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JoeMorgue 6th September 2020 11:56 AM

2020 Congressional Election
 
General purpose thread for news, discussion, debate, predictions, questions etc.
____________________________________

Background info:

The United States Congress is the head of the Legislative Branch. It consists of two houses:

- The Senate. 100 seats. Each state, regardless of population, gets to elect two Senators each.

- The House of Representatives. 435 seats. States get a number of Representatives ranging from 1 to 53 depending on population.

//These number do not account for non-voting members elected by American territories such as Puerto Rico//

All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 35 out of 100 seats in the United States Senate are up for grabs in November.

Currently the Democrats hold a majority in the House (232 to the Republicans 198, with one Libertarian and 4 vacant) while the Republicans hold a majority in the Senate (53 to the Democrats 45, with 2 Independents who generally caucus and vote with the Democrats giving them a de-facto 47)

Current political polling suggests a tight race for the Senate, with a 50-50 split not being one of the less likely outcomes, with the Democrats retaining a majority in the house.

Either party achieving a super-majority in either of the Houses looks extremely unlikely.

The Don 6th September 2020 12:05 PM

Due to a combination of industrial scale voter suppression, gerrymandering and wholesale discounting of postal votes, President Trump will be re-elected, the GOP will increase their majority in the senate and will regain control of the house with a comfortable majority.

Craig4 6th September 2020 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13214541)
Due to a combination of industrial scale voter suppression, gerrymandering and wholesale discounting of postal votes, President Trump will be re-elected, the GOP will increase their majority in the senate and will regain control of the house with a comfortable majority.

The lesson with gerrymandering is that it doesn't work for very long. The Democrats took the House by winning those gerrymandered districts. Not all states have voter suppression issues. Dems control the voting mechanisms in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Gerrymandering doesn't matter at all in the Senate or presidential races. And really, no one is talking about the Republicans taking back the House. Trump would need to be both leading and by a wide margin for that to happen.

Safe-Keeper 6th September 2020 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13214541)
Due to a combination of industrial scale voter suppression, gerrymandering and wholesale discounting of postal votes, President Trump will be re-elected, the GOP will increase their majority in the senate and will regain control of the house with a comfortable majority.

Trump only barely won in 2016, by a total of only, what was it, 14 000 or 40 000 votes across several states he needed to win? Of course more of the votes this year will be by mail, and Trump has had four years in which to sabotage things, but this election-rigging can only get him so far.

Lurch 6th September 2020 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13214541)
Due to a combination of industrial scale voter suppression, gerrymandering and wholesale discounting of postal votes, President Trump will be re-elected, the GOP will increase their majority in the senate and will regain control of the house with a comfortable majority.

With this grim forecast as a fiducial, I'm pretty sure there'll be *something* for liberals to cheer. Jeez, if it turned out that bad, there'd be insufficient crisis councillors in the nation.

SuburbanTurkey 9th September 2020 06:18 AM

This was posted elsewhere, but it should be noted that Nancy Pelosi and other DP heavyweights endorsed Joe Kennedy III in a primary challenge for progressive Ed Markey's incumbent Senate seat. For all the talk of party unity and the need to defeat Trump, money and political attention was squandered in order to try to challenge a relatively progressive Democratic Senator with a centrist candidate.

Kennedy lost. I guess that last name doesn't have the same cache it used to. Back to Hyannis Joe.

Sherkeu 9th September 2020 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey (Post 13217419)
This was posted elsewhere, but it should be noted that Nancy Pelosi and other DP heavyweights endorsed Joe Kennedy III in a primary challenge for progressive Ed Markey's incumbent Senate seat. For all the talk of party unity and the need to defeat Trump, money and political attention was squandered in order to try to challenge a relatively progressive Democratic Senator with a centrist candidate.

Kennedy lost. I guess that last name doesn't have the same cache it used to. Back to Hyannis Joe.

Isn't this the same thing they did with Biden vs Bernie/Warren/et al?
Except Biden won out for that one.
But I suppose that is national and perhaps things that are national are more moderate than individual local races.

Firestone 12th September 2020 01:58 PM

Lindsey Graham tweets:

"It’s been 72 hours since I released 11 years of state and federal tax returns and challenged @HarrisonJaime to do the same. Crickets. What is he hiding?"

https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/...637922818?s=19

varwoche 12th September 2020 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13214541)
Due to a combination of industrial scale voter suppression, gerrymandering and wholesale discounting of postal votes, President Trump will be re-elected, the GOP will increase their majority in the senate and will regain control of the house with a comfortable majority.

