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-   -   Covid-19 and Politics (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=342577)

McHrozni 29th May 2020 02:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ceptimus (Post 13105856)
You wouldn't expect R to alter just by the passage of time.

Actually, you would.

1. Weather. More sunlight means more UV light to destroy viral particles means more difficult transmission, which translates into a lower R0. I'm not sure if this matters much to UK, but I'm sure there's more sunlight in the summer months.

2. Aquired immunity. The more people that have antibodies against the virus, the harder it is for virus to spread. We don't know how long the immunity lasts and we don't know the titer of antibodies needed to fight against the disease, but fact is people who have antibodies against the virus are at least less at risk than those who do not.

3. Infectious dose. There is a strong correlation between the severity of disease and how contageous it is on one side and between the number of viral particles you're exposed to on the other side. If you manage to reduce the number of viral particles in the air - whether by quarantene, stay at home orders, face masks or any other means - there will be fewer severely ill patiens who will shed significant amount of viral particles. This will mean fewer infected and reduce the R0.

Change in behavior is, of course, the quickest and most effective of them all. If R0 is staying put for a significant amount of time (several weeks) that implies the adherence to social distancing is slowly eroding too.

McHrozni

The Don 29th May 2020 02:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13105869)
Todays papers headlining with end of lockdown. Football is starting, NT is opening parks and gardens, Pubs opening, BBQs allowed, families reunited, "Happy Monday"

It's all over folks, we survived!

Yay ! :rolleyes:

Our wonderful government has steered us successfully through the Coronavirus pandemic. :nope:

Any subsequent waves of infection are the fault of the underclasses who have clearly failed to be sufficiently alert. :mad:

KDLarsen 29th May 2020 06:13 AM

Well, that's my summer holiday plans well and truly scuttled.

The Danish government has announced that from June 15th, the borders will reopen to tourists from Germany, Norway, and Iceland, and likewise Danish tourists will be able to travel to those countries, as long as they stay away from the major cities. It is also suggested that those travelling subject themselves to a two week quarantine on their return, but it's not made mandatory. Dialogue with the Swedish authorities are ongoing.

Tourists will be permitted to visit Copenhagen, but overnight stays there won't be permitted.

Aber 29th May 2020 06:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13105846)
It does and having the R-number in the community being "likely to be below 1" for Wales as a whole is hardly reassuring when other countries have a much firmer grip on R and it's very much lower.

Regarding the current number of cases - who knows ?

Given we have estimates for infectious period, and % with symptoms, then you can backcalculate, even if you have to use wide error bars.

The important question is what proportion of cases are within care homes and hospitals, as these cases should be far easier to track. Unfortunately that analysis is not being made public, and will have a big impact on the R-number in the community. "Likely to be below 1" covers 0.1 as well as 0.9.

My suspicion is that retrospectively we will find out that the outbreak in Wales was initially driven by hospital based transmission (certainly around me from the local press), and then it spread into care homes.

Aber 29th May 2020 06:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim (Post 13105813)
Doubly astonishing given that Cummings' wife is the commissioning editor. So either the magazine commissioned that without her knowledge, or Cummings thinks that going on the attack against Johnson is a strategic advantage of some kind.

Or that columnists are free to write what they believe. :)

Captain_Swoop 29th May 2020 07:34 AM

She believed she was in London when she was in Durham?

Squeegee Beckenheim 29th May 2020 07:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aber (Post 13106210)
Or that columnists are free to write what they believe. :)

I would say that that's covered in the former. Unless your assertion is that she commissioned the article or had knowledge of it being commissioned and thought "well, this will likely damage my husband, but I'll let it happen because that's the fair thing to do", which I have to concede is possible, but seems unlikely to me.

shuttlt 29th May 2020 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim (Post 13106328)
I would say that that's covered in the former. Unless your assertion is that she commissioned the article or had knowledge of it being commissioned and thought "well, this will likely damage my husband, but I'll let it happen because that's the fair thing to do", which I have to concede is possible, but seems unlikely to me.

Isn't it possible blocking the article would be a bigger / worse story than publishing it?

The Don 29th May 2020 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13106313)
She believed she was in London when she was in Durham?

