What's happening in Japan:
Tokyo’s rush back to business generating alarm at local levels (Asahi Shimbun)

Overall, Japan seems to be doing quite well compared to other countries, but as the government starts to reopen the economy, new infections continue to trend up. They were down to the low 2-digit levels in early June but 420 new cases were recorded yesterday. So about a 10-fold increase within a month.

Yep. Most of it seems to be in the Tokyo/Kanto region, but Osaka has also seen the numbers rising (I think it was 30 new cases yesterday or the day before).

Generally people wear masks without being ordered to and have mostly seemed to abide by requests to stay home except where necessary.

That said, people are beginning to get bored and going out more than before to theme parks, karaoke, bars and restaurants etc...

There will no doubt have to be some kind of interventions to bring the numbers down again...

...the government's offer to pay for people to travel round the country seems to be the complete opposite of what they need to do.

Why aren't you wearing one anyway? It's attitudes like that that force legislation to happen,

Compulsion is critical.
Masks must be a huge statistical good.
I have never had one since the sanding machine in woodworking. It seemed obvious to me that issuing gloves and basic disposable masks as a prerequisite to entering supermarkets was common sense.

Better be lucky than smart as NZ was.

Have you changed your view on face masks? I seem to remember you saying they were ineffective.

Michael Gove has just said to Andrew Marr that the government will not make it mandatory to wear masks in shops, although he does encourage people to do so.

Yet more abdication of responsibility by this government.

How does he know what the polls will say tomorrow when Johnson gets into the office?

At the moment I bet the polls are showing pretty much 50/50 on Johnson's popularity increasing or decreasing if he makes it compulsory or not. Can't expect him to make a call when the polling and focus groups are so evenly tied!

If Michael Gove says face masks should not be mandatory in shops then face masks should be mandatory in shops
That's what's known as the "lying ****" rule.

I agree about masks, but am not convinced about gloves, as they might be worse than sanitised hands.


Yes - a bad idea.

Here's my chart of the cases and deaths (7-day average, centred on the actual day, not lagging as in Excel's trendline) along with various dates of increasing and relaxing restrictions:
Attachment 42583

Because the scientific consensus appeared to be, and I'm not sure that it has changed, that it did not make a significant difference to the risk for the situations I'm in, nor does the government advice recommend it currently. The only shops I go to are large supermarkets, and I keep at least 2m from everybody else. I use the hand scanners, so I don't queue for the checkouts or deal with till operators.

I found a use for the masks (the wimpy kind, the n95 would have some use). When I find I am walking or bicycling to a smaller gathering I can't avoid, I put the mask on and avoid eye contact. This prevents strangers coming up to me and starting to talk. I also have a bandana around the neck at times, it's easier to pull up when I already have a bike helmet on.

Just out of interest, why does it prevent strangers talking to you?

Is this because they might come up to you and tell you to put on a mask?

OR

Because it is believed that people with masks on are sick?


I get the impression you don't think masks are of any use at all.

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I AGREE

Only the n95 masks are of much use. I have 2. The rubber band came off the staple on the first one, so I sewed the two rubber bands on. i have worn it inside stores for 2 months.

My masked look outdoors is to make me look anonymous and to discourage contact. I am uninteresting.

What is your argument for this?

If this article detailing what happened when a pub customer tested positive is to be believed, the (non-NHS) Test and Trace service is a joke.

Only the N95 masks are of much use to protect you from others. Regular masks help protect others from you.

The local abuse of the man who tested positive is very depressing. That's going to make people hide away if they think they've got it, when we need everybody with any symptoms to come forward for a test.

Well that’s the bloody point isn’t it!

If everyone were wearing a mask, then everyone would be protected.

That’s the point of condoms as well. It’s not just so that the wearer can be protected but also to protect the person they are having sex with.

I've got a couple of old respirator masks that I've been wearing in shops. They're meant to be disposable but I've been reusing them. I think now I'll also wear a snood round my neck and pull it up over the mask when I go into a shop.

If the mask uses an exhalation valve that is not filtered, you're being doubly selfish.

ETA: I have a full face shield respirator I pondered digging out a while back. It used an unfiltered valve, so I decided against it. Also I only have organic vapor cartridges (for tear gas) and not biologicals/HEPA.

