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-   -   Covid-19 and Politics (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=342577)

Darat 16th July 2020 02:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Planigale (Post 13158687)
There are preparations going on for a winter second peak, and there have been for some time. Modelling suggesting the second peak goes back to March. One of the paradoxes is the more effective controls are now potentially the worse the peak might be!

Could you let the PM know?

Mojo 16th July 2020 02:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Planigale (Post 13158687)
There are preparations going on for a winter second peak, and there have been for some time. Modelling suggesting the second peak goes back to March. One of the paradoxes is the more effective controls are now potentially the worse the peak might be!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darat (Post 13158756)
Could you let the PM know?


He’s already doing his best to minimise the second peak.

Mojo 16th July 2020 02:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by catsmate (Post 13158146)
I recommend a 'Listerian Antiseptic Aerator' for your office; a wonderful piece of nineteenth century medical technology. Basically a small steam engine that vapourises a mist of carbolic acid (i.e. phenol) to kill any pathogens in the vicinity.
Perfect for the House of Commons, Cabinet Office et cetera.


Sounds a bit like the “Carbolic Smoke Ball”.

angrysoba 16th July 2020 03:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Planigale (Post 13158687)
There are preparations going on for a winter second peak, and there have been for some time. Modelling suggesting the second peak goes back to March. One of the paradoxes is the more effective controls are now potentially the worse the peak might be!

Would this be confirmed if, say, South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand etc...had devastating second peaks, whereas the UK, the US and Brazil just sailed through it?

Or are talking in terms of relative to the first peak, in which case any number of deaths in South Korea, Taiwan and New Zealand could look bad?

catsmate 16th July 2020 03:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mojo (Post 13158770)
Sounds a bit like the “Carbolic Smoke Ball”.

Ah, Asquith... :D
Yep they both used 'carbolic' (i.e. phenol) which was a popular antiseptic; Lister's device was a serious (if deeply unsafe) attempt to reduce infections while the Smoke Ball was a stunt.

jimbob 16th July 2020 04:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by angrysoba (Post 13158803)
Would this be confirmed if, say, South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand etc...had devastating second peaks, whereas the UK, the US and Brazil just sailed through it?

Or are talking in terms of relative to the first peak, in which case any number of deaths in South Korea, Taiwan and New Zealand could look bad?

Indeed.

Given the uncertainty over how long immunity lasts, it is possible that the first wave will do nothing to the second wave beyond killing people earlier. And, by having a higher level in the population (the decline is slow in many places) making it bigger.

Squeegee Beckenheim 16th July 2020 04:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimbob (Post 13158811)
Indeed.

Given the uncertainty over how long immunity lasts, it is possible that the first wave will do nothing to the second wave beyond killing people earlier. And, by having a higher level in the population (the decline is slow in many places) making it bigger.

Oh, the second wave should kill fewer people, because the first was unexpected. The government have had time to prepare for a second wave, and will have not only ensured there are things like stockpiles of PPE and drugs, they'll also have been recruiting and training new staff in relevant fields, preparing new strategies after learning from the old ones, and ensuring that the public are well-informed and prepared.

I'm sure that's how it's going to play out.

The Don 16th July 2020 06:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim (Post 13158857)
Oh, the second wave should kill fewer people, because the first was unexpected. The government have had time to prepare for a second wave, and will have not only ensured there are things like stockpiles of PPE and drugs, they'll also have been recruiting and training new staff in relevant fields, preparing new strategies after learning from the old ones, and ensuring that the public are well-informed and prepared.

I'm sure that's how it's going to play out.

I'm sure it will.

After all the current UK government (and the couple that preceded it) is world renowned for its ability to prepare in advance for things, for its level of attention to detail, its skill at executing a previously defined plan, its regard for experts and its ability to stick to its guns for the good of the country regardless of any short-term popularity issues.

If anyone needs any evidence of the above, they only need to look at the masterful way that the government handled the Brexit process and is handling the negotiations with the EU for the ongoing relationship after the transition period has expired. :rolleyes:

The Don 16th July 2020 06:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by angrysoba (Post 13158803)
Would this be confirmed if, say, South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand etc...had devastating second peaks, whereas the UK, the US and Brazil just sailed through it?

Or are talking in terms of relative to the first peak, in which case any number of deaths in South Korea, Taiwan and New Zealand could look bad?

There could conceivably be something to it if:
  • Countries like the UK had a significant majority of people infected in the first wave
  • Being infected provided long-term immunity

Unfortunately, despite the number of deaths, the proportion of people who have been infected is still in the mid-single digits and as has been pointed out in all the Covid-19 threads, both the proportion of people who have been infected who gain immunity and the length of time for which that immunity lasts are being questioned.

There's no reason to assume that the UK would handle the second wave any better, or that for the same competence in dealing with the second wave that the impact would be any less severe.

Likewise, there's no reason to assume that New Zealand would suddenly become incompetent and/or that the impact would be higher, not least because their first wave was during Autumn/Winter.

The Don 16th July 2020 06:55 AM

More good news for those of us living in Wales:

Quote:

No new deaths of people in Wales with coronavirus have been reported, with the total now standing at 1,545.

Public Health Wales (PHW) said there were 18 new cases reported, meaning 16,871 people have tested positive for Covid-19.

The figures have been revised to include tests carried out at non-NHS laboratories.

It is the fifth day in the last 10 that no deaths with Covid-19 have been announced in Wales.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51888681

Wales, and in particular the health board where I live, the Aneurin Bevan Health Board was hit particularly badly at the start of the outbreak. While some of the poorest parts of Wales still feature prominently in the lists of worst affected areas per capita, it seems that a lot of that data is historic and Coronavirus is currently nearly under control in Wales.