Maybe her eyesight wasn't so good either ;)

P.J. Denyer 29th May 2020 08:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aber (Post 13106210)
Or that columnists are free to write what they believe. :)

I'll assume the smiley means you are familiar with the British press!

The Don 29th May 2020 08:31 AM

Some clue as to why the England and Wales' infection and death numbers are depressingly high:

Quote:

Police in England and Wales have issued nearly 17,000 fines for alleged breaches of coronavirus lockdown rules.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52852498

Interestingly:

Quote:

The data, from between 12 and 25 May, shows a significant reduction in the number of people fined since measures were eased in England two weeks ago
Whether that represents increased compliance or reduced enforcement is a good question IMO.

Quote:

Among the main reasons for fines, the NPCC listed driving with non-household members, house parties, large gatherings and camping.

The data shows fines were more likely to be issued at weekends, with the NPCC highlighting the recent bank holidays and periods of warmer weather.
With England relaxing the lockdown restrictions further, fines will drop again IMO. Then again, if you made shoplifting legal, there would be fewer people fined for that as well ;).

Squeegee Beckenheim 29th May 2020 08:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shuttlt (Post 13106368)
Isn't it possible blocking the article would be a bigger / worse story than publishing it?

Possibly, but it's not like papers and magazines don't kill stories all the time.

zooterkin 29th May 2020 08:37 AM

Restrictions are being lifted even though the threat level hasn't changed.

Quote:

Lockdown restrictions are being lifted in England before experts are ready to cut the threat level from coronavirus from “high”, No 10 has admitted.

Boris Johnson had been expected to lower the alert level from 4 to 3 when he gave the go-ahead for groups of 6 to mix in gardens and parks, but failed to mention it.

Now his spokesman has conceded the level remains at 4 – where transmission of the virus is said to be “high” – while arguing it is “coming down from 4 to 3”.

Squeegee Beckenheim 29th May 2020 08:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13106399)
Whether that represents increased compliance or reduced enforcement is a good question IMO.

Judging by my local park/Lidl, I'd say it's due to reduced enforcement. If I didn't know better, I wouldn't even know there was a lockdown, based on the number of picnickers, sunbathers, etc.

Captain_Swoop 29th May 2020 09:26 AM

They can't tell us how many people have tested again ... is that because they don't know (how is that possible when they knew before) ... Or is it because it's below 100,000 and they promised it would be that or higher every day?

GlennB 29th May 2020 09:27 AM

"The UK has the second highest rate of excess deaths from the coronavirus pandemic in the world. In the WORLD. It’s a funny sort of world-beating achievement – but it’s evidently what you get with the boy who grew up wanting to be world king."

The magnificent Marina Hyde, again.

Anecdote alert:

I had to pay a trip to a Greek hospital today, to get the official opinion on a chest CT scan. The place had its entrances all locked and rearranged, so I ended up going in via a 'goods inwards' delivery entrance, by mistake. Bloke there spoke good English and helped me in the right direction, but not before confirming I was British and saying "Ha, that Boris Johnson! What an idiot".

The UK is a laughing stock.

Captain_Swoop 29th May 2020 09:28 AM

This is madness ... the Prime Minister himself said they wouldn't ease lockdown until the alert level had dropped. The alert level has stayed at 4 and yet they're easing lockdown.

They don't know what they're doing, do they?

Captain_Swoop 29th May 2020 09:29 AM

So let me get this right
The app doesn't work
Track and trace won't be up and running until July
The risk level has been raised to high by PHE
They've stopped telling us how many tests have been done
R remains very near 1 (above some areas)
And they're reopening schools and allowing Barbecues?

shuttlt 29th May 2020 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim (Post 13106407)
Possibly, but it's not like papers and magazines don't kill stories all the time.

Sure, but pragmatically... if you kill the story to save your husband while he is the centre of a journalist feeding frenzy.... I can see that being cosmetically more unhelpful than simply adding one more article to the heap.

p0lka 29th May 2020 09:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13106495)
This is madness ... the Prime Minister himself said they wouldn't ease lockdown until the alert level had dropped. The alert level has stayed at 4 and yet they're easing lockdown.

