Who has the burden of proof- the conspiracy theorist, or the debunker?

:rolleyes:

For "no real planes" to be true, every single one of these clips need to be disproven.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mc2tfVuaSrg

So where's the burden of proof? Your implied claim, that misleading analysis of one or two clips is valid, or my implied claim, that 26 different shots from all possible angles at distances from 1 block to 5 miles show an actual plane?


No planers have dozens of things they need to prove. Their conspiracy theory is about the most ridiculopus Ive ever heard..The really crazy Truthers are drawn to that one...
It's interesting the ease with which they can wave away the people who were on the planes and their families mouring for their deaths. One no planer on this board insisted nobody saw planes hit the WTC, the footage was all fake, the wreckage was all planted, the mourning families either didn't exist, or were paid actors. His evidence? Nada....
 
Both equally.

Is this a repponse to my origianl topic question?
Can you elaborate a bit?


So if a Truther claims '9/11 was an inside job' would they be justified to say to critics 'prove that it wasn't an inside job'


Traditionally, the one making the positive claim needs to supply the evidence/proof to back up the claim

Birthers are now going around insisting Barack Obama's birth certificate is a fake. I asked a few Birthers I know can they prove it's a fake.
They responded 'Can you prove it isn't a fake'? They made the positive claim, they need to back up the claim- I don't think I have the burden prove a negative.
 
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:rolleyes:

For "no real planes" to be true, every single one of these clips need to be disproven.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mc2tfVuaSrg

So where's the burden of proof? Your implied claim, that misleading analysis of one or two clips is valid, or my implied claim, that 26 different shots from all possible angles at distances from 1 block to 5 miles show an actual plane?

Not as a definite proof, but as a question: No single high quality video shot of the SECOND plane?!

Here is a high quality clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRrTynLHcQQ

Compare with: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mc2tfVuaSrg
 
Not as a definite proof, but as a question: No single high quality video shot of the SECOND plane?!

Here is a high quality clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRrTynLHcQQ

Compare with: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mc2tfVuaSrg


Are you a No-planer?

The 2nd plane was tracked by radar, was witnessed by thousands of people, was caught on video and aired live, the passengers/crew on the plane made phone calls, and wreckage from the plane & body parts and personal effects were recovered at the site.

Using your logic, one might as well ask since the footage of JFK and Jackie Kennedy in the limo in the Zapruder film is hazy- how do we know it's really them?
Eye witnesses were everywhere..

The 4 planes were deliberatly crashed on 9/11, killing all on board.
That is fact

The No planer fringe of 9/11 Trutheism gets nowhere fast, because to prove their claim, they would need to establish how the alternative scenario they envisoned actually happened took place, and they need to explain the eye witnesses and people on the planes. Wishing them away into the cornfield doesn't work..No Planers insist that the plane wreckage was planted. Can they prove this?
 
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Are you a No-planer?

The 2nd plane was tracked by radar, was witnessed by thousands of people, was caught on video and aired live, the passengers/crew on the plane made phone calls, and wreckage from the plane & body parts and personal effects were recovered at the site.

Using your logic, one might as well ask since the footage of JFK and Jackie Kennedy in the limo in the Zapruder film is hazy- how do we know it's really them?
Eye witnesses were everywhere..

The 4 planes were deliberatly crashed on 9/11, killing all on board.
That is fact

The No planer fringe of 9/11 Trutheism gets nowhere fast, because to prove their claim, they would need to establish how the alternative scenario they envisoned actually happened took place, and they need to explain the eye witnesses and people on the planes. Wishing them away into the cornfield doesn't work..

I found some strange things in the reported radar data. And how many radar stations have in fact produced any recorded radar data of the alleged second plane? Thousands of witnesses? I doubt it. The phone calls have been shown to be possibly fakes. Wreckage parts suspiciously looking as having been planted.
 
Is this a repponse to my origianl topic question?
Can you elaborate a bit?

Traditionally, the one making the positive claim needs to supply the evidence/proof to back up the claim

Birthers are now going around insisting Barack Obama's birth certificate is a fake. I asked a few Birthers I know can they prove it's a fake.
They responded 'Can you prove it isn't a fake'? They made the positive claim, they need to back up the claim- I don't think I have the burden prove a negative.

There are two types of arguments being confused. In the case of an argument arguing in favor of the existence of something, (God, for example) saying "Prove that God doesn't exist," is, as you say, a fallacy because you cannot prove a negative, which is the default position.

Arguing in favor of an interpretation of a world event, however, does not have a default negative and requires hard or circumstantial evidence in favor of the argument. Whichever argument offers the most convincing such evidence wins. Non-conspiracy explanations cannot be the default position (nor can conspiracy explanations) as you seem to be implying. The issue is entirely different from ontological arguments where there is a default position. Either position requires evidence to persuade away from the agnostic middle of "I don't know."

So if a Truther claims '9/11 was an inside job' would they be justified to say to critics 'prove that it wasn't an inside job'

The verity, as well as interpretation of the meaning of this claim, depends on whether the "Truther" offered any evidence in favor of his position earlier. If the truther did offer evidence, then the "Truther" is merely, and rightly, calling for the opponent to back his alternative claim with evidence. It is a roundabout and confusing negative way of saying "provide evidence for your own claim."

If the "Truther" has not offered evidence previously, then it seems to me to be an incorrectly used fallacy (in terms of context), which is a strange concept.
 
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I found some strange things in the reported radar data. And how many radar stations have in fact produced any recorded radar data of the alleged second plane? Thousands of witnesses? I doubt it. The phone calls have been shown to be possibly fakes. Wreckage parts suspiciously looking as having been planted.


You offer opinons, but no evidence.

