the Chandler-MacQueen-Szamboti fallacy
In separate papers, David Chandler and MacQueen/Szamboti have argued that
David Chandler said:
The roof line of the North Tower of the World Trade Center is shown to have been in constant downward acceleration until it disappeared.
As I will demonstrate in this post, that argument is fallacious. As I will show below, plausible interpretations of the raw data presented by Chandler and by MacQueen/Szamboti involve brief upward accelerations.
At its core, the Chandler-MacQueen-Szamboti argument is built upon naive misapplication of the Shannon-Nyquist sampling theorem
WP. That theorem asserts that it is possible to reconstruct a signal from regularly spaced samples provided
- There are infinitely many samples.
- The signal is band-limited.
- The sampling rate exceeds the signal's Nyquist rateWP.
Whenever Chandler or MacQueen/Szamboti claim that no decelerations are seen in their data, they are implicitly appealing to this fundamental sampling theorem. That argument is fallacious because
- There are only finitely many samples in their data.
- The signal is not known to be band-limited.
- The sampling rate is lower than the Nyquist rateWP expected for the signal.
Point 1 (finitely many samples) isn't so bad: It just means we'll get an imperfect estimate of the original signal instead of a perfect reconstruction.
Points 2 and 3 are fatal to the Chandler-MacQueen-Szamboti argument. Because the signal is not known to be band-limited, and the sampling rate is too low for a signal that contains jolts as brief as the ones that Chandler, MacQueen, and Szamboti are attempting to rule out, there are infinitely many reconstructions of the signal from their sampled position data. The more plausible reconstructions contain the decelerations that Chandler, MacQueen, and Szamboti have been denying.
Before I demonstrate that fact using three specific reconstructions that match Chandler's data, let's take a moment to consider how such a fundamental mistake could have been made by a teacher of high school science, a professor of religious studies, and a mechanical engineer. The sampling theorem is important for electrical engineering, and a required topic in undergraduate EE curricula. It is less important for mechanical engineering, and I do not know whether it is even a required topic for ME or physics majors. It is not a required topic in most undergraduate math curricula, although it would be covered in some elective courses.
It is therefore quite possible that Chandler, MacQueen, and Szamboti never encountered the fundamental theorem of sampling during their formal education, or have simply forgotten its details. That may excuse their ignorance of the theorem on which their "argument" rests, but it does not excuse their arrogance and arguments from false authority. Building your argument upon mathematics you don't understand seldom ends well.
To illustrate the range of signals that will fit sampled position data, I will use Chandler's raw data as reported on pages 6 and 7 of
David Chandler. Destruction of the World Trade Center North Tower and Fundamental Physics (Interpreted for a less technical audience).
http://journalof911studies.com/volume/2010/ChandlerDownwardAccelerationOfWTC1.pdf
These data were obtained using the Tracker program, which Tony Szamboti used to obtain the
four new data points he has made public. Chandler's data measure the height (in meters) of the North Tower's roof at intervals of 1/5 second. To facilitate comparison with the MacQueen/Szamboti data, I converted Chandler's heights to distance fallen, but left the data in meters. (The MacQueen/Szamboti data are in feet.) I set the time origin to the (approximate) beginning of the collapse.
Here is a graph of Chandler's data, on which I have overlain three different reconstructions of the signal:
All three reconstructions match Chandler's data and each other so well that you can't see the tiny differences between them in that graph. The differences will become more visible when we differentiate the reconstructed signals (to obtain their instantaneous velocities), and will become obvious when we differentiate a second time (to obtain their instantaneous accelerations). Had Chandler, MacQueen, and Szamboti understood that tiny differences in a position signal often correspond to large differences in acceleration, they might have been more careful when drawing conclusions from their sampled data.
