really seem likely to beat the average? Hate him or loathe him, he's probably not going to be around much longer.

Life expectancy at birth is 76. But if you reach 71, then you're in a subset of the total population (you haven't died already), with different characteristics. The life expectancy of a white male alive at 71 is no longer 76, but actually 85.

Donal 21st September 2017 01:16 PM

You know some of the people on your list aren't actually Democrats, right?

PhantomWolf 21st September 2017 07:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brainster (Post 12001979)
It's possible to imagine Hillary or Chelsea throwing their hats in the ring, I suppose, but I'd put my money on it not happening.

Hillary has stated in a number of interviews now that she won't be running for public office again.

Monza 22nd September 2017 07:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cleon (Post 12002725)
Unlike the majority of Americans, he is rich enough to afford top-tier health care.

Have you seen the photo of his personal physician?

Bubba 23rd November 2017 10:46 PM

Republicans might be hoping Joe Biden gets nominated for 2020.

They would call attention to the footage of him fondling little girls too much for their comfort. It does look a little creepy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQ-YjGmpO4Q

Elagabalus 23rd November 2017 11:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bubba (Post 12088736)
Republicans might be hoping Joe Biden gets nominated for 2020.

They would call attention to the footage of him fondling little girls too much for their comfort. It does look a little creepy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQ-YjGmpO4Q

I soooo hope Paul Joseph Watson gets nominated for 2020!!

LSSBB 24th November 2017 12:18 AM

Peter Buttigieg has also been mentioned, in addition to Kander.

Oystein 24th November 2017 12:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bubba (Post 12088736)
Republicans might be hoping Joe Biden gets nominated for 2020.
...

Biden will be 86 then and the constitution forbids presidents above the of 80.

acbytesla 24th November 2017 12:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oystein (Post 12088779)
Biden will be 86 then and the constitution forbids presidents above the of 80.

No it doesn't. But I'll grant you that Biden isn't an option.

Qualifications for Presidency

Article 2, Section 1.

No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.

angrysoba 24th November 2017 01:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ziggurat (Post 12002742)
Life expectancy at birth is 76. But if you reach 71, then you're in a subset of the total population (you haven't died already), with different characteristics. The life expectancy of a white male alive at 71 is no longer 76, but actually 85.

Oh God! You mean Trump could be president for another 14 years?

Yeah, yeah, I know. The constitution...blah, blah, blah. But whats to stop Trump and the Republcans just ignoring it? How many divisions has the Supreme Court?

Travis 24th November 2017 03:19 AM

Anyone know which of these candidates is pure enough for the Bernie Bros?

angrysoba 24th November 2017 05:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis (Post 12088871)
Anyone know which of these candidates is pure enough for the Bernie Bros?

Taking a wild guess, id say... Bernie Sanders?

Belz... 24th November 2017 05:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oystein (Post 12088779)
Biden will be 86 then and the constitution forbids presidents above the of 80.

Er... biden's 75.

angrysoba 24th November 2017 06:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Argumemnon (Post 12088982)
Er... biden's 75.

He's rapidly aging.

Stacko 24th November 2017 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by acbytesla (Post 12088786)
No it doesn't. But I'll grant you that Biden isn't an option.

His handsy history rules him out regardless of age.

Craig4 24th November 2017 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis (Post 12088871)
Anyone know which of these candidates is pure enough for the Bernie Bros?

Hinkenlooper has the "owned his own brewpub" street cred with the hipsters. It's a good match, a self-made man versus a silver spoon baby like Trump. He'd be a great choice for the dems against The Hair.

Stacko 24th November 2017 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Craig4 (Post 12089531)
Hinkenlooper has the "owned his own brewpub" street cred with the hipsters. It's a good match, a self-made man versus a silver spoon baby like Trump. He'd be a great choice for the dems against The Hair.

He won't come close to passing the Bernie Bros purity test. If Hillary was too right wing for them, he's going to labelled an arch-conservative.

The_Animus 24th November 2017 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis (Post 12088871)
Anyone know which of these candidates is pure enough for the Bernie Bros?

At a minimum we'll need someone who has over a decade of top-secret security clearance training and experience, who has headed up the state department, and who told the FBI they thought the (c) in their e-mails meant an alphabetical marker despite there never being any (a) or (b) or (d) or (e) or (f) or (g) or (h)...

Craig4 24th November 2017 05:37 PM

I think there's a lot people will look past if they see a strong candidate who can beat Trump.

Brainster 24th November 2017 05:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oystein (Post 12088779)
Biden will be 86 then and the constitution forbids presidents above the of 80.

Not the US constitution. The only age requirement is 35 or older.

Bill de Blasio was reelected mayor of NYC pretty easily, and promptly announced that he was heading to Iowa.

Here's an article which purports to rank the contestants. Unfortunately it only goes 1-6, with some decided longshots in Sherrod Brown and Deval Patrick at the end.

JoeMorgue 24th November 2017 05:49 PM

It's still 2017. The election is 3 years away. This is like trying to predict the weather that far out. And Trump is not exactly a stabilizing force in the political landscape.

I'm sure the Democrats will pick another old guard member of their inner circle who they give the nomination to because "they've paid their dues" and that will... most probably be enough to beat Trump. Most probably.

But I still fear the Democrats will get the win lined up perfectly in the cross hairs, expertly adjust for windage, wait for the exact moment for the perfect shot, hold their breath.... and turn the gun around and shoot themselves right between the eyes and wonder where they went wrong... again.

Foolmewunz 24th November 2017 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeBentley (Post 12089563)
It's still 2017. The election is 3 years away. This is like trying to predict the weather that far out. And Trump is not exactly a stabilizing force in the political landscape.

I'm sure the Democrats will pick another old guard member of their inner circle who they give the nomination to because "they've paid their dues" and that will... most probably be enough to beat Trump. Most probably.

But I still fear the Democrats will get the win lined up perfectly in the cross hairs, expertly adjust for windage, wait for the exact moment for the perfect shot, hold their breath.... and turn the gun around and shoot themselves right between the eyes and wonder where they went wrong... again.

The actual nominee is barely on the radar, probably. The leadership of the party, aside from the last president, are doyennes. All too old. Even Warren, but certainly Hillary and Bernie and Joe and that crazy liberal California lady. And they're doing the right thing - stepping up and keeping the heat on and drawing the fire of the Kleptocrat in Chief and his butt-sniffing minions.

Around the '18 mid-terms we should start to see the next generation of contenders moving up, and the money bags picking sides. The problem is that the DNC is in complete disarray and I'd hope they learned from '16 not to latch onto a rainmaker like Kerry.

At the moment this thread is only useful for saying who shouldn't run. (Hint: When the conservatives pretend to favor someone, that person is poison.)

PhantomWolf 24th November 2017 08:33 PM

I'd say that is he decides to run, this guy as a pretty good shot, and the best thing is that since he's from Texas, his running could really throw a lot of chaos into the election by turning Texas Blue!


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