Are you seriously doubting there were thousands of witnesses?
You have offered no evidence, you just choose not to believe there were witnesses. Have you ever been to NYC? Are you aware how crowded the streets can be, even in the early morning hours? Eye witness accounts and photos show the streets filled with thousands of people- and not just in Manhatten, people on the NJ side had their eyes on the Twin towers, particularly when the first tower was in flames...That is why so many people saw the 2nd plane hit...

You suggest the phone calls have been 'shown' to be possible fakes?
What you offer is an opinion, not evidence.

You suggest 'Wreckage parts suspiciously looking as having been planted'

How so? Again, that is your opinion, not evidence.
The facts do not support any of your conclusions

This is a constant trap you Truthers set for yourselves- you start off with these outlandish theories, but with NOTHING to back them up...
 
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I found some strange things in the reported radar data. And how many radar stations have in fact produced any recorded radar data of the alleged second plane? Thousands of witnesses? I doubt it. The phone calls have been shown to be possibly fakes. Wreckage parts suspiciously looking as having been planted.

How so?
 
The conversation is drifting dangerously off-topic. The OP question is "burden of proof, CT or debunker?" The "No Planes" issue is not the topic, it a "f'rinstance" only, please.


Corbin answered my question, and the OP question, correctly. "Both."

It's a kinda loaded question, really, and doesn't take into account all possible types of CT claim or debunking response -- it' a "how long is a piece of string" question. But to be logically rigorous, ALL claims on a topic, from all directions, need to be verifiable or at least testable.

Then we get into the realm of what makes sense, is provable or disprovable, or at least testable. Can we test the claim that the "all known footage" youtube clip contains airplanes? Can we test the possibility that ALL 26 clips have been faked? Can we prove or disprove the claim than an aluminum airframe would decelerate while being shoved through a cheese-grater at 500mph? Some of this is mathematical, and some of it can be measured with the ruler of common sense or regular experience.
 
There are two types of arguments being confused. In the case of an argument arguing in favor of the existence of something, (God, for example) saying "Prove that God doesn't exist," is, as you say, a fallacy because you cannot prove a negative, which is the default position.

Arguing in favor of an interpretation of a world event, however, does not have a default negative and requires hard or circumstantial evidence in favor of the argument. Whichever argument offers the most convincing such evidence wins. Non-conspiracy explanations cannot be the default position (nor can conspiracy explanations) as you seem to be implying. The issue is entirely different from ontological arguments where there is a default position. Either position requires evidence to persuade away from the agnostic middle of "I don't know."

The verity, as well as interpretation of the meaning of this claim, depends on whether the "Truther" offered any evidence in favor of his position earlier. If the truther did offer evidence, then the "Truther" is merely, and rightly, calling for the opponent to back his alternative claim with evidence. It is a roundabout and confusing negative way of saying "provide evidence for your own claim."

If the "Truther" has not offered evidence previously, then it seems to me to be an incorrectly used fallacy (in terms of context), which is a strange concept.

World events quickly attract journalistic coverage, investigations, non-fiction writers and historians. In the case of 9/11, we very quickly had the 9/11 Commission and numerous independent journalistic accounts written up as books; not long after we had two NIST reports. These sources and others can easily be combined into encyclopedia entries and other accounts which are widely consulted by people who quickly want to know what happened, eg on Wikipedia, where the pages almost always cite the sources they base their account on.

Thus as time goes on a position of agnosticism about whether something happened a particular way becomes utterly impossible. There is an existing account which will not be reducible to a single source or single provenance.

Someone challenged to 'prove' that 9/11 happened the way non-Truthers think it happened can simply send Truthers to the library and ask that they digest the relevant source material.

Therefore, when considering events which are now a matter of history, even if they're relatively recent history, non-conspiracy explanations are indeed the default position, and a conspiracy claim has the exclusive burden of proof to deal with ALL of the relevant evidence which must be explained away in order for the story to change.

This is why conspiracy theorists traditionally try to dismiss and handwave away major investigations or studies of the events in question as 'whitewashes' (Warren Commission, 9/11 Commission) or 'show trials' (Nuremberg) or accuse non-conspiracy theorists of conforming slavishly to an alleged dogma established by a particular institition, eg Truthers attacking "NISTians".

It's also why conspiracy theorists love to pretend that none of the previous investigations happened and that the event must be proven literally from scratch all over again, since that way they can shift the burden of proof away from them, instead of proving their own claims.
 
Corbin answered my question, and the OP question, correctly. "Both."

.



Not always.
Take for example the 'No planer' who insists plane wreckage was planted.

They have zero evidence to back their claim, only an opinion.
They can't say to the debunker 'prove the wreckage wasn't planted'.
Opinion is not evidence.
And it's not really the burden of those who reject the no planer claim to dismantle each of their assertions- the No Planer discredits themselves t, by not backing up their claim with any proof or evidence.
This can be applied to many of the different sub consspiracy theories within the Truther cult, Birther cult, or deather cult
 
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World events quickly attract journalistic coverage, investigations, non-fiction writers and historians. In the case of 9/11, we very quickly had the 9/11 Commission and numerous independent journalistic accounts written up as books; not long after we had two NIST reports. These sources and others can easily be combined into encyclopedia entries and other accounts which are widely consulted by people who quickly want to know what happened, eg on Wikipedia, where the pages almost always cite the sources they base their account on.

Thus as time goes on a position of agnosticism about whether something happened a particular way becomes utterly impossible. There is an existing account which will not be reducible to a single source or single provenance.

This initial official account should still be subject to scrutiny. If you are swayed from the position of agnosticism merely because this side of the argument comes first or from official sources, then I suggest you re-evaluate your logic. Getting to the evidence first or through mainstream sources does not magically confer validity. The event which the evidence regards still exists as the point in history from which both sides draw their arguments. The mere accident that official sources are more mainstream and thus disseminate their information first does not make them more valid. In my opinion, you are assuming the consequent. Both sides are on equal footing from the time of the event, regardless of the media capabilities of one side.

