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-   -   Bitcoin - Part 3 (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=336407)

trustbutverify 21st October 2019 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 12863169)
I am used to this.
The silence of the lambs.

What the devil are you talking about now?

psionl0 21st October 2019 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 12859892)
For fundamental and technical reasons the crypto world is in structural price decline.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 12862075)
I guess in a moment of TA objectivity I see a substantial rally here in the deplorable "assets"

Proof that you are right 50% of the time.

Samson 22nd October 2019 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 12863621)
Proof that you are right 50% of the time.

I don't know why you make these statements, bitcoin is a very technical market, and everyone should profit from it, though I cerainly don't want to encourage the nonsense.
That rally has expired as expected and at 8070 now an outstanding short.

psionl0 22nd October 2019 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 12865732)
I don't know why you make these statements, bitcoin is a very technical market, and everyone should profit from it, though I cerainly don't want to encourage the nonsense.
That rally has expired as expected and at 8070 now an outstanding short.

I guess that I shouldn't say "50%". Your language is so vague that it could literally mean anything.

That "substantial rally" doesn't even register when you draw the price chart to the same scale that saw a moderate (20%) price drop on 24 September.

All I know for certain is that everybody who has ever predicted a terminal (or "structural") price decline has wound up with egg on their faces. Since you employ the same debating technique as the author of the money thread, you are likely to be permanently eggy despite your constant attempts to reinterpret your past statements.

The Don 23rd October 2019 01:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 12865991)
I guess that I shouldn't say "50%". Your language is so vague that it could literally mean anything.

That "substantial rally" doesn't even register when you draw the price chart to the same scale that saw a moderate (20%) price drop on 24 September.

All I know for certain is that everybody who has ever predicted a terminal (or "structural") price decline has wound up with egg on their faces. Since you employ the same debating technique as the author of the money thread, you are likely to be permanently eggy despite your constant attempts to reinterpret your past statements.

Exactly. Unless Bitcoin is at an all time high or has set a new benchmark low, Samson's "Bitcoin will go up/down" style "predictions" will eventually be right.

I realise this is an argument from incredulity but if I had an effective TA algorithm, I'd either keep very quiet about it and make millions or billions trading or sell it to a major financial institution for a huge sum. If I wasn't interested in personal enrichment, I'd donate most or all of the proceeds to charity.

I wouldn't be spending my time boasting about it on a minor internet forum.

Samson 23rd October 2019 02:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 12866095)
Exactly. Unless Bitcoin is at an all time high or has set a new benchmark low, Samson's "Bitcoin will go up/down" style "predictions" will eventually be right.

I realise this is an argument from incredulity but if I had an effective TA algorithm, I'd either keep very quiet about it and make millions or billions trading or sell it to a major financial institution for a huge sum. If I wasn't interested in personal enrichment, I'd donate most or all of the proceeds to charity.

I wouldn't be spending my time boasting about it on a minor internet forum.

The fate of the bitcoin scenic route is independant of my aspirations or aims for self enrichment. I am simply telling the thread where I would buy in real time, and where I would sell.
The thread is the record, and bitcoin affords candy from many babies.

GlennB 23rd October 2019 02:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 12862075)
I guess in a moment of TA objectivity I see a substantial rally here in the deplorable "assets"
7952 right now for bitcoin..

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 12865732)
That rally has expired as expected and at 8070 now an outstanding short.

That was a substantial rally?

Dr.Sid 23rd October 2019 02:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GlennB (Post 12866121)
That was a substantial rally?

Come on, it was almost 4% ! That's unheard of on market as stable as bitcoin.
:boxedin:

Samson 23rd October 2019 02:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GlennB (Post 12866121)
That was a substantial rally?

The rally exceeded 8350, so 5%.
But importantly the price was straight there after the post, so risk/reward was close to 1 to 25 on

Tolls 23rd October 2019 03:57 AM

So you're rich now then?

plague311 23rd October 2019 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tolls (Post 12866169)
So you're rich now then?

I know it's not entirely relevant to the thread, but if it makes any difference my Ripple hasn't made me rich. If Sam has something that will work for Ripple I'd be all ears.

Samson 23rd October 2019 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by plague311 (Post 12866783)
I know it's not entirely relevant to the thread, but if it makes any difference my Ripple hasn't made me rich. If Sam has something that will work for Ripple I'd be all ears.

Ripple was about 0.29 when I posted BC was a great short at 8070, and now seems to be 0.267, they all move roughly together.
I guess I will continue to post on bitcoin. As I keep trying to explain, the cryptos are very technical markets because no one has any idea of intrinsic value.
Of course I think that value is zero.

Roger Ramjets 23rd October 2019 06:23 PM

Bitcoin Price En Route to Descending Triangle Target of $5,000
Quote:

After a 45% Drop, Bitcoin Price Has a Lot More Room to Fall

Bitcoin price is currently trading below $7,500, an over 45% drop from the high of the 2019 parabolic rally that took the price of the leading crypto asset to $14,000 before being rejected... The powerful drop confirmed the chart pattern as valid and took the price of the first-ever cryptocurrency to $7,700 where it bounced and consolidated for a few weeks in what appeared to be a textbook bear flag. But the bear flag was formed along the way to what a prominent crypto analyst says is the eventual target of $5,000, according to a measurement taken from the height of the triangle to its base...

