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Old 13th February 2020, 10:44 AM   #174
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 42,784
Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
Posts, plural, wtf in case it was in another thread.

There is a history of sitting presidents that were challenged in their own party's primaries going on to defeat in the general; Ford, Carter, Bush.

Now, it can be argued that they were challenged because they were weak, but still there is that history.
Bloomberg is very unlikely to actually have an impact in the Dem primary. I could be wrong but I doubt it. He's spending most of his money in CA.
So, he's unlikely to have much impact in Dem primary, unless he weakens the eventual candidate, he might have an impact in the GOP primary. Perhaps, convincing a few reps not to vote in the election by making Trump look weak or just make clear what a ****** republican he actually is.

So, short version, I think the only impact Bloomberg will actually have is to weaken the eventual candidate of the party he's running in by making them look bad or weak as a candidate. I'd rather that be the GOP. As I have said elsewhere, I think the differences are all marginal but on the chance he will have an impact, I'd prefer he were running as a Rep right now.

So, why should he run as Dem?
I'm not sure he should run as a Dem.

The way I see it, a primary fight can sap a frontrunner's momentum, and discourage voters from turning out in the general. That's the situation the Democrats are in right now - a multi-way primary fight.

By contributing to this conflict, especially by having enough money to keep contributing to the bitter end (instead of dropping out early), Bloomberg can do a lot of damage to the Dems.

I'm not sure he could contribute to the same kind of conflict, if he ran as a Republican. Probably the only reason for him to run as a Republican would be that it means one less spoiler in the Democratic contest.
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