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Search: Posts Made By: Oystein
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 2nd July 2022, 08:54 AM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
Snyder is not a Brit. Just saying. Maybe you...

Snyder is not a Brit. Just saying.

Maybe you mistake him for someone else?
A Yale professor who calls Brown U. his alma mater and got his doctorate from Oxford is not usually or likely a "light...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 29th June 2022, 06:55 PM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
Hmm okay. I'll wait.

Hmm okay. I'll wait.
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 29th June 2022, 03:04 AM
Replies: 29
Views: 1,383
Posted By Oystein
Thanks to both for the details.

Thanks to both for the details.
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 28th June 2022, 01:44 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 1,383
Posted By Oystein
I am mostly with you (Russia stands not chance,...

I am mostly with you (Russia stands not chance, mid- and long-term, short of using nukes), however I wonder:

Isn't the general doctrine to go after enemy's forward radar and AA capabilities before...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 28th June 2022, 01:36 PM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
Do you mean we revisit the map of Luhansk and...

Do you mean we revisit the map of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in three months time, on 2022/09/22, say 1200 UT, and ... then what? You bet Russia will not control the total area of both oblasts? ...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 28th June 2022, 01:30 PM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
A very easy metric: How much (area, people,...

A very easy metric: How much (area, people, control, assets) do you have today, compared to yesterday?
By and large, this metric sees Ukraine losing, probably every day.


D'uh!


Requires...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 28th June 2022, 01:08 PM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
And my view has been been all along that it is...

And my view has been been all along that it is unwise to call the News Good News, not even lowkey, while Ukraine is outgunned, suffering widespread destruction and (slow as they may be) enemy...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 28th June 2022, 12:59 PM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
Care for a bet? (That would need a few...

Care for a bet?
(That would need a few specifications - such as: what does "all be over" mean?)
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 28th June 2022, 12:51 PM
Replies: 543
Views: 24,188
Posted By Oystein
Hmm. Waitig for Hungary and Croatia to agree as...

Hmm.
Waitig for Hungary and Croatia to agree as well now (and the other 27)
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 26th June 2022, 03:39 PM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
Quick reminder: After 30 years, Germany still...

Quick reminder:
After 30 years, Germany still has not made a good job of rebuilding its East.
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 26th June 2022, 03:38 PM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
Already pointed out: Aggressor Movers some...

Already pointed out: Aggressor Movers some mediocre distance into defender's territory along a broad front, defender suffers unsustainable losses but gets support by Western allies, offense comes to...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 26th June 2022, 01:35 PM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
Thanks for admitting Russia is controlling Snake...

Thanks for admitting Russia is controlling Snake island. Which is the reason it gets bombarded. Why do you think you are disagreeing with me?
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 26th June 2022, 01:21 PM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
No, you misread me completely. I never claimed...

No, you misread me completely. I never claimed that Russia is on a path to winning. I am saying that currently Ukraine is losing - and I even added the explicit caveat "even if Russia not winning".
...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 26th June 2022, 01:18 PM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
More like the WW1 'Western Front' than like...

More like the WW1 'Western Front' than like Stalingrad. How could you miss all the similarities?
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 26th June 2022, 01:17 PM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
Can. Generally, however, that is not the case. ...

Can.
Generally, however, that is not the case.


You can have heavy costs in men and material and still win. E.g. if you inflict even heavier costs in men and material in your opponent. And that...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 24th June 2022, 02:09 PM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
Just found this short video, where someone...

Just found this short video, where someone animated the map of Russian-occupied territory since the war began.
One minute in, he show the Russian gains in the last 60 days - and the Russian losses....
Forum: Social Issues & Current Events 24th June 2022, 01:40 PM
Replies: 507
Views: 10,094
Posted By Oystein
Coincidentally, on this same day, today, 24th...

Coincidentally, on this same day, today, 24th June 2022, the German parliament repealed a law that banned (made criminal) advertising for abortion services. This was §219a of the Penal Code...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 24th June 2022, 01:26 PM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
You did not answer my question. Of course I...

You did not answer my question.
Of course I clicked not a single link. Posting a lenthy link list is something I have seen 9/11 Truthers do over and over again - and none of them impressed me, ever....
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 24th June 2022, 12:56 PM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
Thanks for agreeing with me. I did not...

