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Search: Posts Made By: The Don
Forum: USA Politics Today, 01:04 PM
Replies: 1,340
Views: 71,205
Posted By The Don
It's rare that we agree, but this is one of those...

It's rare that we agree, but this is one of those rare cases.
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics Today, 04:32 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
IMO yes, and no. They have a lot of forces...

IMO yes, and no.

They have a lot of forces in the South of Ukraine. AIUI they are gradually building defensive positions there to allow them to redeploy some of their forces into Donbas.

Russia...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics Yesterday, 03:17 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
I know that I annoy you all with my gloomy...

I know that I annoy you all with my gloomy assessment of the war in Ukraine but I don't think that it's out of step with the media consensus. For example from the BBC today:
...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 22nd June 2022, 01:08 PM
Replies: 18
Views: 731
Posted By The Don
Ice free port on the Baltic ?

Ice free port on the Baltic ?
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 22nd June 2022, 08:26 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
Reading the article and the numbers involved -...

Reading the article and the numbers involved - talking about general numbers of 2,128 killed and 8,897 wounded - I reckon it's the latter.

If they've managed to mobilise tens of thousands of men...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 22nd June 2022, 07:50 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
Particularly in view of the fact the service...

Particularly in view of the fact the service would be more dangerous, and the pay likely worse, than if they joined the Wagner Group instead.
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 22nd June 2022, 07:01 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
Those are some awfully high casualty rates - long...

Those are some awfully high casualty rates - long may it continue.

That also depends on what "55% of its original force" means. If it's 55% of the force on the day of the start of the war then...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 22nd June 2022, 01:54 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
I mentioned "the South" where ISW say: ...

I mentioned "the South" where ISW say:



If you consider ISW to be Russian propaganda then I think you are wrong, I think that they take an impartial view based on a variety of sources -...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 22nd June 2022, 01:21 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
Another grim summary from ISW yesterday if you...

Another grim summary from ISW yesterday if you support Ukraine:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-21

The Russians are making significant...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 20th June 2022, 10:28 PM
Replies: 18
Views: 731
Posted By The Don
I agree. One suggestion was that Russia...

I agree.

One suggestion was that Russia could make a brief incursion of a kilometre or so, dig in, and make life difficult for a Baltic state and NATO but as you point out, that's likely an empty...
Forum: Economics, Business and Finance 20th June 2022, 01:40 AM
Replies: 84
Views: 1,101
Posted By The Don
The opposite is true in large parts of the UK. ...

The opposite is true in large parts of the UK.

Our flat in Bristol is valued at 400k-450k. A 400k mortgage would cost a little over 2,000 a month, we rent it out for 1,250 a month.
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 20th June 2022, 12:36 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
Another lengthy and fascinating video from Perun,...

Another lengthy and fascinating video from Perun, this time about the economic impact of the war on Russia and Ukraine.

qGGwO99fQaI

yt;dw version.

The Russian economy is hurting but will not...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 17th June 2022, 08:38 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
That's underselling it, if true it's downright...

That's underselling it, if true it's downright terrifying and a clear signal to Putin that he has won the war :mad:

If he ends up with another slice of Ukraine it's a clear signal that he, or his...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 17th June 2022, 01:22 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
An interesting and encouraging summary,...

An interesting and encouraging summary, especially the parts you've highlighted. I wonder how much of it is for external, public, consumption and how much is being used to make strategic decisions.
...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 16th June 2022, 02:34 AM
Replies: 2,189
Views: 61,032
Posted By The Don
I'd recommend attacking the advisor for failing...

I'd recommend attacking the advisor for failing to stay the course and abandoning the ship when there's a war on. :rolleyes:
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 15th June 2022, 02:49 PM
Replies: 2,189
Views: 61,032
Posted By The Don
Yay, we're going to be a rogue state :mad:

Yay, we're going to be a rogue state :mad:
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 15th June 2022, 04:19 AM
Replies: 2,189
Views: 61,032
Posted By The Don
He had his fingers crossed when he signed the...

He had his fingers crossed when he signed the deal and always intended to renege on renegotiate the deal at the first opportunity. The key thing is that he "Got Brexit Done" whatever that means.
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 15th June 2022, 02:48 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
Another day, another set of familiar stories from...

