• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Abenomics: medicine or poison for Japan?

Medicine or poison?

  • Medicine

    Votes: 12 27.3%

  • Poison

    Votes: 3 6.8%

  • Don't know

    Votes: 18 40.9%

  • Planet X

    Votes: 11 25.0%
  • Total voters
    44
The Don said:
I don't know which is why I asked the question. In a deflationary spiral I thought that pretty much *everyone* was unwilling to spend.
Click to expand...

Well the idea is to break the deflationary spiral by making as many interventions as you can. This would be in addition to the monetary policy intervention, which is beginning to show signs of working.
 
The Don said:
The Nikkei is currently trading at 13,850 or thereabouts.....

Is that inside or outside the triangle (I think it is outside ) ?

I guess the question is whether it's part of a bold movement upwards, a "headfake" or something else.
Click to expand...

I found a funky new java charting site everybody can play with.

http://www.investing.com/indices/japan-ni225-advanced-chart

nikkei-breakout.png


now this actually looks like a breakout except for one thing that makes a manipulation trader suspicious and would prevent a long trade here..

notice how the price gapped straight up over the exact trendline area?

[EDIT. my mistake, I posted the Nikkei cash, not futures chart, and so of course it gaps (to open where the futures are) - I thought it was the futures chart, so the above is not applicable in this case, but often is. ]

marketmakers often gap up/down past orders (resistance) when required and when they do it's usually a trap move.

http://vsa.pipbuilders.com/mtmv3.pdf page 28

Frequently, you will find that there are days where the market gaps up on weakness. This gapping up is far different from a wide spread up, where the market-makers are marking the prices up against buying. The gapping up is done rapidly, usually very early in the day's trading, and will certainly have emotional impact. This price action is usually designed to try to suck you into a potentially weak market and into a poor trade, catching stop-losses on the shortside, and generally panicking traders to do the wrong thing
Click to expand...

statistically, fading (shorting in this instance) towards the gap is usually better odds, price will almost certainly revisit at some point, sometimes even before you've been stopped out :) in any case I wouldnt go long in the same direction as a big gap, because that's what they want me to do.

and looking back the red line on my big chart is right around where we are now isnt it? thats the important one.
 
Last edited:
kevsta said:
and looking back the red line on my big chart is right around where we are now isnt it? thats the important one.
Click to expand...

If I understand it correctly, the red line is supposed to mark the top of each bull market within the overall context of the secular bear market. It doesn't make any kind of prediction about what the current value of the Nikkei is, just where it will peak at the end of each 3, 4, 5, 6 7 year cycle.

Of course the gradient of the line could have been very different if it had been drawn to clip the top of the 2008 bull, it would be around 16,000 now, or if it started at the top of the 1991 DCB (so called) it would have been around 10,000 now.

Given that the length of the cycle is unknown and the gradient of the line is somewhat arbitrary, the fact that the current value is +/- a few hundred points of the forecast value is purely co-incidental. The 12 month high is 15,600 the forecast peak was around 13,500 so that's an "error" of more than 15%.
 
The Don said:
If I understand it correctly, the red line is supposed to mark the top of each bull market within the overall context of the secular bear market. It doesn't make any kind of prediction about what the current value of the Nikkei is, just where it will peak at the end of each 3, 4, 5, 6 7 year cycle.

Of course the gradient of the line could have been very different if it had been drawn to clip the top of the 2008 bull, it would be around 16,000 now, or if it started at the top of the 1991 DCB (so called) it would have been around 10,000 now.
Click to expand...

its perfectly valid to draw a parallel line also hitting the 1991 top that clips the 2008 high, and that would indeed come through closer to the top of the 2000+ point stoprun pin we got in May.

but the point is that those pins tend to represent the most emotional moments in markets, but trendlines taken on closing prices (top/bottoms of bars) give both the more general trend, and the line that I am looking for stopruns through. as I said, its a matter of preference, Ive developed mine over time and find trendlines into the future are more useful to me.

try drawing your own and see ;)

The Don said:
Given that the length of the cycle is unknown and the gradient of the line is somewhat arbitrary, the fact that the current value is +/- a few hundred points of the forecast value is purely co-incidental. The 12 month high is 15,600 the forecast peak was around 13,500 so that's an "error" of more than 15%.
Click to expand...

IMO its no coincidence at all that the stoprun went through that line and closed back below within the space of one month.

but apologies me and Netdania can't predict better than a few hundred points over the course of 30+ years, I just draw it as I see it ;)
 
Last edited:
as everybody here is keen on exact predictions, here's one we can watch

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...-says-go-long-eurusd-135-target-128-stop-loss

From Goldman Sach's legendary Thomas Stolper:

Go long EUR/$ with a 1.35 target and a 1.28 stop loss, on better growth in the periphery and large BBoP differential

The Euro area PMI numbers over the last two months point to notable improvement in the periphery. Spain’s manufacturing PMI has risen to 50, which would be consistent with marginally positive growth. In turn, this creates upside risks to 2013 consensus growth expectations, which remain very low at around -1.6% yoy. The Italian PMI also improved. Stabilising growth in both countries could lead to further sovereign spread compression, which has been a positive factor for the EUR in the past.
Click to expand...

