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Merged Silver Over 40.00 / Real and fake prices

This is what I meant when I said you sounded like all the failed day traders I've known.

Find a failed day trader or speculator or technical analyst (or gambler!) and ask him why he got out of it, or lost so much money. You're bound to hear about how the basic strategy would have worked, but for...

...getting greedy...

...or not following through with the plan, or...

...not expecting nor accounting for (insert Black Swan event here), or...

...they ended up "not doing what they were supposed to do, and nothing else", or...

...fill in the special pleading of your choice.

ok, I see what you meant. you're saying that should I not become a billionaire, one of my excuses is listed above. gotcha.

Of course I do. I'll stipulate that you have a 50/50 chance of profiting from any given trade.

actually less I think. of course it can only go in 2 directions, however whether it goes in your direction first, without tagging your stop loss then going, is another matter entirely.

What remains to be demonstrated is whether one can consistently make money by reading charts. I'd still say no, until proven otherwise.

fair enough.
 
:rolleyes: I did not use the word pathetic. but I'm tempted now.

herd = dumb money (statistically)
msm = clueless mouthpieces

if Goldman tells the muppets to sell, their prop desk is buying.

make of it what you will.

So when silver does what you think it should, that's the "smart" money in control.

When silver does the opposite of what you think it should, that's the "dumb" money in control.

You might wanna take it easy with the eye-rolls.
 
So when silver does what you think it should, that's the "smart" money in control.

When silver does the opposite of what you think it should, that's the "dumb" money in control.

You might wanna take it easy with the eye-rolls.

being as you don't seem to understand, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and explain it for you.

the smart money is the commercials (bullion banks and market-makers, they who never lose) the dumb money is the "managed money", pension funds, hedge funds, day traders and everyone else. the 95% losers as opposed to the 5% winners.

for the record, being as I don't have a co-located server and an HFT division with 50 maths PHDs and hundreds of billions of fed freebie dollars to trade with, I am not implying I am part of SM.

here is the managed money short position

the smart money will always be buying into approaching bottoms and selling approaching tops, that's what they do. in this instance, it is clear that all that "managed" money that has sold silver they don't have, is going to have to cover at some point. if it was the other way round, the banks could potentially actually deliver, this way round, er no.. all of those shorts will come off one way or another, leading to a whole lot of buying at the bottom as it reverses..

I did not invent these terms, they have been around longer than both of us.

so if you stop attempting to assign your words to me, I wont have to treat you with disdain.
 
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Silver spot $24.40 just now.

Was this predicted as a consequence of the short squeeze ? Did unravelling the short positions cause the price drop or are the short positions still open and the move to $150 an ounce is just a hop, skip and jump away ?
 
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Silver spot $24.40 just now.

Was this predicted as a consequence of the short squeeze ? Did unravelling the short positions cause the price drop or are the short positions still open and the move to $150 an ounce is just a hop, skip and jump away ?

heh :) $150s gonna take a while. no, shorts definitely winning at this point.

however being as they cannot deliver the silver they sold, and it would in fact take about 100 years mining to get it, they will be buying back in again at *some* point.

meanwhile the commercials are on the point of going net long, for like the first time ever. they probably are already.

what we are seeing here today is over-weekend margin call liquidation from Friday's drop, gee wonder who's buying it all as the herd sells out? :D

and, it is not just gold and silver. looks like some major event brewing under the covers to me.

liquidation.png


and love these perfectly normal markets where each asset trades according to supply & demand lol, makes perfect sense all the yen crosses should correlate about 95% with everything else doesnt it?
 
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also, the longer the price stays anywhere near these levels, the more extreme the rebound must be, given that the cost of production per Oz is at or higher than market price.

The true cost of mining silver

The first thing silver investors should note is that the true cost to produce an ounce of silver (excluding write-downs) was $23.68 for 2012, which is around a 7% increase in costs over 2011.

The true silver cost of $23.68 is much higher than the reported "cash costs" (under $10 for most miners) and gives silver miners very limited profit at current silver prices ($28-29 per ounce). This gives investors a much better picture that aligns with silver miner share prices and earnings, which have both been dropping. When considering these margin pressures this drop in share prices makes sense.

