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-   -   Covid-19 and Politics (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=342577)

The Don 7th June 2020 07:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nessie (Post 13116825)
The remarkable story of Mongolia, with zero deaths;

https://medium.com/@indica/covid-und...a-3b0c162427c2

The capital is a large city of 1.5 million people with a density of 307 people per km2 and ripe for infection due to its proximity and regular flights from China. So they went into lockdown in January, closing schools, theatres etc then. All flights into the country since 1st Feb had required quarantining, including the crew. They manufactured a lot of their own PPE.

All of that happened, despite still no cases. The first case was a French national who arrived in February. The office he worked in and the entire district he lived in was quarantined. Everywhere he had been disinfected. There were no transmissions.

They have had 140 cases, all of people who have arrived back into the country and none have resulted in other transmissions.

Carefully thought through plans combined with diligent execution - something entirely beyond a UK government busy crowing about Brexit with an indolent dilettante in charge:mad:

Matthew Best 7th June 2020 07:42 AM

Mongolia was brought up by Rolfe a couple of weeks ago in another thread:

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...&postcount=819

Arcade22 7th June 2020 08:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nessie (Post 13116825)
The remarkable story of Mongolia, with zero deaths;

https://medium.com/@indica/covid-und...a-3b0c162427c2

The capital is a large city of 1.5 million people with a density of 307 people per km2 and ripe for infection due to its proximity and regular flights from China. So they went into lockdown in January, closing schools, theatres etc then. All flights into the country since 1st Feb had required quarantining, including the crew. They manufactured a lot of their own PPE.

All of that happened, despite still no cases. The first case was a French national who arrived in February. The office he worked in and the entire district he lived in was quarantined. Everywhere he had been disinfected. There were no transmissions.

They have had 140 cases, all of people who have arrived back into the country and none have resulted in other transmissions.

How many Mongolians can afford to go abroad and get infected? Not very many. How many foreigners travel to Mongolia? Very few. Had they experienced the same initial case load as one of the European countries that experience significant outbreaks this would not have been possible.

Note that the majority of people who live in Ulaanbaatar never receive any regular healthcare checkups or treatments, elderly care or otherwise endure the usual risks of infection. The people who live in the slums are basically forced to fend for themselves, which ironically reduces the risk of being infected with this virus compared with more developed countries that actually offer things like care for the elderly. In other words, the lack of access to regular healthcare checkups and treatments is protective against the spread of the virus.

zooterkin 7th June 2020 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13116850)
Carefully thought through plans combined with diligent execution - something entirely beyond a UK government busy crowing about Brexit with an indolent dilettante in charge:mad:

He's giving dilettantes a bad name.

The Atheist 7th June 2020 03:11 PM

By the end of this week, the five countries with most Covid cases will be:

USA
Brazil
Russia
UK
India

I wonder if those countries have anything in common.

Darat 7th June 2020 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13117243)
By the end of this week, the five countries with most Covid cases will be:

USA
Brazil
Russia
UK
India

I wonder if those countries have anything in common.


Yeah! We still push beyond our weight!

p0lka 7th June 2020 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darat (Post 13117248)
Yeah! We still push beyond our weight!

We can't even be world beating in the negative sense, it seems that we are mediocre at best.

Samson 7th June 2020 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13117243)
By the end of this week, the five countries with most Covid cases will be:

USA
Brazil
Russia
UK
India

I wonder if those countries have anything in common.

Yes but per capita numbers clean up the discussion. Of course testing numbers matter too, and excess deaths by population may be the lasting political legacy.

Vixen 8th June 2020 02:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arcade22 (Post 13116889)
How many Mongolians can afford to go abroad and get infected? Not very many. How many foreigners travel to Mongolia? Very few. Had they experienced the same initial case load as one of the European countries that experience significant outbreaks this would not have been possible.

Note that the majority of people who live in Ulaanbaatar never receive any regular healthcare checkups or treatments, elderly care or otherwise endure the usual risks of infection. The people who live in the slums are basically forced to fend for themselves, which ironically reduces the risk of being infected with this virus compared with more developed countries that actually offer things like care for the elderly. In other words, the lack of access to regular healthcare checkups and treatments is protective against the spread of the virus.

Still in denial I see. After denial comes anger.

