Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 7

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Perghozin: If you put us in Belarus, I can take Kiev in 3 days.
Putin: No you can't
Perghozin: If I could take Moscow in three days, would you believe me?
Putin: Of course
Perghozin: <<Turns towards Moscow>>
Putin: OK wait, go to Belarus
 
Drewbot said:
Perghozin: If you put us in Belarus, I can take Kiev in 3 days.
Putin: No you can't
Perghozin: If I could take Moscow in three days, would you believe me?
Putin: Of course
Perghozin: <<Turns towards Moscow>>
Putin: OK wait, go to Belarus
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I assume this is humour rather than a serious proposition. If they wanted Wagner in Belarus to launch an attack from there they'd have just transferred the forces, before the advance on Moscow debacle. If it was the advance on Moscow that 'persuaded' Putin, then all of Wagner would be being transferred not just Prigozhin, with the rest of the group seemingly being broken up.
 
Putin claims that since the start of the counteroffensive, Russia has destroyed 259 Ukrainian tanks and 780 armored vehicles.

He should not have left out the part where they also killed 855,334 Ukrainian soldiers, sank three Ukrainian Nimitz-class aircraft carriers and shot down 57 Ukrainian B-70s and a pair of their space shuttles. They also captured Kyiv, razed it, rebuilt it, left, and are now about to capture it again.

I mean, if you’re going to make up idiotic fantasies, don’t go halfway.
 
lobosrul5 said:
They'd have to use them in a direct fire artillery support role, aka an assault gun. Akin to a WW2 Stug or similar. Even by Russian standards indirect fire from a tank would be uselessly inaccurate, unless they are just shelling a city indiscriminately as a terror weapon.
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They have indirect fire tables for tanks because the Russians do in fact intend to be able to use them this way. Yeah, they're not very accurate, but the use of drones as spotters allows for much better adjust and fire cycles than you could get, say, 50 years ago. And if you're trying to repel an assault, you don't necessarily need the best precision, especially if you're firing en mass.
 
Andy_Ross said:
Tank guns have very limited elevation. Their indirect fire range is limited.
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Sure. But the Russians still have use for short range artillery. And "short range" here is still on the order of 15 km. Not all engagements are at long range. It's a bad idea to substitute short range artillery for long range artillery, but it's not a bad idea to supplement long range artillery with short range artillery.

It's not particularly good short range artillery, but it's better than nothing, and those 100mm shells aren't being used by anything else.
 
Ziggurat said:
Sure. But the Russians still have use for short range artillery. And "short range" here is still on the order of 15 km. Not all engagements are at long range. It's a bad idea to substitute short range artillery for long range artillery, but it's not a bad idea to supplement long range artillery with short range artillery.

It's not particularly good short range artillery, but it's better than nothing, and those 100mm shells aren't being used by anything else.
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There were reports last year of a Ukrainian T-64 taking out a Russian tank over 10km away with indirect fire:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidh...reaking-tank-to-tank-kill-from-six-miles-away
 
Jack by the hedge said:
If you're digging them in anyway, you can gain elevation by digging an emplacement that slopes upward.
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Soviet-legacy tanks have been used this way for a long time. I remember seeing news footage of Iraqi T-72 tanks used that way during the first Gulf War (1991).

It might not be very accurate and seems to make American veterans shudder in disbelief - but it is (or was) common practice in some nations equipped with old Soviet equipment.
 
Maybe nothing new but the Chinese position has been restated:

‘Don’t see why not’: China envoy on backing Ukraine’s ’91 borders

China’s envoy to the European Union has suggested that Beijing could back Ukraine’s aims of reclaiming its 1991 territorial integrity, which includes Crimea – the peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014.

In a recent interview with Al Jazeera and two other media outlets, when Fu Cong was asked about supporting Kyiv’s goals, which includes reclaiming other Ukrainian regions now occupied by Russia, the senior Chinese diplomat said: “I don’t see why not.
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Not that they are doing anything to make this happen.
 