I use one of the sport masks since it has a neck velcro strap to spare my ears. I find I have to head outside about once an hour to clear the moisture buildup off of the exhale filters and air it out.

I intend to pull a cloth face covering over the respirator mask in shops. If I go at all, which I probably won't unles something unforeseen comes up. I haven't been in a position where I could possibly have been infected since 12th March.

A slightly off-topic question from the colonies :) Is Gove's name pronounced as in "Guv'nor?" or as in "Grove"?

As in 'grove'. Or to rhyme with 'complete and utter self serving bastard'

Now the London government is apparently sending out advertisements encouraging (inciting?) people to travel to Scotland despite the risk of re-introducing coronavirus into a country that has almost eliminated it, and despite the fragile nature of the communities and healthcare in the areas tourists are likely to visit.

https://twitter.com/DrTomWalker/stat...12561179320320

In addition to "racist" and "despicable", refusing to rule out some sort of border restrictions between Scotland and England (similar to the current border restrictions between Victoria and New South Wales) is now "shameful".

We're not talking about actual border restrictions, because there aren't any, just about the refusal to declare that this would never be considered under any possible circumstances, no matter how great the difference in viral prevalence between the two countries.

We need out of this union.

Last 4 days Covid19 UK deaths:

England 147 48 82 121
Wales 1 0 2 4
N Ireland 0 0 0 0
Scotland 0 0 0 1

Spot the difference
Spot the problem

"What borders on stupidity?"
"Scotland and Wales!"

Or try this:

On the instructions of Dr George McCall Smith, the Surgeon Superintendent of Rawene Hospital, mounted and armed guards stood at all crossroads to turn back would-be visitors and thus restrict the spread of the disease between settlements. Travellers wishing to enter Hokianga were simply stopped at the boundary. The rule was simple: anyone could leave, but no one could enter.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hokianga

I don't understand these numbers. Scotland hasn't had a single death for four days in a row. Soon to be five.

I seem to recall that some Brexiteers back in march were gleefully saying that the EU couldn't close their national borders because of Freedom of Movement to stop the spread of virus. But the EU countries did it anyway. Now it looks more like it's the UK that has that problem.

Germany (at least) has closed internal borders. Nobody called the Länder involved racist, or shameful, or despicable.

Because who cares about protecting others.

https://news.vcu.edu/health/Early_fa...d_according_to

On politics, this is hilarious:

The Big Boy President Wore a Big Boy Mask And Now the Election is Over, Aides Say

Although that headline may seem to be over the top, look at the series of tweets that Trump's advisors made after Trump wore a mask in public for the first time.

Good pick - you're dead right; it's one of the funniest things I've read in some time.

Amazing how much he looks like the Lone Ranger. A real tough guy.

All it'll take is one Putinbot telling him that he looks stupid with a mask, and he'll never wear one again.

Fauci getting thrown under the bus by the Trump Administration.
He'll be one of their scapegoats (besides Democratic governors, et al).

White House Moves to Discredit Fauci as Disagreements With Trump Become Evident

Cross posting but:

This is an illuminating (and somewhat deranged) Twitter feed:

https://twitter.com/KwCongressional

https://twitter.com/KwCongressional/...74636168167424

Obviously he meant to use this flag :RUSSIA:

Can we keep the US politics in the US politics subforum/thread, and reserve the non-US politics thread/subforum for non-US politics?

That last number for Wales, per capita, isn't that clever :(

There were ugly drunken crowd scenes in Cardiff yesterday as well so maybe a new spike is in the offing.

A while ago, a British comedian (possibly Paul Merton) was trying to get people to pronounce it Goove, to rhyme with move. I think I heard it on the News Quiz and HIGNFY. It didn’t really get anywhere, but it amused me. I am quite childish.

ETA: it was Marcus Brigstocke.

Sorry, I should have thanked you earlier for the graphs on Japan. Where did you take the stats from?

Anyway, Japan's numbers are really on the rise now.

Today, 84 new cases in Osaka, whereas it had been in the twenties and thirties before that.

Cases in Tokyo also soaring.

So what better time...

Link

He looks stupid without one.

Oh, sorry, I thought I had put the link in....