The reconstruction labelled "degree 0" corresponds to a (piecewise constant) step acceleration that is neither continuous nor differentiable at the sampled times. The reconstructions labelled "degree 2" and "degree 10" correspond to piecewise polynomial accelerations of the form
a(t) = g - c [(h/2)
2 - (t - m)
2]
n
where g is the acceleration of gravity, h is the width of each interval, m is the midpoint of an interval, n=1 or n=5 is one half of the polynomial's degree, and c is the interval-specific constant that matches the acceleration to Chandler's data. These piecewise polynomial accelerations are continuous, and are differentiable even at the endpoints if n>1. In addition, the downward acceleration is limited to 1g; without that limit, noise in the data would lead to brief downward accelerations of greater than 1g, which is physically impossible. Using the raw data and the information in this paragraph, it is a (mildly tedious) exercise in freshman calculus to reproduce every graph in this post.
Differentiation of the three reconstructed position signals is equivalent to integration of the accelerations described above. Both processes yield the following instantaneous velocities:
The reconstructions of degree 2 and 10 imply actual decelerations near 0.5, 1.1, 1.9, 2.7, and 3.1 seconds. The reconstruction of degree 0 does not involve actual decelerations, but comes close to a deceleration at those five times, and comes very close at 0.5 and 3.1 seconds. Here is a graph of the accelerations that (when integrated) yield the velocity and position signals shown in the previous graphs:
Before t=0, the roof was basically stationary, with some small shaking. The stepwise acceleration is approximately zero for t<0, and that is the most plausible reconstruction at that time. At or around t=0, something gave way and the roof entered free fall (9.8 meters per second squared) for 200+ milliseconds. That free fall ended sometime between 200 and 400 milliseconds; from the sampled position data, it is impossible to say whether the free fall ended with resistance that kept the acceleration between 0g and 1g (as illustrated by the step function) or with a series of much larger and briefer jolts (as illustrated by the curves for degree 2 and 10).
Consider, however, the interval from 3.0 to 3.2 seconds. The area under the acceleration curve within that integral cannot be changed without damaging the fit to Chandler's data. It is very unlikely that the acceleration that actually occurred during that interval corresponds to a large step whose sides just happen to match up perfectly with the endpoints of that interval. It is far more plausible that the acceleration during that interval is more accurately modelled by the curves for degree 2 and 10. Both of those curves imply actual decelerations during that interval, as do most other plausible reconstructions for that interval.
Similarly, most plausible reconstructions for the signal near 0.5, 1.1, 1.9, and 2.7 seconds involve actual decelerations.
By now it should be obvious that no competent scientist would ever attempt to argue that Chandler's data are inconsistent with decelerations.
What about the MacQueen/Chandler data? Here are the accelerations calculated from the raw data contained within the current (7th?!!!) version of their "Missing Jolt" paper:
Even the stepwise (degree 0) model of acceleration implies actual decelerations near 0.5, 1.75, and 3.1 seconds. It's pretty hard to come up with a continuous acceleration function that fits the MacQueen/Szamboti data but does not involve decelerations.
For the corresponding velocity and position functions reconstructed from the (current) MacQueen/Szamboti data, see:
http://www.cesura17.net/~will/Ephemera/Sept11/Szamboti/szambotiV.jpg
http://www.cesura17.net/~will/Ephemera/Sept11/Szamboti/szambotiY.jpg
Comparing the accelerations reconstructed from Chandler's data to the accelerations reconstructed from the MacQueen/Szamboti data, some similarities are obvious but the differences are obvious also. Some of those differences may be attributable to the use of Tracker versus hand tracking, but another important difference is that Chandler and MacQueen/Szamboti tracked the descent of different roof features. Not every feature on the roof descended at exactly the same rate at every time.
From that, it follows that we should be cautious about drawing conclusions from any one set of sampled data; another set of data might not support our conclusions. In particular, we should be wary of arguments that use roof data to draw conclusions about the zone of impact. The upper section was not perfectly rigid, so accelerations reconstructed from roof data are likely to be less severe than the jolts occurring several floors below.
To summarize:
- The Chandler-MacQueen-Szamboti fallacy is built upon failure to understand the fundamental theorem of sampling.
- Most plausible reconstructions of the raw data published by Chandler and by MacQueen/Szamboti involve actual decelerations.
- No competent scientist would argue that the sampled data rule out decelerations.