A retired Russian tank battalion commander has given a frank interview about the rampant corruption that he says has led to the "complete collapse of the Russian army" in the last 16 years. His comments highlight how the army has rotted from within during the Putin era.
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https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1673426878583959554.html

A bit long but worth the read.
 
jeremyp said:
I wonder how much of that is still true. The Russian army has been at war for a year and if it was still as bad as described, I don't think it would b e putting up any kind of fight now.
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The Russian Army may be doing a bit better, but, first, holding prepared defensive positions is much easier than attacking, and second, as we've discussed, most of their problems would require years to correct, if they even could be.
 
I'm not a fan of Branko Marcetik, but I believe he makes his point well here:https://jacobin.com/2023/06/prigozhin-mutiny-putin-invasion-ukraine-war-regime-change-western-commentary
The most obvious takeaway from all this is the self-defeating folly of war as a means to resolve national and geopolitical problems. Russian security, let alone the stability of Putin’s rule, would undoubtedly be in a better place today had he listened to his foreign minister and continued diplomatic efforts in late February 2022 — or even if he had simply done nothing at all. As it is, Putin has brought upon the Russian population — whose interests he’s meant to be serving — painful sanctions, global stigma, a stream of terrorist attacks, the possibility of nuclear annihilation, and now, the threat of civil war and the possible violent overthrow of the government. A war supposedly launched for the sake of Russian national security has ended up the most damaging thing to it.
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Put aman in a trench with information he will be shot at by the enemy or by his own if he tries to run.
Of course he will put some effort I to it, that means the enemy will suffer.

But if overwhelmed then the real nature of thier courage and training is known.
 
shemp said:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1673426878583959554.html

A bit long but worth the read.
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Interesting!! (Even with a pinch of salt thrown in, just in case the soldier's got a chip, and is exaggerating, a bit. Even allowing for that, very interesting, how the Russian army's a complete shambles --- as evidenced by Ukraine.)

Another thing you militarily-clued-in folks may've known about, but I absolutely did not, was this weird Wagner thing. I'd no idea mercenaries were a thing, in this day and age, outside of movies. It was ...illuminating, to hear about the unbelievable career of this mass-murdering psychopath Prigo, or whatever his name is. Lovely pair, those two, Putin and he.
 
SpitfireIX said:
The Russian Army may be doing a bit better, but, first, holding prepared defensive positions is much easier than attacking, and second, as we've discussed, most of their problems would require years to correct, if they even could be.
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The very fact that they prepared some defensive positions would seem remarkable for such a dysfunctional army.

The whole Russian army cannot be that bad.
 
Chanakya said:
Interesting!! (Even with a pinch of salt thrown in, just in case the soldier's got a chip, and is exaggerating, a bit. Even allowing for that, very interesting, how the Russian army's a complete shambles --- as evidenced by Ukraine.)

Another thing you militarily-clued-in folks may've known about, but I absolutely did not, was this weird Wagner thing. I'd no idea mercenaries were a thing, in this day and age, outside of movies. It was ...illuminating, to hear about the unbelievable career of this mass-murdering psychopath Prigo, or whatever his name is. Lovely pair, those two, Putin and he.
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The British army has a regiment of mercenaries from Nepal. They are based in Catterick in North Yorkshire.
 
Chanakya said:
I'd no idea mercenaries were a thing, in this day and age, outside of movies.
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There are plenty of mercenaries around. It has been mentioned that the British have the Gurkhas, and the French have their Foreign Legion. Even the Pope has his Swiss guard.

For many years companies like Blackwater were a considerable factor in Africa, and most here on this forum can remember how they over-stepped their mandate in Iraq, and got bad publicity out of it. The only lasting effect was a change of name.
 
jeremyp said:
The very fact that they prepared some defensive positions would seem remarkable for such a dysfunctional army.

The whole Russian army cannot be that bad.
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The defensive positions are much better now than they were a year ago. But the defensive plans they use are pretty much a world war 1 style trench system. Not as effective as they were back then thanks to accurate support weapons and the ability of tanks to go over or around them. But they are not ineffective either.

It would seem that their engineers are getting things done. But they are not the ones doing the fighting.
 
Trenches are great for defending against infantry frontal assaults.