They don't know what they're doing, do they?

Well, sacrifices have to be made.

GlennB 29th May 2020 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13106496)
So let me get this right
The app doesn't work
Track and trace won't be up and running until July
The risk level has been raised to high by PHE
They've stopped telling us how many tests have been done
R remains very near 1 (above some areas)
And they're reopening schools and allowing Barbecues?

Utterly clueless leadership plus a population that has, to a significant extent, given up caring and just wants to have a nice time.

P.J. Denyer 29th May 2020 10:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13106495)
This is madness ... the Prime Minister himself said they wouldn't ease lockdown until the alert level had dropped. The alert level has stayed at 4 and yet they're easing lockdown.

They don't know what they're doing, do they?

If they do, then it's something very different than what they claim they are doing. But then we've always known that the Conservative Party's principal aim isn't 'improving the life of everyone in Britain regardless of wealth or background' haven't we?

Darat 29th May 2020 11:51 AM

Covid-19 and Politics
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13106496)
So let me get this right
The app doesn't work
Track and trace won't be up and running until July
The risk level has been raised to high by PHE
They've stopped telling us how many tests have been done
R remains very near 1 (above some areas)
And they're reopening schools and allowing Barbecues?


We are are rapidly approaching holiday time for the MPs, so of course they need to change the lockdown so they can go to pals villas and their own 2nd and 3rd homes.

Mojo 29th May 2020 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darat (Post 13106651)
We are are rapidly approaching holiday time for the MPs, so of course they need to change the lockdown so they can go to pals villas and their own 2nd and 3rd homes.


And they need to distract attention from Boris and his boss.

Trebuchet 29th May 2020 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GlennB (Post 13106494)
"The UK has the second highest rate of excess deaths from the coronavirus pandemic in the world. In the WORLD. It’s a funny sort of world-beating achievement – but it’s evidently what you get with the boy who grew up wanting to be world king."

The magnificent Marina Hyde, again.

Anecdote alert:

I had to pay a trip to a Greek hospital today, to get the official opinion on a chest CT scan. The place had its entrances all locked and rearranged, so I ended up going in via a 'goods inwards' delivery entrance, by mistake. Bloke there spoke good English and helped me in the right direction, but not before confirming I was British and saying "Ha, that Boris Johnson! What an idiot".

The UK is a laughing stock.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13106495)
This is madness ... the Prime Minister himself said they wouldn't ease lockdown until the alert level had dropped. The alert level has stayed at 4 and yet they're easing lockdown.

They don't know what they're doing, do they?

Could be worse. You could be American.

Arcade22 29th May 2020 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13106495)
This is madness ... the Prime Minister himself said they wouldn't ease lockdown until the alert level had dropped. The alert level has stayed at 4 and yet they're easing lockdown.

They don't know what they're doing, do they?

It's the principle that counts.

Blue Mountain 30th May 2020 12:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trebuchet (Post 13106676)
Could be worse. You could be American.

In terms of deaths per million population, the US is doing better than the UK. The following table shows the top countries by death rate, for countries with over 1,000,000 people:

Country
Deaths/1,000,000 Population  
Belgium
814
11,585,252
 
Spain
580
46,753,246
 
United Kingdom
562
67,854,937
 
Italy
550
60,469,262
 
France
440
65,261,155
 
Sweden
431
10,093,745
 
Netherlands
346
17,131,629
 
Ireland
333
4,932,806
 
United States
316
330,832,890
 
Switzerland
222
8,649,038
 
Ecuador
189
17,618,288
 
Canada
185
37,712,703
 

Source: worldometers.com, last updated 30 May 2020 at 07:08 GMT

Squeegee Beckenheim 30th May 2020 12:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blue Mountain (Post 13107261)
In terms of deaths per million population, the US is doing better than the UK. The following table shows the top countries by death rate, for countries with over 1,000,000 people:

