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-   -   Bitcoin - Part 3 (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=336407)

Dr.Sid 27th November 2019 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lomiller (Post 12906316)
Risk is usually associated with high levels of variability, which isn’t the problem people have with bitcoin.

Not high levels of variability. High levels of unpredictability. Which certainly applies to bitcoin.

lomiller 27th November 2019 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid (Post 12906379)
Not high levels of variability. High levels of unpredictability. Which certainly applies to bitcoin.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/variability.asp


Quote:

Variability, almost by definition, is the extent to which data points in a statistical distribution or data set diverge—vary—from the average value, as well as the extent to which these data points differ from each other.
Quote:

Professional investors perceive the risk of an asset class to be directly proportional to the variability of its returns.

Mycroft 27th November 2019 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 12906309)
The same principle applies to crypto currencies. It is of critical importance whether the crypto is being maintained by a person or by a system that renders the records immutable. (See OneCoin above).

That may be important to someone planning to use said currency. It would be of no importance to someone who isn't planning on using it, with the possible exception of someone with a loved one thinking of investing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 12906309)
That's exactly what you are saying.

No. Your bias is altering your perception.

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 12906309)
You say "trivial importance" because you want everybody to believe that bitcoin is as bad as a ponzi scheme. If they believe that it is a ponzi scheme then that is even better for you.

I am much better informed on what I want than you are. One could even say I am the world's foremost authority.

You incorrectly perceive me as wanting to smear Bitcoin when the reality is I only said it is of trivial importance if someone who doesn't like it and will never use it understands that it is not a specific type of scam.

psionl0 27th November 2019 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mycroft (Post 12906454)
You incorrectly perceive me as wanting to smear Bitcoin when the reality is I only said it is of trivial importance if someone who doesn't like it and will never use it understands that it is not a specific type of scam.

It is very telling that you didn't use the words "not a scam". It shows that you still want the lie that bitcoin is a scam to persist. You are not fooling anybody. You care very much that false information must be put out about bitcoin.

Mycroft 28th November 2019 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 12906810)
It is very telling that you didn't use the words "not a scam". It shows that you still want the lie that bitcoin is a scam to persist. You are not fooling anybody. You care very much that false information must be put out about bitcoin.

You're claiming to have revealed my secret agenda?

Whatever.

psionl0 28th November 2019 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mycroft (Post 12907413)
You're claiming to have revealed my secret agenda?

Whatever.

Ordinarily a critical thinker would want the correct explanation but you have been arguing yourself blue in the face that in the case of bitcoin, the truth doesn't matter.

If that doesn't reek of an agenda then I don't know what does.

Mycroft 29th November 2019 12:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 12907533)
Ordinarily a critical thinker would want the correct explanation but you have been arguing yourself blue in the face that in the case of bitcoin, the truth doesn't matter.

Then you've been misunderstanding my argument.

I'm essentially saying it's not necessary for everyone to have the same level of understanding on any topic, not just Bitcoin.

For someone who is thinking about being an investor, or who is promoting it as an investment to others, then absolutely they should understand it well enough to distinguish it's characteristics from any number of scams. They should also be held to being truthful in making claims regarding Bitcoin.

But for the vast majority of people who will not be investing in Bitcoin for any reason? What difference does it make what their understanding is?

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 12907533)
If that doesn't reek of an agenda then I don't know what does.

And this is the real issue, you are attributing any disagreement with you to some "agenda". Bitcoin isn't a group of people targeted by a common bigotry, it's an abstraction created by computers working a mathematical formula. It doesn't have feelings to be hurt nor suffer from marginalization.

Belz... 29th November 2019 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 12905597)
On the contrary. It is very relevant - to you.

Why? Because "bitcoin is risky" doesn't sound bad enough for you. OTOH allow people to think that it is a scam then suddenly it becomes a new ball game. So **** the facts!

I see now that your reflexive defense of BTC has gotten so bad that not only must you attack me even when I agree with you, you must lie about my motivations.

If you must know -- and if you bothered to check -- I initially thought BTC was a scam but decided that, although it's still possible, it probably wasn't. Now my only problem with it, aside from its use by criminals, is that it is, in your own words, risky. In fact that's the only thing I've been arguing with you over. So that you pretend that it isn't is downright dishonest, since you know that what you said above is not true.

Which certainly supports my earlier evaluation of your own motivations here.

Belz... 29th November 2019 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mycroft (Post 12907413)
You're claiming to have revealed my secret agenda?

Whatever.

You too?