They are a death trap for defenders, when a squad of infantry gets dropped off by an IFV , & well armed soldiers get into the trench, with the IFV covering the top-side of the trench.

Defenders can't see anyone coming down the side of the trench, because they have curves and turns to prevent grenade/artillery damage.
 
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Techniques and tactics for overcoming trench systems were developed and successfully used by the Germans in 1918 for their last offensive.
 
What about the arrival of Prigozhin and the Wagner group in Belarus ?

(in French - paywalled)

"Seen from the Czech Republic. Has Prigozhin been sent to Belarus to open a new front?
Yevgeny Prigozhin's flight to Belarus would allow Vladimir Putin to open a new front in his war against Ukraine, while Alexander Lukashenko, a mere puppet, would have obtained guarantees for the maintenance of order in the event of protests in his country. This is the analysis offered by this Russian journalist in the Czech daily "Denik N".
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Flo said:
What about the arrival of Prigozhin and the Wagner group in Belarus ?

(in French - paywalled)
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That theory makes no sense to me at all. It makes negative sense. It's a conspiracy theory.

Putin didn't need to repudiate Wagner, to send them to Belarus. He could have just ordered the Wagner troops to transfer to that front. This whole rigamarole of mutiny and shooting down Russian aircraft and demanding Shoigu's head on a pike? Completely unnecessary and wasteful and ******* stupid, even by Moscow standards.

Not only that, but Wagner attacking from Belarus is almost as big a problem for Belarus as if their own troops were attacking. I don't think it creates the imagined political loophole for Lukashenko, with his own people.

Not only that, but Ukraine already has strong border defenses and troops in place, against a surprise attack from that direction. Such an attack, by Wagner without significant Belarussian combat support, wouldn't distract from the Ukrainian counter-offensive as much as Putin might hope.

I think this incident is exactly what it says on the tin: An attempted mutiny by disgruntled mercenaries, successfully put down by the regime. Wagner either gets disbanded, reconstituted, or absorbed into another PMC. Prigozhin lives in exile, on borrowed time.
 
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theprestige said:
And we have plenty of footage of soldiers in this war storming trenches in textbook fashion straight from Rommel's "Infantry Attacks". It's pretty crazy.
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Well trenches are still one of the best defensive measures there is. Just because they are not as effective now as they were from 1914 to 1917 doesn't mean they don't work at all.
 
theprestige said:
It was a commentary on how war never changes and how, a hundred years on, it's still valid to storm a trench with submachine guns and hand grenades.
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It changes so little that many of the trenches are in exactly the position of those stormed in the distant past.
 
theprestige said:
That theory makes no sense to me at all. It makes negative sense. It's a conspiracy theory.
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Does anything make any sense in this whole story, anyway ?

I think this incident is exactly what it says on the tin: An attempted mutiny by disgruntled mercenaries, successfully put down by the regime. Wagner either gets disbanded, reconstituted, or absorbed into another PMC. Prigozhin lives in exile, on borrowed time.
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My sentiment too, up to the point where Putin and his generals have allowed Prigozhin to "escape" to Belarus (or anywhere else).

Not only that, but Wagner attacking from Belarus is almost as big a problem for Belarus as if their own troops were attacking. I don't think it creates the imagined political loophole for Lukashenko, with his own people.
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Sure, but Lukashenko might believe it …

Anyway, I'm trying to remember not to attribute to (Putin's) malice what relies on general Russian incoherence …
 
Andy_Ross said:
The British army has a regiment of mercenaries from Nepal. They are based in Catterick in North Yorkshire.
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Gurhkas in British service aren't really mercenaries. They exist due to a treaty between the Nepali and British governments. Not a private company, but instead something done and approved officially by both governments.

