Thread: [Merged] 2019-nCoV / Corona virus
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Old 25th January 2020, 09:03 AM   #113
Planigale
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Yeah yeah, excuse my meaningless error.

In the meantime re that desktop model: it's a model of a generic pandemic, not this one. Where did you get the idea that planning was about this coronavirus?

From the link

At a glance, this is not a deadly coronavirus like SARS. It's not a deadly disease like ebola. It's not the deadly influenza pandemic that still hasn't arrived.

Like I said, it's "a really nasty cold no one has immunity to spreading around the world."
It is a model of a coronavirus pandemic. Obviously not the current one as it was modelled last year. The estimated R0* and fatality rates in the model are equivalent to current estimates. This model is the best currently available for an estimate of the impact of this virus unless infection control procedures can limit its spread. More information with more accurate estimates of critical transmission values will become available. The best estimate we have is millions of deaths.

Any action early in an outbreak / epidemic to slow spread is worth while as it spreads the epidemic overtime, a pandemic over 2 years is far easier to manage than over 1 year. It also gives more time for diagnostic, treatment and vaccine development.

*An R0 > 1 means that each case infects more than one person, i.e. it is not self limiting. MERS has an R0 <1, SARS has an R0 = 2-4.
https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/368/bmj.m308.full.pdf

Last edited by Planigale; 25th January 2020 at 09:10 AM.
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