I would bet everything I own against this, even knowing your track record.

This is so silly that I'm demoting you from prescient to broken clock. :p

Craig4 13th September 2020 05:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Firestone (Post 13221442)
Lindsey Graham tweets:

"It’s been 72 hours since I released 11 years of state and federal tax returns and challenged @HarrisonJaime to do the same. Crickets. What is he hiding?"

https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/...637922818?s=19

This seems like a perilous road to go down for a piece of Trumptrash like Graham.

theprestige 13th September 2020 07:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Firestone (Post 13221442)
Lindsey Graham tweets:

"It’s been 72 hours since I released 11 years of state and federal tax returns and challenged @HarrisonJaime to do the same. Crickets. What is he hiding?"

https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/...637922818?s=19

Ah yes: The eleven years of Lindsey Graham's tax returns that we've all been so urgently awaiting, ever since he launched his political career. 28 years ago. Hopefully Harrison Jaime DGAF about Graham's twitter call-outs.

Craig4 13th September 2020 06:01 PM

Not that I care about the Trumptrash at the rally in Nevada tonight. However, we know the virus passes from animals to people and the attendees could pass the virus to real people who have value.

alfaniner 13th September 2020 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Craig4 (Post 13222322)
Not that I care about the Trumptrash at the rally in Nevada tonight. However, we know the virus passes from animals to people and the attendees could pass the virus to real people who have value.

Not to mention, to real animals that have value!

Ladewig 13th September 2020 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Firestone (Post 13221442)
Lindsey Graham tweets:

"It’s been 72 hours since I released 11 years of state and federal tax returns and challenged @HarrisonJaime to do the same. Crickets. What is he hiding?"

https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/...637922818?s=19

Please, please let Trump repost this without reading the whole thing.

The Don 14th September 2020 02:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by varwoche (Post 13221471)
I would bet everything I own against this, even knowing your track record.

This is so silly that I'm demoting you from prescient to broken clock. :p

....I really, really hope you are right.

I really, really fear you are not. :(

Segnosaur 16th September 2020 01:07 PM

Some recent polling numbers for the U.S. senate races:

(Via: Politico)

- Susan "He's learned his Lesson" Collins is WAY down in the Maine senate race. (She is behind Sarah Gideon by 54-42.) I thought the Democrats had a good shot at taking this seat, but a margin like that is more than I was expecting. Hopefully Collins has learned her lesson.

- Lady Lindsey is currently tied with his opponent (Harrison) in South Carolina. (Strangely enough, Harrison actually rates better who is seen as more favorable. Sadly with voter suppression, I don't have much hope of the Democrats winning S.C.

- Sadly, Moscow Mitch is leading in Kentucky. But being the backwards state that it is, its not surprising that Kentucky is sticking with the turtle. (I have sometimes wondered if it would be more fitting to see Moscow Mitch lose, or see him win but have the GOP lose the senate so he loses his power.)

Monza 17th September 2020 05:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Firestone (Post 13221442)
Lindsey Graham tweets:

"It’s been 72 hours since I released 11 years of state and federal tax returns and challenged @HarrisonJaime to do the same. Crickets. What is he hiding?"

https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/...637922818?s=19


Harrison released his returns this week and tweeted in reply, "Done. Now do President Trump."

Firestone 17th September 2020 06:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monza (Post 13226234)
Harrison released his returns this week and tweeted in reply, "Done. Now do President Trump."

Of course.

Own goal by Graham, as apparently South Carolina asked the candidates to release their tax returns.
Quote:

The State asked both campaigns to release their candidate’s tax returns.

https://www.thestate.com/news/politi...245737230.html

JoeMorgue 17th September 2020 06:03 AM

Is this just becoming some weird affect now?

Raise your hand if anyone's tax return ever caused you to vote or not vote for them.

Firestone 18th September 2020 05:00 AM

538's Senate forecast is live.