Not only are silver costs giving silver miners very slim margins, but they are also still rising (7% year-over-year) which makes it an exceptionally tough environment for silver miners. In our opinion, this cost pressure is related to the true inflation rate (much higher than government manufactured CPI) and that is also why we expect cost pressures to continue into 2013. Slim margins should continue into 2013 without a significant rise in the silver price.

Fourth quarter numbers give investors a much better picture of the direction silver costs are headed, because they represent the most recent costs for the industry. At first glance, fourth quarter costs of $23.04 look like the industry is lowering the cost of producing silver from the annual average of $23.68. But after this cursory glance, investors will notice that taxes paid in 4QFY12 was significantly lower than both 4QFY11 and the average amount of taxes paid for 2012, which totaled $210 million (the low fourth quarter taxes was primarily due to a large tax adjustment assessed to SSRI).

When taxes are normalized to $50 million (the quarterly average for the year), production costs rise to $24.70 per ounce which would support our estimates that 2013 will see more rising costs for the silver industry.

we are now below the cost of production, supply will start going offline quickly if this persists, so one would think that cannot last very long in any correctly functioning marketplace? (either that, or we all just learn to do without it instead)

the next thing that happens is the producers start buying up supply that is below their cost base as a straight arb trade.
 
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kevsta, lots of graphs there.

The BBC is explaining the drop in gold and silver prices being caused by:

  • Lower inflation meaning that there is less need for investors to hedge
  • US Treasury stopping quantitative easing, tightening the money supply and reducing inflationary pressures
  • Lower demand from China due to slowing economic growth
  • In the case of gold, the Indian government's tax

The one thing I do know is that I have no idea what the silver price will be doing in the future.
 
kevsta, lots of graphs there.

yes, all different things, all with the exact same price action. interesting, eh?

The BBC is explaining the drop in gold and silver prices being caused by:

  • Lower inflation meaning that there is less need for investors to hedge
  • US Treasury stopping quantitative easing, tightening the money supply and reducing inflationary pressures
  • Lower demand from China due to slowing economic growth
  • In the case of gold, the Indian government's tax

The one thing I do know is that I have no idea what the silver price will be doing in the future.

yes, but there are those of us who think the MSM have zero clue about anything and repeat what their teleprompters say, as though it is fact :)

1. I think is incorrect.
2. is just hilarious.
3. also hilarious when you look at the amount that has been imported through HK in the last few weeks
4. am not qualified to comment, although would say in general, governments cant defeat markets for very long

I think the real reasons will likely become all-too apparent in due course. my own leanings are towards those of Paul Craig Roberts' opinions.. (although you probably know this already dont you :) )

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2013/04/13/assault-on-gold-update-paul-craig-roberts/

I was the first to point out that the Federal Reserve was rigging all markets, not merely bond prices and interest rates, and that the Fed is rigging the bullion market in order to protect the US dollar’s exchange value, which is threatened by the Fed’s quantitative easing. With the Fed adding to the supply of dollars faster than the demand for dollars is increasing, the price or exchange value of the dollar is set up to fall.

A fall in the dollar’s exchange rate would push up import prices and, thereby, domestic inflation, and the Fed would lose control over interest rates. The bond market would collapse and with it the values of debt-related derivatives on the “banks too big too fail” balance sheets. The financial system would be in turmoil, and panic would reign.

Rapidly rising bullion prices were an indication of loss of confidence in the dollar and were signaling a drop in the dollar’s exchange rate. The Fed used naked shorts in the paper gold market to offset the price effect of a rising demand for bullion possession. Short sales that drive down the price trigger stop-loss orders that automatically lead to individual sales of bullion holdings once their loss limits are reached.

According to Andrew Maguire, on Friday, April 12, the Fed’s agents hit the market with 500 tons of naked shorts. Normally, a short is when an investor thinks the price of a stock or commodity is going to fall. He wants to sell the item in advance of the fall, pocket the money, and then buy the item back after it falls in price, thus making money on the short sale. If he doesn’t have the item, he borrows it from someone who does, putting up cash collateral equal to the current market price. Then he sells the item, waits for it to fall in price, buys it back at the lower price and returns it to the owner who returns his collateral. If enough shorts are sold, the result can be to drive down the market price.