Another day, another set of familiar stories from the BBC:


The Russians continue to advance slowly on the eastern front
Russia is creeping closer to Kharkiv, reversing Ukrainian gains
...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 14th June 2022, 10:59 PM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
Zero, leaders' family aren't expected to serve...

Zero, leaders' family aren't expected to serve alongside the proles.

The last Perun video I linked to talks about where the Russian infantry is coming from. A disproportionate number of deaths...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 14th June 2022, 10:47 PM
Replies: 2,189
Views: 61,032
Posted By The Don
A typical UK Tory government scheme, based on a...

A typical UK Tory government scheme, based on a dogmatic need to please their xenophobic base, a colossal waste of money and illegal. :mad:

Their response is a typical UK Tory government one....
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 14th June 2022, 10:16 PM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
Unfortunately, Russia doesn't have to capture...

Unfortunately, Russia doesn't have to capture Kyiv and install a puppet regime to achieve some of their war aims. Simply establishing a land bridge between Crimea and Donbas is a big plus for them...
Forum: USA Politics 14th June 2022, 10:54 AM
Replies: 126
Views: 4,498
Posted By The Don
Liz Cheney has been vilified and thrown out of...

Liz Cheney has been vilified and thrown out of her state party for daring to suggest that Joe Biden won fair and square. How many of her colleagues are willing to do the same ?
Forum: USA Politics 14th June 2022, 08:29 AM
Replies: 126
Views: 4,498
Posted By The Don
I find your confidence in the GOP charming and...

I find your confidence in the GOP charming and encouraging. I do not share it.

I'd have thought that it was only a lunatic fringe of the party who would believe that the vote was stolen from...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 14th June 2022, 07:01 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
Yes, that's because, for the last couple of...

Yes, that's because, for the last couple of months, the news every day seems to be the same:


Relentless Russian artillery barrages
Tiny incremental gains on the Eastern front
Holding ground...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 14th June 2022, 05:45 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
From yesterday's ISW campaign update: ...

From yesterday's ISW campaign update:


Russian forces pushed Ukrainian defenders from the center of Severodonetsk and reportedly destroyed the remaining bridge from Severodonetsk to Lysychansk...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 14th June 2022, 05:31 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
Other sources disagree with you and think that...

Other sources disagree with you and think that whilst the majority of Russian tanks in storage are indeed scrap and cannot be returned to service, the sheer size of the Russian stock means that...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 14th June 2022, 02:50 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
that haven't been poked at here as much -[/QUOTE]...

that haven't been poked at here as much -[/QUOTE]

If I understand those numbers, they're saying that the Russians have lost 44.5% of the tanks they have committed in Ukraine.

They have lost...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 13th June 2022, 10:10 PM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
It's possible but IMO very unlikely. More...

It's possible but IMO very unlikely.

More likely that the GOP in the senate plus the two quislings prevent any further help. :mad:
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 13th June 2022, 09:58 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
This is at the core of the Perun video. His...

This is at the core of the Perun video. His opinion is that the Russian army has a surfeit of metal and a shortage of infantry. The gaps are being plugged by conscripts from the occupied territories...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 13th June 2022, 07:23 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
You're absolutely correct, Ukraine's forces could...

You're absolutely correct, Ukraine's forces could be gradually extending Russian supply lines and the logistics issues that severely hampered Russian forces in the early part of the war could return....
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 13th June 2022, 06:47 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
Yes, that's what I see as well :( Also the...

Yes, that's what I see as well :(

Also the Russians are advancing Westwards from Izyum and are reversing some of Ukraine's gains near Kherson.

It's not quick, it's not pretty, but Russia seem...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 13th June 2022, 03:16 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
The video shows pictures from of the Donbas...

The video shows pictures from of the Donbas conscripts show them with WWII era uniforms and using Mosin rifles. Perun says that they have been equipped to a lower standard than Russian regulars or...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 13th June 2022, 02:30 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
That's not what Perun's analysis, contained in...

That's not what Perun's analysis, contained in the video, seems to indicate. The conscripts from the Donbas are being thrown into the fray with minimal training and with outdated and insufficient...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 12th June 2022, 11:03 PM
Replies: 3,129
Views: 214,255
Posted By The Don
Looks like the UK government is going to blunder...

