When will the AE911 petition finally reach juggernaut strength of 1%?

When will the AE911 petition reach juggernaut strength of 1%?

  • 20 years

    Votes: 3 1.4%

  • 50 years

    Votes: 2 0.9%

  • Never

    Votes: 80 36.4%

  • Who cares?….it's retarded anyway.....

    Votes: 135 61.4%
  • Total voters
    220
Oystein said:
Update at the end of the month:

1. Architects & Engineers

mar 31: 1,678
apr 30: 1,683
5 signatures in 30 days, which is 1 new A&E professional convinced by every one of the already existing A&E once every 27.1 years. This rate is very close now to the rate at which architecture and engineering graduates enter (and leave) the work force, assuming an average professional career lasts something like 35 years. That's nearly a stall then.
The exponential growth rate of 3.69% is the worst value for a single month on record yet for ae911t. To compare to recent months, as far as I have data:
...

2. Other Supporters:

mar 31: 14,555
apr 30: 14,643
88 new signatures in 30 days, which is 1 new Other Supporter convinced by every one of the already existing OS once every 13.1 years
The exponential growth rate of 7.61% is the worst value for a single month on record yet for ae911t. To compare to recent months, as far as I have data:

...

3. Fundraiser "ESO Fnl Ed World Premiere"

Apr 30: Raised $534.11 of the target $8,400 (6%), with 7 contributions ($76.30 per contribution, $89.02 per day). Started apr 24 , ends may 24. At this pace, with 24 days to go, they'll end up 68% short of their target.


The last fundraisers attracted less than $50 per day in donations. So this one has started relatively well, despite being on pace to yet another clearly failed target.
Click to expand...

The fundraiser is at its midterm - 15 of 30 days are over. So a brief update:

3. Fundraiser "ESO Fnl Ed World Premiere"

May 09: Raised $1001.09 of the target $8,400 (12%), with 23 contributions ($43.53 per contribution, $66.74 per day). Started apr 24 , ends may 24. At this pace, with 15 days to go, they'll end up 76% short of their target.


1. Architects & Engineers

apr 30: 1,683
may 09: 1,683

They are down by 1 since april 15th! :D


2. Other Supporters:

apr 30: 14,643
may 09: 14,671

That's so far on pace to just barely beat last months record low for growth rate (3.1/day vs. 2.9/day, or 8.1% annually vs. 7.6%)




(I composed this post yesterday, but for some reason never hit "Submit". Contributions are up today but signatures not; I leave the post as is, as of yesterday, and will do another update on may 16th, halfway through the month)
 
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A week's not a week unless it has some number-crunchy Oystein goodness in it!

I don't know if you get any feeback from your labour of love, Oystein, but I like it.

(Mr Gage's view may vary!)
 
DGM said:
Real non-profits and organisations actually pay money for what he's done. It helps them refine their strategies.

Oystein, I'll send Dick a note suggesting he hires you as a "consultant".

;)
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Drop the quote marks from "consultant" - I am a consultant, and I often do this kind of data mining to identify problems, or help customers set priorities, or determine that actual scope and size of a project (example: T-Mobile, Germany's largest mobile phone service provider, rolled out a new operating system and standard software suite to all their employees' computers in Germany. I knew all along that they over-estimated the number of computers actually in service by about 5000. Because of this, managment worried three weeks before the scheduled end of the project because we seemed to be far off the target that I had computed. But we finished precisely on the scheduled end date, and within 2% of budget, because I had drawn the plan using good data mining heuristics).
 
DGM said:
I meant no offence to you. You would actually be the only professional they had,(with the real classification)

:o.
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Oh don't worry it wasn't offensive, just wanted to explain where I am coming from.

I wouldn't say they don't have any "professionals", or that my qualifications would be better than theirs. Most of them, I presume do have professions, many have college degrees. Having certain qualifications doesn't necessarily protect you though from making idiotic claims, whether out of stupidity, dishonesty or mental health problems.
 
Oystein said:
Update at the end of the month:

1. Architects & Engineers

mar 31: 1,678
apr 30: 1,683
5 signatures in 30 days, which is 1 new A&E professional convinced by every one of the already existing A&E once every 27.1 years. This rate is very close now to the rate at which architecture and engineering graduates enter (and leave) the work force, assuming an average professional career lasts something like 35 years. That's nearly a stall then.
The exponential growth rate of 3.69% is the worst value for a single month on record yet for ae911t. To compare to recent months, as far as I have data:

Apr 2012: 3.69% (mar 31 - apr 30)
Mar 2012: 4.89% (feb 28 - mar 31)
Feb 2012: 8.37% (jan 29 - feb 28)
Jan 2012: 12.17% (jan 04 - jan 29)
Dec 2011: 6.97% (dec 02 - jan 04)
Nov 2011: 6.07% (oct 25 - dec 02)
Oct 2011: 22.38% (sep 27 - oct 25)
All the time before that, growth rate 20% and more.