Squeegee Beckenheim 8th June 2020 04:31 AM

There is a campaign to begin a private investigation into Cummings

GraculusTheGreenBird 8th June 2020 06:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13117243)
By the end of this week, the five countries with most Covid cases will be:

USA
Brazil
Russia
UK
India

I wonder if those countries have anything in common.

I know, I know!

Is the answer "They all have complete ******** for leaders?"

Nessie 8th June 2020 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arcade22 (Post 13116889)
How many Mongolians can afford to go abroad and get infected? Not very many. How many foreigners travel to Mongolia? Very few.

How many Chinese go to and from Mongolia?


Quote:

Had they experienced the same initial case load as one of the European countries that experience significant outbreaks this would not have been possible.
The point was they stopped that from happening by locking down and quarantining travellers months before the UK did.

Quote:

Note that the majority of people who live in Ulaanbaatar never receive any regular healthcare checkups or treatments, elderly care or otherwise endure the usual risks of infection. The people who live in the slums are basically forced to fend for themselves, which ironically reduces the risk of being infected with this virus compared with more developed countries that actually offer things like care for the elderly. In other words, the lack of access to regular healthcare checkups and treatments is protective against the spread of the virus.
The virus spreads by contact, which is primarily determined by how many contacts someone has, not by what you suggest. The Mongolian capital was at risk due to its population density.

If everywhere had done what Mongolia did, when Mongolia did it, we would be talking about COVID-19 in the past tense by now, with few people having died.

The Atheist 8th June 2020 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GraculusTheGreenBird (Post 13117805)
I know, I know!

Is the answer "They all have complete ******** for leaders?"

Far too easy, really.

It's an amazing thing to think that these clowns pretending to be president/PM have been shown up so badly by a bad cold/little 'flu.

While China sits at 18th and falling on both cases and deaths.

Darat 9th June 2020 01:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13118155)
Far too easy, really.

It's an amazing thing to think that these clowns pretending to be president/PM have been shown up so badly by a bad cold/little 'flu.

While China sits at 18th and falling on both cases and deaths.


Stop being so smug.

Your whole country’s attempts could have failed by your government’s rash actions of exempting certain key workers from the lockdown, all it would have took would have been for the tooth fairy to have been a super spreader and you’d be up **** creek right now! And why did your PM exempt the fairy - For nothing more than political gain, can I remind you she not only exempted the tooth fairy but the bloody Easter bunny as well.

Hopefully you will come to your senses and vote this populist who was willing to cause millions of deaths for a bit of political capital out of office as soon as possible!

Susheel 9th June 2020 01:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist (Post 13117243)
By the end of this week, the five countries with most Covid cases will be:

USA
Brazil
Russia
UK
India

I wonder if those countries have anything in common.

Narcissistic right-wing megalomaniacs for heads of state.

The Don 9th June 2020 01:39 AM

The UK government has once again demonstrated its masterful management of the Coronavirus crisis by abandoning plans to open all primary schools:

Quote:

The plan for all primary school years in England to go back to school before the end of term is to be dropped by the government.

There had been an aim for all primary pupils to spend four weeks in school before the summer break.

But it is no longer thought to be feasible and instead schools will be given "flexibility" over whether or not to admit more pupils.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-52969679

It's hardly rocket surgery to figure out that if classes need to half to a third of their current size and the number of rooms and teachers is limited, then opening schools to all pupils isn't a practical proposition - something that those with any knowledge have been saying all along:

Quote:

Head teachers' leaders said it had never been a practical possibility.
But of course we don't listen to so-called experts any more :mad:

The Atheist 9th June 2020 01:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darat (Post 13118902)
For nothing more than political gain, can I remind you she not only exempted the tooth fairy but the bloody Easter bunny as well.

Ah, but they both practised correct distancing. Easter Eggs were left in the letterbox, and teeth were dangled outside on the string they were pulled out with.

You certainly have to hand it to her - nothing like convincing the kids to love her to get mummy and daddy's votes in September.

She will win by the biggest margin in NZ history. Your boy Keir Starmer should be posting Zooms with her - that stuff rubs off and he already looks pretty good to me. I still can't get my head around "Sir" and "Keir" as a couplet, though.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Susheel (Post 13118912)
Narcissistic right-wing megalomaniacs for heads of state.