EURUSD is currently 1.30059

Goldman Sachs (muppet dept) advise buying EURUSD

Zerohedge..
Trading FX without a Tom Stolper reco to fade is complicated: there is always the risk of losing money. Luckily, that risk is now gone and for all those unsure which pair to short, the man with the 0.001 batting average has just come out with his latest piece of muppet-slaying "research", according to which it is now time to go long the EURUSD, with a 1.35 target and a 1.28 stop loss. You know what to do.
Click to expand...
(short it)

who will be right? :)
 
kevsta said:
IMO its no coincidence at all that the stoprun went through that line and closed back below within the space of one month.

but apologies me and Netdania can't predict better than a few hundred points over the course of 30+ years, I just draw it as I see it ;)
Click to expand...

But have you ? Did you make the prediction back in 1992 or did you instead draw the line at some time in the last couple of years ?

If you feel that this analysis of the pure market movement (ignoring any external factors) gives good predictive results then great. If you can use this information to make money then more power to your elbow but from what I can see is that it doesn't necessarily yield useful information. So far it has predicted the (maybe) top of the recent bull market to within 15% from a few months out. Personally I have no idea whether the market is now going to surge back up to 15,000 and beyond or sink back towards 10,000 but I suspect that the movement will be driven by some combination of greed, fear and economic fundamentals rather than conforming to a line on a graph.
 
Last edited:
PuppyCow said:
Can we say it's not just a headfake yet?
Click to expand...

if it weren't for the fact it looks to be setting up for a short (which I'm going to take if I'm here) then you possibly could. :)

..will keep you informed if I take it

The Don said:
IMO those who suspect that it is a headfake will say that it will only be "not a headfake" if the Nikkei stays above 14,000 in perpetuity :rolleyes:.
Click to expand...

its pretty simple, if its a brief foray above a likely level followed by a rapid retreat below again, then it was order-taking ( a trap)

if the price pushes through, re-tests again, and pushes on, trading above..

(in whatever timescale you are watching ie if its a monthly chart you are looking at, then all moves will play out over months)

..then it wasn't a headfake.
 
kevsta said:
its pretty simple, if its a brief foray above a likely level followed by a rapid retreat below again, then it was order-taking ( a trap)

if the price pushes through, re-tests again, and pushes on, trading above..

(in whatever timescale you are watching ie if its a monthly chart you are looking at, then all moves will play out over months)

..then it wasn't a headfake.
Click to expand...

A headfake played out over a period of months ?

Of course you're free to label things however you please but in a sporting context at least a headfake is a quick move. If we have the Nikkei trading above, say, 13,000 for a few weeks or months before retreating below 13,000 I personally wouldn't call if a headfake (gut feel timing = days) or even a dead cat bounce (gut feel timing = days or a very few weeks).

For the record I have no idea which direction the Nikkei is heading. I suspect that if there isn't any truly exceptional news (for example that QE is stopping tomorrow) then if the Yen starts to slip against the dollar then it will tend to rise, if it starts to rise then the Nikkei will retreat.
 
The Don said:
A headfake played out over a period of months ?

Of course you're free to label things however you please but in a sporting context at least a headfake is a quick move. If we have the Nikkei trading above, say, 13,000 for a few weeks or months before retreating below 13,000 I personally wouldn't call if a headfake (gut feel timing = days) or even a dead cat bounce (gut feel timing = days or a very few weeks).
Click to expand...

you're still missing the italics I think. If its on a monthly chart, a 3 bar headfake pattern is going to be 3 months? it certainly cant be any less than one anyway, can it? refer to the big nikkei chart once again, the last 3 bars took 3 months, the single pin bar itself was a whole month to open at the bottom, surge right to 16000, and sell straight back down to the same position again?

these same patterns play out over every timescale from 2 mins to monthly.

The Don said:
For the record I have no idea which direction the Nikkei is heading. I suspect that if there isn't any truly exceptional news (for example that QE is stopping tomorrow) then if the Yen starts to slip against the dollar then it will tend to rise, if it starts to rise then the Nikkei will retreat.
Click to expand...

me neither, but if I can continue anything like this, it really doesn't matter :D

total.png
 
Puppycow said:
If they want inflation, maybe they should raise the minimum wage, at least a little bit.
Click to expand...
The Don said:
Would people go out and spend any extra money or will they just stick it in the bank ?
Click to expand...
Puppycow said:
Minimum wage workers certainly would!