2. Other Supporters:

mar 31: 14,555
apr 30: 14,643
88 new signatures in 30 days, which is 1 new Other Supporter convinced by every one of the already existing OS once every 13.1 years
The exponential growth rate of 7.61% is the worst value for a single month on record yet for ae911t. To compare to recent months, as far as I have data:

Apr 2012: 7.61% (mar 31 - apr 30)
Mar 2012: 9.56% (feb 28 - mar 31))
Feb 2012: 13.65% (jan 29 - feb 28)
Jan 2012: 11.84% (jan 04 - jan 29)
Dec 2011: 16.47% (dec 02 - jan 04)
Nov 2011: 30.22% (oct 25 - dec 02)
Oct 2011: 34.28% (sep 27 - oct 25)


3. Fundraiser "ESO Fnl Ed World Premiere"

Apr 30: Raised $534.11 of the target $8,400 (6%), with 7 contributions ($76.30 per contribution, $89.02 per day). Started apr 24 , ends may 24. At this pace, with 24 days to go, they'll end up 68% short of their target.


The last fundraisers attracted less than $50 per day in donations. So this one has started relatively well, despite being on pace to yet another clearly failed target.
Click to expand...

Update at mid-month: AE911T is showing unexpected signs of life!

1. Architects & Engineers

apr 30: 1,683
may 16: 1,692
9 signatures in 16 days, which is 1 new A&E professional convinced by every one of the already existing A&E once every 7.7 years.
The exponential growth rate of almost 13% would be the best value for a single month since october, if it could be sustained. But I doubt that. All 9 signatures were added within the last 7 days, before that, there was a net loss of 1 over the course of more than 3 weeks.

I believe they had a backlog of professional signatures that they could not process and verify for a week. I have said several times that the departure of Brian Romanoff, following the Nation of Islam event, hurt them in that department, as he was heading the verification team (or perhaps it wasn't even a team). This job seems to have been taken over now by Sean Brizendine (do we know anything about him?), and it appears they are working on that backlog. So it seems possible that the April numbers were lower than reality, while the current burst looks higher than reality. April and may together exhibit an annual growth rate of 6.8% and a linear growth rate of 0.30 signatures per day - both are worse than the first quarter of 2012 which already was their worst ever quarter with 8.1% and 0.36/day.

This hypothesis of a backlog in verifying professional credentials gets some incidental corroboration from the next numbers: "Other Supporters" ar still in decline.


2. Other Supporters:

apr 30: 14,643
may 16: 14,690
47 new signatures in 16 days, which is 1 new Other Supporter convinced by every one of the already existing OS once every 13.2 years
The exponential growth rate of 7.59% would be the worst value for a single month on record yet for ae911t, if sustained till the end of the month.


3. Fundraiser "ESO Fnl Ed World Premiere"

May 16: Raised $1,636.09 of the target $8,400 (19%), with 29 contributions ($56.42 per contribution, $74.37 per day). Started apr 24 , originally scheduled to end may 24, extended to jun 20. At this pace, with 35 days to go, they'll end up 50% short of their target.

The last fundraisers attracted less than $50 per day in donations. So this one is doing relatively well, despite being on pace to yet another clearly failed target.


Upcoming promotion tour

Gage will kick-off a 30-city tour of the USA to promote the abominable "Experts speak out" DVD next week. Schedule can be found here:
http://expertsspeakout.eventbrite.com/

It shall be interesting to see how this affects "performance"!
 
One thing which I speculate about their fund raisers is that because the duration is so long, assuming most people get paid fortnightly (beneficiary cheques roll out weekly.. :D ), multiple people are probably donating two if not three (maybe more) times. Not to mention it's probably the same people who are funding every fund raiser.

Just speculation of course, but food for thought.
Thanks for another update Oystein! :)
 
I love it when I see this thread has been updated by Oystein!

Sean Brizendine? Here's his AE911T profile:
http://www2.ae911truth.org/profile.php?uid=988978

Bio:

I was born and raised in California, some college, worked in restaurants, hotels, events centers and aviation litigation services, volunteer.

Personal 9/11 Statement:

The evidence suggests that buildings 1, 2 and 7 were most likely brought down in some form of explosive controlled demolition.

The peer reviewed paper by an International Team of Scientists regarding the discovery of Nanothermite in the dust is very compelling.
Click to expand...