The gist: Democrats *probably* need 4 or 5 pickups, depending on the presidency, since Doug Jones is an underdog in AL-Sen. A lot of these races are against incumbents in red states. Still, Democrats have so many opportunities (~12!) that they're slight favorites to do it.
(Nate Silver on Twitter)

JoeMorgue 26th September 2020 08:36 PM

The Minnesota 2nd District Congressional Race is being delayed until next year after a 3rd party candidate has died.

Adam Weeks, 38, was a farmer running under the Legal Marijuana Now Party against freshman Democratic Rep. Angie Craig. Minnesota has a state law requiring a delay of election of a candidate dies with 79 days of the election.

Minnesota's 2nd District is considered a tight race between Craig and Republican challenger Tyler Kistner.

Segnosaur 28th September 2020 02:27 PM

Lady Linsey Graham seems to be having some funding problems...

From: Politico
Twice on Thursday, Graham...went on Fox News Channel and implored viewers to donate to his campaign...“I’m getting overwhelmed,” Graham told conservative talk-show host Sean Hannity Thursday night. “...Help me. They’re killing me, money-wise. Help me. You helped me last week — help me again."

Maybe we can hold a telethon for him.

Now, I admit, despite a close race, the republicans will still probably hold on to the seat. But it is nice to see them sweating over it.

And the folks at the Lincoln project have picked up on things.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1309620608561414144

pgwenthold 28th September 2020 03:47 PM

One issue is that the GOP is having to funnel money into places that used to not need it. Lee Zeldin is spending like $6 mil in Long Island. He won his seat by 8% in 2018 but is facing a bigger challenge this time around (the the democrats are putting some weight into it as a flippable district).

Segnosaur 28th September 2020 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgwenthold (Post 13240163)
One issue is that the GOP is having to funnel money into places that used to not need it. Lee Zeldin is spending like $6 mil in Long Island. He won his seat by 8% in 2018 but is facing a bigger challenge this time around (the the democrats are putting some weight into it as a flippable district).

I am actually surprised... I thought the republicans party had decided not to fund congressional house races this time (saving their money for the Presidential race.)

Sent from my LM-X320 using Tapatalk

pgwenthold 28th September 2020 04:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Segnosaur (Post 13240223)
I am actually surprised... I thought the republicans party had decided not to fund congressional house races this time (saving their money for the Presidential race.)

Sent from my LM-X320 using Tapatalk

Well maybe Lee Zeldin has a stockpile, but he's not going to be sending it on to the President

Polaris 28th September 2020 09:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Segnosaur (Post 13240043)
Lady Linsey Graham seems to be having some funding problems...

From: Politico
Twice on Thursday, Graham...went on Fox News Channel and implored viewers to donate to his campaign...“I’m getting overwhelmed,” Graham told conservative talk-show host Sean Hannity Thursday night. “...Help me. They’re killing me, money-wise. Help me. You helped me last week — help me again."

Maybe we can hold a telethon for him.

Now, I admit, despite a close race, the republicans will still probably hold on to the seat. But it is nice to see them sweating over it.

And the folks at the Lincoln project have picked up on things.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1309620608561414144

This might have something to do with it:

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/...-defend-mccain

One of Graham's long-time donors shifted his money to his opponent for the following reasons:

Quote:

“I asked myself, ‘What is the character of a man who will not defend his best friend? If he won’t defend John McCain, why would I expect him to defend any of us in South Carolina?’” Richard Wilkerson, the retired chairman and president of Michelin North America, wrote in an op-ed for the Greenville News.

“My conclusion was that he was more interested in currying favor than in honoring the memory of a true American hero whom he had described as his best friend," he added. "I was extremely disappointed.”

Stacyhs 28th September 2020 11:16 PM

Lindsey Graham wouldn't recognize 'character' if was spelled out for him in a dictionary.

I think both Cindy and Meghan McCain have been hugely disappointed in him and disgusted by his betrayal of John McCain.

SuburbanTurkey 29th September 2020 04:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Segnosaur (Post 13240043)
Lady Linsey Graham seems to be having some funding problems...

From: Politico
Twice on Thursday, Graham...went on Fox News Channel and implored viewers to donate to his campaign...“I’m getting overwhelmed,” Graham told conservative talk-show host Sean Hannity Thursday night. “...Help me. They’re killing me, money-wise. Help me. You helped me last week — help me again."

Maybe we can hold a telethon for him.

Now, I admit, despite a close race, the republicans will still probably hold on to the seat. But it is nice to see them sweating over it.