Thanks for agreeing with me.


I did not say nor imply this at all.


I have not seen any reporting yet that the West is ramping up its industrial capacity to wartime demand. So far it's...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 24th June 2022, 01:59 AM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
Which is literally what I wrote: "the current...

Which is literally what I wrote: "the current situation, which is a stalemate..."

I went on to specify:

"... on UA ground, with UA on defense, and UA getting destroyed bit by bit. Every day...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 24th June 2022, 01:53 AM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
Yes :) Except it isn't atrocious, isn't...

Yes :)
Except it isn't atrocious, isn't ignorant (YOU choose to ignore the bad news), it's not screaming, not predicting doom. It's just - realistic.


Except that it is always sourced to quality...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 24th June 2022, 01:42 AM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
I am sure it would be no problem at all to list a...

I am sure it would be no problem at all to list a hundred Twitter accounts that tell stories diametrically opposed to the ones you picked to suit your preferred narrative.
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 24th June 2022, 01:40 AM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
Similarity -> Unchanging, rock-solid law of...

Similarity -> Unchanging, rock-solid law of nature? I think not.

I can easily think of a few circumstances that are VERY dissimilar. Such as: German Army being a thousand miles away from home,...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 23rd June 2022, 03:40 AM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
The Don, I appreciate your realistic accounting...

The Don, I appreciate your realistic accounting of the current situation, which is a stalemate on UA ground, with UA on defense, and UA getting destroyed bit by bit. Every day like this is a bad,...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 18th June 2022, 03:40 AM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
Talking We're close to agreement now. Just this: we knew...

We're close to agreement now. Just this: we knew UA is able to resist Russia seriously by mid-March, and robustly so when Russia started to regroup early April. The logistics to train and supply UA...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 18th June 2022, 03:33 AM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
I am actually surprised Russia did play by rules...

I am actually surprised Russia did play by rules to a large extent so long, and even more surprised Western politicians plan on an assumption that enough Russian gas will come to make it through next...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 18th June 2022, 03:30 AM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
I think Republicans are mostly firm on opposing...

I think Republicans are mostly firm on opposing Russia and helping Russia's victims, militarily or otherwise.

However. The overriding strategy in US party politics lately has been to stonewall...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 18th June 2022, 03:16 AM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
Avoid avoidable costy in terms of money/material...

Avoid avoidable costy in terms of money/material and, more importantly, homeside public and political support. They sort of try to have UA eat some cake and to have it, too.

I am not claiming that...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 17th June 2022, 04:22 PM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
I disagree that the slow rate of equipping...

I disagree that the slow rate of equipping Ukraine will ever allow it to win the war decisively. This is a feature.

The thing is that the West started equipping UA with "easy" things that can be...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 17th June 2022, 04:16 PM
Replies: 20
Views: 425
Posted By Oystein
Bollocks. The first is an OPINION, not a...

Bollocks.

The first is an OPINION, not a hypothesis.

The second is a claim of fact about me.

The two together make no sensible "null hypothesis" - it's utter bollocks.

The rest of your...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 16th June 2022, 01:26 PM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
Why do you say you disagree when in fact you do...

Why do you say you disagree when in fact you do agree that the West is planning and acting towards a prolonged war of attrition?
Forum: Conspiracies and Conspiracy Theories 16th June 2022, 09:18 AM
Replies: 63
Views: 1,631
Posted By Oystein
Jared. His portfolio included the Middle East,...

Jared. His portfolio included the Middle East, the Economy, Making America Great Again, Re-election, and Ruling Earth For Evermore.
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 16th June 2022, 09:06 AM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
They are not acting towards that end. This may...

They are not acting towards that end. This may indicate the West is not actually interested in handing Russia a quick loss.

Ukraine can only stalemate. To throw Russia out of UA, something...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 16th June 2022, 07:52 AM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
There is certainly truth in this, as indeed the...

There is certainly truth in this, as indeed the West is very much interested in having Russia very much weakened, and this objective would be met to a far lesser degree if Ukraine were able to effect...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 16th June 2022, 07:43 AM
Replies: 20
Views: 425
Posted By Oystein
CNN, like Reuters, is not the arbiter of what...