The fact remains that, if we are to remain unbiased, these sources CANNOT be taken at face value and automatically accepted as you claim. Evidence for both sides must be considered. There is nothing intrinsically special about one side of the evidence, as you seem to be implying.

Someone challenged to 'prove' that 9/11 happened the way non-Truthers think it happened can simply send Truthers to the library and ask that they digest the relevant source material.

Therefore, when considering events which are now a matter of history, even if they're relatively recent history, non-conspiracy explanations are indeed the default position...

Again, accessibility does not confer validity. The other side of the argument can very well exist but not be published or even written down. You are essentially assuming that one side is necessarily true and that the other side cannot be.

...and a conspiracy claim has the exclusive burden of proof to deal with ALL of the relevant evidence which must be explained away in order for the story to change.

Correct, but as does the other side.

Nick, please state concisely why you believe that non-conspiracy explanations are to be accepted on default, without even considering any evidence. You will probably object to my challenge and say that evidence IS being considered, but that's not the case. You are asking us to make a predetermined conclusion based on something other than the contents of the evidence itself.
 
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Here is a clip from the local access Austin TX tv show 'The Atheist Experience'- the atheist panel debates a Truther who calls in- around 4:50 the host makes a great point how the Truther uses 'An absense of evidence to support your suspicion' (also great points at 6:47). I think this is a flawed approach conspiracy theorists make time and time again.

http://youtu.be/uJBLQVbU7As
 
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Again, accessibility does not confer validity. The other side of the argument can very well exist but not be published or even written down. You are essentially assuming that one side is necessarily true and that the other side cannot be.
The standard conspiracy theory requires hundreds, if not thousands of people to somehow be complicit in the murder of thousands. It is technically possible, but the odds are astronomically small. The official story is much simpler, and therefore much less likely to break down, and much more plausible.

Sorry, brah, but the OS is the default. The burden's on the Truthers.
 
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The standard conspiracy theory requires hundreds, if not thousands of people to somehow be complicit in the murder of thousands. It is technically possible, but the odds are astronomically small. The official story is much simpler, and therefore much less likely to break down, and much more plausible.

Sorry, brah, but the OS is the default. The burden's on the Truthers.

That is a specific piece of circumstantial evidence on one side of the argument. It may very well be true, but it isn't relevant to our discussion about the burden of proof.

You cannot assume pieces of evidence and then use those pieces to confer argumentative validity upon your position in a discussion that is dealing with default positions before evidence considered, lol. This whole discussion is about whether one side of the argument has a default advantage (by nature of its claim) before any evidence can even be considered.

The fact is that neither side of the argument has an advantage because they are both making exactly the same type of claim.
 
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That is a specific piece of circumstantial evidence on one side of the argument.
No, it's direct evidence, not circumstantial.

You cannot assume pieces of evidence and then use those pieces to confer argumentative validity upon your position before the evidence has even been considered, lol.
The evidence has been considered. By a ton of people around the world, including many of the people on this forum.

Keep trying that intellectual loquacious soft-shoe, though.
 
No, it's direct evidence, not circumstantial.

I disagree, but my point stands no matter what the TYPE of evidence. You shouldn't bring up a specific piece of evidence in a discussion that seeks to determine the burden of proof because it is utterly irrelevant.

The evidence has been considered. By a ton of people around the world, including many of the people on this forum.

Now you're even more off-topic.

Keep trying that intellectual loquacious soft-shoe, though.

Its better that you stay out of this discussion since you keep bringing up irrelevant points. The point of this thread is not to discuss evidence for or against conspiracy theories.

And thanks.
 
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This initial official account should still be subject to scrutiny. If you are swayed from the position of agnosticism merely because this side of the argument comes first or from official sources, then I suggest you re-evaluate your logic. .

I said nothing about official sources. I actually stated that existing accounts "will not be reducible to a single source or single provenance."
In the case of an event like 9/11, independent unaffiliated university professors have contributed to the existing account alongside independent journalists.

Getting to the evidence first or through mainstream sources does not magically confer validity.

You're unsurprisingly completely misunderstanding the point. An event happens, it leaves evidence of itself, and is comprehended by being cast into a coherent narrative or explanation. As soon as there is a coherent narrative then any subsequent discussion MUST take this narrative into consideration, and it MUST consider the evidence on which the narrative is based. Period.

The event which the evidence regards still exists as the point in history from which both sides draw their arguments.

No. The argument is actually about what the event is.

In the case of 9/11 it was crystal clear to many observers exactly what had happened because they were watching it on live TV and could follow the sequence of events very clearly. Planes hit towers, start fires, buildings collapse. Within a fairly short space of time, there was perfectly good evidence that the planes had been hijacked and it did not take long to work out who the hijackers were, using a great many pieces of information.

Every single piece of information which contributed to that initial conclusion, that the twin towers were struck by planes that had been hijacked by terrorists, must be taken into account by anyone trying to advance an alternative explanation.

And every single piece of information which confirms that conclusion as time goes on and more research or investigative work is done, must also be taken into account.

The mere accident that official sources are more mainstream and thus disseminate their information first does not make them more valid.

No. Evidence is evidence, period.

In my opinion, you are assuming the consequent. Both sides are on equal footing from the time of the event, regardless of the media capabilities of one side.

No they're not on an equal footing. Our society and civilisation has determined over many centuries that there are numerous investigative mechanisms which carry weight and authority because they have been found to be generally reliable over the course of time.

Most of those investigative mechanisms went to work after 9/11, including
- the police
- relevant forensic consultants called in by the police
- the court system (KSM's trial)
- commissions of inquiry organised by representative bodies
- scientists in universities
- scientists working for relevant government agencies
- journalists writing books
- eventually, historians

The fruits of these investigations MUST be considered as and when they become available. That actually means that over time, a conspiracy theory explanation is on less and less of an equal footing.