More about him here:

http://www.ae911truth.org/de/news/314-volunteers-keep-the-wheels-turning-at-ae911truth.html

Sean Brizendine is from Santa Rosa, CA and is the Verification Team Leader. Sean notes:

I joined Architects & Engineers for 9/11 Truth as a volunteer on the Verifications Team in August 2009. Over the last 10 months I have worked with some of the most amazing individuals I have met in my life, including Richard Gage, AIA. My team has been responsible for the verification of over 500 A/E's, and more than 3,000 "other" supporters. We go to great lengths to verify the credentials of all A/E's, foreign and domestic, and take great pride in establishing the legitimacy of their verified status.
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Sean likes to work as part of a team. He says of this:

We encourage everyone that signs the petition to get involved with us as a volunteer and to become a Sustaining Supporter (those who give monthly financial contributions). We work as a team and make decisions as such. We encourage feedback and welcome debate. I am truly grateful to be a part of something that in my opinion is the most important issue of our era. Our volunteers come from all different parts of the world, with different cultures and political views, but the one thing that we all have in common is AE911Truth.
Click to expand...
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A couple of things I think are of note in that. He was the verification team leader. After Romanoff's departure, the leader has to do the manual updates. This appears to mean a lack of other staff.

Also, he was advocating people become sustaining members. Perhaps quite a few are, or perhaps they realised how important those members are to Gage's bread and butter.

Just some thoughts.
 
Orphia Nay said:
...
A couple of things I think are of note in that. He was the verification team leader. After Romanoff's departure, the leader has to do the manual updates. This appears to mean a lack of other staff.
...
Click to expand...

I was under the impression that Romanoff was indeed the actual operator of the verification team. I am trying to keep a close eye on exactly what changes happen there. I sometimes extract a list of all A&E signers so I could figure out which new additions, deaprtures and changes they have. Maybe I'll try to contact a few of the latest additions to figure out who replied to them, and when they filled out the form.
 
cjnewson88 said:
One thing which I speculate about their fund raisers is that because the duration is so long, assuming most people get paid fortnightly (beneficiary cheques roll out weekly.. :D ), multiple people are probably donating two if not three (maybe more) times. Not to mention it's probably the same people who are funding every fund raiser.

Just speculation of course, but food for thought.
Thanks for another update Oystein! :)
Click to expand...

Is that speculation based on anything?

Sure, it is possible to "pimp" such a fundraiser. In fact, one of the past ones ended very much short of target, but a few days later showed as having almost reached its target, so there must have been one large contribution to fill the gap, and that likely was an act of deliberate pimping.
Perhaps somebody has an eye on this very thread, reads my predictions of doom, and works actively to make them look better. Perhaps.

As for people contribiting more than once to a fundraiser - perhaps, but doesn't matter much. Most will contribute only once.

As for fundraisers being contributed by the same people over again: Yes, no doubt some more affluent and dedicated supporters will do that; those are then not limited by fortnightly paychecks.
 
Oystein said:
Update at mid-month: AE911T is showing unexpected signs of life!

2. Other Supporters:

apr 30: 14,643
may 16: 14,690
47 new signatures in 16 days, which is 1 new Other Supporter convinced by every one of the already existing OS once every 13.2 years
The exponential growth rate of 7.59% would be the worst value for a single month on record yet for ae911t, if sustained till the end of the month.


3. Fundraiser "ESO Fnl Ed World Premiere"

May 16: Raised $1,636.09 of the target $8,400 (19%), with 29 contributions ($56.42 per contribution, $74.37 per day). Started apr 24 , originally scheduled to end may 24, extended to jun 20. At this pace, with 35 days to go, they'll end up 50% short of their target.

The last fundraisers attracted less than $50 per day in donations. So this one is doing relatively well, despite being on pace to yet another clearly failed target.
Click to expand...

Mini update, as the current fundraiser was originally scheduled to end yesterday:

3. Fundraiser "ESO Fnl Ed World Premiere"

May 24: Raised $1,827.09 of the target $8,400 (22%), with 36 contributions ($50.75 per contribution, $60.90 per day). Started apr 24 , originally scheduled to end may 24, extended to jun 20. At this pace, with 27 days to go, they'll end up 59% short of their target.

The last fundraisers attracted less than $50 per day in donations. So this one is doing relatively well, despite being on pace to yet another clearly failed target. It has been losing steam though since the last update 8 days earlier.

(May 25, today: one more contribution of $30 has decreased the averages further)


1. Architects & Engineers

may 16: 1,692
may 25: 1,698
6 signatures in 9 days, which is 1 new A&E professional convinced by every one of the already existing A&E once every 6.5 years.
The exponential growth rate since end of april is of almost 14%. This would be the best value for a single month since october, if it could be sustained.


