Originally Posted by
Ziggurat
ynot, at this point, I really don't even understant what you want to know. I gave you an answer to what I thought you meant by your initial post. You don't seem satisfied by the answer I gave, and now you appear to want to know something else, but I really can't tell what. I don't even have a clue as to why you can't answer whatever it is you want to know yourself.
Sorry I didn’t mean to be vague and confusing. I appreciate the effort you and others have given.
I have no academic qualifications and am pretty much self-taught in what I “know“. I don’t assume that everything I know is actually correct so I like to test it against people that might know better than I do. The problem isn’t coming up with an answer it’s knowing whether the answer is likely to be correct or not. I would rather know I’m wrong than believe I’m right.
Essentially I’m asking if there is some point at which odds become so unlikely they aren’t worthy of serious consideration to be applied to the possibility of actual events. In this case is 1 in 38,383,800 at such a point? It’s not just that 1 in 3,838,380 is more likely, it’s that 1 in 38,383,800 is more unlikely. Does the math of 1 in 38,383,800 alone pretty much negate all other math to do with multiple attempts and draws? When I’m “thinking with my gut” it seems to do so.