My local area, Monmouthshire, has only had a handful of confirmed cases in the past month and has gone as long as a week with no cases whatsoever. We are compromised by our proximity to England and the fact that a lot of people here work, and shop, over the border which means that there is a risk of returning with the virus.

I hope that the Welsh government continues to be cautious in lifting the lockdown restrictions and that the majority of people and businesses in Wales continue to act responsibly. For example, our local pub has chosen not to re-open for outside service because they feel that they cannot do so without compromising the safety of their staff and patrons. The vast majority of the comments to their announcement to this effect on Facebook were supportive and I'm sure that the support they have received for their takeaway service will continue.

Rolfe 16th July 2020 07:05 AM

I'm getting more and more inclined to shout "speak for yourself" in all this. There is no such thing as "the UK" in terms of coronavirus planning or response, not any more.

I'm not sure where to find the full modelling document, but the modellers' estimate of the number of people in Scotland who are infectious with coronavirus right now is estimated at 700. That's not the number of actual people tested and known about, which is considerably smaller, it's the number of people the statisticians believe to be actually infected calculating back from all the data available. That is 0.013% of the population or about one person in every eight thousand.

The political determination appears to be there to prevent this turning into a second wave and the public health teams seem to be on it and getting better by the week. The one thing I'm not confident about is the resolve to institute travel restrictions from outwith Scotland should that turn out to be necessary, and if that's the cause of us getting involved in a second wave happening elsewhere we will know who to blame.

There are four regions of Scotland which haven't had any cases at all for weeks. We're still damping it down elsewhere but that is being done. If England wants to have a second wave of sickness and death we do not want any part of it.

Captain_Swoop 16th July 2020 07:23 AM

Matt Hancock says the govt is "rolling out new cutting-edge predictive technology" to forecast coronavirus hospitalisations.

.

The Don 16th July 2020 08:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13158984)
Matt Hancock says the govt is "rolling out new cutting-edge predictive technology" to forecast coronavirus hospitalisations.

.

Yes, where lockdown restrictions are lifted, Coronavirus hospitalisations are likely to increase.

Where they are retained, or reimposed they Coronavirus hospitalisations are likely to fall.

Unless of course Dom has worked out the graphing functions in Excel. :rolleyes:

Rolfe 16th July 2020 08:14 AM

Each one of these is a potential human tragedy. The Westminster government needs to stop thinking of them as statistics and points on a spreadsheet and start thinking about how to prevent these tragedies.

How long is it going to take the English population in particular to look at what's happening in other countries and realise that their own government is casually putting them in danger whereas other major industrial nations (with the conspicuous exception of the USA) are actually trying to protect their citizens?

Darat 16th July 2020 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13158984)
Matt Hancock says the govt is "rolling out new cutting-edge predictive technology" to forecast coronavirus hospitalisations.

.

SuperPredictor to the rescue!!!!!!!!

catsmate 16th July 2020 08:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rolfe (Post 13159026)
Each one of these is a potential human tragedy. The Westminster government needs to stop thinking of them as statistics and points on a spreadsheet and start thinking about how to prevent these tragedies.

How long is it going to take the English population in particular to look at what's happening in other countries and realise that their own government is casually putting them in danger whereas other major industrial nations (with the conspicuous exception of the USA) are actually trying to protect their citizens?

Well they swallowed Brexit so they're not that bright.

The Don 16th July 2020 08:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rolfe (Post 13159026)
Each one of these is a potential human tragedy. The Westminster government needs to stop thinking of them as statistics and points on a spreadsheet and start thinking about how to prevent these tragedies.

How long is it going to take the English population in particular to look at what's happening in other countries and realise that their own government is casually putting them in danger whereas other major industrial nations (with the conspicuous exception of the USA) are actually trying to protect their citizens?

The UK Government seems to be driven almost exclusively by the need for positive publicity.

Opening up pubs and restaurants, having major sporting events on the TV and being able to go on your holidays all generate positive headlines.

Having had very high daily deaths a few months ago mean that even "66 people died in the UK of Coronavirus today" generates somewhat positive headlines.

Until and unless people start to react negatively to the number of new cases and/or number of deaths then the UK Government doesn't care. Even then, they'll have a jolly good go at blaming the public for failing to be alert rather than accepting responsibility for their lack of leadership and inability to provide good guidance to the public.

The public on the other hand are just happy to be in the pub or on the beach. I don't see the prospect of disgruntlement unless the numbers of cases and deaths return to their peaks and the weather turns in the autumn and people are less likely to go out and have fun.

Mojo 16th July 2020 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13158984)
Matt Hancock says the govt is "rolling out new cutting-edge predictive technology" to forecast coronavirus hospitalisations.

.


Then again, yesterday he said face masks would be compulsory in takeaways, while today: Face masks not compulsory in takeaways in England, says Sharma

Quote:

Only 24 hours earlier the health secretary, Matt Hancock, couldn’t have been clearer, declaring that new rules will mean that people grabbing a takeaway from a sandwich shop must wear a face mask.

But now his cabinet colleague, Alok Sharma, has claimed that face coverings will be only a recommendation – not compulsory – for people going into cafes for takeaway food.

Rolfe 16th July 2020 09:54 AM

It's depressing. I only hope there is a vaccine soon. I wonder if Johnson is secretly banking on that to get him out of this.

zooterkin 17th July 2020 04:21 AM

Mod InfoThread closed due to size.

Continues here.
Posted By:zooterkin


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