CTs are arguably only on an equal footing for about 0.5 seconds after the event happens on live TV, before a reporter opens their mouth to start explaining what is going on.

The fact remains that, if we are to remain unbiased, these sources CANNOT be taken at face value and automatically accepted as you claim.

I said nothing about taking sources at face value or automatically accepting them. I simply said that ALL evidence and ALL sources, as well as ALL explanations and narratives, have to be considered when arriving at a fresh explanation.

This places a huge burden on researchers, but that is relatively normal. Not for nothing do scientists, historians etc begin their papers with a literature review.

Unsurprisingly, most conspiracy theorists think they can shirk this burden, and ignore massive swathes of evidence which is already 'in play'.

Evidence for both sides must be considered.

Conspiracy theorists almost never generate any evidence of their own. They are typically selectively parasitic.

There is nothing intrinsically special about one side of the evidence, as you seem to be implying.

But there are not 'two sides to the evidence'. There is simply the evidence, and then there are the explanations of the evidence. Not only must all the evidence be considered, but so too must all previous explanations and narratives.

If I want to say anything meaningful about 9/11 in 2011 then I have 10 years worth of material to read through. Unless I read through a hell of a lot of it, then nothing I might say carries any weight or significance, because the chances are very good that I will have ignored something quite critical.

Again, accessibility does not confer validity. The other side of the argument can very well exist but not be published or even written down. You are essentially assuming that one side is necessarily true and that the other side cannot be.

I'm assuming nothing. I am explaining the facts of life about where the starting line is.

Correct, but as does the other side.

But only if you want to revise the story. If I was writing a formal explanation of 9/11 today in 2011 then I absolutely must consider all the relevant materials produced about the event in the last ten years. Relevance is determined by field. If I am a scientist then I will cite from peer reviewed articles and monographs and from studies produced by qualified scientists. I am not obliged to consider un-peer reviewed YouTube videos.

If I am reasonably satisfied that previous explanations are valid then I need only refer to them and cite them. And thus can send conspiracy theorist opponents to the library, or Google, and only listen to them if they display comprehension of the sources and do not strawman what the existing explanation is.

If the conspiracy theorist then displays some comprehension of the previous accounts and the sources, then there's a genuine debate. Not before.

Nick, please state concisely why you believe that non-conspiracy explanations are to be accepted on default, without even considering any evidence.

Once again I said nothing about accepting non-conspiracy explanations on default. I simply stated that all evidence and all previous explanations must be taken into consideration.

You will probably object to my challenge and say that evidence IS being considered, but that's not the case.

You still don't get it. If I want to find out about an event then I will go to what are the most reputable and reliable sources I can find. As I said above, society has long determined that certain mechanisms produce sources and accounts that are generally reliable. I will look for a comprehensive, lengthy book that is obviously coherent and uses as much evidence as possible. I will look for scientific papers. I will look for publications of investigative sources or the deliberations of investigative commissions, because such sources are going to be important starting points as I research the event in question.

As time goes on, more and more such accounts are produced and they are more and more reliable because the inevitable errors that affect every investigation or study are identified, critiqued and weeded out.

You are asking us to make a predetermined conclusion based on something other than the contents of the evidence itself

No I'm not. I was simply pointing out that the playing field is not level. Someone in 2011 who wants to claim that 9/11 happened differently had better be very, very familiar with as much of the source material and as many of the narrative accounts as possible.

It's even worse for Moon Hoaxers, of course. And absolutely terrible for Holocaust deniers.
 
OK, here it is in a nutshell:

The 'classic' conspiracy theorist obsessed by meta-conspiracies, 9/11, JFK, the moon landing etc is almost always in the same position as an appeals court defense lawyer. They have to produce new evidence in order to show there are grounds for appeal, otherwise the verdict stands. At the appeals stage, the burden of proof is unsurprisingly on the defense and no longer on the prosecution.

The 'verdict' which is being appealed need not be a formal legal verdict, but it will consist of a variety of conclusions that have been reached through appropriate channels and mechanisms.

It's different with the Alex Jones style instant conspiracy theorist. These days an event happens and there is a conspiracy claim within hours if not minutes of the event happening. The CT gets their claim in early. So then they're like public defenders, except usually grossly incompetent, and their 'clients' don't want them, so they get 'fired' and ignored.

However, as hours stretch into days, weeks, months and years, then the 'court' produces a series of 'verdicts' which the would be public defender has to take into consideration. So the instant-conspiracy claim eventually is confronted by the exact same situation as the 'classic' conspiracy theorist.

None of this precludes the possibility of winning an appeal, after all the Birmingham Six's verdicts were overturned and sentences quashed through hard legal work and the production of new evidence (or rather, production of new information about the evidence).
 
Does anybody actually understand what this dude's point actually is? As far as I can tell this reply post is just a bunch of true stuff that nobody disagreed with combined with this weird special pleading that one side of an argument by virtue of being a "narrative" avoids the burden of proof.

Please explain to me by what trickery one side of an argument magically avoids the burden of proof.

Nearly the only case in which the burden of proof is legitimately avoided is in ontological arguments, in which the existence of something is being debated.


I said nothing about official sources. I actually stated that existing accounts "will not be reducible to a single source or single provenance."
In the case of an event like 9/11, independent unaffiliated university professors have contributed to the existing account alongside independent journalists.

Okay? Thanks for the information? I'll use it next time the topic is about something totally different.

You're unsurprisingly completely misunderstanding the point. An event happens, it leaves evidence of itself, and is comprehended by being cast into a coherent narrative or explanation. As soon as there is a coherent narrative then any subsequent discussion MUST take this narrative into consideration, and it MUST consider the evidence on which the narrative is based. Period.

