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Old 27th June 2020, 08:01 PM   #93
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Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post

The NYT article gives at least one concrete example of how an incomplete picture can create a misleading conclusion.

If a test is positive (and not a false positive) and - later - there are symptoms, you need to associate the two/three records (same patient). Simple, right? But what if the “later” symptoms are “too late” (patient already recovered, screen didn’t probe symptom history carefully enough)?

In the NYT article, the carrier initially thought nothing of the symptoms, just like her usual jet-lag and job stress. For her, they did develop into far more easily recognized covid-19, but what if they hadn’t?

Great article Jean.

It captures the ambiguity of when a mild case of feeling just a bit off rises to the level it would be characterized as a symptom. Also interesting is the palpable fear that pre-symptomatic transmission might be material. I can see the bind governments were in. It just was not something they wanted to hear so went with what they hoped was the case.

But then hope is not a plan.
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