A naked short is when the short seller does not have or borrow the item that he shorts, but sells shorts regardless. In the paper gold market, the participants are betting on gold prices and are content with the monetary payment. Therefore, generally, as participants are not interested in taking delivery of the gold, naked shorts do not need to be covered with the physical metal.

In other words, with naked shorts, no physical metal is actually sold.

People ask me how I know that the Fed is rigging the bullion price and seem surprised that anyone would think the Fed and its bullion bank agents would do such a thing, despite the public knowledge that the Fed is rigging the bond market and the banks with the Fed’s knowledge rigged the Libor rate. The answer is that the circumstantial evidence is powerful.

Consider the 500 tons of paper gold sold on Friday. Begin with the question, how many ounces is 500 tons? There are 2,000 pounds to one ton. 500 tons equal 1,000,000 pounds. There are 16 ounces to one pound, which comes to 16 million ounces of short sales on Friday.

Who has 16 million ounces of gold? At the beginning gold price that day of about $1,550, that comes to $24,800,000,000. Who has that kind of money?

What happens when 500 tons of gold sales are dumped on the market at one time or on one day? Correct, it drives the price down. Investors who want to get out of large positions would spread sales out over time so as not to lower their sales proceeds. The sale took gold down by about $73 per ounce. That means the seller or sellers lost up to $73 dollars 16 million times, or $1,168,000,000.

Who can afford to lose that kind of money? Only a central bank that can print it.

I believe that the authorities would like to drive the gold price down further and will, if they can, hit the gold market twice more next week and put gold at $1,400 per ounce or lower. The successive declines could perhaps spook individual holders of physical gold and result in actual net sales of physical gold as people reduced their holdings of the metal.

Possibly the Fed fears a dollar crisis or derivative blowup is nearing and is trying to reset the gold/dollar price prior to the outbreak of trouble. If ill winds are forecast, the Fed might feel it is better positioned to deal with crisis if the price of bullion is lower and confidence in bullion as a refuge has been shaken.

In addition to short selling that is clearly intended to drive down the gold price, orchestration is also indicated by the advance announcements this month first from brokerage houses and then from Goldman Sachs that hedge funds and institutional investors would be selling their gold positions. The purpose of these announcements was to encourage individual investors to get out of gold before the big boys did. Does anyone believe that hedge funds and Wall Street would announce their sales in advance so the small fry can get out of gold at a higher price than they do?

If these advanced announcements are not orchestration, what are they?

I see the orchestrated effort to suppress the price of gold and silver as a sign that the authorities are frightened that trouble is brewing that they cannot control unless there is strong confidence in the dollar. Otherwise, what is the point of the heavy short selling and orchestrated announcements of gold sales in advance of the sales?

I could have written this myself.

**Disclaimer, I am not Paul Craig Roberts
 
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I think the real reasons will likely become all-too apparent in due course.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...-find-evidence-of-Syrian-chemical-attack.html

Government scientists working at the Ministry of Defence's research facility at Porton Down, Wiltshere, found traces of "some kind of chemical weapon" [ :) ] after performing tests, according to The Times.

?? an upcoming forcible intervention in Syria against China & Russia's wishes would be one such possibility, no?
 
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still, since my original appointment as prime metals spokesmen here a year or two back, I have taught myself to do this

mid-april.png


and if we get a sustained equities sell off from here, it could be 2x this by the end of the week, so its not all bad. two years ago I would definitely have been distinctly less upbeat about it all :D
 
‘Silver Circle’: A libertarian love story where the bad guys work at the Federal Reserve

“Silver Circle” is an animated love story/hyperinflation dystopia set at the Federal Reserve. It had its Washington-area premiere this weekend: one screen, one theater, a one-week run at the Regal theater in the Ballston Common mall.

. . .