If for some reason $5,000 does breakdown further, Bitcoin would be at risk of potentially setting a new bear market low – suggesting that a bottom wasn’t actually in, and it could cause widespread fear and panic across the cryptocurrency market.
But...

Quote:

A strong bounce at $5,000 or any of the aforementioned support levels would result in a successful retest and confirmation of resistance turned support, and could give bulls enough confidence to be able to push Bitcoin back into a bull market, and out of the claws of bearish traders.
Is Bitcoin finished, or can it break free from the bear's claws and live to see another day? Tune in to next week's exciting episode!

psionl0 23rd October 2019 09:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets (Post 12867470)

Who'd have thought that you could find an article that was negative on bitcoin? And on the internet of all places! I salute your extraordinary detective skills! :thumbsup:

OTOH, with its talk about "triangles" (and other TA terms), lack of a time table and no failure of prediction definitions, you might as well just quote Samson.

Samson 23rd October 2019 11:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 12867636)
Who'd have thought that you could find an article that was negative on bitcoin? And on the internet of all places! I salute your extraordinary detective skills! :thumbsup:

OTOH, with its talk about "triangles" (and other TA terms), lack of a time table and no failure of prediction definitions, you might as well just quote Samson.

Interestingly the logarithmic triangle target is 6 thousand, I also noticed Roger's article.
But let us not quibble, I will post an idea to buy these cursed cryptos when appropriate simply because I can get it right.

Dr.Sid 24th October 2019 06:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 12867676)
Interestingly the logarithmic triangle target is 6 thousand, I also noticed Roger's article.
But let us not quibble, I will post an idea to buy these cursed cryptos when appropriate simply because I can get it right.

It's important to have dreams :thumbsup:

Samson 25th October 2019 07:11 PM

Xi Ping says embrace blockchain, without mentioning cryptos, but btc rallied 40 %
One mother of a short squeeze.

fromdownunder 25th October 2019 08:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 12867676)
Interestingly the logarithmic triangle target is 6 thousand, I also noticed Roger's article.
But let us not quibble, I will post an idea to buy these cursed cryptos when appropriate simply because I can get it right.


Based on Coindesk figures, Bitcoin started today at $7,452, jumped as high as $10,332 and is now $9,551 as I type. You must have a remarkable ability to be able to develop a program capable of predicting this sort of freak event.



Norm

Samson 25th October 2019 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fromdownunder (Post 12870283)
Based on Coindesk figures, Bitcoin started today at $7,452, jumped as high as $10,332 and is now $9,551 as I type. You must have a remarkable ability to be able to develop a program capable of predicting this sort of freak event.



Norm

Fair question.
The algorithm is very simple, as required by minimal optimisation.
I last said short at 8070, and the market got to about 7350, a decline of 8.2%

There is no point me saying what I would have done at that point. No one suggests they predict everything, but frequently there is a high probability of a particular direction, and success is about going further into the money than out of the money after placing the bet. A simple Turing tape will give a winning strategy.

fromdownunder 25th October 2019 11:15 PM

So you make it all your real or theoretical profits based on predictions made after the actual event. Got it.


Norm

Samson 26th October 2019 12:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fromdownunder (Post 12870354)
So you make it all your real or theoretical profits based on predictions made after the actual event. Got it.


Norm

No you did not got it Norm.
I said short at 8070, run a Turing tape to exit and enter more positions.
Any mathematician on this forum will understand my post, and if they do not they are not a mathematician.

Samson 26th October 2019 12:48 AM

And at 9449 right now, I suggest going short for 8600 target

psionl0 26th October 2019 01:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 12870387)
Any mathematician on this forum will understand that my post is nonsense, and if they do not they are not a mathematician.

ftfy. You don't even have to be a mathematician to understand this.

Face it, predicting bitcoin's price day to day is like predicting next week's lotto numbers. Pure soothsaying.

Based on history, one might be able to make some predictions for the long term price of bitcoin with a small degree of confidence. For example, there is a reasonable probability that the price of bitcoin will again exceed $20,000 - maybe by a big margin. However, we may be looking at years before this happens.

Samson 26th October 2019 01:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 12870414)
ftfy. You don't even have to be a mathematician to understand this.

Face it, predicting bitcoin's price day to day is like predicting next week's lotto numbers. Pure soothsaying.

Based on history, one might be able to make some predictions for the long term price of bitcoin with a small degree of confidence. For example, there is a reasonable probability that the price of bitcoin will again exceed $20,000 - maybe by a big margin. However, we may be looking at years before this happens.

20,000 looks like zero in a probability play.
infinity is the number of ico's possible, Bitcoin value should be divided by infinty.

psionl0 26th October 2019 01:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 12870416)
20,000 looks like zero in a probability play.
infinity is the number of ico's possible, Bitcoin value should be divided by infinty.

Did you again forget that this argument has already been thoroughly rebutted - frequently?