2. Other Supporters:

may 16: 14,690
may 25: 14,708
18 new signatures in 9 days, which is 1 new Other Supporter convinced by every one of the already existing OS once every 19.6 years
The exponential growth rate of 6.68% for the month of may so far would be the worst value for a single month on record yet for ae911t, if sustained till the end of the month.
 
Oystein said:
For some reason I never thought of running ae911truth.org through the way-back machine, but I did today, extracting historical signature numbers for most months since may 2007.

And made new graphics:

A) Architects and engineers:

...
B) Other Supporters:

...

As I had expected, their strongest period was from mid-2009 to the first quarter of 2010, and since the last quarte of 2011 they are reaching for ever newer lows. The 1600+ they have had since last september convince fewer peers each month than the 230 they had at the end of 2007. This development is much worse among the professionals than among the amateurs. Very telling!
Click to expand...

End of month update!

A) Architects and engineers:

Apr 30: 1683
May 31: 1699

16 new signatures in 31 days is equivalent to each existing signer convincing one peer once every 8.5 years.
The annual growth rate of 11.8% is the best since January (12.2% then) and a significant improvement over last month, April (3.7%). I suspect the main reason is that they had several weeks in april and perhaps march when they didn't verify any new A&E; between april 16 and april 30, they lost 1 signature! It seems that much of the backlog was finally attended to in May. The annual growth rate for the second quarter so far (apr+may) is 7.7%, which is worse than last quarter's (jan-mar) 8.1%, the previous record low. (The same is true for the linear growth rate: 0.344/day in Q2, versus 0.356/day in Q1). This lowest linear growth rate ever reveals once again that there is no organic growth at all - the A&E professionals who so far fell for Gage's lies fail completely to convince any peers at all.

New graphics:

A1) Number of signatures, month by month

2007-20120531AEnumbermonthly.jpg


A2) Linear growth rate (new signatures per 100 days), quarter by quarter (the average for each quarter is plotted at the end of the period)

2007-20120531AElineargrowthquarterly.jpg


A3) Exponential annual growth rate, quarter by quarter (the average for each quarter is plotted at the end of the period)

2007-20120531AEexponentialgrowthquarterly.jpg


A4) Growth rates year by year (from june to may)

2007-20120531AEexplingrowthyearly.jpg



B) Other Supporters:

Apr 30: 14643
May 31: 14721

78 new signatures in 31 days is equivalent to each existing signer convincing one new "member" once every 15.5 years.
The annual growth rate of 6.5% is the worst ever for a single month. The annual growth rate for the second quarter so far (apr+may) is 7.0%, which is also the worst ever. The linear growth rate of 2.721/day in Q2 is the worst for a quarter since Q4/2007.

Ever since june 2007, the relative (annual, exponential) growth rate of the "Other Supporters" has been larger than that of the A&E - until May 2012! I have no explanation for this trend.

Graphics:

B1) Number of signatures, month by month

2007-20120531OSnumbermonthly.jpg


B2) Linear growth rate (new signatures per 100 days), quarter by quarter (the average for each quarter is plotted at the end of the period)

2007-20120531OSlineargrowthquarterly.jpg


B3) Exponential annual growth rate, quarter by quarter (the average for each quarter is plotted at the end of the period)

2007-20120531OSexponentialgrowthquarterly.jpg


B4) Growth rates year by year (from june to may)

2007-20120531OSexplingrowthyearly.jpg




And finally a comparison of the development of annual growth of A&E vs. Others in recent months:

201105-201205AEOSexponentialgrowthmonthly.jpg
 
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Could somebody please check whether I have the right numbers for the current "ESO Fnl Ed World Premiere" fundraiser, which you find on the left and near the top of http://ae911truth.org/en.html ? I sometimes have trouble getting a current update due to caching or something:

Raised $2207,09 of the target $8400 (26%) with 42 contributions. Started April 24 (37 days ago), Ends June 20.

This is so far actual a slight improvement over the last 2 fundraisers, even taken together. I'll post an analysis and some graphics tomorrow.
 
By the way: The Petition started in May 2007 (don't know the exact day), so they had their 5th anniversary this month!
 
Oystein said:
By the way: The Petition started in May 2007 (don't know the exact day), so they had their 5th anniversary this month!
Click to expand...
What is significant about that date is that it is at least one or two years after any reasoned "CD at WTC" arguments had been answered "No CD."

So the AE911 petition was known to be untruthful from the outset.

Several issues flow from that bit of reality...

...like why didn't they choose to start with a dishonest agenda? There is no room for the excuse "we genuinely didn't know any better at the time...."
 