The story is set in 2019, a mere six years from now, a span of time during which the cost of a loaf of bread has risen to $52 and bars have begun to advertise $90 beer specials. The villainous Federal Reserve’s Department of Housing Stability now evicts the hard-working middle class from their homes in order to regulate market demand. Meanwhile, Fed investigator Jay Nelson is beginning to question just what his boss is up to. (His boss is up to trying to have Jay killed; Jay turns to a sexy anarchist marketing illegal currency for help.)

. . .

So far “Silver Circle” has zero positive reviews on RottenTomatoes.com — “Like a Rand Paul rally rendered in the style of Grand Theft Auto” one critic writes. BoxOfficeMojo.com estimates is current gross is about $3,100, though those numbers do not include the D.C. premiere.

Roberts is unconcerned. He expects the film to recoup most of its expenses via DVD sales and online streaming distribution, a natural home for the film’s digitally savvy audience.

A sequel is already in the works.

Sounds like a pleasant distraction from reality for the Ron Paul/Glenn Beck crowd right about now. :D
 
kevsta, lots of graphs there.

The BBC is explaining the drop in gold and silver prices being caused by:

  • Lower inflation meaning that there is less need for investors to hedge
  • US Treasury stopping quantitative easing, tightening the money supply and reducing inflationary pressures
  • Lower demand from China due to slowing economic growth
  • In the case of gold, the Indian government's tax

The one thing I do know is that I have no idea what the silver price will be doing in the future.

Ah, didn't know about that one. This seems to have been in place for a few months now:
India raises import duty on raw gold to 5 percent

By Siddesh Mayenkar

MUMBAI | Tue Jan 22, 2013 2:29pm IST

(Reuters) - India more than doubled the import duty on gold dore bars and ores on Tuesday, hard on the heels of a hike in taxes on refined gold, as the government tries to curb demand in the world's biggest importer of bullion and rein in a record current account deficit.

India, whose gold imports total about 800 tonnes a year, hiked the import duty on gold dore bars to 5 percent from 2 percent. Dore, an alloy of gold and silver that is used by refineries to produce pure gold, accounts for about 100 tonnes of annual imports.

The move came one day after the government increased import tax on gold to 6 percent from 4 percent, aiming at closing the gap on import duties on bullion bars and dore, which had become an attractive import since last year after the government hiked tax on gold imports to 4 percent.

More recently:
India unlikely to hike gold duty again: Chidambaram

By Antoni Slodkowski

TOKYO | Tue Apr 2, 2013 12:40pm IST

(Reuters) - Finance Minister P. Chidambaram suggested on Tuesday that the government is unlikely to raise the import tax on gold further to avoid gold smuggling and would instead introduce inflation-indexed instruments to help curb a record current account deficit.

In January India raised the import tax on gold to 6 percent to curb purchases.

Its passion for gold, seen by many as a hedge against high inflation, has led to a rise in its current account deficit, which reached an all-time high of 6.7 percent of gross domestic product in the December quarter.

"We did raise tariffs from 4 percent to 6 percent, but there are limits to which tariffs can be raised on gold, because if you raise tariffs prohibitively, gold smuggling will increase," Chidambaram told Reuters in an interview.

The combination of easing inflation and the new tax on gold could dampen India's appetite for the shiny stuff. Of course, this would not be directly relevant to silver, although the two sort of tend to move in tandem.
 
Praise the Bernank for printing money which drives the value of my physical silver holdings higher.

Of course, I have sympathy for the great unwashed who will be wiped out as inflation destroys their meager incomes.

But fear not, the bankers who are currently flipping bonds back to the Fed within a week of their issuance are making a fat payday every POMO day and will continue to live in their shining mansions on the hill.

If you are kind to them, they may feel pitty for you and provide you with handouts and perhaps some rice to feed your families.

Praise Mao, and may the Bernank reign supreme forever.

qflulz :D
 
How does the ongoing shortage of silver for industrial use factor into all this? Apple (IIRC) had to delay production on certain products recently due to lack of silver.
 
Thanks for that.

I've done some calculations and found when I add that data in, the fair market value of silver should be exactly $27.64/oz.

and so much for Apps eh? ..because of course the fundamentals are all so entirely different now, as opposed to a week last Tuesday :D

everything in certain asset classes is definitely all worth 20% less at least lol
 

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