Samson 26th October 2019 02:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 12870422)
Did you again forget that this argument has already been thoroughly rebutted - frequently?

It will always be my proposition, but I read all links if you care to repost any rebuttal.

psionl0 26th October 2019 02:38 AM

No you don't.

Samson 26th October 2019 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 12870443)
No you don't.

I read a great deal about cryptos, but I have not read that an exact replica of bitcoin cannot be established. Maybe there is intellectual property involved, but that would contravene the doctrine of freedom.

psionl0 26th October 2019 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 12870936)
I read a great deal about cryptos, but I have not read that an exact replica of bitcoin cannot be established. Maybe there is intellectual property involved, but that would contravene the doctrine of freedom.

That is not your argument (and there are no "exact replicas" of bitcoin).

Your argument is that all cryptos are bitcoin and you repeat it constantly as if nobody has ever pointed out how moronic an argument it is.

If the alt-coins had bled money away from the bitcoin market then you should be able to tell us how much has been bled and what the price of bitcoin would be otherwise. Of course you can't and have no intention of doing so because you are not interested in facts. You only want to sound authoritative.

Samson 30th October 2019 05:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 12870988)
That is not your argument (and there are no "exact replicas" of bitcoin).

Your argument is that all cryptos are bitcoin and you repeat it constantly as if nobody has ever pointed out how moronic an argument it is.

If the alt-coins had bled money away from the bitcoin market then you should be able to tell us how much has been bled and what the price of bitcoin would be otherwise. Of course you can't and have no intention of doing so because you are not interested in facts. You only want to sound authoritative.

Authoritative no, an enquiring demeanour I thought.
I have become convinced bitcoin will get to 2000 soon, so shorting more at 9126 looks good.

Dr.Sid 30th October 2019 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 12874841)
Authoritative no, an enquiring demeanour I thought.
I have become convinced bitcoin will get to 2000 soon, so shorting more at 9126 looks good.

That's almost prediction. At least you got us number. Now give us a date.

Samson 6th November 2019 01:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid (Post 12875108)
That's almost prediction. At least you got us number. Now give us a date.

I find this disconcerting to say the violation of the co2 constraint is not holding.
This disgraceful enterprise is set to cast greater emissions as the insatiable gluttony of the hold ons for dear life is encouraged.
God does not exist, but if she does please exterminate the vermin promoting this enterprise.

psionl0 6th November 2019 04:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 12882690)
I find this disconcerting to say the violation of the co2 constraint is not holding.
This disgraceful enterprise is set to cast greater emissions as the insatiable gluttony of the hold ons for dear life is encouraged.
God does not exist, but if she does please exterminate the vermin promoting this enterprise.

So, no date then?

Roger Ramjets 6th November 2019 10:43 AM

Bitcoin’s record price surge of 2017 was caused by a single person
Quote:

Bitcoin's dramatic price surge in 2017 that saw it reach record highs was caused by a single cryptocurrency trader, according to a new study...

"This one large player or entity either exhibited clairvoyant market timing or exerted an extremely large price impact on bitcoin that is not observed in aggregate flows from other smaller traders,"...

This year bitcoin's price has risen steadily and it is currently trading at around $9,300, having briefly reached above $12,000 in June. It remains prone to sudden swings in price, which some attribute to market manipulation by so-called bitcoin whales that are able to influence the price through a single trade.

A flash crash that wiped $1,000 from bitcoin's value in less than an hour was triggered by the sale of 5,000 bitcoins - worth around $40 million at the time of the trade.
But the unpredictable actions of 'whales' doesn't make TA invalid, just... unreliable.

Samson 6th November 2019 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 12882800)
So, no date then?

No date, and I have no stake in it. Nevertheless the current meandering price looks like distribution, ready for a sharp fall. I would be shorting it here still at
9295

Dr.Sid 6th November 2019 03:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 12883453)
No date, and I have no stake in it. Nevertheless the current meandering price looks like distribution, ready for a sharp fall. I would be shorting it here still at
9295

It will go up, then down, and then up again. I'm sure.

psionl0 6th November 2019 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 12883453)
No date, . . . .

So when you used the word "soon" it was meaningless. You could claim success if the price dropped to $2,000 in the next infinity years.

Samson 7th November 2019 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 12883570)
So when you used the word "soon" it was meaningless. You could claim success if the price dropped to $2,000 in the next infinity years.

I expect the drop during my lifetime, as I repeatedly say there is infinite supply of this detritus.

psionl0 7th November 2019 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 12884556)
I expect the drop during my lifetime, as I repeatedly say there is infinite supply of this detritus lie and act as if my drivel has never been addressed - let alone rebutted.

ftfy.

So are you going to die "soon"?

Samson 8th November 2019 02:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 12884656)
ftfy.

So are you going to die "soon"?

Here is another way of imagining this issue.
If the price of bitcoin drops to 2k US, will you claim that this is completely unrelated to the presence of 2000 lookalikes to choose from.
Gold will never be created the way bitcoin clones can be created, and indeed are created.
Remember Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger

"This will end badly".


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