I think this is the closest we've gotten to seeing your actual argument.

First, saying that the narrative is "coherent" is a premature conclusion because you must examine the contents, the evidence of the narrative before you can deem it "coherent."

The narrative is merely the interpretation/conclusion part of one side of the argument, with evidence thrown in to tie it all together.

As such, your exhortation that the other side must consider the narrative is blatantly obvious. OF COURSE you must consider the other side and possibly provide counter-arguments. Nobody said otherwise. Indeed, both sides must provide evidence. The fact that one side's evidence is in the form of a narrative and widely accepted does not confer validity.



No. The argument is actually about what the event is

In the case of 9/11 it was crystal clear to many observers exactly what had happened because they were watching it on live TV and could follow the sequence of events very clearly. Planes hit towers, start fires, buildings collapse. Within a fairly short space of time, there was perfectly good evidence that the planes had been hijacked and it did not take long to work out who the hijackers were, using a great many pieces of information.

Every single piece of information which contributed to that initial conclusion, that the twin towers were struck by planes that had been hijacked by terrorists, must be taken into account by anyone trying to advance an alternative explanation.

And every single piece of information which confirms that conclusion as time goes on and more research or investigative work is done, must also be taken into account.

Right. All of this evidence for one side must be taken into consideration (and refuted) by the other side.

Ergo, rational debate, 600BC.

No. Evidence is evidence, period.

I think this illustrates your inability to think of this discussion in terms of being in an agnostic middle before the argument starts. I split the argument into two parts because that's how debate works. For you, there is only true evidence for your position, not removing yourself from the conclusion of the argument.

No they're not on an equal footing. Our society and civilisation has determined over many centuries that there are numerous investigative mechanisms which carry weight and authority because they have been found to be generally reliable over the course of time.

Most of those investigative mechanisms went to work after 9/11, including
- the police
- relevant forensic consultants called in by the police
- the court system (KSM's trial)
- commissions of inquiry organised by representative bodies
- scientists in universities
- scientists working for relevant government agencies
- journalists writing books
- eventually, historians

The fruits of these investigations MUST be considered as and when they become available. That actually means that over time, a conspiracy theory explanation is on less and less of an equal footing.

CTs are arguably only on an equal footing for about 0.5 seconds after the event happens on live TV, before a reporter opens their mouth to start explaining what is going on.

This is a specific argument for the credibility of the sources used on one side of the argument and has nothing to do with the burden of proof because burden of proof isn't determined by specific pieces of evidence. See above posts for further explanation.



I said nothing about taking sources at face value or automatically accepting them. I simply said that ALL evidence and ALL sources, as well as ALL explanations and narratives, have to be considered when arriving at a fresh explanation.

Right, I never said otherwise. I think the fact that you are constantly stating obvious things nobody has disagreed is telling.

This places a huge burden on researchers, but that is relatively normal. Not for nothing do scientists, historians etc begin their papers with a literature review.

Unsurprisingly, most conspiracy theorists think they can shirk this burden, and ignore massive swathes of evidence which is already 'in play'.

Okay? Fortunately for me, I'm not arguing that conspiracy theorists don't have to provide evidence for their claims.

Conspiracy theorists almost never generate any evidence of their own. They are typically selectively parasitic.

See above.



But there are not 'two sides to the evidence'. There is simply the evidence, and then there are the explanations of the evidence. Not only must all the evidence be considered, but so too must all previous explanations and narratives.

You know exactly what I meant by two sides to the evidence. I used it in the context of an argument.




You still don't get it. If I want to find out about an event then I will go to what are the most reputable and reliable sources I can find. As I said above, society has long determined that certain mechanisms produce sources and accounts that are generally reliable. I will look for a comprehensive, lengthy book that is obviously coherent and uses as much evidence as possible. I will look for scientific papers. I will look for publications of investigative sources or the deliberations of investigative commissions, because such sources are going to be important starting points as I research the event in question.

As time goes on, more and more such accounts are produced and they are more and more reliable because the inevitable errors that affect every investigation or study are identified, critiqued and weeded out.

Thanks for the exposition on what makes a source credible. Unfortunately, that's not what this debate is about.

No I'm not. I was simply pointing out that the playing field is not level. Someone in 2011 who wants to claim that 9/11 happened differently had better be very, very familiar with as much of the source material and as many of the narrative accounts as possible.

It's even worse for Moon Hoaxers, of course. And absolutely terrible for Holocaust deniers.

Again, what is your argument?

The existence of one side of the argument's evidence in a readily available and widely accepted format does not mean that that side does not have a burden of proof. Both sides have the burden of proof.
 
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OK, here it is in a nutshell:

The 'classic' conspiracy theorist obsessed by meta-conspiracies, 9/11, JFK, the moon landing etc is almost always in the same position as an appeals court defense lawyer. They have to produce new evidence in order to show there are grounds for appeal, otherwise the verdict stands. At the appeals stage, the burden of proof is unsurprisingly on the defense and no longer on the prosecution.

The 'verdict' which is being appealed need not be a formal legal verdict, but it will consist of a variety of conclusions that have been reached through appropriate channels and mechanisms.

This assumes that one side of the argument (the non-conspiracy side) was already shown to be correct!

Unbelievable.

Our discussion is about WHICH SIDE MUST PROVIDE EVIDENCE. This is an discussion that comes BEFORE you EXAMINE the evidence. You can't examine the evidence for one side, determine it to be correct, and then claim the other side has the burden of proof because your argument is already presented. This discussion has nothing to do with whether or not either sides' evidence is correct. You are making an a priori justification and then pretending you didn't.

Now its clear why your point is so difficult to concisely state - it is a textbook fallacy.
 