Thanks again, Oystein.

I'm wondering how many structural engineers they have now. I had a list from a couple of years ago, but I think it's on my dead computer.
 
Orphia Nay said:
Thanks again, Oystein.

I'm wondering how many structural engineers they have now. I had a list from a couple of years ago, but I think it's on my dead computer.
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My most recent exact tally was beginning of february; they had 303 Professional Engineers (licensed) then, 142 of which self-identify as civil or structural engineers. I don't have a full count, but estimate about 25*) with a license as Structural Engineer

Per May 14th, they had 311 PEs (+9-1 = +8), with +4 civil engineers, and still about 25 structural engineers.




*) 14 were structural engineers by degree. 7 of these also have a license as S.E., 2 don't, and 5 I had not verified; I assume these 5 have proper licenses, so that group is 12 strong. In addition, I found 11 with an S.E. license who "originally" have degrees or licenses in other fields. Since I had not checked the licenses of about 25% of all engineers, one might estimate another 3 licensed S.E.s, for a total of 12+11+3=25
 
Red face department. :o :mad:

Naturally this was not what I meant. :(
ozeco41 said:
......like why didn't they choose to start with a dishonest agenda?
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...and it should have been:
"...like why did they choose to start with a dishonest agenda? "


...Don't ask - let me blame it on age... ;)
 
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Oystein said:
End of month update!

A) Architects and engineers:

Apr 30: 1683
May 31: 1699
...

B) Other Supporters:

Apr 30: 14643
May 31: 14721
...
Click to expand...

Mid-month update:

A) Architects and engineers:

May 31: 1699
Jun 15: 1,700

Broke the next century, but that is only 1 new signature in 15 days - if they continue at that pace, it will be their worst month ever. Annual growth 1.44% for the month so far, that's 1 new signature per existing signer once every 69 (!) years. This is worse than stagnation. I suspect though that the verification team is taking another break and that we will see a handful coming in with a few days sometime soon. By the way: They were at 1.701 briefly earlier this month, then dropped back to 1,700.

However: The list of names at http://www2.ae911truth.org/signpetition.php which has last been updated two days ago, has only 1,697 names - they are not really at 1,700 yet!
I had not noticed this discrepancy before, but don't know if it is new.



B) Other Supporters:

May 31: 14,721
Jun 15: 14,758

37 signatures in 15 days is an annual growth rate of 6.30% since the end of last month. This, too, is on pace to becoming their worst month ever: One new signature per existing "member" every 15.9 years.



C) Fundraiser "ESO Fnl Ed World Premiere":

Started Apr 24
Original end date was May 24. Was extended to Jun 20, now again extended, to Jul 13.
Raised $ 3,277.09 with 61 contributions, towards a target of $ 8,400 (39%).
That's $ 63.02 per day, 53.72 per contribution. At this pace, they'll end up 41% short of their target (of course if you extend the end date just long enough, you'll eventually get there).

The most recent contribution was $ 300 - I am at a loss why someone would donate this much to a mere marketing ploy!

Anyway, they are doing better than the most recent fundraisers, but the last two were mostly concurrent - difficult to decide how to treat two concurrent fundraisers and compare them to a single one. Perhaps the most recent two did worse individually because some contributors would split their money on them.
 
Oystein said:
... I suspect though that the verification team is taking another break and that we will see a handful coming in with a few days sometime soon. ...
Click to expand...

Gotta correct myself on this one. I just compared the full list of 1697 names from june 13th with the same list of june 5th, eight days earlier, and found that there are two new names, and two old ones have been deleted.

So they are verifying signatures, BUT they lost "members" at the same time!
 
Oystein said:
Gotta correct myself on this one. I just compared the full list of 1697 names from june 13th with the same list of june 5th, eight days earlier, and found that there are two new names, and two old ones have been deleted.

So they are verifying signatures, BUT they lost "members" at the same time!
Click to expand...

hehe.gif


Awesome.

Excellent data research, Oystein.
 
We were talking earlier about AE911T resignations. Just came across this:

http://truthaction.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=50596#50596

"Going through email in reverse order here, I see you posted about this at TA, a few corrections; I retired from the AE board Jan 12 2012, and in general, AE is not good at PR. Many people have tried for a long time to make it better." - Justin Keogh (quoted by Snowcrash).

Did you know about this, Oystein?

ETA: I can't find a profile page for Justin Keogh at http://www.ae911truth.org/ using Google Advanced search. It may have been taken down.
 