Country
Deaths/1,000,000 Population  
Belgium
814
11,585,252
 
Spain
580
46,753,246
 
United Kingdom
562
67,854,937
 
Italy
550
60,469,262
 
France
440
65,261,155
 
Sweden
431
10,093,745
 
Netherlands
346
17,131,629
 
Ireland
333
4,932,806
 
United States
316
330,832,890
 
Switzerland
222
8,649,038
 
Ecuador
189
17,618,288
 
Canada
185
37,712,703
 

Source: worldometers.com, last updated 30 May 2020 at 07:08 GMT

Yes, the US is catching up to us, but very, very slowly. I doubt they will have caught up by the end of the year, even if both our trajectories remain exactly the same. Which they won't.

catsmate 30th May 2020 02:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13106495)
This is madness ... the Prime Minister himself said they wouldn't ease lockdown until the alert level had dropped. The alert level has stayed at 4 and yet they're easing lockdown.

They don't know what they're doing, do they?

They're trying to bury Cummings's embarrassing flouting of the law.

zooterkin 30th May 2020 02:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by catsmate (Post 13107325)
They're trying to bury Cummings's embarrassing flouting of the law.

By burying people instead.

P.J. Denyer 30th May 2020 02:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zooterkin (Post 13107339)
By burying people instead.

Johnson doesn't think past the immediate problem. Sorry, his immediate problem.

Mojo 30th May 2020 03:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer (Post 13107350)
Johnson doesn't think past the immediate problem. Sorry, his immediate problem.


Quote:

“I think he honestly believes that it is churlish of us not to regard him as an exception, one which should be free of the network of obligation which binds everyone else.”
https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news...omment-2865338

zooterkin 30th May 2020 03:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer (Post 13107350)
Johnson doesn't think past the immediate problem.

Four too many words in that sentence.

Samson 30th May 2020 04:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim (Post 13106414)
Judging by my local park/Lidl, I'd say it's due to reduced enforcement. If I didn't know better, I wouldn't even know there was a lockdown, based on the number of picnickers, sunbathers, etc.

If you can see them they are not transmitting virus.They are outdoors.
Oh the tragic irony.

Squeegee Beckenheim 30th May 2020 05:04 AM

The UK test & trace service, launched on Thursday, has yet to complete its mandatory data protection impact assessment

Arcade22 30th May 2020 05:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blue Mountain (Post 13107261)
In terms of deaths per million population, the US is doing better than the UK. The following table shows the top countries by death rate, for countries with over 1,000,000 people:

Country
Deaths/1,000,000 Population  
Belgium
814
11,585,252
 
Spain
580
46,753,246
 
United Kingdom
562
67,854,937
 
Italy
550
60,469,262
 
France
440
65,261,155
 
Sweden
431
10,093,745
 
Netherlands
346
17,131,629
 
Ireland
333
4,932,806
 
United States
316
330,832,890
 
Switzerland
222
8,649,038
 
Ecuador
189
17,618,288
 
Canada
185
37,712,703
 

Source: worldometers.com, last updated 30 May 2020 at 07:08 GMT

I'd not put much importance into those numbers given how reporting of deaths varies between countries. Those showing excess deaths tend to be a much more reliable indicator of how many people are dying directly and indirectly because of the pandemic.

zooterkin 30th May 2020 06:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arcade22 (Post 13107429)
I'd not put much importance into those numbers given how reporting of deaths varies between countries. Those showing excess deaths tend to be a much more reliable indicator of how many people are dying directly and indirectly because of the pandemic.

My guess is that the UK is one of the better and more timely countries at reporting such figures too, so we might be looking slightly worse than we actually are. We isn't saying much, I suspect, unfortunately.

Darat 30th May 2020 06:14 AM

That’s incompetence, and given who heads this up it is wilful incompetence.

Mind you one has to consider the accuracy of the article when it says we will be asked to handover our “zip codes”.

The Don 30th May 2020 07:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zooterkin (Post 13107454)
My guess is that the UK is one of the better and more timely countries at reporting such figures too, so we might be looking slightly worse than we actually are. We isn't saying much, I suspect, unfortunately.

Sadly you'd be wrong. According to analysis by the Financial Times, the UK has the world's highest excess deaths rate.

Sorry for the Google link, I'm on my phone.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft....2-648ffde71bf0

catsmate 30th May 2020 07:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zooterkin (Post 13107339)
By burying people instead.

Meh, no-one important.


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