Nepal also used to also such a relationship with India (carried over after Indian independence) but I don't think that group is around anymore.
 
theprestige said:
I think this incident is exactly what it says on the tin: An attempted mutiny by disgruntled mercenaries, successfully put down by the regime. Wagner either gets disbanded, reconstituted, or absorbed into another PMC. Prigozhin lives in exile, on borrowed time.
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One of the takes I've seen on this which makes sense given what's publicly known (and therefore could still be wrong) is that Prigozhin never expected or intended his coup to succeed. Rather, given his conflict with the military, he was just looking for an exit strategy. The coup wasn't really about overthrowing anyone, it was merely a method to get the best terms he could for his exit. An it may have worked. Though if I were Progozhin, I'd still be looking to see if I could find asylum in the west, where getting assassinated is harder (but still not impossible).
 
Andy_Ross said:
The British army has a regiment of mercenaries from Nepal. They are based in Catterick in North Yorkshire.
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That’s interesting! I mean, that an army as …mainstream?... as the British, employs these mercenaries. (Mainstream, I mean, as opposed to the Russia under Putin, I mean to say, where you wouldn’t really be surprised to find hired thugs running loose in the army, or for that matter within the country and policing the citizens, or whatever.)

I looked it up, a bit. (Just the wiki, not a deep dive into the thing!) The history of it is interesting, going way way way back, literally two centuries apparently. (Although it does say there, explicitly, that basis 1949 onwards these guys aren’t, in fact, mercenaries --- but that’s fine, I suppose they had been, for the hundred years or so before that.)


steenkh said:
There are plenty of mercenaries around. It has been mentioned that the British have the Gurkhas, and the French have their Foreign Legion. Even the Pope has his Swiss guard.

For many years companies like Blackwater were a considerable factor in Africa, and most here on this forum can remember how they over-stepped their mandate in Iraq, and got bad publicity out of it. The only lasting effect was a change of name.
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Yes, those two I’d been aware of, actually. The French Legion, I mean, and the Swiss Guard at the Vatican. Hadn’t really related them with the mercenary-ing business, somehow, although I guess I should have. (Haven’t looked it up, I’ll take your word for it that they are indeed mercenaries.) …Although the Vatican thing, that’s probably just a historical oddity, a culture thing basically? It isn’t as if they even have a real army, and nor can or will they actually fight an actual war or anything, will they? But still, interesting. And the French Legion, they’re probably full-on equipped to fight if necessary, much like the Gurkha mercenaries over at the UK.


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Wonder how the thing works, in general? Don’t they actually get regular salary and benefits and pension and the rest of it, these mercenaries, like people do who serve in the regular army? Simply have some money thrown their way, is it, or might there be a regular contract and all, as with other kinds of contractors?

Even more interestingly, how might the legality of it work? No one can go off to another country and rob banks or murder people, just because it happens to be in another country, at least not legally, or so I’d imagine. Even if the country where they’re committing their crimes doesn’t act against them, I imagine their own country will look on that as a crime. Why would that change, just because they’re doing all of that not off of their own steam, but on the orders of someone? …So that, should someone go and enroll with these Wagner thugs, and go killing people and knocking down infrastructure in Ukraine, I’d imagine that, regardless of what Ukraine is able to do about it, their own countries will look on what they did as a crime. And if that is true, then I don’t see the legality of that will change if they go fight and kill on behalf of the British, or the French, instead of the Russians.

Or am I wrong? That is, is mercenary-ing actually a valid legal thing, for people to do, completely weird though that sounds? (I haven’t actually looked it up, and the wiki about the Gurkhas doesn’t seem to have touched on that part of it, but I’d imagine that, given the long history of it, and also the very specific nature of the engagement, there would probably be some kind of definitive agreement between Nepal and the UK specifically covering the Gurkhas. Likewise the Swiss Guard at the Vatican, because that also goes way back, and that also is very specific. But for the rest, the French Legion for instance, and even more so this Wagner thing, I wonder how the legality of it works, as far as the countries from where these mercenaries are drawn. ...Unless, of course, they’re an all-Russian outfit?)
 
delivery of the first 14 M1A1 FEP Abrams. This company of tanks will be received by the 1st Warsaw Armoured Brigade, of the 18th Mechanized Division.

In total, Poland has purchased 116 of these refurbished and modified M1A1 FEPs and 250 new M1A2 SEPv3s. In addition to the tanks, Poland will also receive M88A2 Hercules ARVs and M1074 Joint Assault Bridges.
 
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