And the folks at the Lincoln project have picked up on things.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1309620608561414144

Not saying it isn't true, but desperate pleas for money is a common tactic in political fundraising. Telling your audience that you're getting clobbered may just be a ploy.

Graham seems to be facing a more serious challenge than normal, but hoping for a Democrat in S. Carolina is long shot odds.

Trebuchet 29th September 2020 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey (Post 13240594)
Not saying it isn't true, but desperate pleas for money is a common tactic in political fundraising. Telling your audience that you're getting clobbered may just be a ploy.

Graham seems to be facing a more serious challenge than normal, but hoping for a Democrat in S. Carolina is long shot odds.

Won't you please help stop the suffering?

ETA: "autographed picture of Lindsay Graham enjoying a hot dog" is a nice, though homophobic, touch.

Dread Pirate Roberts 3rd October 2020 01:51 PM

Cal Cunningham, who is trying to defeat GOP incumbent Thom Tillis in a very competitive race in NC, apologizes for sending sexy texts to a woman not his wife.

Trebuchet 3rd October 2020 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dread Pirate Roberts (Post 13246368)
Cal Cunningham, who is trying to defeat GOP incumbent Thom Tillis in a very competitive race in NC, apologizes for sending sexy texts to a woman not his wife.

I saw some of those on Twitter. Tamest sexts ever

Checkmite 3rd October 2020 06:30 PM

There was a debate tonight between Lindsey Graham and Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison. Harrison began the debate by setting up a giant plexiglass shield next to his podium facing Graham's.

By all accounts, the debate was a one-sided savaging and Graham was visibly helpless for most of it.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EjcrlVJW...jpg&name=small

Skeptic Ginger 3rd October 2020 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Checkmite (Post 13246552)
There was a debate tonight between Lindsey Graham and Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison. Harrison began the debate by setting up a giant plexiglass shield next to his podium facing Graham's.

By all accounts, the debate was a one-sided savaging and Graham was visibly helpless for most of it.


:dl:

Segnosaur 3rd October 2020 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Checkmite (Post 13246552)
There was a debate tonight between Lindsey Graham and Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison. Harrison began the debate by setting up a giant plexiglass shield next to his podium facing Graham's.

I like it. But I am surprised the moderators allowed it. (I thought that they would have some sort of "No physical props" in the debate rules.

Checkmite 3rd October 2020 11:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Segnosaur (Post 13246665)
I like it. But I am surprised the moderators allowed it. (I thought that they would have some sort of "No physical props" in the debate rules.

Situationally, I would argue - and I'd bet Harrison would too - that it is legitimate safety equipment, not a prop. Graham has had direct contact with someone who tested positive yesterday.

Skeptic Ginger 3rd October 2020 11:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Segnosaur (Post 13246665)
I like it. But I am surprised the moderators allowed it. (I thought that they would have some sort of "No physical props" in the debate rules.

Not after the Trump debate.

Mader Levap 4th October 2020 05:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Segnosaur (Post 13246665)
I like it. But I am surprised the moderators allowed it. (I thought that they would have some sort of "No physical props" in the debate rules.

I don't think "barrier to prevent possible COVID-19 infection" counts as "physical prop".

Maybe Graham didn't catch the plague. Maybe intention was actually there, to use this screen as physical prop to remind people about coronavirus.

But unfortunately (for republicans), this kind of thing has very, very good excuse now.

Firestone 5th October 2020 07:57 AM

Schadenfreude is not ok, but hey:

"Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.), who switched parties with the hope of keeping his seat, now trails his Democratic opponent Amy Kennedy by a margin of 49% to 44% in a new Monmouth poll."

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/statu...31948332716033
https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/sta...32417360818176

CORed 5th October 2020 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trebuchet (Post 13246544)
I saw some of those on Twitter. Tamest sexts ever

True, the ones I saw were at worst PG rated, but they did make it pretty obvious that he's having an extramarital affair. I'm sure there are some people who will see that as a deal breaker, unfortunately possibly enough to swing the race.

Dread Pirate Roberts 6th October 2020 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CORed (Post 13248120)
True, the ones I saw were at worst PG rated, but they did make it pretty obvious that he's having an extramarital affair. I'm sure there are some people who will see that as a deal breaker, unfortunately possibly enough to swing the race.

There's another allegation and he skipped a town hall yesterday.


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