Could you let the PM know?

He’s already doing his best to minimise the second peak.

Sounds a bit like the “Carbolic Smoke Ball”.

Would this be confirmed if, say, South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand etc...had devastating second peaks, whereas the UK, the US and Brazil just sailed through it?

Or are talking in terms of relative to the first peak, in which case any number of deaths in South Korea, Taiwan and New Zealand could look bad?

Ah, Asquith... :D
Yep they both used 'carbolic' (i.e. phenol) which was a popular antiseptic; Lister's device was a serious (if deeply unsafe) attempt to reduce infections while the Smoke Ball was a stunt.

Indeed.

Given the uncertainty over how long immunity lasts, it is possible that the first wave will do nothing to the second wave beyond killing people earlier. And, by having a higher level in the population (the decline is slow in many places) making it bigger.

Oh, the second wave should kill fewer people, because the first was unexpected. The government have had time to prepare for a second wave, and will have not only ensured there are things like stockpiles of PPE and drugs, they'll also have been recruiting and training new staff in relevant fields, preparing new strategies after learning from the old ones, and ensuring that the public are well-informed and prepared.

I'm sure that's how it's going to play out.

I'm sure it will.

After all the current UK government (and the couple that preceded it) is world renowned for its ability to prepare in advance for things, for its level of attention to detail, its skill at executing a previously defined plan, its regard for experts and its ability to stick to its guns for the good of the country regardless of any short-term popularity issues.

If anyone needs any evidence of the above, they only need to look at the masterful way that the government handled the Brexit process and is handling the negotiations with the EU for the ongoing relationship after the transition period has expired. :rolleyes:

There could conceivably be something to it if:

• Countries like the UK had a significant majority of people infected in the first wave
• Being infected provided long-term immunity

Unfortunately, despite the number of deaths, the proportion of people who have been infected is still in the mid-single digits and as has been pointed out in all the Covid-19 threads, both the proportion of people who have been infected who gain immunity and the length of time for which that immunity lasts are being questioned.

There's no reason to assume that the UK would handle the second wave any better, or that for the same competence in dealing with the second wave that the impact would be any less severe.

Likewise, there's no reason to assume that New Zealand would suddenly become incompetent and/or that the impact would be higher, not least because their first wave was during Autumn/Winter.

More good news for those of us living in Wales:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51888681

Wales, and in particular the health board where I live, the Aneurin Bevan Health Board was hit particularly badly at the start of the outbreak. While some of the poorest parts of Wales still feature prominently in the lists of worst affected areas per capita, it seems that a lot of that data is historic and Coronavirus is currently nearly under control in Wales.

My local area, Monmouthshire, has only had a handful of confirmed cases in the past month and has gone as long as a week with no cases whatsoever. We are compromised by our proximity to England and the fact that a lot of people here work, and shop, over the border which means that there is a risk of returning with the virus.

I hope that the Welsh government continues to be cautious in lifting the lockdown restrictions and that the majority of people and businesses in Wales continue to act responsibly. For example, our local pub has chosen not to re-open for outside service because they feel that they cannot do so without compromising the safety of their staff and patrons. The vast majority of the comments to their announcement to this effect on Facebook were supportive and I'm sure that the support they have received for their takeaway service will continue.

I'm getting more and more inclined to shout "speak for yourself" in all this. There is no such thing as "the UK" in terms of coronavirus planning or response, not any more.

I'm not sure where to find the full modelling document, but the modellers' estimate of the number of people in Scotland who are infectious with coronavirus right now is estimated at 700. That's not the number of actual people tested and known about, which is considerably smaller, it's the number of people the statisticians believe to be actually infected calculating back from all the data available. That is 0.013% of the population or about one person in every eight thousand.

The political determination appears to be there to prevent this turning into a second wave and the public health teams seem to be on it and getting better by the week. The one thing I'm not confident about is the resolve to institute travel restrictions from outwith Scotland should that turn out to be necessary, and if that's the cause of us getting involved in a second wave happening elsewhere we will know who to blame.

There are four regions of Scotland which haven't had any cases at all for weeks. We're still damping it down elsewhere but that is being done. If England wants to have a second wave of sickness and death we do not want any part of it.

Matt Hancock says the govt is "rolling out new cutting-edge predictive technology" to forecast coronavirus hospitalisations.

.

Yes, where lockdown restrictions are lifted, Coronavirus hospitalisations are likely to increase.

Where they are retained, or reimposed they Coronavirus hospitalisations are likely to fall.

Unless of course Dom has worked out the graphing functions in Excel. :rolleyes:

Each one of these is a potential human tragedy. The Westminster government needs to stop thinking of them as statistics and points on a spreadsheet and start thinking about how to prevent these tragedies.

How long is it going to take the English population in particular to look at what's happening in other countries and realise that their own government is casually putting them in danger whereas other major industrial nations (with the conspicuous exception of the USA) are actually trying to protect their citizens?

SuperPredictor to the rescue!!!!!!!!

Well they swallowed Brexit so they're not that bright.

The UK Government seems to be driven almost exclusively by the need for positive publicity.

Opening up pubs and restaurants, having major sporting events on the TV and being able to go on your holidays all generate positive headlines.

Having had very high daily deaths a few months ago mean that even "66 people died in the UK of Coronavirus today" generates somewhat positive headlines.

Until and unless people start to react negatively to the number of new cases and/or number of deaths then the UK Government doesn't care. Even then, they'll have a jolly good go at blaming the public for failing to be alert rather than accepting responsibility for their lack of leadership and inability to provide good guidance to the public.

The public on the other hand are just happy to be in the pub or on the beach. I don't see the prospect of disgruntlement unless the numbers of cases and deaths return to their peaks and the weather turns in the autumn and people are less likely to go out and have fun.

Then again, yesterday he said face masks would be compulsory in takeaways, while today: Face masks not compulsory in takeaways in England, says Sharma

It's depressing. I only hope there is a vaccine soon. I wonder if Johnson is secretly banking on that to get him out of this.