Hole in one.

(Was pretty easy!)

I just hope the world learns a lesson from that.

Darat 9th June 2020 03:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13118914)
The UK government has once again demonstrated its masterful management of the Coronavirus crisis by abandoning plans to open all primary schools:



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-52969679

It's hardly rocket surgery to figure out that if classes need to half to a third of their current size and the number of rooms and teachers is limited, then opening schools to all pupils isn't a practical proposition - something that those with any knowledge have been saying all along:



But of course we don't listen to so-called experts any more :mad:

Labour's fault for having such large classes - remember they have only been in power since December so they are having to deal with the terrible state of the nation the previous government left!

P.J. Denyer 9th June 2020 07:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darat (Post 13118974)
Labour's fault for having such large classes - remember they have only been in power since December so they are having to deal with the terrible state of the nation the previous government left!

That's how Priti Patel counts-:

2007
2008
2009
2020
2021

Darat 9th June 2020 12:07 PM

Scathing article about the educational secretary


https://www.theguardian.com/politics...t-count-to-two

The Don 9th June 2020 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darat (Post 13119640)
Scathing article about the educational secretary


https://www.theguardian.com/politics...t-count-to-two

The British electorate voted for indolent dilettantes. :mad:

McHrozni 9th June 2020 10:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13120316)
The British electorate voted for indolent dilettantes. :mad:

They aren't the only ones.

Social distancing in schools is going to be impossible. Instead of trying to figure out a way to do it any sensible government is going to try to work around the problem.

Austria has a solid solution, half the pupils attend one week, the other half the other week. When at home they watch the lecture online. It's not ideal but with half the class size it's possible to ensure some social distancing and because the class can be disinfected in between groups any outbreak is going to be limited to half a class.

There's another layer you could do. Inexpensive immunological molecular tests that work on saliva can be used to test the hell out of pupils.

There are three big words there to explain, but you can probably guess what "inexpensive" stands for (they're < 10€ when bought in small quantities, cheaper when purchased in bulk). Immunological means they use antibodies in detection, it's the molecular that makes the difference - these tests look for virus antigen, not for antibodies against the virus. That means they can pick up an infection before the regular antibody test would. They aren't as sensitive as the RT PCR test but they're way better than nothing.

Saliva also seems to be as good as or sometimes a better donor than the swab so the sampling is quicker and easier too.

You could, in principle, test every student at the start of his week, without too much hassle. Any infection you pick up is one potential outbreak less.

Do that and you need to worry far less about the distance between pupils in classes. Keep them in the single classroom without mingling with other classes sure, but within the classroom at least you don't need to worry too much about distancing. Outbreaks, if any, will be extremely limited.

McHrozni

Mojo 9th June 2020 11:08 PM

More unintended consequences of lockdown: 'Like a Stephen King movie': feral chickens return to plague New Zealand village

Quote:

New Zealand’s national lockdown to quell the spread of Covid-19 appears to have vanquished the virus, but it has had one unintended consequence: the re-emergence of a plague – not of frogs or locusts but of feral chickens, a flock of which is once again menacing an area of west Auckland.

The Don 9th June 2020 11:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by McHrozni (Post 13120324)
They aren't the only ones.

Social distancing in schools is going to be impossible. Instead of trying to figure out a way to do it any sensible government is going to try to work around the problem.

Austria has a solid solution, half the pupils attend one week, the other half the other week. When at home they watch the lecture online. It's not ideal but with half the class size it's possible to ensure some social distancing and because the class can be disinfected in between groups any outbreak is going to be limited to half a class.

There's another layer you could do. Inexpensive immunological molecular tests that work on saliva can be used to test the hell out of pupils.

There are three big words there to explain, but you can probably guess what "inexpensive" stands for (they're < 10€ when bought in small quantities, cheaper when purchased in bulk). Immunological means they use antibodies in detection, it's the molecular that makes the difference - these tests look for virus antigen, not for antibodies against the virus. That means they can pick up an infection before the regular antibody test would. They aren't as sensitive as the RT PCR test but they're way better than nothing.

Saliva also seems to be as good as or sometimes a better donor than the swab so the sampling is quicker and easier too.

You could, in principle, test every student at the start of his week, without too much hassle. Any infection you pick up is one potential outbreak less.

Do that and you need to worry far less about the distance between pupils in classes. Keep them in the single classroom without mingling with other classes sure, but within the classroom at least you don't need to worry too much about distancing. Outbreaks, if any, will be extremely limited.

McHrozni

That's a great approach if your objective is to maximise the educational opportunities for pupils, you have a working testing, tracking and tracing programme and cost isn't a primary constraint.

Unfortunately, in the UK the objective is to get all children back to school so that their parents can go back to work and the furlough scheme can be wound up as quickly as possible; our testing, tracking and tracing system is a complete shambles and cost is a major consideration.

That the UK government is also utterly incompetent is just the cherry on top of the ****-cake :mad:

McHrozni 10th June 2020 12:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13120344)
That's a great approach if your objective is to maximise the educational opportunities for pupils, you have a working testing, tracking and tracing programme and cost isn't a primary constraint.

Unfortunately, in the UK the objective is to get all children back to school so that their parents can go back to work and the furlough scheme can be wound up as quickly as possible; our testing, tracking and tracing system is a complete shambles and cost is a major consideration.

That the UK government is also utterly incompetent is just the cherry on top of the ****-cake :mad:

If parents staying at home to watch the kids is a major consideration you can also get children into two separate classrooms, in different buildings if possible. One group gets the live teacher, the other gets the video feed and someone to keep them in order.

It is not ideal. But it's entirely doable and gets the parents back to work, costs are managable. You only need that for grades 1-4, roughly. Older children can watch the video from home.

McHrozni

Squeegee Beckenheim 10th June 2020 12:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by McHrozni (Post 13120367)
If parents staying at home to watch the kids is a major consideration you can also get children into two separate classrooms, in different buildings if possible. One group gets the live teacher, the other gets the video feed and someone to keep them in order.

That would be a great solution if schools had the space.

Private schools with big fees will be fine with an approach like that. Ordinary schools won't.

I don't know how much it's changed in the decades since I was at school, but every school I attended had at least one portacabin set up on a field somewhere that was used as a classroom because there wasn't enough space in the school itself. They were a living hell in the summer.

Class sizes being too big and space too small has been known problems for literal decades. The problems aren't going to magically go away just because it now affects a pandemic (that the government doesn't really care about) rather than just the education of the majority of children (which the government also doesn't really care about).

The Don 10th June 2020 01:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by McHrozni (Post 13120367)
If parents staying at home to watch the kids is a major consideration you can also get children into two separate classrooms, in different buildings if possible. One group gets the live teacher, the other gets the video feed and someone to keep them in order.

Apart from the lack of space and the lack of people, that's a workable solution. Class sizes in many UK schools are such that double the number of rooms won't be enough, it's more like 2.2 - 2.5 times the number.

UK state schools simply don't have the space. The classrooms are typically 90%-100% occupied and the only additional spaces are likely to be a gym, dining room and assembly hall but in many cases these spaces are already doing double or triple duty.

As regards the people, it simply isn't a matter of recruiting them off the street. Not only would every candidate have to successfully pass a police records check but they would also have to receive many hours of specific safeguarding. There are currently around 7 million school children in the UK. Assuming that around 3 million can be looked after by the existing teachers and teaching assistants, a further 350,000* "zookeepers" would have to be recruited, cleared and trained - a Herculean task.

* - actually likely closer to 500,000 if you want to provide for sickness cover and 600,000 if there's going to be some kind of management oversight.

The Austrians have it right, alternate weeks and the parents have to look after their kids the other weeks.

McHrozni 10th June 2020 02:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim (Post 13120379)
That would be a great solution if schools had the space.

The kids who get to watch the video feed need not be in an actual school building. Any room that can house 12 students behind desks and a screen with internet connection can be used. If push comes to shove this can include buses.

It is NOT ideal, but better than trying to figure out how to fit a square with the base a into a circle with the diameter b, where b < a.

Quote:

I don't know how much it's changed in the decades since I was at school, but every school I attended had at least one portacabin set up on a field somewhere that was used as a classroom because there wasn't enough space in the school itself. They were a living hell in the summer.

Class sizes being too big and space too small has been known problems for literal decades. The problems aren't going to magically go away just because it now affects a pandemic (that the government doesn't really care about) rather than just the education of the majority of children (which the government also doesn't really care about).
This is a very valid complaint that should be looked at, perhaps as a result of the epidemic. But throwing your hands up in frustration because the task is just so difficult isn't going to do any good either.

Solutions to the problem exist, I named a few. Just because the UK was royally screwed up before the epidemic doesn't mean the epidemic should be used to screw it up to Imperial levels.

McHrozni

McHrozni 10th June 2020 02:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13120391)
Apart from the lack of space and the lack of people, that's a workable solution. Class sizes in many UK schools are such that double the number of rooms won't be enough, it's more like 2.2 - 2.5 times the number.

'kay.

Quote:

UK state schools simply don't have the space. The classrooms are typically 90%-100% occupied and the only additional spaces are likely to be a gym, dining room and assembly hall but in many cases these spaces are already doing double or triple duty.
Nowadays it is possible to set up housing based on shipping containers within hours. Many countries have those in stock for emergencies and natural disasters. You don't need to fit half a class inside, a quarter might do. You'll need more people but it's a workable solution.

Quote:

As regards the people, it simply isn't a matter of recruiting them off the street. Not only would every candidate have to successfully pass a police records check but they would also have to receive many hours of specific safeguarding.
Retired teachers and PE teachers who don't currently have a suitable task anyway are the first two groups of recruits of zookeepers (I love the term by the way). After that things do get complicated, but solutions exist all over the place.
Before we start with the obvious recruiting there's a possibility of reconstructing the classes in such a way as to remove children where a parent, grandparent or similar provider (older sibling, classmates' parent) is available from the improvised class and have them follow classes from home (on days when they are not scheduled to attend school in person, I need to stress this, they still attend school half the time), to make room for those who don't have that opportunity. That cuts down on personnel needs further.

It is not ideal, but it is doable.

Quote:

There are currently around 7 million school children in the UK.
Yes. But you only need to take care in this way of about 1/3 of those (the lowest three grades). The older kids can stay at home and watch the video from home.

That alone cuts down the requirement from 600,000 zookeepers to perhaps 200,000 - many of whom could be met with (recently) retired teachers and other such cadres, or older siblings, parents, grandparents, etcetera.

Quote:

The Austrians have it right, alternate weeks and the parents have to look after their kids the other weeks.
Obviously, but we already stated this was not a suitable solution.

There's another, simpler option. Dispense with social distancing between classes, but make damn sure classes don't mingle. All this separating and video feed really only improves this by a factor of 2, whereas quarantening classes already cuts down the number of interactions from hundreds into dosens, an improvement by a factor of 10 or more.

McHrozni

The Don 10th June 2020 02:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by McHrozni (Post 13120420)
Nowadays it is possible to set up housing based on shipping containers within hours. Many countries have those in stock for emergencies and natural disasters. You don't need to fit half a class inside, a quarter might do. You'll need more people but it's a workable solution.

Utter rubbish. Even if 350,000 such containers existed, had power, could be moved into some position somewhere there'd still be the issue of ensuring that 4 million displaced students could get to and from those containers.

Just admit that providing alternative space for 4 million students at short notice is, without fantastical expenditure, impossible.


Quote:

Originally Posted by McHrozni (Post 13120420)
Retired teachers and PE teachers who don't currently have a suitable task anyway are the first two groups of recruits of zookeepers (I love the term by the way). After that things do get complicated, but solutions exist all over the place.

AFAIK most PE teachers are also subject teachers in the UK - it's not like the US where it's a specialist position.

There may be some retired teachers who might be prepared to but their heath at risk and return to the classroom but the four I know/knew best (my parents and Mrs Don's parents) wouldn't be among them.


Quote:

Originally Posted by McHrozni (Post 13120420)
Before we start with the obvious recruiting there's a possibility of reconstructing the classes in such a way as to remove children where a parent, grandparent or similar provider (older sibling, classmates' parent) is available from the improvised class and have them follow classes from home (on days when they are not scheduled to attend school in person, I need to stress this, they still attend school half the time), to make room for those who don't have that opportunity. That cuts down on personnel needs further.

It is not ideal, but it is doable.

It's not ideal and it's not even doable, it's pure fantasy on your part to support your earlier ridiculous assertions.