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This assumes that one side of the argument (the non-conspiracy side) was already shown to be correct!
No, it assumes said side has already been supported, and acknowledges that long-held, supported arguments can still be proven wrong, even citing a famous legal case.

Unbelievable.
That you keep missing the point? Indeed it is!

Our discussion is about WHICH SIDE MUST PROVIDE EVIDENCE. This is an discussion that comes BEFORE you EXAMINE the evidence.
Hold it. You're talking about determining the burden of proof without looking at the evidence? What are these arguments formed on, exactly?

You can't examine the evidence for one side,
Nick didn't say that. He said the entire body of evidence. Not for one "side" or another. All of it.

determine it to be correct, and then claim the other side has the burden of proof because your argument is already presented. You are making an a priori justification and then pretending you didn't.
Wait, so both sides have to present simultaneously? Is this rock-paper-scissors?

Now its clear why your point is so difficult to concisely state - it is a textbook fallacy.
Unsupported correlation. Also, somewhat hypocritical.
 
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*facepalm*

And yes, burden of proof determination comes before judging evidence.

In fact, its not a difficult or widely disputed determination. Only on Randi forums would I get into such a strange argument about an issue that is typically widely acknowledged.

Here's one cool way you can tell that the non CT side has the burden of proof as much as the CT side. There is tons and tons of evidence offered on the non-CT side.
 
The existence of one side of the argument's evidence in a readily available and widely accepted format does not mean that that side does not have a burden of proof. Both sides have the burden of proof.

I'm going to cut to what I think is the chase here.

The existence of evidence summarised in whatever recognised form one is speaking of means that if one side accepts the conclusion reached in that summary/report/book/whatever, they have met their burden of proof. They can simply refer to the summary/report/book/whatever.

They are not obliged to reproduce the entire contents of the summary/report/book/whatever, they do not have to reinvent the wheel, and they do not have to prove the obvious.

The claim for example that 19 Al-Qaeda terrorists took over 4 planes on 9/11 is written up in the 9/11 Commission report. It's also written up in publicly available FBI files, and in multiple accounts by investigative journalists. Here are the titles cited on the relevant Wikipedia page:

  • James Bamford (2008). Shadow Factory. Doubleday.
  • "9/11 Commission Report" (PDF). National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States. 2004. Retrieved 2008-09-30.
  • "Appendix" (PDF). 9/11 and Terror Travel. National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States. 2004. Retrieved 2008-09-30.
  • Aust, Stefan; Der Spiegel Magazine (2002). Inside 9-11: What Really Happened. Schnibben, Cordt. MacMillan. ISBN 031298748X.
  • Burke, Jason (2004). Al-Qaeda: The True Story of Radical Islam. I.B. Tauris. ISBN 1850436665.
  • Federal Bureau of Investigation (2008-02-04). "Hijackers' Timeline" (PDF). NEFA Foundation. Retrieved 2008-10-06.
  • Fouda, Yosri; Fielding, Nick (2003). Masterminds of Terror: The Truth Behind the Most Devastating Terrorist Attack the World Has Ever Seen. Arcade. ISBN 1559707089.
  • McDermott, Terry (2005). Perfect Soldiers: The Hijackers: Who They Were, Why They Did It. HarperCollins. ISBN 0060584696.
  • Smith, Paul J. (2005). Terrorism and Violence in Southeast Asia: Transnational Challenges to States and Regional Stability. M.E. Sharpe. ISBN 0765614332.
  • Wright, Lawrence (2006). The Looming Tower: Al Qaeda and the Road to 9/11. Alfred A. Knopf. ISBN 037541486X.
To which can be added two further titles about the 9/11 Commission, one written by two commissioners, one written by an outsider:

  • Without Precedent: The Inside Story of the 9/11 Commission, by Thomas H Kean and Lee H. Hamilton (Random House, August 2006) ISBN 0-307-26377-0
  • The Commission: The Uncensored History of the 9/11 Investigation, by Philip Shenon (the Twelve - Jan. 2008), ISBN 978-0-446-58075-5

These works cite many pieces of evidence which supported the conclusion that 19 Al-Qaida terrorists hijacked 4 planes on 9/11.

The burden of proof has now been met.
Evidence has been marshalled, analysed and digested which supports this particular conclusion. Anyone who asks 'who were the hijackers?' can look them up on Wikipedia and be referred instantly to the above titles. The sources on which these books are based are also widely available, eg the NTSB transcripts can be found here.

A 'classic' conspiracy theorist arrives on the scene after the burden of proof to make a case for a particular conclusion has been met. They have an away-game disadvantage. They must explain away all the evidence leading to the commonly accepted consensus conclusion.

Therefore, conspiracy theorists have the burden of proof to provide a convincing alternative explanation. They are the ones selling a particular line, and non-conspiracy theorists are the judges and jury that have to be persuaded.

This is purely a function of the starting vantage points and the existence of an already formed consensus. Whoever is in the minority has to go to bat first and has to stump up new evidence to overturn the existing consensus.

It's different in a formal debate. In a formal debate then both sides agree ground-rules and decide on a proposition which will be defended for and against. Under those circumstances, then the pro-side in a debate absolutely has the burden of proof to reprove something that could well already be a matter of overwhelming societal and intellectual consensus.
 
*facepalm*

And yes, burden of proof determination comes before judging evidence
You look at all the evidence before creating your argument. Once your argument is formed, then you begin debating burden of proof with people supporting opposing arguments.

Say, I seem to recall several other points in my post.

Here's one cool way you can tell that the non CT side has the burden of proof as much as the CT side. There is tons and tons of evidence offered on the non-CT side.
I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here, sardonic or otherwise. Because side X has a lot of evidence, that means their BoP is the same as the CT side? There seems to be some logic missing between your premise and your conclusion.
 