Don't you think so?
Click to expand...
Just to be complicated, there is always the possibility that some wage earners would use the increase to pay down their debts. This would reduce the money supply and therefore be deflationary.
 
psionl0 said:
Just to be complicated, there is always the possibility that some wage earners would use the increase to pay down their debts. This would reduce the money supply and therefore be deflationary.
Click to expand...

Would it? I suppose that would depend on who the creditor is, wouldn't it? Paying down a debt means that money is transfered from a debtor to a creditor; no money is destroyed unless the creditor takes that money and burns it.
 
Last edited:
Anti Stolper trade goes positive..

kevsta said:
as everybody here is keen on exact predictions, here's one we can watch

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...-says-go-long-eurusd-135-target-128-stop-loss

From Goldman Sach's legendary Thomas Stolper:

Go long EUR/$ with a 1.35 target and a 1.28 stop loss, on better growth in the periphery and large BBoP differential

EURUSD is currently 1.30590 (typo in original corrected - posted 6pm CET 01-July)

Goldman Sachs (muppet dept) advise buying EURUSD

Zerohedge.. (short it)

who will be right? :)
Click to expand...

Update.. in case people wonder about the daily forex manipulation I go on about all the time, I've shown it in the highlighted ovals. this is a text book setup, rarely are they as clear and easy as this.

1372794948-muppets-43kb.png


we only take trades when we see this, where we are expecting to see it, and in line with the smart money cycle. the first and best entry was a standard stoprun through the Asian highs and reverse, but once you've seen the shift bar, you can be reasonably sure you got it right, and it sets up nicely again a bit later..

now ask yourself, is it possible that the best informed people in the markets might have known yesterday, that Merkel's Greece announcement was coming today? Also bear in mind their marketmaking software was selling EURUSD hand over fist to anybody who was buying right up until hammer-time today.

Next target Stolper's stop loss at 1.28 if history is anything to go by
 
unfortunately chaps, Nikkei starting to look maybe possibly a bit headfakey at this point. this is live trading, I've now got the stop losses to break-even on both trades. As I don't really have a view on eventual Nikkei direction from our big red line, so will auto take profit at the first likely bounce point.

the bloody speculators can't help noticing the S&P 1600 floor under pressure at the moment too, and there's more potential downside there than the Nikkei at this point (S&P -5%, Nikkei -14% from recent highs) ..so hopefully target 1580 if not 1550/30.

1372839786-evil-speculators-64kb.png
 
kevsta said:
unfortunately chaps, Nikkei starting to look maybe possibly a bit headfakey at this point.
Click to expand...

I'm not even sure what this means. According to the BBC, the Nikkei 225 is currently down 40 points or so having risen more than 1,000 points in the last week or so. This could be due to:

  • A bit of profit-taking following the recent gains in a volatile market
  • The first part of the reverse headfake which will soon see the Nikkei retreat to 13,000 or so back into the incrasingly narrow trading range proposed by kevsta's analysis
  • Yet another step in the chaotic traindg patterns on the market - the reason why it's so hard to project past trading patterns into future market trends
  • Something else
 
The Don said:
I'm not even sure what this means. According to the BBC, the Nikkei 225 is currently down 40 points or so having risen more than 1,000 points in the last week or so.
Click to expand...

its a good job I dont have to get my news from the BBC isn't it? :D

The Don said:
This could be due to:

  • A bit of profit-taking following the recent gains in a volatile market
  • The first part of the reverse headfake which will soon see the Nikkei retreat to 13,000 or so back into the incrasingly narrow trading range proposed by kevsta's analysis
  • Yet another step in the chaotic traindg patterns on the market - the reason why it's so hard to project past trading patterns into future market trends
  • Something else
Click to expand...

yes, you are correct, it could be due to any or all of those things, we will never know. what we do know is that is that since the cash market closed, the futures (JPN225 above) has dived 400+ points from its recent highs and is very likely heading towards the previous 13600-13400 zone again today, at least intraday anyway.

this is entirely expected market behaviour, (and why I'm now short) - after a breakout, eventually comes a re-test of the broken-through level, again in every timeframe you look at.

we dont know the answer - ie succeed/fail when it gets there - ie bounce and up again, or bounce, re-test and fail [the 2 options] so if we get there I'll just close the trade right around where I expect the next lot of stoprunning will go on (in the opposite direction to my position) and reassess then.

but this is of no interest until we get there and I'm looking for trades at those levels, in the meantime getting a few hundred points out of the slides is my only interest.

I suppose the reason Im showing you this view of things is because you all still seem to think equities are driven by fundamentals. they're not, certainly in the short term anyway, they're driven by people like me, but with a lot more money ;)
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom