Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger
It is a model of a coronavirus
pandemic. Obviously not the current one as it was modelled last year. The estimated R0
* and fatality rates in the model are equivalent to current estimates. This model is the best currently available for an estimate of the impact of this virus unless infection control procedures can limit its spread. More information with more accurate estimates of critical transmission values will become available. The best estimate we have is millions of deaths.
Any action early in an outbreak / epidemic to slow spread is worth while as it spreads the epidemic overtime, a pandemic over 2 years is far easier to manage than over 1 year. It also gives more time for diagnostic, treatment and vaccine development.
> 1 means that each case infects more than one person, i.e. it is not self limiting. MERS has an R0
<1, SARS has an R0