Lets take a look at the Birther conspiracy-

They claim Pres Obama was not born in the US, but rather in Kenya. What evidence do they offer? They often cite interview that was taken out of context with his grandmother suggesting he was born in Kenya- she in fact never said that, that was manipulation by the Birthers.


Birthers insist the longform Birth certificate and copy recently released are fakes.

They make this assertion with no evidence-just poppycock Youtube videos. I've encountered several Birthers who haven't even looked at the birth certificate, and dismissed it as a fake.

The burden is on the Birther to back their claim- The birth certificate is recognized by the state of Hawaii as 100% genuine, ditto with the Federal government, so it's real.

Birthers assert that the burden is on Obama to prove it's not a fake. Does anyone think the Birthers can assert others must prove a negative?

The 'Deathers', the ones who insist that the Osama Bin Laden death story is a hoax don't seem to have any evidence to back their conspiracy views- and are out insisting Pres Obama or government officails need to prove the story is NOT a hoax.
I'd say the burden is on the Deathers to back their conspiracy claims...
What do you all think?
 
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This assumes that one side of the argument (the non-conspiracy side) was already shown to be correct!

Of course it does. If there's an existing explanation then somebody decided this was what happened and advanced evidence to support tis conclusion. A court, a police investigative team, a panel of experts, academics, journalists, whoever. Often all of them.

The discussion of who has the burden of proof regarding conspiracy claims cannot be divorced from discussing institutions, and it especially cannot be divorced from the unfolding of chronology to arrive at a one-size-fits all abstract conclusion.

Unbelievable.

Our discussion is about WHICH SIDE MUST PROVIDE EVIDENCE. This is an discussion that comes BEFORE you EXAMINE the evidence.

But in the ordinary course of events it is widely accepted that police, courts, academics, experts etc have the burden of proof to establish what happened in a particular event. There are rituals and procedures which are followed, and these produce verdicts, commission reports etc which are the accepted forms for conclusions to investigations.

That's why the FBI, NTSB and many other federal and state agencies dispatched 1000s of investigators to New York and other locations starting on 9/11 iteself, to determine what happened. American society, indeed global society, understood that the US federal government had the burden of proof to establish what had happend. It wasn't going to be determined on Bush's say-so alone.

So all the investigators hopped to it and they gathered evidence and determined conclusions, which become the consensus account of what happened on 9/11.

You can't examine the evidence for one side, determine it to be correct, and then claim the other side has the burden of proof because your argument is already presented.

Yes you can. If one side has already presented the evidence and reached a conclusion then it's very clearly the other side's turn. That means they now have the burden of proof. Burden of proof has passed from one side to the other.

This discussion has nothing to do with whether or not either sides' evidence is correct. You are making an a priori justification and then pretending you didn't.

There's no a priori justification. On the contrary, I am extraordinarily sensitive to the way the 'discovery process' of events unfolds. That's because I am a historian and I am using historical examples, in this case 9/11.

I have already said it's a different matter with the insta-conspiracy theorists. Many conspiracy theorists have expressed doubt that Osama Bin Laden was really killed six days ago and it's sufficiently early that not all of them can be dismissed. But, that will change over time.

Now its clear why your point is so difficult to concisely state - it is a textbook fallacy.

On the contrary, no fallacy is involved.
 
You look at all the evidence before creating your argument. Once your argument is formed, then you begin debating burden of proof with people supporting opposing arguments.

Burden of proof isn't even an issue at the point when you are observing the evidence on your own.

We are talking about it in the context of an argument with another person, in which case evidence cannot be expected to be considered before burden of proof is determined. There are scenarios were one arguer could not have any evidence simply by virtue of his position as determined by the burden of proof. Therefore, in an argument, burden of proof must be determined before evidence is considered.

Say, I seem to recall several other points in my post.

I assure you, there were none.

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here, sardonic or otherwise. Because side X has a lot of evidence, that means their BoP is the same as the CT side? There seems to be some logic missing between your premise and your conclusion.

If there is no burden of proof, there can be no evidence.

Note the difference between no burden of proof originally and a fulfilled burden of proof. If there is no burden of proof originally, there can be no evidence.
 
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Lets take a look at the Birther conspiracy-

They claim Pres Obama was not born in the US, but rather in Kenya. What evidence do they offer? They often cite interview that was taken out of context with his grandmother suggesting he was born in Kenya- she in fact never said that, that was manipulation by the Birthers.


Birthers insist the longform Birth certificate and copy recently released are fakes.

They make this assertion with no evidence-just poppycock Youtube videos. I've encountered several Birthers who haven't even looked at the birth certificate, and dismissed it as a fake.

The burden is on the Birther to back their claim- The birth certificate is recognized by the state of Hawaii as 100% genuine, ditto with the Federal government, so it's real.

Birthers assert that the burden is on Obama to prove it's not a fake. Does anyone think the Birthers can assert others must prove a negative?

The 'Deathers', the ones who insist that the Osama Bin Laden death story is a hoax don't seem to have any evidence to back their conspiracy views- and are out insisting Pres Obama or government officails need to prove the story is NOT a hoax.
I'd say the burden is on the Deathers to back their conspiracy claims...
What do you all think?

I think Birthers and Deathers are at slightly different stages, and the nature of the claims also differ.

Obama released his certificate of live birth, the certified birth certificate, during the 2008 election campaign.

From any rational perspective, Obama had met his burden of proof in 2008.

Birther CTs snowballed after Obama took office in 2009. They had the burden of proof to show that Obama wasn't actually a citizen. None did so, and boy did they try with lawsuits galore. Birther CTs failed in the only places that really mattered, the courts, which are the arenas where these issues are supposed to be resolved. The courts have consistently ruled against Birthers.