Damn. He reads us like a book, doesn't he? :rolleyes:

psionl0 29th November 2019 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mycroft (Post 12908143)
But for the vast majority of people who will not be investing in Bitcoin for any reason? What difference does it make what their understanding is?

As I have said repeatedly, there is a huge difference between an investment that is inherently risky and a scam run by a shonky operator.

Why are you so determined that nobody know the difference?

psionl0 29th November 2019 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Belz... (Post 12908163)
Now my only problem with it, aside from its use by criminals, is that it is, in your own words, risky.

:rolleyes:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Belz... (Post 12908163)
In fact that's the only thing I've been arguing with you over.

:rolleyes: :rolleyes:

p0lka 29th November 2019 05:47 PM

As long as there's a possibility to make value out of it, who cares?

psionl0 29th November 2019 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by p0lka (Post 12908403)
As long as there's a possibility to make value out of it, who cares?

Apparently, quite a few people on this thread.

All scams die sooner or later and anybody who is still invested in them loses the lot. OTOH there is no indication that bitcoin has an expiry date.

So guess which word is bandied about the most in this thread (hint: "scam").

Mycroft 29th November 2019 07:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 12908386)
As I have said repeatedly, there is a huge difference between an investment that is inherently risky and a scam run by a shonky operator.

Why are you so determined that nobody know the difference?

Please go back to post #327 and read the rest of the post. That should be more than sufficient to explain that which you do not understand.

psionl0 29th November 2019 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mycroft (Post 12908455)
Please go back to post #327 and read the rest of the post. That should be more than sufficient to explain that which you do not understand.

The rest of the post doesn't explain anything.

Just answer this question: Do you believe that bitcoin is a scam or not?

Mycroft 30th November 2019 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 12908459)
The rest of the post doesn't explain anything.

It would if you read it and wanted to understand. If you don't, then there is not much I can do to force understanding on you.

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 12908459)
Just answer this question: Do you believe that bitcoin is a scam or not?

In and of itself, no.

psionl0 30th November 2019 11:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mycroft (Post 12908774)
It would if you read it and wanted to understand. If you don't, then there is not much I can do to force understanding on you.



In and of itself, no.

There is no understanding you.

You originally posted that bitcoin didn't fit the definition of a ponzi scheme. You could have added that it was still a bad investment. You could have even added some hyperbole if you wished.

Yet, incredibly, for some unfathomable reason you added "Although it's not a big deal using the word incorrectly". Unbelievable!

And when I questioned you about it, you actually doubled down on this ridiculous argument. You labeled anybody who takes you to task on this a "pendant". You have been screaming blue murder for 2 pages now that uncritical thinking about bitcoin is of "trivial importance".

It's no wonder that I find your motives suspect.

Mycroft 1st December 2019 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 12909237)
There is no understanding you.

Because, for whatever reason, you decline to read/pay attention to the parts where I explain it quite well.

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 12909237)
It's no wonder that I find your motives suspect.

Actually, it is a wonder. Why are you so emotionally invested in Bitcoin?

psionl0 1st December 2019 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mycroft (Post 12909504)
Because, for whatever reason, you decline to read/pay attention to the parts where I explain it quite well.

No you don't. You just say the truth doesn't matter.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mycroft (Post 12909504)
Actually, it is a wonder. Why are you so emotionally invested in Bitcoin?

I am only interested in the truth. Of course you will call that "emotionally invested in Bitcoin" because you don't want the truth to be known.

Samson 2nd December 2019 01:15 AM

The smart idiot greedy money just shorted bitcoin at 7223 again.

6400 next stop
Valley of death, John Bunyan.

Pilgrims progress, I should not elevate Bitcrap to something worth allegory.

Samson 2nd December 2019 01:32 AM

I should add that there has never been a weekly price chart of any commodity that looks so bleak. Peter Schiff, the goldbug correctly understands the difference best described by

"all that glitters is not gold".

Bitcoin zero is a great slogan for uber realists.

jrhowell 2nd December 2019 07:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 12910111)
6400 next stop

Care to put a time frame on that prediction?

Dr.Sid 2nd December 2019 07:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jrhowell (Post 12910300)
Care to put a time frame on that prediction?

Most likely to happen between 6500 and 6300.

psionl0 2nd December 2019 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jrhowell (Post 12910300)
Care to put a time frame on that prediction?

Never. The idea is to give advice that will cause speculators to lose money on bitcoin.

Belz... 2nd December 2019 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 12908388)
:rolleyes:


:rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Wow, that is a convincing response.

Do you have anything specific to say, or did you just get caught in a lie?