Looks like the UK government is going to blunder into yet another crisis by pandering to the Protestant Taliban :mad:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61779552

Looks like we'll scrap the Northern...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 12th June 2022, 10:58 PM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
The latest instalment of Perun's excellent series...

The latest instalment of Perun's excellent series of long videos. This one is about Russian infantry.

AKewF8_SiIs

In this one, he examines the hypothesis that they have to much equipment...
Forum: USA Politics 12th June 2022, 10:37 PM
Replies: 164
Views: 8,473
Posted By The Don
Close to zero IMO. The right is very good at...

Close to zero IMO. The right is very good at voting for their candidate.
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 12th June 2022, 02:25 PM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
Russia has had 8 years to disappear anyone who...

Russia has had 8 years to disappear anyone who isn't a Russophile. A few may have slipped through the net but IMO those left in the occupied territories are firmly pro-Russian. :(
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 12th June 2022, 12:57 PM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
Regarding the last point. Because, since 2014,...

Regarding the last point. Because, since 2014, the Russians have been cleansing the occupied territories of non-Russian supporters.
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 12th June 2022, 10:30 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
They are currently holding between 20% and 25% of...

They are currently holding between 20% and 25% of Ukraine's land mass and IMO it's not obvious how they are going to be dislodged. Even if Ukraine are successful in re-conquering the separatist-held...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 12th June 2022, 08:36 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
No, but they can unfortunately achieve some of...

No, but they can unfortunately achieve some of their apparent objectives..

They have their land bridge between Crimea and Russia they may soon have all of Luhansk and they have destroyed a chunk...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 12th June 2022, 04:54 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
The Russians consider quantity to be a quality of...

The Russians consider quantity to be a quality of its own. As a result they seem to have huge stockpiles of all kinds of military equipment.

They appear to be poorly maintained but so far they're...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 12th June 2022, 04:47 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
They're holding onto their gains in the South and...

They're holding onto their gains in the South and have dug in near Kharkiv. They have demonstrated that they are incapable of a war of movement on multiple fronts and have instead opted for a war of...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 12th June 2022, 02:52 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
The Russians are currently firing around 10 times...

The Russians are currently firing around 10 times the number of rounds the Ukrainians are and are showing no signs of abating.

Artillery fire isn't magic but it is allowing the Russians to advance...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 12th June 2022, 02:46 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
If they have 50 million rounds in reserve then it...

If they have 50 million rounds in reserve then it doesn't matter for the foreseeable future.

If it takes months to wear out a gun, and they have tens of thousands in reserve then they won't need...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 11th June 2022, 02:32 PM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
You're right but the artillery barrages continue...

You're right but the artillery barrages continue unabated, Russia continues to gain ground, it looks like they're going to surround Ukraine forces in Luhansk and they still have the men and materiel...
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 11th June 2022, 02:02 PM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
Ukraine's repeated requests for more artillery to...

Ukraine's repeated requests for more artillery to allow them to fight the Russians
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 11th June 2022, 06:14 AM
Replies: 1,162
Views: 36,038
Posted By The Don
Sadly, they seem to have no shortage of artillery...

Sadly, they seem to have no shortage of artillery and shells and no shortage of cannon fodder to send in after the artillery barage.
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 11th June 2022, 02:48 AM
Replies: 2,189
Views: 61,032
Posted By The Don
Let them eat hake ?

Let them eat hake ?
Forum: Non-USA & General Politics 10th June 2022, 11:42 PM
Replies: 2,189
Views: 61,032
Posted By The Don
I'm hard pressed to think of a touted government...

I'm hard pressed to think of a touted government policy in the last few years that wasn't :mad:

My only comfort is that Boris Johnson and his cronies announce all kinds of schemes to get headlines...
Forum: USA Politics 10th June 2022, 11:39 PM
Replies: 2,992
Views: 155,415
Posted By The Don
Ladbrokes is a UK-based bookmaker and those odds...

Ladbrokes is a UK-based bookmaker and those odds reflect where the bets have been placed to date.

Odds of 5/2 mean that you get 2.5 times your bet (plus the original stake) returned in the event...
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