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Orphia Nay said:
We were talking earlier about AE911T resignations. Just came across this:

http://truthaction.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=50596#50596

"Going through email in reverse order here, I see you posted about this at TA, a few corrections; I retired from the AE board Jan 12 2012, and in general, AE is not good at PR. Many people have tried for a long time to make it better." - Justin Keogh (quoted by Snowcrash).

Did you know about this, Oystein?

ETA: I can't find a profile page for Justin Keogh at http://www.ae911truth.org/ using Google Advanced search. It may have been taken down.
Click to expand...

Back in July 2010, there were some slow days on a big geology project in Wyoming. (Nothing to do while the shots went off, except hope you set up all the instruments and recorders properly!).

So, I wrote my first 'bot, in Python, and sent it crawling over AE911Truth to gather info on the opinions of the engineers and architects. I got reams of info.

Here is the part about Justin Keogh:
user id = 999900
Name: Justin Keogh
Title: Physics Student  

Degree:  

Country: USA
Category: Other Supporters and A&E Students
Discipline: Other — Physics/Chemistry
Status: Student
Bio: Student.
Statement: The evidence for the controlled demolition of the World Trade Center Towers and Building 7 is prima facie. Hydrocarbon fires have never, and will never cause skyscrapers to explode top down. The nation was shocked into a state of suspended disbelief by a well funded group of psychological warfare experts.
------------------------------------------------------------
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Mostly I used it to see how many of Gage's engineers said the Twin Towers fell inside their own footprint, even though Gage says they fell outside (and WTC 7 fell inside). It was prep for the big Coast-to-Coast AM debate in August 2010.

Hmph.:boggled:
 
Orphia Nay said:
We were talking earlier about AE911T resignations. Just came across this:

http://truthaction.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=50596#50596

"Going through email in reverse order here, I see you posted about this at TA, a few corrections; I retired from the AE board Jan 12 2012, and in general, AE is not good at PR. Many people have tried for a long time to make it better." - Justin Keogh (quoted by Snowcrash).

Did you know about this, Oystein?

ETA: I can't find a profile page for Justin Keogh at http://www.ae911truth.org/ using Google Advanced search. It may have been taken down.
Click to expand...


A) No, didn't know about that! Seems they don't have a list of board member anywhere, other than their 990 forms which come a year later.

B) AE is not good at PR?? I thought it's the only thing they are good at :D

C) Justin is still listed among the 14000+ other supporters:
http://www2.ae911truth.org/profile.php?uid=999900
 
Thanks, Dave. :)

Oystein said:
A) No, didn't know about that! Seems they don't have a list of board member anywhere, other than their 990 forms which come a year later.
Click to expand...

Speaking of 990s, I can't connect to guidestar.org. I wanted to check if there'd been any other ones posted.

Oystein said:
B) AE is not good at PR?? I thought it's the only thing they are good at :D
Click to expand...

"Good" being a relative term. ;)

Oystein said:
C) Justin is still listed among the 14000+ other supporters:
http://www2.ae911truth.org/profile.php?uid=999900
Click to expand...

Thanks.
 
Orphia Nay said:
Speaking of 990s, I can't connect to guidestar.org. I wanted to check if there'd been any other ones posted.
Click to expand...

Oystein said:
Strange. I have no such problem. No, 2010 is still the most recent.
Click to expand...

I have my request in for a copy of 2011 form 990. I suspect they filed for the "automatic 3-month extension" giving them until August 15th to file.

Last year they filed for a second extension but, I would tend to doubt they would do this again (two years in a row) because it's a sure bet the IRS will look more closely at your accounting practices. They tend to frown on non-profits that can't seem to keep their books up to date.

We'll see how this plays out.
 
Oystein said:
End of month update!

A) Architects and engineers:

Apr 30: 1683
May 31: 1699

B) Other Supporters:

Apr 30: 14643
May 31: 14721

78 new signatures in 31 days is equivalent to each existing signer convincing one new "member" once every 15.5 years.
The annual growth rate of 6.5% is the worst ever for a single month. The annual growth rate for the second quarter so far (apr+may) is 7.0%, which is also the worst ever. The linear growth rate of 2.721/day in Q2 is the worst for a quarter since Q4/2007.

Ever since june 2007, the relative (annual, exponential) growth rate of the "Other Supporters" has been larger than that of the A&E - until May 2012! I have no explanation for this trend.