Belz... 2nd December 2019 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mycroft (Post 12909504)
Because, for whatever reason, you decline to read/pay attention to the parts where I explain it quite well.

As you can see in his last response to me, it's not just you.

psionl0 2nd December 2019 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Belz... (Post 12910380)
Wow, that is a convincing response.

Do you have anything specific to say, or did you just get caught in a lie?

The objective data is that in spite of any other shortcomings of bitcoin, it is not being run by some scammer who is about to run and take the money of anybody who invested in him.

It may be overrated as a product that that is all it is - something that is bought and sold (mainly by speculators). It might be weird that speculators continue to this day to trade it at prices far higher than anybody might expect them to be but that is the reality.

The lie is in not correcting the notion that bitcoin itself is a scam. It invites the erroneous conclusion that all the speculators are being fleeced by an operator (or group of operators). If you truly believe that it is just excessively risky then there is no need for you to gild the lily and continue to say "it might be a scam".

Belz... 2nd December 2019 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 12910513)
The objective data is that in spite of any other shortcomings of bitcoin, it is not being run by some scammer who is about to run and take the money of anybody who invested in him.

I already agreed to that years ago. So why did you reply with rolling eyes emoticons?

Quote:

The lie is in not correcting the notion that bitcoin itself is a scam.
It's not entirely eliminated as a possibility, even if it's unlikely. Do you understand the difference?

Dr.Sid 2nd December 2019 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Belz... (Post 12910523)
It's not entirely eliminated as a possibility, even if it's unlikely. Do you understand the difference?

Everybody knows the rules, so it's hardly a scam.
Any estimates what would happen, if Satoshi Nakamoto, who is estimated to hold up to 1M BTC, would just sell ? That's about 5% of the total, and sums much lower are believed to be behind substantial price movements.
But then, he can't "just sell". Where ? How ? He would have to spread the coins first, and those coins are keenly watched.

psionl0 2nd December 2019 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Belz... (Post 12910523)
I already agreed to that years ago. So why did you reply with rolling eyes emoticons?

So you agree that it is not a scam.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Belz... (Post 12910523)
It's not entirely eliminated as a possibility, even if it's unlikely. Do you understand the difference?

Like I said, that's the lie. You know it's not a scam but you still insist that "it's not entirely eliminated as a possibility" that bitcoin is a scam.

Samson 7th December 2019 02:47 AM

I think hindsight may play a role.
Bitcoin zero means ponzi, bitcoin zero does not mean scam.

Scam and ponzi occupy different orbits.

Discuss, not sure if I am making sense.

Humble.

Samson 10th December 2019 03:01 AM

The technicals are predicting bitcoin one thousand

Dr.Sid 10th December 2019 03:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 12919646)
The technicals are predicting bitcoin one thousand

Well, good luck with that.

jrhowell 10th December 2019 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 12919646)
The technicals are predicting bitcoin one thousand

By when?

psionl0 10th December 2019 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jrhowell (Post 12920735)
By when?

LOL this reminds me of post #344

Samson 11th December 2019 01:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jrhowell (Post 12920735)
By when?

I suggest April 2020, I think it is the only way to clean out the froth.
It will still be an 18 billion dollar enterprise. Bitcoin cash is near record lows, no idea what that implies.

fromdownunder 11th December 2019 01:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 12920923)
I suggest April 2020, I think it is the only way to clean out the froth.
It will still be an 18 billion dollar enterprise. Bitcoin cash is near record lows, no idea what that implies.


Welcome to Planet Earth.


Norm

jrhowell 11th December 2019 01:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psionl0 (Post 12920801)
LOL this reminds me of post #344

Perhaps technical analysis relies on the uncertainty principle. When the shape of the graph gives you a specific price the time frame becomes indefinite.

psionl0 11th December 2019 05:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jrhowell (Post 12920931)
Perhaps technical analysis relies on the uncertainty principle. When the shape of the graph gives you a specific price the time frame becomes indefinite.

Or maybe it's just a buzz word that some people use in an attempt to give the impression that they know what they are talking about.

Samson 15th December 2019 12:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jrhowell (Post 12920931)
Perhaps technical analysis relies on the uncertainty principle. When the shape of the graph gives you a specific price the time frame becomes indefinite.

Actually land bankers use technical analysis, they see patterns. If they pay cash they are immune to time worries. The Chinese own a lot of New Zealand with cash, they never sell. It is technical analysis that forecasts urban areas spread when the living is easy as it is in Auckland, temperate, water security, no climate change hazard.
Technical analysis is everywhere, utilised unwittingly.

And in bitcoin.


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