Birthers, though, did something that is extraordinarily common for CTs, not just to refuse to accept existing evidence but to demand more of it. The cry for the 'long form' arose. Partisan hackery, a hefty dash of racism and sheer bovine stupidity combined to convince 1 in 4 Americans that maybe Obama hadn't been born in the USA.

Deathers are fussing over an event that happened less than a week ago. We don't have all of the information relevant to the event yet, and we have yet to see whether there are serious conspiracy theories or if it's just a kneejerk reaction from the usual suspects.

I'd say that the AQ announcement is what definitively places the burden of proof on the conspiraloons in the case of OBL's death. It's not just the Obama administration claiming that OBL was killed. Multiple sources are usually a good thing, and in this case we got 'em. So Deathers very much have the burden of proof to explain why both AQ and the Obama administration would agree that OBL is dead.
 
Of course it does. If there's an existing explanation then somebody decided this was what happened and advanced evidence to support tis conclusion. A court, a police investigative team, a panel of experts, academics, journalists, whoever. Often all of them.

But in the ordinary course of events it is widely accepted that police, courts, academics, experts etc have the burden of proof to establish what happened in a particular event. There are rituals and procedures which are followed, and these produce verdicts, commission reports etc which are the accepted forms for conclusions to investigations.

That's why the FBI, NTSB and many other federal and state agencies dispatched 1000s of investigators to New York and other locations starting on 9/11 iteself, to determine what happened. American society, indeed global society, understood that the US federal government had the burden of proof to establish what had happend. It wasn't going to be determined on Bush's say-so alone.

So all the investigators hopped to it and they gathered evidence and determined conclusions, which become the consensus account of what happened on 9/11.

No disagreement here...

Yes you can. If one side has already presented the evidence and reached a conclusion then it's very clearly the other side's turn. That means they now have the burden of proof. Burden of proof has passed from one side to the other.

False.

This just means one side has fulfilled the burden of proof that they originally had. The burden of proof still applies to both sides. If it didn't, one side wouldn't have to provide evidence, as in the case of denying ontological claims.

I think your terms are wrong, here. Oscillating arguments are not described as each side "[successively fulfilling the burden of proof]."

Further, your point is only true if the argument for one side is assumed to be correct. That's not how the burden of proof is defined nor functions.

There's no a priori justification. On the contrary, I am extraordinarily sensitive to the way the 'discovery process' of events unfolds. That's because I am a historian and I am using historical examples, in this case 9/11.

I have already said it's a different matter with the insta-conspiracy theorists. Many conspiracy theorists have expressed doubt that Osama Bin Laden was really killed six days ago and it's sufficiently early that not all of them can be dismissed. But, that will change over time.

Still, we have the a priori judgment.
 
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Burden of proof isn't even an issue at the point when you are observing the evidence on your own.
correct.

We are talking about it in the context of an argument with another person, in which case evidence cannot be expected to be considered before burden or proof is determined.
You cannot talk about BoP unless arguments have already been formed. Arguments formed without considering evidence to form them are useless.

There are scenarios were one arguer could not have any evidence simply by virtue of his position as determined by the burden of proof.
I keep running out of rope. Do you have it? Oh, wait, you're using it. Well, I suppose it's evidence now.

If there is no burden of proof, there can be no evidence.
No, there need be no evidence produced.

Note the difference between no burden of proof originally and a fulfilled burden of proof. If there is no burden of proof originally, there can be no evidence.
Ah, yes, the old "personal dictionary" chestnut.

I think your terms are wrong, here. Oscillating arguments are not described as each side "[successively fulfilling the burden of proof]."
I think your terms are...nonstandard.

Further, your point is only true if the argument for one side is assumed to be correct. That's not how the burden of proof is defined nor functions.
"Supported", not "correct". The point works equally well whether it refers to the "official" story or the CT. No mention of "correctness" was made.
 
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Burden of proof isn't even an issue at the point when you are observing the evidence on your own.

We are talking about it in the context of an argument with another person, in which case evidence cannot be expected to be considered before burden or proof is determined. There are scenarios were one arguer could not have any evidence simply by virtue of his position as determined by the burden of proof.

:confused:

I really think you need to cite some concrete examples because you're really shooting yourself in the foot here.

In my previous posts I was actually discussing a collective, social process. There are social institutions which produce evidence-based conclusions, and there is a part of society which produces evidence-free challenges to those conclusions, aka conspiracy theories.

You now introduce a one-on-one argument situation. In which case it's really very clear. If the CT starts a thread and makes a claim they have the burden of proof and they need to provide some evidence for their claim, otherwise they're going to get jumped on and ridiculed. That happens around here a lot, as you know. Nobody else has the burden of proof to prove the CT wrong, though usually someone relishes the task, although ultra-trolls eventually get ignored.

If a non-conspiracy theorist says something then they might be referring to something in passing, which is regarded as common knowledge, just in routine conversation. Or they might be saying something with a source, in which case they have met their burden of proof.

But then a CT intervenes and says either 'you're wrong' or 'prove it'. In which case an argument then begins. It may well, however, be a spurious argument. The CT might have introduced an unproven, unsourced claim. Trying to shift burden of proof is a tricky task for the average CTer, and often blows up in his face.

Very often, however, the CT is picking a fight in the wrong place. The place where the argument is meant to be won or lost is not that particular internet forum. It's a peer review panel, a viva voce, a court, a committee hearing, somewhere serious. Nor is the non-CT's knowledge dispositive of the issue at hand. The non-CT can often very quickly familiarise themselves with the evidence, simply by Googling, and reach back into an already existing pile of resources. They simply rediscover what someone else has already worked out.

Or you get the classic JREF situation: CT makes unsourced assertion and/or spams unsourced YouTube video and is shot down in flames because another member happens to know precisely what the answer is to the idiot question. In those instances, the passing member is more than happy to shoulder burden of proof, even though he doesn't have to.
 

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