Graphics:

B1) Number of signatures, month by month

[qimg]http://i1088.photobucket.com/albums/i328/MikeAlfaromeo/AE911T/2007-20120531OSnumbermonthly.jpg[/qimg]

B2) Linear growth rate (new signatures per 100 days), quarter by quarter (the average for each quarter is plotted at the end of the period)

[qimg]http://i1088.photobucket.com/albums/i328/MikeAlfaromeo/AE911T/2007-20120531OSlineargrowthquarterly.jpg[/qimg]

B3) Exponential annual growth rate, quarter by quarter (the average for each quarter is plotted at the end of the period)

[qimg]http://i1088.photobucket.com/albums/i328/MikeAlfaromeo/AE911T/2007-20120531OSexponentialgrowthquarterly.jpg[/qimg]

B4) Growth rates year by year (from june to may)

[qimg]http://i1088.photobucket.com/albums/i328/MikeAlfaromeo/AE911T/2007-20120531OSexplingrowthyearly.jpg[/qimg]



And finally a comparison of the development of annual growth of A&E vs. Others in recent months:

[qimg]http://i1088.photobucket.com/albums/i328/MikeAlfaromeo/AE911T/201105-201205AEOSexponentialgrowthmonthly.jpg[/qimg]
Click to expand...

End of month update!

A) Architects and engineers:

May 31: 1699
Jun 30: 1701

2 new signatures in 30 days is equivalent to each existing signer convincing one peer once every 69.3 years. Scott Sommers asked a while ago what growth rate would constitute a virtual stand-still. This is it: Signers must be dying at a faster rate than new ones coming in!
The annual growth rate of 1.44% is the worst ever, last month, May (11.8%) was the second-best since last fall. I suspect that the verification team hasn't been active much and may have a small stack of unverified signatures waiting to make the list. The list has been updated only two or three times this month - they usually do that a few times a week.
The annual growth rate for the second quarter is 5.6%, which is the worst ever. The linear growth rate of 0.736/day in Q2 is the worst for a quarter since Q4/2007.

The list by the way does NOT have 1701 names - it has only 1699 names, but I don't know since when there has been a discrepancy between the official count and the actual number of names.


B) Other Supporters:

May 31: 14,721
Jun 30: 14,804

83 new signatures in 30 days is equivalent to each existing signer convincing one new "member" once every 14.1 years.
The annual growth rate of 7.1% is slightly better than last month's all-time low of 6.5%, but the second-worst ever (there were two months with zero and negative growth in the early days - those can't count). The annual growth rate for the second quarter is 7.1%, which is the worst ever. The linear growth rate of 2.736/day in Q2 is the worst for a quarter since Q4/2007.



My internet connection is very bad today, I can't upload new graphics. I hope I can do that tomorrow.
 
By the way,

I only now discovered that all A&E signers with their Bio and Personal Statements are listed here:

http://www2.ae911truth.org/supporters.php
With three links to
It seems that, within each subcategory, these are ordered by date of signature, with the newest entries at the bottom. This list sometimes lags behind the by some days; right now, it is current as of perhaps late may, with 1697 names. The "official", linked-to list of signers at http://www2.ae911truth.org/signpetition.php is of june 27th and has 1699 names, on the front page they currently advertise 1706 A&E. This number is probably a miscount, was 1701 when the list was updated on june 27th, so 2 too much.


They used to also list all "Other Supporters" until probably sometime in 2009, when the list became too long to handle properly. The last capture on the WayBackMachine was on 02/21/2009:
http://web.archive.org/web/20090221071723/http://www.ae911truth.org/supporters.php?g=_ALL_



Found a cutie by the way:
http://www2.ae911truth.org/profile.php?uid=998388
:o
 
Update halfway through the month:

A) Architects and engineers:

Jun 30: 1701
Jul 16: 1702

Interestingly, a couple of days ago they had increased to 1706, after the number had remained steady at 1701 for weeks, but then corrected down to 1702. Not sure what happened there. As I saif earlier, the 1701 by jun 30th wasn't true, the full listing had only 1699 names. Perhaps they corrected that, but the full listing has not yet been updated, it's still the june 27th version with 1699 names. Perhaps a couple of professionals asked them to be taken off of the list? I'll find out as soon as the list gets updated!

Only 1 new signature in the first 16 days of july is of course on track to becoming their worst month ever, and will continue a downward trend into its fourth month in a row...

2007-20120716AElineargrowthquarterly.jpg


...and third year in a row:

2007-20120716AEexplingrowthyearly.jpg

(years are from june to may, as the petition started in may 2007)


B) Other Supporters:

Jun 30: 14,804
Jul 16: 14,839

Only 35 new signers in 16 day, that's is equivalent to each existing signer convincing one new "member" once every 18.1 years.
The annual growth rate of 5.5% is also on course to become the worst ever (there were two months with zero and negative growth in the early days - those can't count).

This continues a trend that has been going on for three years now...