The first significant problem is that it's currently illegal to be inside someone else's house (for very good reasons) so unless children are going to be left outside (good luck with that on a 12th floor flat), it's another non-starter. Individual arrangements like this for 7 million children are insane.



Quote:

Originally Posted by McHrozni (Post 13120420)
Yes. But you only need to take care in this way of about 1/3 of those (the lowest three grades). The older kids can stay at home and watch the video from home.

Eight year old children left unsupervised ? Now I know you're just having us on.


Quote:

Originally Posted by McHrozni (Post 13120420)
That alone cuts down the requirement from 600,000 zookeepers to perhaps 200,000 - many of whom could be met with (recently) retired teachers and other such cadres, or older siblings, parents, grandparents, etcetera.

Rubbish.

And individualising arrangements to each child is creating an administrative, and more importantly safeguarding nightmare.


Quote:

Originally Posted by McHrozni (Post 13120420)
Obviously, but we already stated this was not a suitable solution.

There's another, simpler option. Dispense with social distancing between classes, but make damn sure classes don't mingle. All this separating and video feed really only improves this by a factor of 2, whereas quarantening classes already cuts down the number of interactions from hundreds into dosens, an improvement by a factor of 10 or more.

McHrozni

How do you maintain inter-class quarantining at home ?

You've really not thought this through at all....

McHrozni 10th June 2020 03:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13120428)
Utter rubbish. Even if 350,000 such containers existed, had power, could be moved into some position somewhere there'd still be the issue of ensuring that 4 million displaced students could get to and from those containers.

Just admit that providing alternative space for 4 million students at short notice is, without fantastical expenditure, impossible.

Maybe. Providing alternative space for 1.2 million is far more doable though. Containers are just one such solution, historically railway cars were also used for the task. It's not like you need the solutions to be the same everywhere either.

Good? No. Better than saying "it's impossible, let's all die instead"? Yes.

Quote:

It's not ideal and it's not even doable, it's pure fantasy on your part to support your earlier ridiculous assertions.

The first significant problem is that it's currently illegal to be inside someone else's house (for very good reasons) so unless children are going to be left outside (good luck with that on a 12th floor flat), it's another non-starter. Individual arrangements like this for 7 million children are insane.
I can think of a solution or two. Passing a law that amends the legislation to be in someone else's house for the purpose of alternative classrooom seems a fairly simple possibility.

This cuts down the requirement for 7 million individual arrangements to one line of legislation. That's not bad for 6.5 seconds of work, I think.

Quote:

Eight year old children left unsupervised ? Now I know you're just having us on.
If you think it inappropriate add more greades until you reach the age you're comfortable with. I think it's appropriate, but if not the solution is simple enough. It complicates everything else down the line, but the solution itself is easy.

Quote:

And individualising arrangements to each child is creating an administrative, and more importantly safeguarding nightmare.
There are about three possible options to choose from. If you need a form tick the appropriate and you're done. It's not like there would be an essay-length piece about each child.

Quote:

How do you maintain inter-class quarantining at home ?
The exact same way it's being done now.

It is being done now, right? Because if not you might as well reopen schools and go for Brazilian option anyway.

McHrozni

Mojo 10th June 2020 05:08 AM

Coronavirus: UK economy could be worst hit among leading nations, says OECD

The Don 10th June 2020 05:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by McHrozni (Post 13120441)
Maybe. Providing alternative space for 1.2 million is far more doable though. Containers are just one such solution, historically railway cars were also used for the task. It's not like you need the solutions to be the same everywhere either.

Good? No. Better than saying "it's impossible, let's all die instead"? Yes.

Where do you magic 1.2 million from ?

In any case, the alternative to providing enough suitable space and properly qualified individuals to allow all 7 million UK school children to return to school while observing social distancing is not "let's all die" :confused:

You already described one perfectly acceptable alternative upthread, one that has been adopted by many other countries, to allow a proportion of students to return all the time and/or all students to return a proportion of the time. If the primary objective of the UK government was education then these would be the options being considered.

Another alternative is to be honest with the British (or more accurately English - because devolved governments are making their own plans) people and say that that the primary objective is childcare and that education and public health are secondary or tertiary considerations. Under this plan, all children can return to schools and the government crosses its fingers and hopes that a combination of enough parents keeping their kids at home and making alternative arrangements, low transmission among children and sheer luck means that there isn't a resultant increase in infection.

A third would be to just continue to wait it out until an effective vaccine and/or treatment is available and it's safe for children to go back to school. The economic shortcomings of this approach means that IMO it's unlikely to gain traction.

My own view is, based on their actions to date, the UK government will pick option 2 and blame local authorities, parents and children themselves for failing to "be alert" if the return to schools results in an increase in infection.

Quote:

Originally Posted by McHrozni (Post 13120441)
I can think of a solution or two. Passing a law that amends the legislation to be in someone else's house for the purpose of alternative classrooom seems a fairly simple possibility.

This cuts down the requirement for 7 million individual arrangements to one line of legislation. That's not bad for 6.5 seconds of work, I think.

One line of legislation which completely fails to take account of the wider concerns of public health and of safeguarding the children. Such a piece of legislation would be typical of the UK government - proposing a simple solution which creates more problems than it solves.

Quote:

Originally Posted by McHrozni (Post 13120441)
If you think it inappropriate add more greades until you reach the age you're comfortable with. I think it's appropriate, but if not the solution is simple enough. It complicates everything else down the line, but the solution itself is easy.

The answer is all years must be in school

Quote:

Originally Posted by McHrozni (Post 13120441)
There are about three possible options to choose from. If you need a form tick the appropriate and you're done. It's not like there would be an essay-length piece about each child.

Even if it were that simple, and even if all parents actually bothered to fill out and return those forms you'd still need to record and manage the results so that you know where Timmy Smith should be and who should be looking after him so that you could check that was indeed happening and groups of children weren't just being left unsupervised while their parents have to go out to work (because the furlough scheme has been wound up)



Quote:

Originally Posted by McHrozni (Post 13120441)
The exact same way it's being done now.

It is being done now, right? Because if not you might as well reopen schools and go for Brazilian option anyway.

McHrozni

No, it's not being done right now because people from different households have significant restrictions on how they can meet and they must maintain social distancing.

If entire classes are able to mix then as soon as those children go home they are mixing with their siblings and all concept of inter-class quarantine is lost.

The Don 10th June 2020 06:57 AM

More evidence that government dithering and incompetence has exacerbated the problem of Coronavirus in the UK

Quote:

Coronavirus was brought into the UK on at least 1,300 occasions, a major analysis of the genetics of the virus shows.

The study, by the Covid-19 Genomics UK consortium, quashes the idea that a single "patient zero" started the whole UK outbreak.

The analysis also finds China, where the pandemic started, had a negligible impact on cases in the UK and instead most cases came in from European countries.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

Good to see that it "only" took another 4 or 5 months for the government to act :rolleyes:

P.J. Denyer 10th June 2020 06:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by McHrozni (Post 13120367)
If parents staying at home to watch the kids is a major consideration you can also get children into two separate classrooms, in different buildings if possible. One group gets the live teacher, the other gets the video feed and someone to keep them in order.

It is not ideal. But it's entirely doable and gets the parents back to work, costs are managable. You only need that for grades 1-4, roughly. Older children can watch the video from home.

McHrozni


Off the wall thought, but there are a lot of pubs sitting empty, desperate for any income. They all have tables and chairs and most of them have big TV's or projectors that could be used for the video feed.


ETA: Of course the other issues raised by The Don regarding staffing would still apply.

Darat 10th June 2020 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mojo (Post 13120485)


Number one again!

Darat 10th June 2020 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer (Post 13120552)
Off the wall thought, but there are a lot of pubs sitting empty, desperate for any income. They all have tables and chairs and most of them have big TV's or projectors that could be used for the video feed.


ETA: Of course the other issues raised by The Don regarding staffing would still apply.


Can’t think of any way that could go wrong...... :D

Mojo 10th June 2020 10:42 AM

I noticed today that the government are giving numbers of tests “carried out or posted out” for the day. What exactly does this mean? Is it going to include any double counting?

P.J. Denyer 10th June 2020 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darat (Post 13120801)
Can’t think of any way that could go wrong...... :D

I am assuming supervision!

catsmate 10th June 2020 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mojo (Post 13120334)

We could send over our local foxes, they'd take care of the chicken and rat problems.
After all it's not like they're emus....


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