CNN, like Reuters, is not the arbiter of what borders sovereign countries do or don't have with one another.


The Montreux Convention is entirely unconcerned with, and makes precisely ZERO...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 15th June 2022, 11:10 AM
Replies: 543
Views: 24,188
Posted By Oystein
Yes. The thing is that the Article 5...

Yes.

The thing is that the Article 5 provisions are binding on all members: If one NATO member is attacked, all NATO members - that is to say: every single NATO member - is duty-bound to support...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 15th June 2022, 11:02 AM
Replies: 20
Views: 425
Posted By Oystein
No, as Reuters is not posting here. You are. It's...

No, as Reuters is not posting here. You are. It's your burden to post claims of fact that are true, not Reuters'.

Turkey has no "official [NATO or otherwise] border" with Russia that is of any...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 15th June 2022, 02:55 AM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
Kyiv no longer is a target. Reducing Ukraine,...

Kyiv no longer is a target. Reducing Ukraine, keeping Donbass and making UA effectively landlocked are. Such as to render it an unattractive bride to EU and NATO.
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 15th June 2022, 02:46 AM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
Bare assertion at this point.

Bare assertion at this point.
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 15th June 2022, 02:42 AM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
Why is the UA % of committed assets missing in...

Why is the UA % of committed assets missing in this table? Comparing total losses is of little meaning, if they constitute, say, 25% of Russian assets, but 95% of Ukrainian.
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 15th June 2022, 02:35 AM
Replies: 20
Views: 425
Posted By Oystein
For the umpteenth time: No. Turkey has no...

For the umpteenth time: No. Turkey has no "official border" with Russia, not via the Black Sea, nor is there such a thing as an "official NATO border". People will eventually come to doubt every...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 11th June 2022, 01:50 AM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
So let me throw out some raw ideas for what that...

So let me throw out some raw ideas for what that fundamental change might be:

Since UA is already doing what they can, and the West is sending the weapons they can spare, continuing on that level...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 11th June 2022, 12:56 AM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
[/QUOTE] Thanks for confirming what I assumed:...

[/QUOTE]
Thanks for confirming what I assumed: No one claims anywhere near to 40,000 Russian soldiers killed. Since that 32K number comes from Ukraine, common wisdom suggests it is, if anything, an...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 10th June 2022, 10:59 PM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
The same is true for Ukrainian troops - only more...

The same is true for Ukrainian troops - only more so, as they now get gear that's entirely new to them (and comes with English manuals, a language nit many there understand sufficiently).

Ukraine...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 10th June 2022, 12:45 PM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
How about Georgia? Step 1 is to have this...

How about Georgia?

Step 1 is to have this referendum in South Ossetia to join the Russian Federation. It's a short drive from there to Tbilisi. How is Georgia going to defend itself against...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 9th June 2022, 02:14 PM
Replies: 543
Views: 24,188
Posted By Oystein
I am not sure you / you all / we underestimate...

I am not sure you / you all / we underestimate just how much the Turks hate the Kurds and want to genocide them.
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 9th June 2022, 02:12 PM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
I think it is time to sink the entire Russian...

I think it is time to sink the entire Russian Black Sea fleet in a show of force - 2 days at most. One day to shock and humiliate them, a second day to show off Russia has nowhere to flee and no way...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 4th June 2022, 11:04 AM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
Ukrainian sources are reporting that colonel...

Ukrainian sources are reporting that colonel general Gennady Zhidko (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gennady_Zhidko) "had been put in charge of Russian forces during the 2022 Russian invasion of...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 2nd June 2022, 11:35 PM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
Ha! But that is what Russia is trying so hard to...

Ha! But that is what Russia is trying so hard to achieve! You see, Russia's borders reeeeaaaalllllyyyyyy are somewhere West of Lwiw and Brest and Odesa and Kaliningrad, and South of Tblisi, Baku and...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 2nd June 2022, 11:22 PM
Replies: 1,439
Views: 44,567
Posted By Oystein
Because such things (introducing new and advanced...

Because such things (introducing new and advanced weapons systems, including restoring and upgrading them, then train sufficient numbers of troops thoroughly) take the longest, they ought to have...
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