2007-20120716OSexplingrowthyearly.jpg


... and the fourth quarter in a row:

2007-20120716OSlineargrowthquarterly.jpg



Comparing A&E professionals and Other Supporters (non-professionals)

The linear growth rate (number of signatures par day, or year...) of the two groups can't be compared, because obviously the larger group of "other supporters" has a much higher count. The annual growth rate in % however is a comparable figure. It is interesting to note that the group of non-professional signers has always been growing faster than the group of professionals, in every year since 2007...

2007-20120716AEOSexponentialgrowthyearly.jpg


...every quarter since Q3/2007 (Q1/2009 had both almost equal, but in that quarter, a lot of formerly "other supporters" were upgraded to "A&E professionals" when they relaxed their criteria)

2007-20120716AEOSexponentialgrowthquarterly.jpg


...and 8 out of the last 10 months:

201010-20120716AEOSexponentialgrowthmonthly.jpg


This trend clearly indicates that non-professionals fall for AE911Lies more easily than professionals - a condemning sign for the acceptance of their claims among those who matter to them!
 
Last edited:
The latest AE911Truth fundraiser ended on June 13th
This one: "ESO Fnl Ed World Premiere" to "Fund mktg/venue costs for multi-city cross-country tour for the final edition".

It raised US$ 4087.09 in 76 days towards a target of $ 8.400 (49%), from 79 contributions. That's $ 53.78/day, and $ 51,74.
Originally, this fundraiser was scheduled to run from april 24th to may 24th, but was extended twice, to june 20th and then to july 13th, apparently to coincide (roughly) with the end of the Richard Gage promo tour that ended on july 11th, that this fundraiser was supposed to help finance.


There were earlier fundraising campaigns in december-february and in april/may. In april/may, they had 2 campaigns at mostly the same time; both started on march 3rd, but one ran through march 24th*) and the other throuh april 8th. The former had 15 contributors, the latter 28. It seems reasonable to suppose that some of these contributors gave money to both campaigns, so the actual number of contributors to these two concurrent fundraisers was anywhere between 28 (assuming that all 15 who contributed to the former also contributed to the latter) and 43 (assuming that none did).


The following table lists the fundamentals of these fundraisers:

Period | # of days | # of contributors | US$ raised | $ per day | $ per contrib.
Dec'11 – Feb'12|68|95|10,084.61|148.30|106.15
Mar'12 – Apr'12 (2 Fundraisers)|36|28-43|2,134.11|59.28|49.63-76.22
Apr'12 – Jul'12|80|79|4,087.09|51.09|51.74
Average | 61 | 67-72 | 5,435 | 86.22 | 69.17-78.04


The following graphic shows these values, expressed as percent-values of their respective averages. Since the number of contributors in the second period has a range, I show the min and max as pale purple dasged lines, and some mid-point estimate in strong purple dashed. As a consequence, the dollars/contributor have a range, the max and min of which are schown as pale orange solid line, and a mid-point estimate in strong orange.

Fundraisers201112-201207.jpg


This shows, as would be expected, that the longer a fundraising campaign runs (green dotted line), the more contributors it has (purple dotted line).
But the sum of dollar contributions per day has been declining (blue solid line), and quite probably the average dollar contribution per person is also declining (orange solid line).




*) This fundraiser originally ended with 15 contributions for $879,11 (19% of target) - it now shows 16 contributions for 100% of target plus 11 cents. Obviously, it has been "pimped" after the fundraiser ended
 
It's a good thing Gage owns this organisation. You would expect his job to be on the line as an under-performing assets.

What am I saying. His target audience doesn't care about this. As long as he keeps that AIA after his name, that's what they're really paying for.

:rolleyes:
 
Oystein said:
Update halfway through the month:

A) Architects and engineers:

Jun 30: 1701
Jul 16: 1702

Interestingly, a couple of days ago they had increased to 1706, after the number had remained steady at 1701 for weeks, but then corrected down to 1702. Not sure what happened there. As I said earlier, the 1701 by jun 30th wasn't true, the full listing had only 1699 names. Perhaps they corrected that, but the full listing has not yet been updated, it's still the june 27th version with 1699 names. Perhaps a couple of professionals asked them to be taken off of the list? I'll find out as soon as the list gets updated!
...
Click to expand...

They updated the list of petition signers today, and realtity is even worse:

They are down by one, from 1699 three weeks ago to 1698 today:
http://www2.ae911truth.org/signpetition.php

Two former signers have been taken off of the list:
Both had been on the list since some time between may 2008 and may 2009.

And one architect has newly signed up:



So, again:
  • When they reported 1701 A&E at the end of june, they actually only had 1699
  • They now report an increase by 1, to 1702, but actually had a net decrease by one (-2+1), to 1698
AE911truth can not only not do engineering, now they can't even count!
 
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