The ECDC website - it's updated daily. I just use some sumifs statements in excel to uinquely identify each day for each country (so the sum is of one cell) and turn that into a 7-day average

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/public...ases-worldwide

ETA: then I take the average of day x +/- 3 days (so my graph has a lag of 4 days from the last date) to get the turning points on the correct days.

Thanks again! :thumbsup::)

Thing is, you can rely on many politicians, Scots and English, not to know where the border actually is...

How often do you hear/read them talking about north or south of Hadrian's Wall as the border? FFS, even using the Tweed doesn't work.

'S like none of them know Northumberland is even here...

Can we come with you, Scotland?

I took an English friend to Neidpath Castle, on the bank of the Tweed just above Peebles. You know how far Peebles is from the border. I realised as we were talking that she thought (just for a moment) that we were actually looking across the river to England!

The Scotland-England border is one of the oldest stable international borders in Europe, give or take the odd attempt by either side to carve out a bit more for itself. It was established, I think, in the early 13th century by King David I, and whatever the border raids everything always settled back to that line across the Cheviots. Sorry lads but Northumberland is in England and international law doesn't allow a country to grab a chunk of territory when it exits a union.

Not that we'll be exiting any time soon. Our esteemed leader has explicitly declined to make any capital out of the current chaos and indicated that we're going nowhere for a good few years. (The sooner she's out and replaced by someone with a backbone the better.)

And now Johnson has come out and contradicted Gove:

PM says face masks ‘should be worn’ in shops

This should have been an incredibly simple thing to come up with a policy on, yet again reduced to a confused mess by Johnson's lack of leadership.

eh?

Don't you mean our PM Mr D Cummings?

The government seem to be fighting two contradictory impulses.

On one hand they're desperate to continue their positive headlines and keep lifting the lockdown restrictions. On the other hand, they're aware that the Leicester outbreak has caused negative headlines so they want to try to keep infections low.

In short, they don't want to be meanies and compel people to wear masks but they recognise that wearing masks may help reduce infection. It's like a parent asking their child not to eat cake for lunch but not being prepared to tell them not to do so or have any punishment in the event that they do eat that cake.

As you say, a lack of leadership.

I've just come back from the post office. I'm pretty relaxed about this now because it's now more than three weeks since there has been a case in my region (Borders) at all, and if that case (21st June) was the one later reversed by a -1 report then our last case was 10th June. We're near two county boundaries, but Midlothian is also pretty clear (a single case over a week ago, and two weeks clear before that), and while South Lanarkshire is one of the regions with higher numbers, those in the know say the towns involved are Rutherglen/Cambuslang which are 40 miles away and really suburbs of Glasgow. Even if it's Motherwell/Wishaw, that's still 30 miles away.

Nevertheless everyone was wearing a mask except the clerks who were behind their normal screens anyway and also wearing face shields. None of that would protect the customers from a clerk who was aerosolising virus, but few customers and going to be in the shop long enough to breathe in an infective dose of aerosol anyway. (Except the elderly lady in front of me who was having her day's social interaction I think, she was a bit shocked when she saw how many people were waiting outside, but nobody minded.)

Anyway my point is that for all the bellyaching you see on the internet, in real life people just do it. Reports are that compliance in Scotland has been very high. England should just do it.

I remember being against compulsory seat belts in cars. (I was very young.) Then once it happened I analysed my feelings. I didn't like fastening a seat belt if I was driving because it was somehow acknowledging the possibility that I might have an accident. I didn't like fastening it as a passenger because it seemed like a tacit criticism of the driver, as if I was signalling that I didn't feel safe with their driving. But once it was the law all these subconscious reservations disappeared, I was doing it because it was the law, simple, no other conscious or subconscious motives. I think this is kind of similar.

We now have figures for last week for the whole of the UK.

Deaths:
England 587
Scotland 2
Wales 10
NI 1

New cases:
England 4,000 (rounded)
Scotland 63
Wales 142
NI 30

England actually had 1,117 more new cases last week than the week before, which if I'm reading this right is something like a 30% increase. This is not good. And yet England still wants to be in charge and unionists constantly criticise the Scottish government for not doing what England is doing. They're perfectly capable of forcing us to comply. We need out of this union.